Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.
Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.
fitzhunter: The PM must act on the growing Hansard gate issue. I’m speaking about this issue at a doorstop shortly: bit.ly/PMmustact #auspol
Scared of losing his PMship? No judgement? Take your pick.
Confessions
The problem the Republican party had is that its OTHER candidates were worse than Trump. Of the 17 who stood, only Kasich, Huckabee and maybe Jeb Bush were actually better than Trump. The rest made Trump look sane. So this issue lies with the decline of one of the USA’s two major parties.
The BIG question now is – can the GOP return to being a Conservative/Business party rather than a far right Christian party? This is of course the SAME question we face here in the LNP.
I think the issue is perhaps far deeper and more fundamental than just Trump, or Abbott or the European far right. Without wanting to be accused yet again of hyperbole, and woe mongering, I suspect that democracy itself as a concept is under serious threat.
In the USA it is manifest in Trump and many tea party types. It is also manifest in the suppression of free speech and persecution of whistle blowers.
Here in Australia – especially Qld disregard for the rule of law and the traditions of legal independence have been trashed, with the Carmody fiasco and now the Gleeson affair, typifying a fundamental change in the respect the RW have for legal principles.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/25/michael-keenan-criticised-for-holding-one-sided-meetings-with-gun-lobby?CMP=share_btn_tw
1petermartin: I have no doubt that it is not legal to require people to provide their names. #censusfail Bill McCLennan
JR – When people keep telling you they are happy (a la Turnbull) you know they are very unhappy.
DTT
I agree with you that democracy is under threat. Trump election is rigged and Brandis trying it on with the SG are good indications of this.
‘The Australian’ has a photo of Turnbull that makes it look like he has a toper’s nose.
DTT
I should add the common theme is attacks on trust in institutions is the first way to make way for a dictatorship to be accepted.
BevanShields: Reporter question to Malcolm Turnbull: “Why don’t voters like you?” #auspol
gabriellechan: Q: How does it feel to be a more unpopular Prime Minister than Tony Abbott?
(LAUGHS)
Malcolm Turnbull: “Thank you very much.”
–Of the 17 who stood, only Kasich… were actually better than Trump.–
Kasich was way better, it would have been a very different race.
But until he returns my 20 quid I bet on him his name is mud.
Anyone watching the census inquiry is probably completely mystified – as the senators themselves seem to be – as to why a private company called “Capability Driven Acquisition” (CapDA) has been called before the inquiry given that they did not even put in a submission. The answer is that they are the ones that recommended IBM. In fact, they recommended that the ABS not go through a normal tender process, but only consider IBM.
One thing that you can conclude, looking at how well that turned out, is that CapDA are probably going to have a hard time finding any new customers.
I’d be willing to bet the ABS put these goons forward specifically to take the blame for the selection of IBM.
The revelations about Keenan meeting gun advocates is significant, he doesn’t strike me as one of the sharpest tools in the shed.
That is amazing P1, re CapDA and the recommendation for IBM. So is the ABS trying to escape accountability completely.
John Reidy
IMV, only having meetings with the people “on your side” suggests a lack of experience in public admin, and no self-confidence. Not a good choice.
Some were making the point in an earlier post that reporting of the polls seem off-hand to say the least. I listened to both ABC news at 6 am and 7 am local and the recent Newspoll was not mentioned at all in one, while only Turnbull’s poor personal rating got a short run in the other. I again hark back to the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd days when a minute move in the polls, especially in Newspoll and more especially when it augured a Labor “wipe out” were in the headlines. So, okay, there is no election around the corner (perhaps) but the current LNP government has much the same slender majority as Labor in the Gillard years. A bit of a puzzle. Maybe nobody really gives a stuff any more?
john reidy @ #115 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 10:38 am
Yes, it seems so.
The current LNP front bench have been described as clowns and buffoons plus other less salutary descriptions.
My fellow Austrians, I am reminded of that excellent fellow Mr. Alexander John Gosse Downer. Mr Downer whilst serving as something or other in the then LNP government regaled the country with his roguish portrayal of (?) complete with fishnet stockings.
Mr. Downer’s mad moment is now beginning to be seen as a moment of brilliance which distracted the country from collective woes and depressive ailments.\
I am starting to see it now – a conga line of beefy, beer gutted gentlemen of a certain age dressed in bustiers (whatever are they?), waist nippers (extra heavy duty), frilly knickers and, of course, the obligatory fishnet stockings. There they go, high kicking and from miles away you can see them sway to the beat of the Cuban Conga line that forms
Up in a tree so high, way up in the sky sits a wide eyed monkey.
Sorry, I got carried away there for a moment. Carried back to 1984 and “Down in the Caribbean” sung by just about everybody.
I guess this extravaganza to be complete would have to be orchestrated by Johnny Depp.
I think I have run out of fantasy for the day. I had better go and do some lawn mowing to calm myself. 😎
fantasy
/ˈfantəsi,-zi/
noun
noun: fantasy
1.
the faculty or activity of imagining impossible or improbable things.
— So is the ABS trying to escape accountability completely —
That is a talent, as discussed a few days ago, that is the most important capability for rising to the top. The teflon-coated exec.
I agree with Bongiorno. This govt has always had the whiff of jack boot about it. Switching to Turnbull hasn’t changed that.
Only difference between Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull’s jack boots is that Malcolm’s are made of the finest Wagyu Calf Skin offered up to the leader by a supplicant donor.
SK
“–Of the 17 who stood, only Kasich… were actually better than Trump.–
Kasich was way better, it would have been a very different race.”
Kasich pitched himself as a moderate – even though his record suggests he is far less moderate than he pretended. Kasich’s moderate stance, though contrived, set him apart from the frontrunners in the Primaries. But it went over like a lead balloon among the Republican grassroots.
If the party learns from this election (a dubious prospect), Kasich has a decent shot in 4 years. He’d make a good running mate, if nothing else.
The revelations about Keenan meeting gun advocates is significant, he doesn’t strike me as one of the sharpest tools in the shed.
Michael Keenan is the reward to the Keenan family for their many years of massive donations to the WA Liberal Party.
Kakuru,
I’d rather Kasich ran in 4 years. Mike Pence as the other realistic prospect is just too horrible to contemplate!
Tricot
Labor had that every time the polls moved because someone snuck around telling the media “Julia will be gone next week”.
Kakaru
He has the same problem as all of them – trying to navigate policy decisions whilst confronted with the power of the Tea Party.
He backed Medicaid expansion. It hurt him.
Its hard to know what any Republican pollie actually thinks on issues these days. Two faces, two hats, arthur or marthas.
Love Dreyfus, his pressers always take aim, and fire straight between the eyes, without any ‘hysterical language’.
Just tipped a very ‘respectful’ but heavy bucket on the govt.
I reckon Mark Dreyfus is worth an extra percentage point to Labor all on his own. Another powerfully pointed press conference from him.
BevanShields: Reporter question to Malcolm Turnbull: “Why don’t voters like you?” #auspol
Turnbull: “Familiarity breeds contempt”
You can’t more completely describe how loathsome Keenan is than to say he’s a good fit for a Liberal minister.
Democrat commentator on CNN just now.
Obamacare was the first step towards getting single payer health care.
So LNP are on a real loss attacking Medicare as it looks like US is going universal healthcare under Clinton.
Jen
Dreyfus also has Fran Kelly’s measure. I think that he should be the permanent go-to guy for RN Breakfast. He just totally dominated the interview this morning.
The female senator now questioning IBM at the census inquiry (not sure who it is, as I only have audio) has obviously has not done any homework – she even gets her basic terminology wrong. You can almost hear the sighs of relief from the IBM bench as they keep re-iterating the same technical gibberish, which she obviously does not understand.
I do hope some of the other senators have some decent technical advisors. Otherwise, this just makes a mockery of having a senate inquiry in the first place.
political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp and Member for Cowan, Anne Aly will hold a press conference at 1:30pm, Perth (10:30am local time) #auspol
http://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-world-news/get-this-donald-nasty-women-vote-20161024-4m9yj.html
Have you seen this?
Jeezus H Keerist! IBM just said that if they had their time over again, they would not change anything about their own technical solution. All fault lies with the upstream ISPs (NextGen & Vocus) who did not understand their instructions.
Simply astounding! And so far no-one has even asked whether geoblocking was an appropriate mechanism for defending against a DDoS attack, assuming one occurred (hint: it isn’t – IBM acknowledges this in their own submission).
SKatich
“He has the same problem as all of them – trying to navigate policy decisions whilst confronted with the power of the Tea Party.”
Yep indeed. They have to appease the Tea Party RWNJs during the primaries. If the candidate survives that, they have to lurch to the centre in order to win a general election.
Lizzie
— Scared of losing his PMship? No judgement? Take your pick —
The Coalition is a room full of tools. Bound to be a pick in there somewhere.
Ha! IBM says it proposed geoblocking, and nobody said it wasn’t adequate. IBM admits there were multiple other techniques that could have been used, but that geoblocking seemed to be “well suited” to this application.
It doesn’t occur to any of the senators to point out that if in fact there was a DDoS, then this assessment was obviously incorrect. Idiots.
Hard to see Turnbull improving from here. No policies hardly at all plus even the ones he has got are unpopular.Hardly going to motivate any voter in the future towards him.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/10/25/essential-trump-second-only-to-isis-as-a-threat-australians-say/
Oct 25, 2016
Essential: Trump second only to ISIS as a threat, Australians say
Australians rate Islamic State as the greatest threat to peace and stability, but the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency is second.
Bernard Keane — Politics Editor
Australians think a Trump presidency would be the second greatest threat to international peace and stability after Islamic State and Islamic radicalisation, this week’s Essential Report shows.
Asked what they believe is the biggest threat, 42% of voters said Islamic State and 21% a Trump presidency. The surprise third greatest threat was “growing level of inequality”, identified by 11%. Coalition voters were more likely to see IS and radicalisation as the biggest threat (53%) and less likely to see Trump as a threat (16%) whereas Greens voters saw Trump as the greatest threat (35%) followed by global warming (20%).
…………………………
On voting intention, the Coalition has regained the point it lost last week, bringing its primary vote to 38%. Labor remains on 37%, the Greens are down a point to 10%, NXT remains on 3% and One Nation are up from 5% to 6%, for a two-party preferred outcome of 52%-48% in Labor’s favour, down from 53%-47% last week.
IBM wallowing when it is pointed out that their own figures (and those of their upstream ISPs) show that any DDoS attack that did occur was completely trivial in size.
IBM trying to now claim that it was not the size of the attack that caused the problem, but something else that they are unable to explain.
Dreyfus is a class act. Heard an extract from ABC Breakfast in which La Trioli asked him if he could sleep at night, FFS!
The standard of ABC journalism deteriorates on an almost daily basis.
simon katich @ #138 Tuesday, October 25, 2016 at 11:59 am
😆 How long have you been saving that one up for the right opportunity? Good one!
Re the us
‘Yep indeed. They have to appease the Tea Party RWNJs during the primaries. If the candidate survives that, they have to lurch to the centre in order to win a general election.’
And the they still have to keep the base (RWNJs) engaged and keen to vote.
IBM admits they rejected advice on standard means of protecting against DDoS attacks from their own subcontractors, and that they instead chose geoblocking, which (if a DDoS attack occurred) was both inappropriate and demonstrably inadequate.
So IBM is screwed, although they don’t seem to realize it yet. They were advised otherwise by their own experts, but they thought they knew better.
Hope this doesn’t derail the inquiry from investigating the real issue, which should be about legality and privacy, not IBM’s system that failed due to simple overload and bad design. I suspect it may have been intended to do so.
At least Bill Mclennan had the opportunity to point out that the ABS has simply lied about previous censuses collecting name on a compulsory basis, and that they in fact have no legal basis for doing so. Although this could still be whitewashed, there is at least no way that it can simply be ignored by the senate committee.
Turnbull has moved on from being afraid to do anything that might upset “the base” to being afraid to do anything at all in case it is seen as: a) upsetting the base; b) capitulating to the base; c) a stuff up; d) something else that somehow reflects badly on him
Not clear where he goes from here.
Michael Pascoe doesn’t pull any punches re Morrison:
‘This is the Coalition government’s favourite sort of problem – one they can flick responsibility for onto the states and spend some years “thinking” about it without actually doing anything constructive. Like tax reform in general, it is explicit and implicit federal policy for political pain to be devolved to the states as the government lacks the ticker, integrity and political capital to tackle it.’
Not hard to tell that he isn’t a member of the Press Gallery.
Like Simon Katich I marvel at the survivability (though not the ability) of both ABS and IBM staff, with not a single one having been disciplined, let alone sacked after CensusFail 2016. Imagine what bonuses they must earn when they do their jobs properly? Clearly, these guys are not overburdened by a sense of shame.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-25/abs-officials-face-parliamentary-grilling-over-census/7960480
I see also that the IBM boss has “apologised unreservedly”. My questions are:
1. Does he then acknowledge IBM failed to deliver the service as contracted? if not, what exactly is he apologising for?
2. How much less payment does he propose IBM receive for this failure, or pay back if already overpaid?
As a taxpayer, I would like to know. For that matter, I am not seeing the value in still paying $600,000 to a Chief Statistician who is not a statistician, and not evidently a census manager either. I wonder if he has any friends in government from his days in the PMC?
Don, I run purely off the cuff. Although I cant take all the credit, the line stems from an old Irish joke…..
How to you confuse an Irishman? Put him in a room full of shovels and tell him to take his pick.