Roy Morgan has unloaded one of its occasional national polls of state voting intention, conducted by SMS between September 30 and October 2. UPDATE: And now Essential Research has produced <a href="essential-report_statevoting_sep2016“>state voting intention numbers aggregated from its polling for July through September. The following relates the results for both state by state.
New South Wales: Morgan has Labor taking a 51.5-48.5 lead, after trailing 50.5-49.5 in August, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 31.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three). Sample: 1045. Essential has it at 52-48, unchanged from April to June, from primary votes of Coalition 44%, Labor 37% and Greens 9%, all unchanged. Sample: 3867.
Victoria: Perhaps surprisingly, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 55.5-44.5 to 56.5-43.5, from primary votes of Labor 39% (up two), Coalition 36% (steady), Greens 13% (down half) and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 6% (down one). Sample: 1306. Essential has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 38% (steady), Coalition 40% (down one) and Greens 12% (steady). Sample: 2386.
Queensland: Morgin finds Labor leading 52-48 after a 50-50 result, with primary votes of Labor 35.5% (down one), Liberal National Party 33.5% (down five), Greens 12% (up 2.5%) and One Nation 10.5% (up two). Sample: 714. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 37% (steady), Liberal National Party 38% (down two) and Greens 8% (steady). Sample: 2880.
Western Australia: Five months out from the election, Morgan has Labor’s lead out from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 39% (down two), Labor 36.5% (up one), Greens 12.5% (unchanged) and One Nation 6% (up one, although the party is not registered in the state at this stage). Sample: 559. Essential Research has Labor’s lead increasing from 51-49 to 53-47, from primary votes of Liberal-Nationals 38% (down four), Labor 39% (steady) and Greens 11% (up one). Sample: 1115.
South Australia: Morgan has the Liberals leading 54-46, down from 55-45 last time, from primary votes of Liberal 36.5% (down one), Labor 24.5% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 19.5% (down 1.5%) and Greens 11% (up 1.5%). Sample: 665. Essential has a very different result, with Labor leading 54-46, up from 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 38% (up four), Liberal 30% (steady), Nick Xenophon Team 16% (down four) and Greens 7% (steady). Sample: 942.
Tasmania: The Liberals are up 1.5% to 39%, Labor is down three to 33%, the Greens are up half to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network is steady at 6%. Sample: 367.