Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie

    Yes we did. It shows how cosy relationships with the press become. No politician should be able to ask the editor to have a newspoll asking a specific question. Now knowing that I think it gives Essential more credibility as its honest in how it asks on issues. That is it asks the public for ideas not individual politicians behind closed doors

  2. Morning all

    Listening to sports radio this morning. Newspoll was reported from the angle that Turnbull is now less popular than when Abbott was dumped as PM. How low can Turnbull go

  3. Labor Senators should start calling Barry O’Sullivan and Ian McDonald, B1 and B2.
    Bully 1 and Bully 2.

    Buffoon, boor, bumpkin, bampot, bullshitter, baboon, basket-case, bonehead, barbarian, brown-nose, butthead

    they and no doubt others all work equally well.

  4. Farr:

    He has left the job as Australia’s number two law officer not because he concedes Mr Brandis was right in their dispute, but because he considered he was totally wrong.

    His departure will not end the row between the two, it will magnify it and allow a liberated Mr Gleeson to publicly defend his position.

    And the next eruption will be when a Senate inquiry looking into the clash between the two men makes its final report later in the year.
    …
    Mr Gleeson’s letter was much more than a formal “I Quit” note. It was a warning he would not let the issues between them rest, or meekly accept the hostility between them.

    He said he hoped the Senate inquiry — which both men appeared before — would “better enable Parliament to make an objective consideration of the issues I have raised undistracted by personalities.

    “For the avoidance of any doubt, I also make perfectly plain that I reject absolutely each and every attack and insinuation that has been made in recent times upon me personally or upon my office …”

    The insinuations, he said sharply, had been made “by Government members of Parliament, including you”.

    There is a lot left in this tussle.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/why-justin-gleesons-resignation-matters/news-story/30e37ff42ed4ec2c0e8bb1825e51d99d

  9. I agree with Bongiorno. This govt has always had the whiff of jack boot about it. Switching to Turnbull hasn’t changed that.

  10. Are Turnbull’s netstats worse than when he was OL in 2009?

    My (admittedly imperfect) memory was of sub 20 approvals in the wake of Gretch, that recovered a bit, but stayed low until he was knifed.

  13. I think Justin Gleeson, having made his point and won the battle as expected, may simply return to a stellar career at the private bar here or in England. He has neither the need nor the character to become a go-to commentator on these matters.

  16. More to the point, removing stamp duty won’t solve the problem.

    In the current corrupted property market, removing stamp duty would function like a ‘First Home Buyers’ grant, which is actually a grant to investors and vendors. Increasing purchasing power without addressing the way in which the market favours speculation will simply mean that home prices rise to absorb the increase. The main effect of cutting or abolishing stamp duty would be to transfer funds from States to ‘investors’. What is required is to fix the market, to stop it operating as a gigantic Ponzi scheme as ‘investors’ looking for quick capital gains price people actually needing somewhere to live. If nothing is done, it will eventually collapse in a heap, bringing down investors and mortgagees alike, not to mention the broader Australian economy. If something can’t go on forever, it will stop, but it won’t be pretty.

  18. Nic Holas ‏@nicheholas · 16h16 hours ago

    You’ve rung Australia. To select a new Solicitor-General, dial 1 for a list of men who helped get George Brandis’ kids off criminal charges.

  20. PhillipMHudson: Howard only PM in Newspoll history to have satisfaction fall below 30% & go on to win election bit.ly/2ep84eW @australian #auspol

  21. I think the REAL issue in the US election (and top an extent here and in the UK and Europe) is that Trump is on the podium at all.

    One of the largest nations of earth has democratically selected a demagogue as presidential candidate. Whether he wins of loses, US democracy has taken a blow.

  25. SHELLBELL – Yep, he’ll keep quiet now and watch Georgie implode. I heard a rumour that he’ll be going off to do big commercial arbitrations etc in London. The man can make truckloads of money if he wants.

  26. shellbell @ #63 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 8:48 am

    I think Justin Gleeson, having made his point and won the battle as expected, may simply return to a stellar career at the private bar here or in England. He has neither the need nor the character to become a go-to commentator on these matters.

    You may well be right. I don’t think anything further that he says about the issue could top this parting shot, and might even lessen the impact:

    “For the avoidance of any doubt, I also make perfectly plain that I reject absolutely each and every attack and insinuation that has been made in recent times upon me personally, or upon my office, by government members of parliament, including you, in Senate committee processes.

    “Equally, my decision is unrelated to any finding the Senate committee may make in favour of or adverse to any person.”

    The use of the phrase ‘for the avoidance of any doubt’ is classic legislative draftsman’s language to head off the possibility of an utterly perverse interpretation of the clear intent and language of legislation. Here, it is the most caustic commentary on the desperate attempts of the Government to spin this dispute in its favour.

  29. DTT:

    That Trump was able to get within a realistic shot at POTUS says it all to me about the US electoral system. Surely the party should’ve intervened once it became clear Trump was winning the primaries.

  31. political_alert: Greens Justice spokesperson @NickMcKim will address the media regarding Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson’s resignation at 9:45am #auspol

    political_alert: Shadow Attorney-General @markdreyfusQCMP will hold a press conference on Senator Brandis’ role in selecting the new S-G at 11am #auspol

  32. Is this the first time in Australia’s political history when the governing party has no alternative candidates for PM? It’s a pretty amazing situation.

  33. So it rather looks like 48/52 sits on some sort of steady line in the electorate.
    It would take a run of 49/51s or 47/53s to indicate another significant shift.
    This would, presumably, require something elemental.
    Like a collapse in the flats bubble combined with a significant drop in the construction workforce.

  34. And Turnbull is NO John Howard, least of all in terms of pure political nous.

    Howard made the Party in his own image. (mostly the worst parts of it)
    The Liberal Party has made Turnbull in their own image (mostly the worst parts of it)

  36. Is this the first time in Australia’s political history when the governing party has no alternative candidates for PM? It’s a pretty amazing situation.

    They haven’t had any alternative candidates for PM since the day Howard lost.

  40. And a Qlder to boot

    More Queensland chip on shoulder stuff. We really don’t need to boot Queenslanders. They do it to themselves very adequately.

  41. lyndalcurtis: The PM says the right decision was taken by the Solictor General. And he says George Brandis is doing a very good job.

  42. Shellbell

    Walter Sofronoff is an excellent candidate, if perhaps on the older side. And a Qlder to boot

    Or Sam Griffith, a Qld’er too, but maybe too much on the older side as well.

    😀

  43. So, the Greens do not face an existential problem.
    For the next decade or so they will continue to exist.
    But the polling now has their ‘natural’ number as around 10%.
    It might vary by a per cent or two around the mean but from all the recent polling and electoral evidence, the Greens vote is going nowhere at a leisurely pace.
    What does this mean for the Greens?
    Do they stop pretending that they will eventually form government?
    Do they stop pretending that when they say they ‘will’ implement some policy or another that they are fooling themselves and the electorate?
    Do they start coming to an understanding that, by setting out to damage Labor (and succeeding to some extent in the last Federal election), they are in fact helping the reactionaries?

  44. lyndalcurtis: The PM says the right decision was taken by the Solictor General. And he says George Brandis is doing a very good job.

    In comparison to the job he is doing…

  45. They haven’t had any alternative candidates for PM since the day Howard lost.

    The plan was to hand over to Peter Costello. We’ll never know how he’d have done.

  46. Also from Hudson’s article
    ‘Each Newspoll brings fresh pain for Team Turnbull — despite the leader’s insistence yesterday that there has “never been a happier prime minister” — as the Coalition chalks up a succession of below-par results.’

    What does this mean? I can’t think of anyone, apart from Lucy who cares if Turnbull is happy or not.
    I can’t recall ‘happiness’ on any metrics or comparative articles on different Prime Ministers.

  49. Shellbell

    I would think that Brandis would hate Sopranoff more than Gleeson, given the trouble in Qld. It strikes me as more than possible that Brandis was busy giving stupid advice to Newman over the Carmody affair and its precursors.

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