Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. DTT is one of the worst nutty conspiracy theorists here. If it’s not 600 Senators with Ebola by Christmas, it’s Hillary Clinton has been diagonsed with leproacy and died a few months ago!

    If she descends into 9-11 conspiracies, then at least she will be banned by William, given his strong distaste for that.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    This is serious shit! Some of the bucket of deplorables are predicting riots in the event of a Clinton win. Nice work Donald!
    John Hewson says that there’s an obvious way for Malcolm Turnbull to beat the politics of fear: leadership.
    Michael Pascoe says Ardent/Dreamworld failed at every step but one.–except-deciding-to-reopen-20161027-gscgat.html
    It was a lesson in crisis mismanagement from the company. Google.
    And already it’s coming out that police are focussing on potential breaches of the Workplace Helath and Safety Act. Google.
    Saul Estlake reckons a Trump presidency could lead to economic disasters.
    How long have you got to live? Here’s all the latest information.
    Australians’ average credit score is falling. What are we headed for?
    I like Qantas’s use of the term “small adjustments” here!
    Channels 7 and 9 to battle it out in court over the popularity of their breakfast programs. Who gives a toss?
    Paul McGeough writes that the Republicans are not waiting for the election -they are turning upon each other already! It’s a circular firing squad.
    Trump has caused a serious rift between women and men within the Republican Party. Hardly surprising.

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Will America’s Fox News change?
    Trump says he’d run the country like his business. That’s hardly a plus!
    Trump faces the prospect of being the biggest presidential election loser of all time but still won’t say if he’ll accept the result.
    The perils of a divided government in the US. Let’s hope Trump does so badly that the gridlock can be broken.
    The ghost of Kerry Packer has wise words for Channel Nine: ‘Call the bloody cricket!’
    Labor is still going in hard on Brandis as they insist on being told whether or not the Solicitor-General gave advice on the anti-terror legislation currently before parliament.
    Now it’s the practices of the novated lease industry that is coming under scrutiny. The spivs are everywhere!
    Jess Irvine tells us that soon Australia will become the developed world’s worst off when it comes to paid parental leave.
    Another Turnbull back flip on the way?
    Steph Peatling reckons MPs need a biology lesson over their apparent assumption of seven months pregnancies.

  4. Section 3 . . .

    The spiv developer that illegally demolished the Carlton pub is in major damage control.
    Michelle Grattan says that Morrison has opened the housing affordability crisis but she wonders if he can control it.
    Warwick Smith says that Morrison’s “fix” on housing affordability is no more than a sop to his party’s big development donors.,9640
    Surely the pious Bob Day would have known his company was cactus for a long time before the last election. He’s $35m in the red already.
    We haven’t seen the end of Islamic State even though it is losing the war in Mosul writes Waleed Aly.
    It’s Spivs Central as major charities think again about how they raise money.
    Spivs everywhere! The Victorian government is getting serious about the labour hire industry. Now it’s your turn Michaelia.

  5. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir’s got some bad news for Turnbull and his close associates.
    David Rowe has a beauty on what’s under Barnaby’s bed.

    Andrew Dyson has a good snip at Soapy.
    Ron Tandberg with all roads leading to Rome.
    Mark Knight couldn’t resist the chauffeured pets story.
    Bill Leak and his employer just won’t let go!

  6. “Hyperbole does not assist in making a valid case. See DTT for example”

    Don’t know what you’re talking about. I haven’t been hyperbolic at all. I’ve made my argument based on first hand observations and experiences in previous comments if you care to go back and read them. I don’t really have anything else to say on the subject.

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