Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.2, Trump 42.1

Three emphatic debate victories in a row look to have pushed Hillary Clinton’s lead to landslide proportions.

When I last performed this exercise on October 4, half way between the first and second debates, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 47.8% to 43.7%. Since then, Clinton has gained 1.4% and Trump has lost 1.6%. Two and a bit weeks to go …

2016-10-23-us-tracker

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

35 comments on “Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.2, Trump 42.1”

  4. “So I wonder how will Turnbull get on with President Hillary Clinton? He will need to learn soon.”

    Depends on how long Turnbull lasts

  5. I suspect Turnbull and Clinton will actually see eye to eye on most things, Soc. Not much between them in terms of their general view of the world, I suspect. Both business oriented, vaguely liberal politicians . While Clinton is far more appealing than Trump, and Turnbull, on the face of it, less offensive than Abbott, neither are likely to ever push progressive policies very far.

  7. Thinking further about Trump’s statement threatening to sue his female accusers (note no actual lawsuits lodged yet claiming any facts) I wonder about his motives.

    Threatening to bully women into submission will not win him one single vote.

    Claiming ten separate women all saying similar things, all independently, most not registered democrats, are all liars is pretty hard to believe. Why not ignore it and attak Hillary? Why do it?

    One possible motive might be to deter others from reporting further alleged incidents. Cases of sexual harassment and even sexual assault are notoriously under-reported. More so if the alleged perpetrator is powerful. The obvious question is: are there worse incidents out there in Trump’s past that have not yet surfaced? Only Trump and any victim know for sure.

  8. “So I wonder how will Turnbull get on with President Hillary Clinton? He will need to learn soon”

    Do you think Turnbull will last until Clintons inauguration? I’m surprised he’s still here.

  9. Texas seems incredibly optimistic. Clinton winning somewhere like Georgia or Alaska, which also lean Republican and are also within the margin or error is much more likely. The house of representatives is a total long shot as democrats would have to pick up almost every swing seat. The democrats should really focus their efforts on the senate races. At the moment a democratic win seems likely, but it will only be by a couple of seats and with far-left senators like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren the democrats don’t want to have to deal with a one seat majority where the senate can be held hostage.

    Former campaign manager for Jeb Bush Mike Murphy has a podcast that is examining the chaos going on in the Republican party right now and it’s very insightful.

    http://radiofreegop.com/

  11. If you click on ‘US polling’ you will find that two or three of the most recent polls have Trump in a tie or in front. These polls must be of dubious reputation? Trump himself says he’ll do a Brexit. Anything is possible.
    In Senate polling the Dems appear to be holding on to Nevada narrowly after a long stretch in the doldrums. If they do hold here they need to pick off four Repugs for a tied Senate in which the Vice-President would have the casting vote.

    Illinois looks a monte. Russ Feingold has been comfortably ahead in Wisconsin for a long time (though the margin has tightened in some recent polls). It’s assumed that Evan Bayh will be another comeback kid in Indiana but polls there are thin on the ground.

    That would be three extra senators. One more would be needed from New Hampshire, where the Dems’ Nancy Hassan has turned the tables of late, Missouri, where there’s also been a turnaround, and the more speculative races in North Carolina and Florida.
    With the Repugs throwing everything into the fight to hold the Senate and therefore the Supreme Court, it could be a desperately close thing.

  14. First post debate polls in now and atrump continues to fall. He is now damaging the Republican Senate contests badly.
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast
    And
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

    Shiftaling
    That will mean Dems get to choose new Supreme Court judges via Senate hearings. Republicans will have to negotiate with Clinton and vice versa. But without the Senate, Republicans cannot to much either legislatively or on budget. No more tax cuts. Clinton will not have to veto stuff.

  16. PHOENIX (AP) — There is palpable momentum for Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, a state so traditionally Republican that her party’s nominee for president has carried it just once in the past 64 years.

    Encouraged by Donald Trump’s failure to unite the GOP in Arizona, long-hungry Democrats are scrambling to capitalize in the campaign’s final weeks. Should they succeed, the loss of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes would further complicate Trump’s narrow path to reaching the 270 threshold to win the presidency.

    https://apnews.com/b2734f8da4884f3ea0f7e7f8cea68264/Clinton-takes-fight-to-Arizona,-long-a-Republican-bastion?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

  17. Not having the Senate also greatly hinders the Republican ability to override a veto since it requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate as well.

    It’s not just the Supreme Court for the Senate either. Senate confirmations are needed for many senior executive and judicial branch appointments (it’s symbolic of having the approval of the individual states).

  21. moksha @ #18 Monday, October 24, 2016 at 11:57 am

    Using the Huffington Post’s Pollster chart, you can create your own charts. I created two, splitting the polls that use telephone methods from those that use internet methods.
    The difference is stark – 48.9 to 38.7 (10.2% gap) for phone polls, compared to 44.3 to 41.1 (3.2% gap) for internet polls.
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

    A fair bit of the difference is caused by Rasmussen, which is notoriously Republican-skewed. Without Rasmussen the combined score for Online and IRV/Online is 46.3-40.6.

    It is still an interesting difference.

  22. Trump’s very popular with a segment of 4chan / most of 8chan (who are responsible for the automated twitter responses to pretty much anything about Hillary or Trump).

    If the Online polls aren’t methodologically sound they may additionally be stacked, as those places have more than a passing familiarity with both Social Engine form of stacking and basic script use hacking.

    It’s also possible that a lot of the young Alt-Right that Trump appeals to don’t show up in phone polls.

  23. Guytaur
    “There is palpable momentum for Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, a state so traditionally Republican that her party’s nominee for president has carried it just once in the past 64 years.”

    A Clinton victory in Arizona would also be hugely symbolic. This is Goldwater country.

  24. TT
    “That would be three extra senators. One more would be needed from New Hampshire, where the Dems’ Nancy Hassan has turned the tables of late, Missouri, where there’s also been a turnaround, and the more speculative races in North Carolina and Florida.”

    Failed GOP primary contender Rubio will win Florida. The Dem candidate (Pat Murphy) is well behind.
    Maggi Hassan’s chances in New Hampshire have been helped by the fact that the incumbent (Kelly Ayotte) has tied herself in knots trying to explain her position vis-a-vis Trump.

  25. I wouldn’t make too much of those online polls. Alt-right trolls have essentially rendered online polls useless this cycle.

  26. Online polls are nothing more than clickbait. Trump supporters try to game them to convince their fellow travellers that Trump is winning, and that the established polls are rigged.
    Yep, the irony.

  27. Those aren’t Breitbart / 9MSN polls or what have you. They are genuine statistical polls with sample controls etc just done over the internet. If the Trump crowd were rigging them in their normal way they’d be between 70 and 90% for Trump. That doesn’t mean they are totally pure but they aren’t garbage click polls either.

  28. There is palpable momentum for Democrat Hillary Clinton in Arizona, a state so traditionally Republican that her party’s nominee for president has carried it just once in the past 64 years.

    That candidate? Bill Clinton.

  29. It should be remembered that wasn’t due to Clinton though, it was due to Ross Perot , who split the conservative vote most effectively.

  30. Thought you meant those useless clickpolls, where Trump supporters (aka StormTrumpers) get RSI trying to boost their guy’s poll numbers.

  31. Re Ross Perot.
    The situation is actually quite complicated…
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ross-perot-myth/

    “George H.W. Bush only lost his re-election bid in 1992 because a peculiar independent candidate from Texas, Ross Perot, drew more voters away from Bush than from Democratic candidate Bill Clinton. It’s one of the most enduring myths in U.S. presidential election history. Perot ran a quirky “outsider” campaign that in many ways presaged the Donald Trump phenomenon of 2016. It all amounted to one of the most successful third-party bids in U.S. history; Perot won 19 percent of the popular vote. But, no, Perot did not cost Bush the election”

  32. The other thing that a Democrat-controlled Senate can do is ratify treaties. Probably the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty would be first cab off the rank.

  33. You need a supermajority to ratify a treaty and Democrats aren’t getting that unless Trump voters decided to run an armed insurrection rather than vote.

  34. Are live interview polls missing Shy Black Trump Voters?
    Re: the comments above regarding online and automated vs phone polls. I’ve noted huge discrepancies between the Trump Black vote, with some claims that he’s only receiving 1 or 2% and others showing up to 20%. An interesting case is two new polls just out in North Carolina: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html
    Remington Research, which appears to be an automated poll, has a black vote split of 72-20 on a sample of 1764. It indicated that the black % of the sample is 24%, so that’s 423, a quite reasonable sample. The Trump % in NC is also consistent with polls the same company conducted in other states.
    On the other hand, there is a live phone poll conducted at the same time, by Siena for the New York Times which gives a split of 88-2. That’s just one tenth of the support for Trump given in the Remington poll.
    Interestingly there is not much difference between the two polls in White support: 53-32 in Siena and 56-36 in Remington, so the difference in Black support almost entirely covers the difference between these two polls in the overall result: 46-39 to Clinton in Siena and 47-44 to Trump in Remington.
    I’ve also noted this in other polls. There’s a Monmouth (live phone poll) poll of NC out with a sample of only 402, that is crediting a “non-white” (which in NC means overwhelmingly black) split of 78-16, so perhaps not all live interview polls suffer from this issue. The focus of possible polling error commentary has been on possible shy White Trump supporters, but but I have a suspicion that there is a sleeper Black vote for Trump which may be a much more significant factor. If Trump gets anything like 15 or 20% of the Black vote, the election will be no slam dunk for Clinton.

  35. Not quite the same issue as I mentioned above, but another reason to question the pre-ordained outcome:
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-tracking-polls-230293
    This is going to be much closer than people seem to think. The tracking polls mentioned in the article are now more in sync with the state polls than the national phone polls. I have a theory that each media generated Trump scandal temporarily (artificially) suppresses his vote in the phone polls because some people don’t feel comfortable admitting to supporting a (insert sexist, racist, tax dodger) but when the scandal blows over they come back. This makes these polls more reactive and less accurate than automated polls or tracking polls where the same people are surveyed regularly and therefore become less self-conscious about their responses.
    State based polls indicate Trump is now back in very serious contention in NC, Florida and Nevada. If he gets these it will be 272-266. He needs one more state. That looks difficult, I think Colorado is his best shot.

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