I’ve been a bit tardy updating BludgerTrack this week, but as you can see below, you haven’t been missing much. The moral of the story is that a single Essential Research result is unlikely to change much under the new set-up, particularly when, as present, it accounts for 16 out of 20 available data points. Things may be different when, presumably, Newspoll comes along either tonight or tomorrow night. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Keep reading below the fold for a whole bunch of material on party games, and also note that there’s a separate post below this one for presidential election discussion.
• The Victorian branch of the ALP last week signed off on Kimberley Kitching as Stephen Conroy’s Senate replacement, following the Right faction warlord’s surprise retirement announcement in mid-September. Kitching is a lawyer with Cornwall Stodart, and was formerly a Melbourne City councillor and general manager of the troubled Health Services Union. The royal commission into trade union corruption recommended charges be pursued against Kitching relating to allegations she completed tests for workplace entry permits on behalf of union organisers, but none have been forthcoming in the two years since. Kitching was effectively unopposed in the vote by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, as factional arrangements reserve the seat for the Right. She had won the Right’s backing ahead of Diana Taylor, former Clayton Utz lawyer and a director at the Geelong Football Club, who had support from Richard Marles, federal front-bencher and member for Corio. According to the Herald Sun, other nominees included “Warrnambool city councillor Jacinta Ermacora, former state member for Benalla Denise Allan, Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and 2010 Young Victorian of the Year Wesa Chau”.
Kitching and her husband, Andrew Landeryou – whose VexNews blog trod on many a toe until he retired it in 2013 out of deference to his wife’s political ambitions – are both close to Bill Shorten. Reports have identified widespread criticism of Shorten’s actions within the party from mostly unidentified sources, although Anthony Albanese declined an opportunity to endorse Kitching, saying her preselection was “a matter for the Victorian branch”. Albanese also said there was “a case for ensuring that members have votes in Senate pre-selections” – true of the his own branch in New South Wales, but not in Victoria. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that a Left-sponsored motion at the Victorian party’s state conference next month will propose “giving members a greater say in Senate preselections”.
Labor sources quoted by Katherine Murphy of The Guardian claim Shorten’s backing for Kitching was motivated by a desire to harness HSU numbers as he seeks to plug the gap in his factional network created by Conroy’s departure. James Campbell of the Herald Sun earlier reported that the sudden exit of Conroy was causing ructions in the Right, owing to a power-sharing agreement that had been reached between the secretaries of the Australian Workers Union, National Union of Workers, Transport Workers Union and the power bloc associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It was understood at the time that the TWU vote was a proxy for the broader Conroy group, but it now stood to fall entirely to the union’s secretary, John Berger, leaving Conroy’s other allies out in the cold. Berger’s favoured candidate was Bill Baarini, TWU union officer and former mayor of Hobsons Bay, but Shorten concurred with a view that this would violate the party’s affirmative action rules.
• Further argybargy is unfolding in the Victorian ALP courtesy of a Left faction split between the “National Left”, associated with Anthony Albanese, and the breakaway “Industrial Left” of Victorian Senator Kim Carr. This was formalised after the election when a Left majority resolved to dump Carr from the front bench in favour of Linda Burney, the former New South Wales deputy state leader and newly elected member for Barton. Bill Shorten ensured Carr was accommodated by expanding the front bench, reflecting the importance of the “stability pact” between Carr and the Shorten-Conroy axis in managing affairs the Victorian branch’s affairs. However, the split meant Carr ally Gavin Marshall no longer had Left support to retain his position as Deputy President in the Senate, which has instead gone to Sue Lines from Western Australia.
Marshall last week foreshadowed preselections against Victorian members of the National Left, who include two shadow cabinet members in Jenny Macklin (Jagajaga) and Catherine King (Ballarat) and a junior front-bencher, Andrew Giles (Scullin). As James Massola of Fairfax reports, Marshall confirmed he was organising a challenge to Giles, although no candidate has been identified; claimed there was “discontent in Ballarat”, and that it was a “possibility” he would back a challenge to King; and suggested Macklin could be sure of being spared only because it was “well known that she is retiring”, which a spokesperson for Macklin denied.
• Bob Day, Family First Senator from South Australia, announced last week he would resign from his position after his home building group went into liquidation. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Day hopes to be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, Rikki Lambert, who shares his zeal for a pro-business line on workplace relations. However, he faces opposition from Robert Brokenshire, a Liberal-turned-Family First member of the state parliament, and perhaps also Lucy Gichuhi, a Kenyan-born lawyer who was Day’s running mate at the July 2 election.
• A motion moved by Tony Abbott at yesterday’s state council meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party calling for democratised preselections was reportedly defeated by 246 votes to 174. This was pursued despite the concurrence of Malcolm Turnbull and Mike Baird that the proposed measure should feature among a range of reforms to be considered at a party convention next year, to which state council agreed. Abbott’s proposal would involve plebiscites of party members for all preselections, which is broadly favoured by the party’s hard Right and opposed by the centre Right and the moderates, since it would diminish the importance of the latter’s control of the state executive.
• A poll conducted by Research Now last month for the Australia Institute asked 1426 respondents to list their first and second favoured options for the government to negotiate with in getting legislation through the Senate, which found 54% rating Labor first or second compared with 42% for the Nick Xenophon Team, 32% for the Greens and 29$ for One Nation.
707 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”
Pushback on Nauru:
I like this bit:
Who are the ‘critics of the program’, other than those people with a vested financial or political interest in maintaining absolute secrecy?
As for not giving the Minister the opportunity to respond ‘live’ on the program, I can’t remember 4 Corners EVER doing that. I do recall it often having Lateline cover it.
What is it about right wingers that they complain and whine and whinge and moan about every little thing they don’t perceive to be fair when so much is stacked in their favour to start with? Trump is a perfect example.
Thanks will try, I am on an android tablet ,don’t know if makes any difference?
I think you’re not 100% right on this, Fess.
IMO, he’s staying for the vote on the ABCC Bill, however shameful it would appear for a dodgy construction boss to be voting to enquire into construction unions, while leaving dodgy construction bosses alone.
Self interest? What would an ABCC that could enquire properly into bosses have to say about Bob Day?
So the revered Confessions, supported by Darren Laver, still thinks she has the right to continue to insult posters again this morning on the basis of how often they comment here.
Hopefully some of the reflex driven always-support-confessions mob here are reading her insults and are becoming a bit more insightful about the always-innocent one.
Sky News Australia
9s9 seconds ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Shadow minister Jenny Macklin says women will face a cut of up to $12,000 with new changes to paid parental leave http://snpy.tv/2ev8sUw
Can this guy be anymore creepy?
Tao de Haas
Tao de Haas – @TaodeHaas
#insides Q why Abbott is being destructive bc he wont be leader again? That’s what narcissists do, if I can’t have it I destroy it, simple
3:40 PM – 22 Oct 2016
22 RETWEETS13 LIKES
Good morning all,
I have no deal as yo how the brutal numbers will fall but in a round about way I hope Bob Day does hang around for the ABCC vote.
The government doing deals ( real or imagined, I will leave that to labor ! )with a cross bench senator who has overseen his construction company going bust and leaving thousands of hard working tradies broke. The minds boggles especially when they are chasing his support for legislation that will target construction unions while protecting construction companies.
The legislation might get through but it presents a huge point of attack for labor and the labour movement.
We shall see. Perhaps senator X will get amendments through to protect subbies but whatever he does get will only be window dressing.
Cheers and a good day to all.
Good morning again,
I am clearly in the grumpy ol’ male demographic that some here are accusing confessions of having a go at.
Ad fat as I am concerned confessions is a great poster and long may she comment on what she wants to comment on.
Some of the other grumpy ol’ men here need to take a chill pill and lighten up.
My take anyway.
Cheers and a great day to all.
Agree Doyley. Confessions merely identified a problem that is probably apparent to most.
Did you read Confessions @ 5.15pm yesterday.
If you really support her in that comment then you must support open slather here.
So I take it that to be consistent, you (and now I note Victoria too) won’t be criticising anyone here in future for insulting others.
I wonder can anyone advise where one can purchase the teflon aura that obviously encapsulates everything Confessions writes here.
Or is it that Confessions is really William, and only a select few here have possession of that intell, and know full well not to criticise her.
Anyway, that’s all I propose to say on this occasion.
” Confessions merely identified a problem that is probably apparent to most.”
You are assuming that only one person was targeted, but unfortunately there are a few of us older posters who might feel we were included in the “problem”.
Fess is entitled to have a view, just like everyone else here. You dont have to like it, or you can scroll by and dont read the comments. We are all grown up here. There is so much going on politically, it is really a waste of energy focussing on any comments people dont like.
Good morning to you.
Like everyone here both you and I are entitled to express our opinions and views.
You have expressed yours and I have expressed mine. Long may it continue.
Cheers and a good day to you.
It is only a problem if you want it to be. Take myself for eg. Often, I post several comments in a row, which I have done today. It is my opportunity to do so, as shortly I will be out an wbout for rest of day. I am certain that my binge posting annoys some, but they have the choice to scroll on by.
You are assuming that only one person was targeted, but unfortunately there are a few of us older posters who might feel we were included in the “problem”.’
Lizzie, that is certainly not the way that I read it, and I hope that it was not the intention.
I certainly wouldn’t put you in that category!
I think we’re talking about two different things.
Whatever fess said to peeve Pysclaw is alright by me.
Proof that every post means different things to different readers.
Well, I decided to take one for the team and watched Insiders.
I’m not sure of what the reaction of others may have been, though Cassidy seemed to be struggling to suspend disbelief at Pyne, but I just laughed. Reminded me of Comical Ali or the Black Knight’s “It’s only a flesh wound”.
doyley @ #59 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 12:00 pm
You just went down in my estimation.
I struggle to recall Confessons ever contributing anything original here apart from her insults and abuse of others.
She repeats the same stale observations over and over.
She repeats the opinions of others as if they are her own original thoughts.
That’s about it.
Even more bizarrely, she will attack a comment by another person, and then, some time later, will make much the same comment as if it is something she thought of.
Comical Chrissie…now there’s a thought.
Seems you can’t have the monkey without his organ grinder!
For me if you start categorising people’s opinions with labels you start to assume all in that category speak with the same voice and have the same points of view. The label becomes a heuristic for whats being said and is often used to dismiss the opinion without thought.
On behalf of the Grumpy Ol’ White Lefties (GROWL ers) please dont categorise us 🙂
Before I head out. Are there any lenders who give housing loans for more than 30 year terms?
I was trying to get over my rage (caused by watching the rugby last light) by inhaling lots of chemicals – oiling kitchen benches.
It didnt work initially but I jumped onto a podcats of last Thursdays LNL. I really good one that I found very thought provoking.
I’ve never done one. But they exist.
If Socrates is around….
The LNL episode I linked had a segment on the dumbing down of staff in the knowledge industries caused by company management. He researched many areas including large engineering consultancies. It rung true to my experience in that sector. I would be interested in what Soc has to say (if he/she has time/inclination to listen to it).
Great article in Rolling Stone on the consequences of Trump, win or lose:
‘Trump can’t win. Our national experiment can’t end because one aging narcissist got bored of sex and food. Not even America deserves that. But that doesn’t mean we come out ahead. We’re more divided than ever, sicker than ever, dumber than ever. And there’s no reason to think it won’t be worse the next time.’
Labor has some explaining to do (and needs a kick up the bum):
Hmmm, try again.
BTW, hadn’t watched Insiders for a while and it seems such a sad, tired program these days apart from Mike Bowers. This mornings segment ended with Barnaby Joyce doing an impression of a duck before throwing back to Cassidy. Now there’s a man who enjoys the saying, “Everyone has a right to make an idiot of themselves, and I’m just exercising my right”.
Did the segment suggest the dumbing down was a deliberate strategy by company management or consequences of other corporate decisions?
Do banks need to set up a home loan with the intention of the debt being paid of by a certain time? For example, if someone had a low LVR could they just roll over remaining debt int0 a reverse mortgage upon retirement?
It depends on the legislation the Govt puts up.
The dumbing down is a by product of incompetent company management and poor (fad) company management techniques – Functional stupidity.
Its from a book called “the Stupiduty Paradox” by Andre Spicer. His next book is called Company Bullshit which is on my Christmas list (before work socks and undies even!)
I agree with CTar on that, Nicholas.
ALP said it would support good legislation and oppose bad or that which goes against labor ideals. They have been doing precisely that.
One must also be aware that the amount of legislation the govt is putting through is minimal. 60% of 10 items is 6 … 40% of 50 is 20. Big difference.
The other segment on LNL last Thursday was on Meritocracy including discussing Equality of outcomes vs Equality of opportunity.
simon katich @ #88 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 12:56 pm
You would greatly enjoy reading this book.
I have referred to it previously on PB and provided a link to an Ockham’s Razor program where Erica McWilliam gave a talk which basically summarised her book.
Thanks for that. As someone who is partially complicit in pumping out more and more ill-trained graduates from dumbed-down business degrees into management ranks, I can fully understand this phenomenon.
jenauthor @ #89 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 1:01 pm
Most legislation is just routine stuff that really is non-contentious and no-one opposes. It would be the same whichever party, even Greens, was in power.
That is why number of Bills passed is a poor measure of Govt performance.
bemused @ #1350 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 10:37 am
bemused @ #1350 Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 10:37 am
Credit cards don’t have a term.
A reverse mortgage is a home loan that is repaid when the asset is eventually sold. These are sometimes popular with older people (over 60’s) who are cash poor but have substantial equity in their home. There are no monthly repayments but interest accrues over time.
I don’t write these types of loan because there is sometimes a suspicion that the money is being diverted to other family members rather than for the person borrowing.
Banks make a lot of money by re-writing loans. So what you are proposing is probably possible. But, it will depend upon the value of the asset and the amount to be borrowed. I’d also suggest that an existing home loan at (say) 4% will be a better deal than a reverse mortgage.
Here’s some basic information for those interested.
Thanks Bemused. I shall have a look.
I was privileged to watch an engineering company during the time it re-branded. Watching Engineers turned managers take on management fads and a large rebranding operation was a lesson in how stupid smart people can be.
simon katich @ #96 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 1:07 pm
I always, stubbornly, tried to write and speak plain English without resort to management cliches and jargon. I just find them repulsive.
grimace @ #94 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 1:05 pm
True. I worked in IT largely.
But in client organisations such as Banks women are certainly significantly represented in senior layers of management. Perhaps under-represented still, but that is changing.
Here’s a cracker of an article from Buzzfeed about the dubious methods being employed by the Coal industry.
The example would be someone in middle age selling an existing home and buying a newer more expensive house (or taking out a loan to extend/renovating the existing house). The LVR would be very low but it may not be possible to ensure the loan would be repaid prior to retirement.
I find this interesting in a time of flux in the residential market where many young adults are staying home and parents looking at renovating to create semi self contained areas of the family house. I am even coming across couples wanting to develop or extend with the idea to later share the house with friends or to rent. Banks will not be able to take this potential rental income into account in planning the loan to finance the redevelopment or moving to a bigger house.