BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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    I have been on a country road and had a drunk ( I suspect) jump in front of me and as a result put a car into a side-way drift on the bitumen to avoid him. Missed him; recovered before I hit a tree and kept going. Could have killed myself.
    With time to reflect; did I do right? If I hit the guy I could not have lived with myself; in my view, if one of us had to die; better me. I would not have had to live with that.
    The car did it; could you live with that? I think so.

  2. Good morning kiddies!

    Caulfield Cup day starts satisfyingly with the b-track edging further into the progressive direction. The demonic Trump is being flayed. All is improving in the world.

  3. From previous thread:

    #2158 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:05 pm
    If you have to ask who is Jo Strummer you truly werent alive in the late 70s early 80s. His best work though was with The Mescaleros.

    I guess for some observers that is true, though as far as I was concerned I was very much alive, and enjoying life tremendously.

    I was married with young kids, the sole earner, struggling with a mortgage, and knocking a small acreage into shape by that time, fencing and planting and building sheds and chookhouses on a shoestring budget.

    I no longer followed popular music, and as a result of learning violin with my kids I became much more interested in classical music, Mozart, Beethoven, Bach.

  4. The ATP are weak as piss.

    Kyrgios was paid USD$50,000 to play tennis at the Shanghai Masters.

    He was fined only USD$21,000 for this ‘performance.

    During the straight-sets loss to Zverev, Kyrgios engaged in verbal battles with the crowd, telling fans to “go home” after they’d told him to “respect the game, respect the people”.

    His post-match comments followed a similar line, with Kyrgios insisting he owed his fans nothing.

    “They don’t know what I’m going through,” he said.

    “I feel like if they knew what they were talking about they’d be on the tennis court and being successful as well.

    “I don’t owe them anything. It’s my choice. If you don’t like it, I didn’t ask you to come watch. Just leave.”$us16,500-for-unsportsmanlike-conduct/7931808?section=sport

  5. Herewith a largish cut and paste from ‘The Australian’ because most Bludgers do not access The Weekend Australian and many Bludgers have an interest in the topic. I have excised substantial slabs of the article so the result is a composite of bits and pieces of Kohler’s original article, but as written.

    ‘Alan Kohler
    I was wrong on NBN: It’s a turkey
    The numbers are simple, and inescapable.
    The NBN will end up costing $50 billion, of which $30bn is government equity and $20bn will be debt, still to be raised.
    After about 2020, it will have eight million customers. At the moment the average access charge is $43 per month (versus Telstra’s $15 a month for ADSL, which is why TPG’s share price crashed).
    By 2020, that $43 can perhaps be got up to $50, so $600 a year. Total revenue, therefore, of $4.8bn.
    Telstra has to be paid about $2bn a year in rent for its pipes and ducts, and the cost of running the NBN and maintaining the network is expected to be about $1bn a year. Assuming interest on the debt of $800m (at 4 per cent), that leaves a net profit of $1.2bn, or 4 per cent return on equity of $30bn.
    To sell the network, as it intends, the government would probably need to write it down by $20bn so the ROE is 10 per cent.
    And even then it will be a hard sell because of the high wholesale access price that would have to be charged, and the likely competition by then from 5G wireless.
    Is Slattery right that it will be the most expensive network in the developed world?
    Not even close. According to a cost-of-living database published by a website called Numbeo, the most expensive broadband is in Ethiopia — $US197.71 per month.
    Australia’s monthly price on this list is $US52.85, and based on the today’s NBN access price of $43 ($US32.25), it could still be that price with the NBN as network wholesaler — as long as it is only earning an ROE of 4 per cent.
    The problem comes if, or rather when, the NBN has to earn a commercial return. To make an ROE of 10 per cent, the NBN Co would need to charge $73 per month, or $US55.
    A reseller margin of 40 per cent would take the Australian retail broadband price to $US77, which is more than Cuba’s $US72.50, but less than Bolivia’s $US81. And it’s an awful lot more than Britain’s $US25.95, where broadband network construction has been left to (the private) British Telecom.
    That’s why TPG’s share price is down 30 per cent: it will be lucky to get a margin of 10 per cent, and even then it will be vulnerable to competition from wireless.
    What’s to be done? Nothing. As an NBN insider told me with a rueful shrug this week: “We are where we are.”
    Sorry about that.’

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A monster Saturday edition.

    Paul Bongiorno assesses Turnbull’s first 100 days since the last election. He’s certainly got his hands full.
    Mark Kenny says that despite a poor effort from a struggling Brandis he will probably survive.
    Amy Remeikis (a journo who seems to be new on the block and writing good stuff) harshly criticises the performance and antics of the three Coalition senators at the Brandis/Gleeson cage match. It’s a nicely constructed article.
    Here’s Michaela Whitbourn on how Gleeson is going to stand firm in his defiance of Brandis’s order that he believes is flawed.
    Michelle Grattan puts in her two bob’s worth.
    Peter Hartcher examines the success of Barnaby Joyce.
    Laurie Oakes says that Abbott has tripped up over his support of Trump. Google.
    The term “dysfunctional family” comes to mind when reading this.
    More trouble for Mike Baird over greyhound racing.
    Telstra may have a point here seeing it is a private company.
    Giuliani has become Trump’s attack dog.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    The RBA has warned that oversupply of housing apartments could send some developers broke. There could be disruptive price falls. Google.
    From his vulgarity to his misogyny to his love of Putin, Donald Trump is running to destroy the great American experiment. A dangerous thug emblematic of America’s decline.
    FOI uncovers goings on at the ABS on census night.
    The UK pound has sunk to a 168 year low in the wake of the Brexit vote.
    The quality and reliability of internet and phone services has become a real issue when it comes to real estate prospects. And we are heading to a hotchpotch “NBN” with far from practical standardised offerings.
    I’m afraid the subject English leaves me for dead. I only learned about the construction of my native language by studying French and Latin at high school. Honestly why should one’s love or otherwise of “A Midsummer Night’s Dream” or Grey’s “Ellery in a Country Churchyard” play a significant part in the determination of a young person’s future? I’m all for structural and practical English as a compulsory subject but not the esoteric stuff.
    Paul McGeough and the funk the Trump campaign is in over the old skeletons emerging from the closet.
    Paul Kelly writes that Trump has exposed America’s loss of virtue. He describes the Republican Party as a “tragic global joke”. Google.
    Hamish McDonald on the rude awakening for Trump supporters.
    Even conservative Bill Kristol says Trump has got to go. Google.
    And in the last few hours a fresh accusation has been made against Trump by a woman he had sexually accosted.
    Karen Middleton writes on sexual harassment in politics. She refers to many personal experiences in the article.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Waleed Aly gets it right with this Andrew Olle lecture.
    Adele Ferguson throws Medcraft’s own words back at him over ASIC’s appearance at the House Standing Committee on Economics hearing. As an aside the new Liberal MP Julia Banks is showing that she might be made of the right stuff.
    This personal story exposes the inhumanity of banks to their customers.
    Andrew Street tells us that paying tax is the greatest bargain we ever made.
    Jess Irvine looks at the effects our low interest rates are having.
    Bob Day is in real trouble. He is the sole director of his building company on which final demands for payment have been lodged. Google.
    Michael Gordon laments the suffering this country has inflicted on so many in order to “protect our values”.
    Katherine Murphy on the breakout of factional friction in both major parties.
    Have a look at this new political party registration. Where are we headed?
    Mike Seccombe goes inside the Mike Baird machine.

  9. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The scourge of real estate underquoting.

    David Rowe turns to Gilbert and Sullivan to give us the very modern A-G.

    Matt Golding with Brandis splitting hairs.

    Andrew Dyson and the end of the SSM rainbow.
    Alan Moir on the collapse of the plebiscite proposal.
    David Pope takes Abbott Trumpster diving. Look at the construction of the stool.
    Matt Davidson just couldn’t help himself with the clown story.
    Matt Golding celebrates the lifting of the photography ban in the Senate.

  10. Dear Watermark Community Church,
    Today I celebrate a very interesting anniversary with you. It was exactly one year ago when you told me that I was no longer worthy to serve, be in a community group, and be a member of your church.
    I spent years in your church battling against my homosexuality. I believed with all my heart that God would change me; I prayed for change almost daily. But when I wasn’t able to change, you turned your back on me.
    You say our “sin” is not unique, but you treat us in a unique manner; this is unacceptable behavior. We are actual people that have actual feelings.
    Here we are a year later and you are still doing to others what you did to me. You are tarnishing the name of God to Christians and non-Christians alike; you should be ashamed of yourselves! Do not forget, Jesus was angry with people just like you who said certain groups of people were not worthy to be followers of Him.
    Thank you for removing yourself from my life! I am who God made me to be. I cannot change my sexual orientation and nor would I want to. I now have internal peace and happiness unlike ever before.
    Jason Thomas

  11. Boer

    There was a telecommunications expert on our local ABC radio a couple of weeks ago, who basically started every sentence about the NBN with “Since 2013…”. He was advising people to stick with ADSL rather than switching to wireless.

    He repeated pointed out that (Since 2013) the quality control guarantees have been scrapped. Thus (before 2013) if was shown that a wireless outlet was in danger of being overloaded, the fibre connecting it would be automatically upgraded. Now, NBN blame the ISP providers for overselling.

    He also pointed out the shift in language (since 2013) around speed guarantees. They have now become maximums when they used to be minimums.

  12. Thanks BK. Do Day’s troubles have any prospect of removing him from the Senate? I cannot see him ever leaving it voluntarily. Interesting he and Palmer have the same corporate piggy bank attitude to their companies.

  13. I have decided in minimal posting here.

    However supporting Kimberly Kitching will bite Bill on the bum.

    Now OK it is sexist to blame people for the evils of their sexual partners, and Landeryou is at least a Labor guy, although to the right of Attila the Hun. But Andrew Bolt!!!!!!!!! Kimberly that is a step too far.

    So my grenade for the day.

    Toddle pip

  14. EdwardTHardy: Why does Donald Trump boast how he avoided paying tax? Why is he so proud of not paying into a system that all Americans benefit from?

    The US is giving us some good lines for attacking the tax bludgers in Australia.

  15. Harold Mitchell’s opinion of ‘Young Paterson’, who obviously knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing,

    Australia’s cultural treasures and Australia’s sporting capacities cannot be separated from our financial and social future. The young senator must come to understand this along with one other thing. They will all outlast him.

  16. BK

    Its been a while. Thanks for your Dawn Patrols so essential reading every morning 🙂


    Good luck to Labor and Greens in the ACT election. With any luck we will see a Labor government with a Greens opposition. Yes its a dream but given NT results maybe just maybe 🙂

  17. Question for modern language experts.


    just now we can: turn all TV off by 10:00am tomoz morn; turn all radio off by 10:00am tomoz morn, turn all digital OOH off by 9:00am tomoz morn;

    Source: emails in

    Question: Is ‘tomoz’ a stand alone substitution for ‘tomorrow’, or can we just write ‘z’ for the final syllable of any multi-syllable word now?

  18. Trump is deranged

    T. Becket Adams
    3h3 hours ago
    T. Becket Adams ‏@BecketAdams
    Trump on the woman who claimed he assaulted her on a plane: “She would not be my first choice

  19. The US Election has been a bad joke, but I cant look away. It has been fascinating.

    Someone on facebook has posted they don’t know why Americans are so excited about halloween because halloween hasn’t ended from last year. So true.

  20. victoria

    Yes its why I am worried about the reaction of his supporters when Trump loses the election.

    Conspiracy nutters that believe his lies that its all a media conspiracy are not exactly known for their sanity and ability to accept the factual reality.

  21. Mr Trump is a narcissist.
    Rational people try to use narcissists.
    They try to reason with them.
    Reasonable people often think they will be able to control or manage a narcissist.
    This is what Labor did with Rudd, what the Liberals did with Abbott, and what the GOP did with Trump.
    Here is the thing: narcissists always end up using rational people, not the other way round.
    There is nothing unusual about Trump at all.

  22. Fess

    Yep. My worry is that Trump is laying the groundwork for after the election to further delegitimise the Presidency. Much like the way he did with Obama and the birther movement. He really needs to be cut at the knees by the GOP. He and his supporters are a malignant cancer

  23. Lizzie the use of “tomoz” is really bizarre and a bit unprofessional. It’s the kind of informal Snapchat language you’d not expect to see in this context. Not that it has any bearing on the substance of the fiasco of course

  24. In a nutshell

    Bill Kristol retweeted
    Garry Kasparov
    1h1 hour ago
    Garry Kasparov ‏@Kasparov63
    Trump is a moral and political failure, a suicide bomber trying to take the American political system down with him. Don’t let him.

  25. lizzie

    I’ve only encountered it as a substitute for tomorrow. It’s a spillover usage from texting.

    Texting is, of course, a legitimate form of language, where the needs of the medium dictate changes in convention.

  26. Shiftaling

    ‘Lizzie the use of “tomoz” is really bizarre and a bit unprofessional. It’s the kind of informal Snapchat language you’d not expect to see in this context. ‘

    The context is an email, from an IT guy. He is communicating with his peers using the language of his peers. It is thus neither unprofessional or bizarre.

  27. So … it all becomes clear now … Brandis has decided that “consultation” can include the possibility of zero consultation, Frydenberg has decided that “CO2 reduction” can include the possibility of zero CO2 reduction, and Turnbull has decided that “government” can include the possibility of zero government.

  28. [

    context is an email, from an IT guy. He is communicating with his peers using the language of his peers. It is thus neither unprofessional or bizarre.
    Have to agree with zoomster
    Hangover from the days when all variable names have to be less than 6 letters.
    Absoluz is not ok; 7 letters; absolz would be ok.

  29. Shiftaling

    Language changes gradually. This means what is acceptable usage and what is not is subjective to begin with.

    I was taught to use ‘one’ instead of ‘you’ and I occasionally still do (context is all). However, it sounds increasingly clunky. Similarly, some people find the use of ‘z’ instead of ‘s’ in words like ‘organize’ totally unacceptable; others, like myself, are so unphased by it that we shift between the two.

  30. Lizzie

    question: Is ‘tomoz’ a stand alone substitution for ‘tomorrow’, or can we just write ‘z’ for the final syllable of any multi-syllable word now?

    Don’t know….soz!

  31. On ABC24 Terry Bairns, the Saturday Liberal shill, says he’s confused about the legal position of the Solicitor-General.

    This must be the standard Liberal position because Brandis doesn’t seem to understand either.

  32. ‘Tomoz’ isn’t an IT term, it’s more of a teen slang term, of the same vintage as ‘amazeballs’.

    I’m no prescriptive linguist, I just find that particular register strikes me as overly informal in this context.

  33. zoomster @ #40 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 9:30 am

    ‘Lizzie the use of “tomoz” is really bizarre and a bit unprofessional. It’s the kind of informal Snapchat language you’d not expect to see in this context. ‘
    The context is an email, from an IT guy. He is communicating with his peers using the language of his peers. It is thus neither unprofessional or bizarre.

    Must be a sub-culture in IT that I am unaware of.

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