Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  4. How low can Turnbull’s netsat go? As I said in the previous thread, it is difficult to see in the short to medium term anything much happening that can turn things around for the government or Turnbull. Yes, they are likely to get some key legislation through, but it is hardly legislation that voters are screaming from the rooftops for. Meanwhile, not even the msm are able, in spite of their best efforts, to shield them from their incompetence, which is on display daily.

  5. People aren’t engaged, which is entirely reasonable.
    A continuation of the trend, next one may be 53-47.
    Net Sats are revealing and at this stage significant.
    Ppm of 42-32 is not bad for Bill.

  10. Preferred PM is one of those polling mechanics I don’t understand the point of. About the only time the Opposition Leader gets a higher PPM than the incumbent is if the incumbent is about to get epically kicked out of office.

  11. [Cupidstunt
    Monday, October 24, 2016 at 11:23 pm
    Turnbull as popular as Bemused is on this blog.]
    The opinions of f***wits have never troubled me.

  13. I have absolutely no wish to see Brandis in a “rewarding” sinecure in London, yet that is spoken of as Turnbull’s only option. Why should Australia be represented by His Lying Pomposity?

    I hate the way that wrongdoing takes so long to be punished and in the meantime costs taxpayers millions. Look at Kathy Jackson.

  14. Lizzie

    Why should Australia be represented by His Lying Pomposity?

    Alex has this adequately covered already in London.

    George could be our ‘man’ in Windhoek or Bermako (I’m sure a pith helmet would suit George to a tee).

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I can recommend today’s Cartoon Corner.

    Mark Kenny looks at the Brandis/Gleeson cage match. It was never a fair fight he says. A good summary.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/george-brandis-v-justin-gleeson-anything-but-a-fair-fight-in-a-selfmade-crisis-20161024-gs9geb.html
    The Australian says the heat is now on Brandis after Gleeson’s resignation. Google.
    national-affairs/heat-on-george-brandis-after-solicitorgeneral-quits/news-story/c65572893435a89d3357b3caad4b4678
    Michelle Grattan on Gleeson’s parting broadside.
    https://theconversation.com/solicitor-general-resigns-with-a-parting-broadside-at-brandis-67559
    Laura Tingle writes that Brandis won the battle but has utterly lost the war. Google.
    /news/brandis-vs-gleeson-ag-wins-the-battle-and-utterly-loses-the-war-20161024-gs9hgl
    Arguably this effort by Barnaby Joyce is more concerning than Brandis’s narcissistic naughtiness. It was good work by Joel Fitzgibbon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/agriculture-department-head-paul-grimes-questioned-barnaby-joyces-integrity-days-before-being-sacked-20161024-gs9b67.html
    Our FTA with the EU looks to be largely in jeopardy. Never mind, Steve Ciobo will sort it out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-eu-free-trade-agreement-at-risk-after-canada-deal-falls-through-20161024-gs9o6f.html
    Duterte advances from murdering people to murdering Asia-Pacific alliances.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/rodrigo-duterte-has-turned-the-tables-in-the-asiapacific-now-china-is-winning-20161024-gs9bky.html
    Coalition carry-on dogs the Prime Minister who fell to earth. Google.
    opinion/columnists/phillip-hudson/coalition-carryon-dogs-the-prime-minister-who-fell-to-earth/news-story/215580308d59d518f5cf6c95122423f2
    The second of Peter Hartcher’s three part essay on a post US election world.
    http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2016/us-election-impact-australia/populism/
    37 people shot over the weekend in Chicago but it’s not at all exceptional.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-gun-violence-37-people-shot-in-one-weekend-in-chicago-20161024-gs9ny6.html
    I thought QandA was pretty good last night with a distinct lack of whiny vitriol.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-arthur-sinodinos-refuses-to-rule-out-tony-abbott-becoming-pm-again-20161024-gs9ndm.html
    John Passant writes on guns for votes, the ABCC and double dissolution triggers and how the government is “on the nose”.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/guns-for-votes-abcc-and-double-dissolution-triggers,9634
    Paul McGeough says Trump has more in common with Hitler than slogans.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-and-adolf-hitler-had-more-in-common-than-slogans-20161024-gs98kl.html

  17. Section 2 . . .

    These VET figures are appalling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/just-20-per-cent-of-nsw-vocational-students-graduate-in-three-years-20161024-gs97v5.html
    Greg Jericho shows us how the unemployment rate is hiding what is happening in the economy. Read it and weep.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2016/oct/25/how-the-unemployment-rate-hides-what-is-happening-in-the-economy
    A memo to the Fizza – always bring a gun to a fist-fight.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/memo-to-the-fizza-always-bring-a-gun-to-a-fist-fight,9631
    Stephen Koukoulas on Costello’s Future Fund fiddle.
    https://thekouk.com/item/412-peter-costello-and-the-future-fund-fiddle.html
    Steph Peatling asks whether anyone n the Coalition has EVER met a pregnant woman.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/has-anyone-in-the-coalition-ever-actually-met-a-pregnant-woman-20161023-gs8zeu.html
    The fading mining boom makes WA the country’s worst economy.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/fading-mining-boom-makes-western-australia-the-countrys-worst-economy-20161024-gs98no.html
    Will car sharing become a thing of the future for inner cities?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydneys-inner-city-outpaces-san-francisco-in-car-sharing-use-study-20161024-gs91lr.html
    The CA Royal Commission is told again that prestigious Liberal incubator schools put reputation ahead of student welfare. It’s going to be a very interesting report from the commission when it comes out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/prestigious-schools-accused-of-placing-reputation-above-student-welfare-at-royal-commission-20161024-gs99qo.html
    Richard Ackland has his say after the 4 Corners program on Nauru and the reactions it evoked. It’s a very good explanation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/24/nauru-detention-the-abc-and-us-putting-misconceptions-about-australia-and-refugees-to-rest

  18. Section 3 . . .

    “The polls are phoney and we’re winning”, Trump tells his supporters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/the-truth-is-that-were-winning-says-donald-trump-20161024-gs9oaf.html
    After the election let’s just forget that Trump happened.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/after-the-election-is-over-lets-just-forget-donald-trump-happened-20161023-gs8whq.html
    But John Birmingham sees hidden danger after a Trump defeat. Frightening really.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/blunt-instrument/the-hidden-danger-that-comes-after-donald-trump-loses-to-hillary-clinton-20161024-gs9npd.html
    This guy reckons Mike Pence is even more dangerous than Trump.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/donald-trump-isnt-the-most-dangerous-man-on-the-ticket-mike-pence-is-20161024-gs8zqr.html
    This SMH editorial (rightfully) gets stuck into Morrison after his speech on housing affordability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/scott-morrison-ignores-the-average-property-punter-20161023-gs8wjk.html
    And so does Andrew Street!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/house-prices-cant-keep-going-up-if-we-want-affordable-housing-20161024-gs92kd.html
    What Morrison should have said about housing affordability.
    \http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2016/10/24/what-morrison-should-have-said/
    Peter Martin tells us about the “convenient collapse” of the housing affordability inquiry may have prevented suggestions not in line with the government’s ideology from coming out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalitions-housing-affordability-inquiry-scrapped-amid-growing-market-fears-20161024-gs9jbo.html
    Nicola Sturgeon says her meeting with Theresa May over the Brexit was “deeply frustrating”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/24/nicola-sturgeon-says-brexit-meeting-was-deeply-frustrating
    Bob Day has the gall to return to the Senate chamber to vote for the ABCC when instead he should be appearing before a similar organisation! But he IS a good Christian. Let’s hope that it is Rob Brokenshire that gets to replace him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senator-bob-day-to-return-to-senate-chamber-for-abcc-vote-despite-resignation-announcement-20161024-gs9iv0.html

  19. Section 4 . . .

    Shorten tells Turnbull got get up off his bum and hasten the NBN rollout in WA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/wa-news/bill-shorten-urges-pm-to-get-off-his-bottom-and-speed-up-was-nbn-rollout-20161024-gs9lx4.html
    The Liberal Party certainly attracts some “interesting” types.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/controversial-former-liberal-party-candidate-sherry-sufi-scores-one-win-doesnt-rule-out-comeback-20161023-gs8v2u.html
    How Lebanese authorities blew the lid on botched60 Minutes child recovery
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/10/24/60-minutes-sally-faulkner/

  20. Scientists at the Institute for the Study of LNP Politicians have made a discovery.

    Scientists have pinpointed the brain region that sanctions casual fibsters’ graduation into outright frauds.

    “When we lie for personal gain, our amygdala produces a negative feeling that limits the extent to which we are prepared to lie,” explains senior author Dr. Tali Sharot. “However, this response fades as we continue to lie, and the more it falls the bigger our lies become. This may lead to a ‘slippery slope’ where small acts of dishonesty escalate into more significant lies.”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2016/10/24/why-lying-becomes-easier-over-time-its-a-slippery-slope-study-finds/#1afa6a4328ab

  21. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Just have a look at this one from David Pope!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    David Rowe does Morrison over beautifully.

    Cathy Wilcox and reporting on Nauru.

    More from Cathy on Trump and the prospect of losing the election.

    Sean Leahy on Queensland’s problem with trains.

    At the US polling booth with Peter Broelman.

    Alan Moir on what Trump is doing to US democratic tradition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
    Matt Golding with an absolute winner on what a Trump victory would mean for Australia! MUST SEE.

    Mark Knight on the parting of the ways between our top two legal officers.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c6bc63c5b517cf9e5ff071991104963a?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka on Morrison’s sales pitch to the states on housing affordability.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3645818bc519f58c93cc87a91236995e

  22. Sean Kelley just told Marius Benson on Newsradio that Brandis may be moved on, eventually, but not so soon as to make it look like Mark Dreyfus and Labor had scored a high profile scalp. So look a few months down the track for that one.

  23. I don’t know how the States are going to respond to Scotty Morrison the Dog of a Treasurer’s latest unimaginative solution to Housing Unaffordability of reducing Stamp Duty. For a start, where would the NSW and Victorian economies be now if they weren’t able to roll in Stamp Duty Revenue?

  25. More to the point, removing stamp duty won’t solve the problem.

    Anyone buying a house has factored stamp duty into the costs; the sellers know that; the house is worth what its sale price is plus stamp duty; remove stamp duty, and the buyer puts up the price of the house accordingly, and pockets the extra profit.

    Great for the Liberals’ spiv mates, of course.

  26. Good Morning

    Good luck to the LNP trying to blame Labor for this one. Most are not buying

    NickMcKim: Justin Gleeson SC has been run out of office by a government with no regard for proper process or the rule of law.

    Gleeson showed exactly how smart he is by resigning on the day of the 100 year anniversary of his office. The comments at the dinner on the situation have gotten good media coverage and have left the government out on a limb 🙂

    Wonderful polls. I expect to see the infighting to continue as this incompetent mob keeps trying to deny facts to defend their neo liberal ideology that is driving voters away.

    They have not moved away from the 2014 budget policies and the voting public sees them doubling down on it and as the polls show are viewing that accordingly.

  27. PM Malcolm Abbott doing his bit for the Gina demographic.

    Turnbull government moves to shut court doors on anti-coal activists

    Mr Turnbull said the government would reconsider tougher proposals to head off vexatious environmental actions in the courts, first put up by Tony Abbott as prime minister but rejected in the Senate.

    Malcolm Turnbull yesterday said he was worried about “very systematic, very well-funded campaigns” against mining after The Weekend Australian revealed a highly orchestrated group of Australian activists was secretly funded by US foundations with links to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign chairman, John Podesta.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/turnbull-government-moves-to-shut-court-doors-on-anticoal-activists/news-story/4ea70a5a594699286b880152fcb3cbca

  28. Poroti

    I thought the LNP was all the way with the USA. Not a good four years coming up for the climate deniers when the campaign director is funding to close down coal.

  29. Thanks BK – Rowe is great as usual.

    I wonder how an Australian government, state or federal, would go if they tried to privatise a major highway and turn it into a toll road? I suggest the answer would be – no fucking way, because a toll gate is completely in your face and can’t be disguised.
    On the other hand, they privatise energy and communications networks and the punters hardly offer up a squeak.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/ausgrid-sale-great-for-everyone-except-consumers-39841

  31. Poroti

    Mr Turnbull said the government would reconsider tougher proposals to head off vexatious environmental actions in the courts, first put up by Tony Abbott as prime minister but rejected in the Senate.

    Another stupid move by Turnbull, specifically designed to alienate the remnants of his latte sipping base.

  32. Always nice to wake up to a beautiful set of numbers.

    I’ve asked the question before, but can has ANY government won not a single poll after election? Even Julia managed one or two early if I remember correctly.

    This is just a shit imitation of a barely functioning far west Queensland shire. It would be hilarious if it wasn’t doing real damage to our country.

    And is there a better avatar of this onmishabolic clusterfuck than one Senator George Brandis? Like this government if his competence was only inversely proportion to his delusions of adequacy he’d (and they’d) probably get by. But seeing as it’s proportional to the cube of his (their) arrogance, and said arrogance is virtually limitless, well…

    Despite the pain, the best long term result for Australia might very well be the deep dark recession that this mob seem intent on creating hitting us in the next two years so that finally the populace wakes up to them and gives them the mother of all electoral hidings. These buffoons don’t deserve defeat. They deserve utter humiliation.

  33. On the third party restrictions of protests. That could fall foul of freedom of political expression. I seem to remember the Tasmanian government trying to set up similar legislation that got dropped due to action by Bob Brown moves to take to the High Court.

  34. Malcolm just can’t win in a fight with Abbott. If he shows some balls and takes him on, it will just show the fissures in the Govt. If he does nothing he will look like, well, a Malcolm Turnbull. Popcorn time.
    If Georgie is sent to London I can’t imagine he would last long after Labor took office. He’s one dickhead they would love to ping.

  36. Trog Sorrenson

    It would be a stern test of faith for those in the press gallery who are followers of the Adoration of the Magnificent Malcolm movement.

  37. Another stupid move by Turnbull, specifically designed to alienate the remnants of his latte sipping base.

    At 29% Katherine Murphy would be about the only one of those left on board surely.

    By pandering to the loons he’ll have kept some of the base onside, but it won’t be long until he’ll look back on the days of 29% approval as ‘the good old days’. Perhaps it was the lower starting expectations, but I don’t think even Abbott was shown up quite as ruthlessly as completely out of his depth by the job so shortly after taking office. The only people looking more stupid than Turnbull are those who thought he would be good at being PM (hi Elizabeth Farrelly et al).

  38. The difference between Grattan and Tingle.

    Grattan:

    When Gleeson appeared before the inquiry, he received a hard time from government senators, in particular Queensland Liberal Ian Macdonald, who seemed openly contemptuous during his questioning.

    Tingle:

    The Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull promised to restore confidence in the public service.

    But he has been prepared to let two of his more profoundly oafish senators eviscerate independent statutory officers from the safety of a Senate committee.

  39. Morning all.
    I see the PPM significant in this case purely because of Turnbull and why he was elected leader. To be the progressive face for the government, while they could continue implementing their policies.
    A key goal of the ALP would have been to erode this.

  40. On the third party restrictions of protests. That could fall foul of freedom of political expression. I seem to remember the Tasmanian government trying to set up similar legislation that got dropped due to action by Bob Brown moves to take to the High Court.

    Perhaps the timing of this dog’s reanimation and their loss of a competent SC are not coincidental?

  41. Let me try and understand the logic of the Coalition. Yes, an enterprise that is likely to end in tears, but nevertheless…

    So all well and good for the Mining Industry and the Gambling Industry, and, back in the day, the Tobacco Industry, and when Labor are in power and trying to introduce Volumetric pricing of Alcohol, the Alcohol Industry, to engage in VERY well-funded campaigns against the government, but should Australian Citizens wish to engage in a campaign to warn other Australian Citizens of the damage to our precious environment that one of the above industries is engaging in, that’s going to be outlawed!?!

    Only the chutzpah of a bunch of guys who think the sun shines out of their BSDs (and women who walk the corridors of parliament as if they had one too), would allow such thoughts to be thought of as entirely appropriate. I guess that’s what they think the holding of political power is all about. Boundless arrogance in the pursuit of your agenda.

  42. The George Brandis affair. Finally the waking of the Canberra Press Gallery there is no saving this government from incompetence.

    Soon Murdoch will be in more trouble as his news outlets drain credit and viewers. Fox news is now suffering from the same credibility problem we have seen in Australia due to its support of Trump and will lose viewers as a result.

    The death throes of neo liberalism is having some interesting fallout.

  43. There was discussion on Q&A about the danger of journos being too friendly with pollies as they lose their objectivity. Right on the mark in Canberra, I think.

  47. lizzie

    Yes a good discussion on Qanda about the cosy relationship. The young man that asked the question is going to go far I think a clear eyed view of how the media works and what is wrong.

    I agreed with Robert Manne. No cosy dinners, no taking phone calls from Prime Ministers asking for advice. It was precisely that cosy style relationship including with owners of media that brought about the conditions for hack gate in the UK.

    Journalists are outsiders reporting for the public not Insiders reporting to the public.

  48. Arfur wasn’t called on to speak very often. 😉
    He certainly trod the Liberal line on every subject.
    Misquoting him as “refusing to rule out” a change to Abbott was typical journo.

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