Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Shellbell
    Yep and I support that.
    I was involved in a death which required collecting a body while the deceased’s partner was present. We did our best to console her but it was awful. She was present at the coronial, as we were, and my view is that it was good for her because it helped her come to terms with her partner’s death.
    But it does not help the families of the deceased, or anyone else, for coroners to be making bizarre recommendations.

  4. Boerwar,
    Just a taster from Rundle in today’s Crikey. A fascinating read and well-advised for anyone with an interest in Trump and the outcome of the US election.

    I have just finished doing exactly that!

    I can see where Rundle is going but am still unable to square it with the practicalities of a well-oiled ‘Get Out the Vote’ operation from the Democrats.

    What also interests me is the fact that no one has squared the Trump circular paradigm that, if the system is rigged against him, why the hell bother turning out to vote!?! He’s never going to win in a rigged system after all! He says so himself. Therefore, why does he try so hard to succeed? For, you have to say that anyone who is making so many campaign stops and a relentless effort with surrogates around the country and in the media, is actually trying to succeed in a system he spends day after day saying is rigged. In other words, what he is saying doesn’t square away with what he is doing.

    Not even Rundle has made that obvious point yet. : )

  5. Coroners should make the family of the deceased feel like the most important people in the court.
    If there is an institution which can be assigned some blame for a death, the coroner will ordinarily not hesitate so to find.

  6. boerwar @ #1051 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 8:47 pm

    Shellbell
    Yep and I support that.
    I was involved in a death which required collecting a body while the deceased’s partner was present. We did our best to console her but it was awful. She was present at the coronial, as we were, and my view is that it was good for her because it helped her come to terms with her partner’s death.
    But it does not help the families of the deceased, or anyone else, for coroners to be making bizarre recommendations.

    Even worse when they make findings contrary to the evidence to cover up failings of government bodies.

  7. C@tm
    1. I am not at all sure that Trump is 100% sane.
    2. Trump may well be making money out of the election.
    3. There is a view that Trump may be planning a post-election money making venture: sort of think of a Fox-like comms venture.

  9. Shellbell

    ‘Coroners should make the family of the deceased feel like the most important people in the court.
    If there is an institution which can be assigned some blame for a death, the coroner will ordinarily not hesitate so to find.’

    Again, no problem, IMO.

  10. shellbell
    There is a downside: managers avoid risks. So do insurers. Lots of community events that used to happen routinely 30 years ago no longer happen because they are uninsurable or the premiums are prohibitive.
    Ditto, 40 years ago you could give birth in far more hospital places than you can now.

  11. I am not at all sure that Trump is 100% sane.

    I’m not sure about 100% sane either, but it’s clear he has a serious FIGJAM complex to the point he has zero self awareness whatsoever. As to making money off the campaign, it was reported months ago that he was forcing the RNC pay for everything associated with his campaign and not using any of his own money at all.

  12. Player 1

    You say thr Dreamworld deaths were “entirely preventable”.

    What does that add to the discussion?

    By definition, every accidental death is entirely preventable. Car accidents, work accidents, recreation accidents, sport accidents ……. if the precipitating circumstances had been different ie prevented then there’d have been no accident.

    With regard to Dreamworld, we are indeed fortunate to have you here, knowing about what caused it before even the on-site investigators do. Well done.

    Now I understand how you knew so much about the Census, and what happened. The Senate Enquiry wasted its time calling the various witnesses ……. they should’ve just called you.

  13. Maybe the owners of Dreamworld were hoping for the park to be open again as soon as possible to avoid too much loss of revenue??They always say money comes before safety nowadays.

  16. Maybe the owners of Dreamworld were hoping for the park to be open again as soon as possible to avoid too much loss of revenue??

    I’d say definitely, plus moving on from the media attention they’ve accrued.

  17. The problem with coroners is their failure to control the proceedings before them so they get on with it.
    Dreamworld does not appear a difficult enquiry but it will meander.
    If we were in the UK, the inquiry would open next week. Now that is a formality but it offers some sense of purpose.
    In NSW, we are talking 2018, maybe and then the coroner will let anyone and everyone who wants to appear a guernsey. Why? Most of it is just insurers mining for info for when the civil claims come on.
    And while the coroner is vacillating, the police will stay any prosecution and WorkCover will be prosecuting some pissy matters.
    And then once it starts, it will hit meander mode super quick.

  18. There are plenty of companies that ignore/play down concerns regarding safety,especially if it going to affect their bottom line. Dreamworld is just the tip of the iceberg.

  19. My only take on the water tragedy is to ask what is the purpose of public risk insurance, if not to recognise the possibility of death/injury in areas which are actually designed to give the paying participants a thrill? – The thrills are certainly within tried and tested parameters but with the recognition by both paying participant and provider there is a possibility that things could go wrong.
    Things obviously have gone very wrong in the theme park.
    What the media wants, under the guise of concern, is to seek blame, and where possible exploit this by finding some bete noire to hammer. In looks as though this is to be some well-paid, female executive who it will be easy for the media to demonise.
    I am a cynic when it comes to this kind of stuff. I doubt the media operatives give a stuff about the human suffering (hope I am wrong, but I doubt it) but are keen to exploit the “hang the guilty one high” theme for general public consumption.

  20. Michael Pascoe has some common sense observations on the Dreamworld accident.
    Do read the whole article. It is well worth it.

    Ardent has failed at every step over the Dreamworld tragedy – except deciding to reopen

    Ardent Leisure copped stick in many quarters over its desire to reopen the Dreamworld amusement park on Friday, three days after four people died on the Thundering Rapids ride. It might be the only right thing the company wanted to do.

    Never mind questions about the appropriateness of CEO Deborah Thomas collecting a $843,000 bonus – in my opinion, the only way she can keep her job is with the excuse that she will have learned a great deal from such monumental failure and thereby become a worthwhile CEO.

    Ardent has failed at every hurdle since the tragedy. It appears to have been totally unprepared for fatalities on its amusement rides. There is no excuse for that.

    With the best will in the world and all appropriate care, there will still be an accident sometime given enough millions of customers over enough years. The complexity of people and machines and unknowns means things find a way of going wrong. A coronial inquiry will eventually determine whether this was a one-in-30 million accident, something for which no person can fairly be blamed, or a preventable tragedy in which human beings and their systems failed.

    We live with this reality daily, the most obvious example being the risks we take every time we get into a motor vehicle, or climb a ladder, or go under a general anaesthetic, or have a swim, or step barefoot on a bee. Sometimes each of those things end up killing people and each of them is statistically much more lethal than Dreamworld’s rides.

    Part of the reason for our collective sorrow over the Dreamworld deaths is that they are rare. It would also be sad if four people are killed in a car crash tomorrow, but if we don’t know the individuals or there is not some particularly newsworthy circumstance – newlyweds, a young family, lottery winners – their deaths would barely register, if at all.

    A bigger reason for the Dreamworld mass sorrow is the incongruity of tragedy at a fun park, and at a particular park that so many millions of us have visited, on a ride that so many millions of us have ridden. I have, with my children. There is an emotional reflex that says “it could have been us”. That’s understandable, but not rational. We rarely think it as we hurtle past the crucifixes and bunches of wilted or plastic flowers that have become the commonplace background of our roads.
    —
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/ardent-has-failed-at-every-step-over-the-dreamworld-tragedy–except-deciding-to-reopen-20161027-gscgat.html

  21. If the media did any proper investigating they could probably uncover dozens of companies that have safety concerns that are swept under the carpet.

  23. BB

    As the envelope expands, and nothing happens it becomes accepted lore that nothing would have ever happened.

    —————–

    The Challenger space shuttle disaster being a classic example of the consequences of that lunacy.

    The discrepancy between the (sadly accurate) assessment of that risk from NASA’s engineers, and the public claims from NASA’s senior executive managers about that risk, was several orders of magnitude.

    Feynman’s closing line in his dissenting appendix to the investigative report on the disaster says it all:

    “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”

  24. BW
    The Bob Carr inspired tort reforms of 2002 were designed to meet those concerns. However, more likely than not Bob’s hatred of lawyers for doing Barrie Unsworth over in NSW in 1988 were latched upon by insurers who will pay less to the family members who viewed those horrors on Tuesday than would have been the case had those reforms not passed.

  26. Boerwar,
    I am not at all sure that Trump is 100% sane.I have just been having a discussion with my son about the benefits to one’s overall sanity of small bouts of insanity. ‘Letting off steam’ for the mind he characterised it as. : )

    However, when it comes to Trump I believe that he is perfectly sane but what he is suffering from is the ‘New York Disease’ of perpetual ennui. If you make it in New York, and, for better or worse, you have to agree that Trump has made it to the top of the tree there, along with Murdoch who he seems to be having a jousting match with in attempting to subvert Rupert’s jewel, Fox News, for the Donald’s own ends-the ultimate power play!

    So, the ennui needs to be fed a constant diet of satisfying conquests. To which end there is only one last Everest to climb in America, that of the Presidency. So a man who is renowned as a preternatural sexual predator had probably war-gamed years ago that Hillary would be the Democratic nominee and so calculated that this woulkd be his ultimate victory before he dies. Vanquishing America’s Uber Feminist for the job she has coveted all her life.

    So I don’t think Donald Trump is insane at all. Just insanely driven. And not in a good way. As are a lot of the people he surrounds himself with. An absolute alignment of some very dark stars.

  27. I have a running gag going on PB where I blame national and global problems on high sugar/ low fibre diets or globalisation or reality TV (you may have missed it).

    Well, November 8th sees all three coming in together off the long run. Got your box on?

    Which reminds me……
    *** John Snow hit Glen Howarth in the box with the fifth ball of an over causing some distress to the batsman and several minutes delay. When play resumed, Johnners said ‘Howarth takes his guard…. one ball left’. ***

  28. shellbell @ #1067 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    The problem with coroners is their failure to control the proceedings before them so they get on with it.
    Dreamworld does not appear a difficult enquiry but it will meander.
    If we were in the UK, the inquiry would open next week. Now that is a formality but it offers some sense of purpose.
    In NSW, we are talking 2018, maybe and then the coroner will let anyone and everyone who wants to appear a guernsey. Why? Most of it is just insurers mining for info for when the civil claims come on.
    And while the coroner is vacillating, the police will stay any prosecution and WorkCover will be prosecuting some pissy matters.
    And then once it starts, it will hit meander mode super quick.

    Investigations open very promptly in Victoria, but once opened they proceed at a glacial pace unless it is a high profile case. They are also usually conducted by an ordinary plod with no specialised knowledge.

    In medico-legal cases, the solicitors for the hospital and doctors will offer to help the plod by gathering witness statements and the plod will gratefully accept the offer.

    At that point we can give up as the control of the investigation has been outsourced to the legal representatives of a party with a strong vested interest. They will control who makes a statement and control what goes in it, often preparing the statements for the witnesses to sign.

    It is an absolute travesty orchestrated by a ‘profession’ with no ethics or morals.

    Cretins Coroners play along with this farce.

  32. Cupidstunt

    Workcover sounds piss weak in QLD.

    It was not a coincidence that virtually ALL the deaths caused by the ‘killer pink batts’ happened in Qld. Their OH&S law enforcement in the building industry is a farce.

  33. poroti @ #1082 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Cupidstunt

    Workcover sounds piss weak in QLD.

    It was not a coincidence that virtually ALL the deaths caused by the ‘killer pink batts’ happened in Qld. Their OH&S law enforcement in the building industry is a farce.

    It was the aluminium foil insulation what done it in Qld.
    Oh… that and faulty wiring to start with and metal staples penetrating a live wire.
    There was a good chance it would bite someone sooner or later.

  37. It was not a coincidence that virtually ALL the deaths caused by the ‘killer pink batts’ happened in Qld. Their OH&S law enforcement in the building industry is a farce.

    I thought the same myself about this.

  39. DTT and ABC’s Zoe Daniels apparently still think Michigan is in play. Utter bullshit.

    In other news, Clinton is expanding her lead.

    [Clinton Lead Expands to 14 Points In New Poll

    October 26, 2016
    By Taegan Goddard
    659 Comments
    A new AP-GfK poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points nationally, 51% to 37%, followed by Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%.

    2016 Campaign
    Read More »

    No, the Presidential Race Isn’t Tightening

    October 26, 2016
    By Taegan Goddard]

    http://www.politicalwire.com

  41. Darren

    1. You are unable to read. How sad. I said Michael Moore thinks Michigan is in play and I said I did not know.
    2. Not sure what you are taking but this from much beloved Nate may bring your high down a notch. Have someone read it to you – perhaps with explanations
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-the-presidential-race-tightening/ =

    3. Not sure what crazed poll you are thinking (actually I do but 14% seems high) of but three tracking polls released today show Clinton ahead by 6, 2 and 0 to give a realistic average of 2.7. Good but not unassailable.

    4. It is all about the states. They are starting to settle into patterns now. Certainly Michigan looks secure for Clinton, which probably guarantees her victory. However Ohio seems solidly Trump and Florida a toss up.

  42. Confessions
    If it were not for the prospect of WWIII, I would agree sensible people should vote Hillary. Trouble is WWIII “Trumps” just about everything else for sane people. Not much point in worrying about SSM or Global warming or what Brandis did, or how many women Trump groped if the bombs are flying.

    For those of you who think I am scaremongering I suggest you actually READ. The situation is right now probably more dangerous than the Cuban crisis. Wake up . Russian warships in the Mediterranean ready for battle, UK troops heading to Poland, Russia showing off a missile that could annihilate whole states and NATO playing bluff.

  43. Re Batts, as I recall, three of the deaths happened in Queensland as a result of what might be called industrial accidents, including what must be a rookie mistake using metal staples near powerlines. The other was in Western Sydney in 40 degree heat. Be that as it may, the Liberal-National-Murdoch coalition was happy to exploit it to advance their agenda.

  45. Re Hillary, she’s not the Messiah and she’s not Mahatma Ghandi, nor is she Barrack Obama. She is a Washington insider and a wily politician. But I think that we can rely on her not to do anything too stupid with regard to Russia or any other situation. To paraphrase ‘genetic Republican’ P.J. O’Rourke, she might be wrong anout ‘everything’, but it’s within normal parameters.

  48. Steve777:

    As Bill Maher would say, say what you like about Hillary, but when she rubs you the wrong way it’s just an expression.

  50. daretotread @ #1092 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    Confessions
    If it were not for the prospect of WWIII, I would agree sensible people should vote Hillary. Trouble is WWIII “Trumps” just about everything else for sane people. Not much point in worrying about SSM or Global warming or what Brandis did, or how many women Trump groped if the bombs are flying.
    For those of you who think I am scaremongering I suggest you actually READ. The situation is right now probably more dangerous than the Cuban crisis. Wake up . Russian warships in the Mediterranean ready for battle, UK troops heading to Poland, Russia showing off a missile that could annihilate whole states and NATO playing bluff.

    That is just nuts.
    The Russians are sending what seems to be a fairly clapped out aircraft carrier with some second rate aircraft on it to the Mediterranean, presumably to assist Assad in Syria. It is accompanied by a few escorts. They do have a naval base there so presumably will dock there or sit off the coast.
    As for the rest, nothing really new in any of that.

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