BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-10-12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Uhlmann comes across as nothing more than a spoilt right wing (hates the anti-discrimination legislation for eg) sook in that article, a cry-baby, who can dish it out but can’t take it.

  4. Bemused

    Saw another story. which I didn’t bother reading, which appeared to suggest something almost the opposite.

    “which appeared to suggest something almost the opposite” – but, but, you didn’t read it!

  7. Anne Coulter was mentioned earlier.
    For a couple of days she hopped off the Trump train, she was disappointed that he had backtracked from his promise to deport all 11million illegal immigrants. Possibly Trump was for once interviewed by a network other than Fox News.
    Coulter was distraught.
    All was fine a couple of days later when Trump backtracked on his backtrack and said yes, they would all be deported.

  8. Antony Green
    5 mins ·
    Currently rehearsing for tonight’s live coverage of the ACT election count. From 6pm on the ABC’s main channel in the ACT, and from 6pm eastern on News24 across the rest of the country.

    Yay an election to watch tonight!

  9. With such a high proportion of public sector workers, it’s hard to see the ACT voting Liberal, but then I haven’t heard anything about the election apart from PB.

    Apropos of nothing much, there are several sovereign nations that have populations similar to that of the ACT: Malta, Brunei, The Bahamas, Belize and Iceland.

  12. Guytaur
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:40 am

    Thank you for sharing the letter from Jason Thomas to Watermark Community Church.

    I agree whole heartedly with Jason Thomas, as he admonishes his former church “You are tarnishing the name of God to Christians and non-Christians alike; you should be ashamed of yourselves! Do not forget, Jesus was angry with people just like you who said certain groups of people were not worthy to be followers of Him.” The behaviour of the members of this church to their fellow congregant is absolutely appalling and counter to my understanding of how the church should behave toward its own.

    This is just another example of modern day “Pharisees” subverting the message of the gospel and the failure to recognize “that all have sinned” and fallen short of the glory of God (Romans 3:9 – What shall we conclude then? Are we any better? Not at all! We have already made the charge that Jews and Gentiles alike are all under sin. – New International Version). Indeed, the Apostle Paul in his letter to the Romans bemoans this very fact when discussing his own sinfulness (Romans 7:14 – “I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do I do not do, but what I hate I do. For what I do is not the good I want to do; no, the evil I do not want to do—this I keep on doing. NIV)

    Further, from a theological perspective, and from my own experience as a member of a number of congregations, it is gossip which causes far more grief and damage to the spiritual health of a church than any behaviour between consenting adults in the privacy of their own home.

    It is this rank hypocrisy as exhibited by congregations such as the Watermark Community Church, which makes me truly angry. I can just imagine the uproar if they chose to expel the unrepentant Church Gossip (they all have one – usually some little old lady/man with nothing better to do with their time), or the glutton, or the business owner who exploits his/her employees (and they are there). There are far more admonitions against these types of behaviour in the New Testament than an individual’s sexual practices.

    In the letter of James (arguably the earliest written of the books in the New Testament and written by James, the son of Mary and brother of Jesus), the author spends half of the third chapter highlighting the damage which the tongue can do. Other subject matter touched on by James includes a warning to Rich Oppressors; two kinds of wisdom – the wisdom which comes from humility as opposed to the “wisdom” which comes from selfish ambition; the need for faith to be accompanied by action (“faith by itself, if it is not accompanied by action, is dead”) and my personal favourite at Chapter 1 verse 27 “Religion that God our Father accepts as pure and faultless is this: to look after orphans and widows in their distress”. Nowhere throughout the letter does James refer to sexual “sin” of any kind, let alone homosexuality.

    For me, if an action causes unnecessary pain or distress to another, then it is sinful – regardless of what that behaviour may encompass. In this respect I am with the apostle Paul as the words in his letter to the Romans may as well be mine as I recognize in my Christian walk that more often than not I fail to meet the high standard which I myself have set in response to the call of God on my life. And for this reason I will never look down on another individual as being “less than I”. Mind you it is difficult not to harbour such thoughts with respect to the so called “evangelical” Christians.

    As a foot note, I have chosen to turn to scripture in this post, as I believe it is the best way to counter the “theological” arguments used to justify the actions by some church congregations against not only outsiders, but their own, as identified by Jason Thomas and others like him.

  13. Hillary is very very lucky. I think a worthy opponent would have beaten convincingly given the baggage that she carries. The biggest enemy of Trump has been Trump – no doubt.

  14. ctar1 @ #154 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    Bemused

    Saw another story. which I didn’t bother reading, which appeared to suggest something almost the opposite.

    “which appeared to suggest something almost the opposite” – but, but, you didn’t read it!

    Glanced at it. Seemed to take the line that it was not a good time for him to get the gig.
    Didn’t read any further.
    I have no opinion about the man.

  21. antonbruckner11 @ #169 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm

    The only think I ever hear about Uhlmann’s wife is that she is Uhlmann’s wife. Has she got any ability?

    She used to be a APS departmental PR flack. Nothing special about her that I can recall.

  34. Sprocket:

    How spot on were Rebecca Traister’s comments about Clinton? Reminded me of all the shit Gillard had to put up with from Abbott.

  37. Doyley,
    They are some interesting references, and it is good to have some scriptural references to use when the Bible is quoted. Thank you for posting that. The faux Christians who use that book to justify their bigotry are unfortunately the empty vessels that ring the loudest. You strike me as someone who has put a lot of thought into your faith, recognising the core belief of caring for others and turning aside justifications for harm.
    i understand where you are coming from.

    Gossip does perform a function in society, spreading news, but malicious gossip is quite another matter.

  38. Bemused
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:36 pm
    antonbruckner11 @ #169 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm

    The only think I ever hear about Uhlmann’s wife is that she is Uhlmann’s wife. Has she got any ability?

    She obviously lacks in the taste and judgement departments.
    Otherwise no idea.

    That is to say, you will form an opinion of her based not on who she is or what she has done, but on whom she is married to.

    The sexism rolls on.

  40. briefly @ #188 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    Bemused
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:36 pm
    antonbruckner11 @ #169 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:31 pm
    The only think I ever hear about Uhlmann’s wife is that she is Uhlmann’s wife. Has she got any ability?
    She obviously lacks in the taste and judgement departments.
    Otherwise no idea.
    That is to say, you will form an opinion of her based not on who she is or what she has done, but on whom she is married to.
    The sexism rolls on.

    You really have drunk lots of Confession’s kool-aid haven’t you? Everything is about sexism.
    The only opinion I expressed was about one issue. I otherwise hold no opinion of her. She could be marvellous for all I know.

  41. briefly @ #188 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    The sexism rolls on.

    Sadly, this kind of sexism is so ingrained that it doesn’t even occur to some people that it is sexism. Very few would judge Chris Uhlmann by who he is married to, but many would judge Gai Brodtmann that way.

    Similarly, Bill Clinton doesn’t get judged for being married to Hillary Clinton, but Hillary sure gets judged for being married to Bill!

  43. [Hillary is very very lucky. I think a worthy opponent would have beaten convincingly]

    Where she got *really* lucky is that *none* of the 17 Republican candidates were worthy opponents.

  45. Hmmm….dire predictions and prognostications and negative publicity about the wisdom of Shorten backing Kimberly Kitching for a Senate spot. Yet, the media seems to have let the IPA drone Patterson slip into his spot with little comment and accepted it, even though he seems to be shaping up as a nasty little RW prick who probably wouldn’t have gotten the spot if the PM had a spine and could stand up to Lib RW.

  46. mimhoff @ #193 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 6:07 pm

    Where she got *really* lucky is that *none* of the 17 Republican candidates were worthy opponents.

    I’m not sure that’s luck … have you looked at the wingnuts that comprise the Republican party these days? Similar to the Liberals here, very few would be electable if the media did their job properly.

  47. Imacca
    Whatever the reason is it is not a good choice by Shorten.
    No preselection just Shorten giving a friend a position. Not good in my books.

  48. One US state that is not in play, but is never-the-less interesting, is Indiana. Obama won it in 2008, the first time it had voted Democrat since 1964. Romney won it fairly solidly for the Republicans in 2012, and 538 currently rate it as a 13% chance for the Democrats this year, less than their chance of winning Texas. I wonder what it was that led to Indiana voting for Obama in 2008, but yet has them apparently not even considering Clinton this year?

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