Morgan state polling: October 2016

Roy Morgan’s latest round of state polling finds Labor sneaking ahead in New South Wales, and building on a modest lead in Western Australia five months out from an election. UPDATE: With further state results now from Essential as well.

Roy Morgan has unloaded one of its occasional national polls of state voting intention, conducted by SMS between September 30 and October 2. UPDATE: And now Essential Research has produced <a href="essential-report_statevoting_sep2016“>state voting intention numbers aggregated from its polling for July through September. The following relates the results for both state by state.

New South Wales: Morgan has Labor taking a 51.5-48.5 lead, after trailing 50.5-49.5 in August, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 31.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three). Sample: 1045. Essential has it at 52-48, unchanged from April to June, from primary votes of Coalition 44%, Labor 37% and Greens 9%, all unchanged. Sample: 3867.

Victoria: Perhaps surprisingly, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 39% (up two), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 13% (down half) and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 6% (down one). Sample: 1306. Essential has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 40% (down one) and Greens 12% (steady). Sample: 2386.

Queensland: Morgin finds Labor leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result, with primary votes of Labor 35.5% (down one), Liberal National Party 33.5% (down five), Greens 12% (up 2.5%) and One Nation 10.5% (up two). Sample: 714. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 37% (steady), Liberal National Party 38% (down two) and Greens 8% (steady). Sample: 2880.

Western Australia: Five months out from the election, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 39% (down two), Labor 36.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (unchanged) and One Nation 6% (up one, although the party is not registered in the state at this stage). Sample: 559. Essential Research has Labor’s lead increasing from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 38% (down four), Labor 39% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Sample: 1115.

South Australia: Morgan has the Liberals leading 54-46, down from 55-45 last time, from primary votes of Liberal 36.5% (down one), Labor 24.5% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 19.5% (down 1.5%) and Greens 11% (up 1.5%). Sample: 665. Essential has a very different result, with Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 38% (up four), Liberal 30% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 16% (down four) and Greens 7% (steady). Sample: 942.

Tasmania: The Liberals are up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down three to 33%, the Greens are up half to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network is steady at 6%. Sample: 367.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

10 comments on “Morgan state polling: October 2016”

  1. Apologies if this is off-topic, but thought this may be of interest to readers here. There is a great interview between John Howard and Rupert Murdoch on’s youtube channel at the moment, where they discuss Newspoll and the place of the Greens in Australian politics. Worth watching for some insight into Murdochs view of the current political climate, given he is one of the more influential figures in the landscape.

  2. Does this result for labor in NSW combined with Bairds backflip on the greyhound racing ban mean that Baird will be replaced before the 2019 state election? Or do you think the liberals have learned from their leadership tinkering at the federal level?

  3. Hmmm. I’m intrigued that Coalition was down 5 (3 of them specifically the the 2 point drift to One Nation is utterly expected), Labor was down 1 and Greens up 2.5% in Queensland over that period. That was before Labor decided to class the Coal Mine as an essential project after a standard issue Courier Mail “lawfare” / Greens set of articles. That’s about the effect I’d expect to emerge over the next week or so. Still I suspect this gives Palaszczuk some confidence that CPV was a good choice even given the emergence of One Nation, the Greens are unlikely to win any seat in Queensland but their preferences are important in many of the contests.

  4. Weird that WA has a smaller sample than SA, despite:

    Having a higher population.

    The result being closer, and thus MoE being more likely to influence things.

    The election being much sooner.

    Regardless, this puts Labor ahead in Federal, the 4 largest states, and presumably NT.
    Liberals are ahead in the two smallest states.

    Still no polling from the area that has an election 4 days.

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