BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-10-12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Trump is Karma biting the Republicans on the bum after decades of playing the politics of downward envy, dogwhistling to racists and other bigots and prosecuting class warfare while accusing their opponents of doing it. It can only be hoped that the destruction he wreaks is largely restricted to his party.

    The political right in Australia and other polities should take note.

  2. zoomster

    I was taught to use ‘one’ instead of ‘you’ and I occasionally still do (context is all).

    My understanding is that ‘one’ stands, in effect, for anyone, and is used where ‘you’ would be inappropriate. Used instead of ‘I’, by such as Prince Charles, certainly sounds old-fashioned now.

  6. Kohler describes Truffles “NBN” as a “turkey” ..which I agree with (or should that be: with which I agree?) ..anyway, he’s only reflecting on the financial aspects of Truffle’s wreckage & makes no comment on the technical shortcomings of the pile of garbage..

    ..put together, the financial disaster + the technical disaster add up to a turkey that is already dead ..covered in maggots ..and stinking like a tannery on a hot day..

    Truffle’s fraudband is the biggest act of social, financial and technological vandalism this country has ever seen..

    The Mad Monk (when he regains the PMship) should drop his love affair with ‘sir’s’ and ‘dames’ and bring back hanging, drawing and quartering for acts of treachery & Truffles should be the first beneficiary..

  9. Spot on!!

    Bruce Haigh
    9h9 hours ago
    Bruce Haigh ‏@bruce_haigh
    Not to put too fine a point on it, Brandis is a weak man, a liar, and not worthy to be on our payroll. An activist, f@@king our democracy

  10. From previous thread.

    briefly @ #2202 Friday, October 14, 2016 at 11:42 pm

    Those fault KK do not cite her own deficiencies. Instead they cite the errors of someone else – her husband. She is therefore being defined not by who she is or what she has done (her own merit) but by her status as a “wife”.
    In the same way, you define her not by who she is or what she has done (her own merit) but by her status as a “friend ” of another person, Bill Shorten.
    That is sexist. Face it.

    That is simply untrue and you should be aware of it being untrue.
    KK has form from an encounter with the Fair Work Commission for a start.

    Your understanding of ‘sexism, seems to be drawn from another WA poster who sees it everywhere.

    The only other candidates I had heard of were women. How is it sexist to prefer one woman over another?

  11. Shiftaling

    I didn’t say it was IT speak. I said it was the language of the writer and his peers.

    Context is all; it depends on who the writer (who never expected his emails would turn up in the public domain) thought he was communicating with. If it was with a person of similar age to himself (and most IT guys I work with are under 30; my nephew, who works for a major firm in Melbourne, is 20) then the language is appropriate.

  12. Shiftaling

    ‘I mean, can we expect an email that says “the website has totes gone down, peeps!”’

    From one guy to another in the IT department, why not?

  13. “…dead ..covered in maggots ..and stinking like a tannery on a hot day.”

    A more ‘colourful’ way of putting it than ‘dead, buried and cremated’. Maybe a resurrected Mad Monk could adopt that expression.

  14. The Trump monster is the creation of the American media ..obsessed with reporting the “sideshow” rather than the substance ..they gifted Trump $millions of free promotion which his campaign gleefully accepted & then ramped up the rhetoric even more..

    This vicious cycle fed upon itself ..and fed into the dissatisfaction & anger within the US community. The media knew exactly what they were doing & promoted a man accurately described by Robert DeNero as a “punk” (amongst other things..)

    The GOP nervously endorsed this wholly un-suitable candidate instead of contesting his candidature, as even they know they should have done. Now, of course, it’s too late & they are shouting “EVERY MAN (not woman, of course) FOR THEMSELVES!!” ..as they head for Bushfire’s lifeboats.

    Trump is the US media’s monster first & foremost ..just as Abbott was/is the Aussie media’s mad-man..

  15. I must be old fashioned. I am not keen on texting, although it is useful for conveying quick messages or for communicating with someone I would prefer not to talk to. I expect that would be useful for lying. When I text, I type out full words and gramatical phrses on a tiny virtual keyboard with fat clumsy fingers, so I find it rather tedious. Can’t do that two-thumb thing I see young people using.

  16. Another from the previous thread.
    gippslander @ #2206 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 12:23 am

    For those younger than 50, Don Chipp was the Nick Xenophon of the 70s and 80s. A rejected Lib cabinet minister, he founded the Lib Lite group called the Australian Democrats. Like Xenophon a pseud of the 1st order!

    Hahaha… yes!
    My good friend Joan Child and some of her colleagues nicknamed him ‘phoney’ Chipp and would raise a chorus of ‘phooooneeeey’ whenever he rose to speak in the HoR.
    He was apparently comfortable being a Liberal Minister during the Vietnam War, including Minister for the Navy, but purported to grow a conscience later.
    Contemptible. But, just like with the Greens and X, plenty of suckers fell for his bs.

  18. Steve777

    I’m not practised at two thumbs, either, and I find it easier to use the words that come naturally. However, the automatic suggestions are quicker, for a fast exchange of messages, I find.

  21. Steve777 and Lizzie
    I use the SwiftKey app which has very good predictive text based upon one’s previous sms and email comings and goings.

  24. Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Tony Abbott is due to address around 400 NSW Lib party members re party reform around 11.15am aedt – we’ll take you there live (@ash_gillon)
    4:11 PM – 14 Oct 2016
    2 RETWEETS2 LIKES

  26. “Maybe a resurrected Mad Monk could adopt that expression.”
    ah, religious vilification again. section 15(d) ? religious intolerance. LOL. it never ends. No matter.
    I don’t think D. Trump is a product of the media, as 40% of Americans feel left out and hopeless about how things are changing underneath their feet and where American/the world is heading.
    In a sense it’s like the rise of Pauline Hanson. But definitely when conservatives’ values are continually sneered at by Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore on The Project and Tony JOnes on Q&A, and other media – it sends people the other way. Now I think P. Hanson is too black and white and troublesome in that way, but you can see that being sneered at does not help bring people together.
    Mrs Clinton called the 40% deplorables – now that does not bring about inclusiveness. Words are powerful.

  27. But definitely when conservatives’ values are continually sneered at by Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore on The Project and Tony JOnes on Q&A, and other media – it sends people the other way.

    Blown in all directions by the wind?
    I would lurve to hear some conservative values (whatever they are) being sneered at.

  28. Mrs Clinton called the 40% deplorables – now that does not bring about inclusiveness

    No she didn’t. That’s yet another lie being perpetuated by a side of politics that has no conception of the difference between objective (provable) truth and any old shit that will serve their rhetorical purposes.

    Initially, she said ‘half’ of his supporters and then went on to talk about the other half as people who felt lost and abandoned by a rapidly changing world. She subsequently said that ‘half’ was wrong and it was a much smaller number.

    Now, PO, if you are happy to say that certain supporters of Trump, such as the head of the KKK and the psycho conspiracy theory purveyor Alex Jones, are not in a basket of deplorables, go ahead. For me, I am happy to describe a number of out and proud Trump supporters, who he is not prepared to disown, as utterly deplorable and much worse.

  29. Lizzie
    The Project and Q&A are very anti-conservative. We all know that.

    But they do love Malcolm Turnbull, seems odd, but I think it’s because he looks right in a way Abbott and Shorten don’t. Beautiful suits, Apple watch, lovely shoes, very well read, very good diction, likes opera and collects artwork, urbane, a mansion on The Harbour. He’s everything they think a PM should be.

  30. “Mad Monk” as religious vilification? That was one of Gerard Henderson’s favourites. Of course, “Monk” is a play on the name “Abbott” and “Mad” is a reference to both his volatile temprament and his presence out on the fringe of the mainstream right (although the ‘fringe’ has since shifted even further out). It could possibly be a reference to his time as a seminarian (which would be innacurate – a priest is not a monk) but I don’t think so.

  31. We all know that.

    Sorry, but “we” is not inclusive of the whole community.
    And MT’s diction is not as good as you think. Listen to his pronunciation of “chowdren”.

  32. TPOF

    “Now, PO, if you are happy to say that certain supporters of Trump, such as the head of the KKK and the psycho conspiracy theory purveyor Alex Jones, are not in a basket of deplorables, go ahead. ”

    I did not say that at all. That seems unkind of you.

  33. Lizzie
    He has better diction than B. Shorten or T. Abbott, though. He has a smoother presentation overall, clothes wise, etc. It’s why he had those incredible favourable ratings last year. I think it impresses many people still. He seems a cut above.

  34. prettyone @ #82 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 10:49 am

    TPOF
    “Now, PO, if you are happy to say that certain supporters of Trump, such as the head of the KKK and the psycho conspiracy theory purveyor Alex Jones, are not in a basket of deplorables, go ahead. ”
    I did not say that at all. That seems unkind of you.

    Which part of the word ‘if’ did you have trouble with?

  38. Davidwh:

    I do not feel sorry for Turnbull. In the same way the Republicans own the error of Trump, so too do the Liberals own the error of Abbott.

  39. ” It could possibly be a reference to his time as a seminarian (which would be innacurate – a priest is not a monk) but I don’t think so.”

    Very surely it is reference to his time as a trainee priest. I should think that is common knowledge as everyone knows he is Catholic and has always been sneered at for that from certain quarters.

    Indeed, not many people these days know that “abbott” is a religious position. Priest and pope, but not abbott or say cardinal eg. Monk, though, is a well recognised common term.
    So “mad monk” is a religious slur.

  40. For all practical purposes, Malcolm Turnbull might as well be Tony Abbott in a better suit. He might still privately believe that action is required to mitigate climate change, or that we need to transition to renewable energy, or that Parliament should legislate same sex marriage. However, even if he still wants to, he is unable to move on any of these things. Lately, he has revived the War on Renewables, has boasted on the world stage about our treatment of asylum seekers and is an ardent advocate of a plebiscite he opposed little over a year ago.

    He either believes his nonsense or he’s like a barrister (which he is) defending a client he knows is guilty.

  41. Davidwh

    while Abbott tries to lead the party from the backbench

    It’s a bit of a classic the ‘Captains Pick’ man is now campaigning for Liberal Party internal democracy.

  45. CNBC
    CNBC – Verified account ‏@CNBC

    BREAKING: CIA preparing for possible cyber strike against Russia amid alleged election interference – @NBCNews http://nbcnews.to/2dQHFE1
    NBC News
    NBC News
    Embedded image
    The CIA is prepping a possible cyber strike against Russia

    The retaliation for Russia’s attacks on the U.S. election, if launched, would harass and “embarrass” the Russians.
    View on web
    3:29 PM – 14 Oct 2016
    333 RETWEETS297 LIKES

  46. I have recently been forced to listen to Howard’s voice in frequent adverts for the Menzies stuff.
    I hadn’t realised before how very nasal his voice is, and how extremely artificial his laugh sounds. Obviously not PM material 😉

  50. Anne Coulter is a guest on Real Time tonight. Will be interesting to see if she is still onboard Team Trump or like other neo-cons like Kristol is refusing to endorse his campaign.

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