BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-10-12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  3. Roger Miller
    “If it encourages Repugs to spend less elswhere because they are propping up Red states it is a big win for the Dems.”

    The Repugs have bailed on Trump, and are shoring up their numbers in Congress. So yes, if they (GOP) divert funds to red states, the spend in Texas could be a strategic move by the Dems. A bit too mind-gamey in my book.

  4. Turnbull reckons that we are supporting the Mosul attack in the interests of ‘freedom’.
    That is excellent.
    Now comes the $64 dollar question: the freedom of whom to do what, exactly?
    Silence.

  6. Turnbull’s big problem is that Labor has textual evidence that Abbott was horse trading on softer gun laws.
    Leyenhjelm provided copies of texts sent by then Prime Minister Abbott to Leyenhjelm to Ashley Gillen this morning.
    It is why Turnbull’s answers in QT tends to begin the ‘Speaking personally…

  8. Darn

    They shouldn’t be surprised. He did warn them.

    Whether Talc’s got a pound of flesh left to extract is a question.

    Leyonhjelm will keep trying.

    ‘How to make an enemy 1.01’

  10. Guytaur
    “I agree with your point. Basically as was pointed out Democratic strategists are not stupid. ”

    I’m sure the likes of Josh Lyman, Donna Moss & co are the world’s smartest electoral strategists. But if I was Senate candidate Maggie Hassan slugging it out in the tiny state of New Hampshire, I’d wonder if that $1.5 million would be better spent on my race… rather than being a drop in the bucket in Texas.

  12. Yep. Comsidering domestic construction doesnt usually have unionised workforce. Least of all the cfmeu

    Rowan retweeted
    Lisa Chesters MP
    6m6 minutes ago
    Lisa Chesters MP ‏@LMChesters
    Seriously?! PM

  20. Very droll BW
    The choice of the name Operation Adler by Hitler was thought that he had some special kind of respect for the British. However, the same name was given to a couple of other German operations during WW2 so who knows? Needless to say the first OA did not work thanks to the RAF and radar.

  23. Tricot,

    Just about every one of the current Government’s Plans could be known as “Operation Addled” though.

  24. @ Dan – I doubt it.

    Labor governments become embattled when they are on 52 2PP or lower.

    Liberal governments surely aren’t embattled until they are on 45 2PP or less?

  27. Should Democrats use Donald Trump against other Republicans or use other Republicans against Trump?

    That question is dividing Democrats this year, as Hillary Clinton’s campaign has sought to drive a wedge between Trump as the GOP standard bearer at the same time Democrats in down ballot races have been more interested in chaining the unpopular Trump to their Republican opponents.

    Now, with Trump underwater in almost every poll and Republicans retreating from him, Clinton’s campaign and its surrogates are aligning their own message with that of down-ballot Democrats.

    “Donald Trump is becoming more unhinged by the day, and that is increasing prospects for Democrats further down the ballot,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Monday while announcing millions of dollars in new aid for House and Senate candidates.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-shifts-message-she-eyes-congressional-takeover-n667976?cid=public-rss_20161018&utm_source=web&utm_medium=twitter

  29. “Donald Trump is becoming more unhinged by the day, and that is increasing prospects for Democrats further down the ballot,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said Monday while announcing millions of dollars in new aid for House and Senate candidates.”

    Great! When Hillary becomes President, there’ll be less chance of a hostile Congress.

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