BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-10-12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  2. “coupled with his madness”

    He’s not mad. If you knew anyone with a mental illness such as bipolar or schizophrenia you’d know what that troubling condition really means.
    “mad” is really a poor term to describe anyone, with a mental illness or not.

  7. So, assuming Trump’s advisers have half a brain between them.

    They have fabricated at least 3 of the sexual abuse claims against Trump.

    They deliberately chose to make claims that can be comprehensively disproved by Trump, either with recordings showing the couple of times he didn’t do anything Trumplike, or because he has an alibi and wasn’t even there.

    The result, people who might consider voting Trump think that all of the claims are lies, and are part of the UN/Democrat/Republican/Mexican conspiracy to discredit Trump and rig the debates/election.

    If they haven’t done that, they are highly paid idiots.

  10. kop @ #104 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 11:20 am

    help!
    I am using Safari and I cannot pick up post numbering. Any suggestions?

    You won’t get that with Safari. You have to do what I do and download Firefox and then add Musrum’s magic add-on script to see the numbers. I think Musrum has done the same with chrome. I use Safari as my general web browser though.

  11. Good morning all,

    Huge story re the failure of the insurance industry in this country and especially those under the umbrella of big banks.

    ASIC is showing clearly how little control and oversight it has over the financial services industry in Australia and therefore how it has let the big players run riot and simply make up the rules as they go along and treat their customers with contempt.

    How many more times can the banks cry ” we are sorry ” ?

    The new revelations also raise the questiona as to why ASIC did not release the information until pushed and why it did not at least provide the detail to the committee last week before the bankers were questioned.

    Very cosy arrangement in place between the players and the regulator.

    Time to ramp up the pressure on Turnbull once again.

    Like the marriage equality debate Bill Shorten and labor are ahead of the game.

    Good policy in both cases by labor is now showing itself to be good politics as well.

    Cheers and a good day to all.

  12. prettyone @ #102 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 11:18 am

    “coupled with his madness”
    He’s not mad. If you knew anyone with a mental illness such as bipolar or schizophrenia you’d know what that troubling condition really means.
    “mad” is really a poor term to describe anyone, with a mental illness or not.

    I use “mad” in the colloquial sense of behaving oddly and erratically, making poor decisions etc. It is not a medical diagnosis as you would have it.

  15. prettyone
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 10:25 am

    you can see that being sneered at does not help bring people together….

    Abbott did a lot worse than raise a sneer. He set out to criminalize the
    Muslim community. The result is the appearance of at least three political parties who run on overtly anti-Islamic platforms and a marked increase in the incidence of violence and abuse directed against people taken to be Muslims.

    When the Tories stop whinging about themselves and instead repudiate the hate-making tactics of Abbott and his cohort then they can be taken seriously.

  17. Bemused, were you in Henty, as I was after Hotham moved in one direction, and I moved in the other?
    There is a story that someone was walking down Atherton Rd, and saw a house with the front window down, and two female legs disappearing into the house:- it was Joan Child collecting the postal vote of one of her CPA cronies who was too ill to get to the front door!
    Ah! the sight of Joan in pursuit of a voter would go down well in one of those TV nature documentaries! She is an example to all young politicians.

  18. Depraved means perverted, Briefly.

    I think that’s your “hate Abbott” mind speaking. I understand what it is like to dislike someone so that you will think anything bad of them. The trick is to not verbalise it or put it in writing, because inevitably people are made up of good bits and not so good bits and to designate them as simply “mad” or “depraved” is going to be extreme.

  19. I see that Christ “the cutprice Christ” Ulhmann is copping a pasting on the Guardian. Almost 700 comments and counting in a few hours.

  22. gippslander @ #117 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 11:43 am

    Bemused, were you in Henty, as I was after Hotham moved in one direction, and I moved in the other?
    There is a story that someone was walking down Atherton Rd, and saw a house with the front window down, and two female legs disappearing into the house:- it was Joan Child collecting the postal vote of one of her CPA cronies who was too ill to get to the front door!
    Ah! the sight of Joan in pursuit of a voter would go down well in one of those TV nature documentaries! She is an example to all young politicians.

    Yes I lived in the Henty electorate and was one of a group of young men (mainly) who were among Joan’s greatest supporters.
    She was a legend! Truly inspiring.
    I later moved to the Bruce electorate but, due to boundary shifts, found myself in Chisholm for a time with another great female Member of Parliament in Anna Burke.

  24. I loved Uhlman’s defense:

    “I get criticised by the right because I am married to a Labor member, and I get criticised by the Left because of the consistent factual errors on my articles which make the Liberals look good, renewables look bad etc. Because I’m criticised by both, I can’t possibly be biased.”

  25. prettyone
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 11:43 am

    His policies of exemplary, political punishment of refugees; his willingness to annul citizenship and condemn such ex-citizens to exile; his approach to our GLBTIQ brothers and sisters are examples of his depravity. There are others.

    You may not like the use of the term. Too bad. It’s accurate as far as I’m concerned.

  26. `In that direction,’ the Cat said, waving its right paw round, `lives a Hatter: and in that direction,’ waving the other paw, `lives a March Hare. Visit either you like: they’re both mad.’

    `But I don’t want to go among mad people,’ Alice remarked.

    `Oh, you can’t help that,’ said the Cat: `we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.’

    `How do you know I’m mad?’ said Alice.

    `You must be,’ said the Cat, `or you wouldn’t have come here.’

    Alice didn’t think that proved it at all; however, she went on `And how do you know that you’re mad?’

    `To begin with,’ said the Cat, `a dog’s not mad. You grant that?’

    `I suppose so,’ said Alice.

    `Well, then,’ the Cat went on, `you see, a dog growls when it’s angry, and wags its tail when it’s pleased. Now I growl when I’m pleased, and wag my tail when I’m angry. Therefore I’m mad.’

    `I call it purring, not growling,’ said Alice.

    `Call it what you like,’ said the Cat.

  27. scott bales @ #124 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 11:56 am

    I loved Uhlman’s defense:
    “I get criticised by the right because I am married to a Labor member, and I get criticised by the Left because of the consistent factual errors on my articles which make the Liberals look good, renewables look bad etc. Because I’m criticised by both, I can’t possibly be biased.”

    That pretty much says it all: Criticism from the right is based on prejudice; criticism from the left is based on fact.

  28. I don’t recall if BK tagged this article, but worth a read and some good comments too.

    Telstra’s fight to keep mobile network to itself

    Australia’s telecos finally got back to what they do best this week – publicly sledging each other over competition issues.

    No wonder the gloves are off. The competition watchdog sent shockwaves through the sector last month when it launched an inquiry into domestic mobile roaming services – including the crucial question of whether Telstra should be forced to share its prized regional network with its competitors at commercial rates.

    For Telstra’s rivals, Vodafone and TPG, the action by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission represents a prime opportunity to prise open Telstra’s lock on mobile signals around Australia and its unrivalled status as the offerer of Australia’s biggest network. For Telstra, it represents a threat so stark that it is mobilising its army of 1.4 million retail shareholders and laying out battle plans.

    It is a fight that is pitting a big one-time monopoly against smaller upstarts, and retail shareholders against regional customers. And it is now threatening to spill over into the political realm.

    Telstra’s strategy was clear at its annual meeting this week.

    “For those of you not aware, the declaration of domestic mobile roaming would allow our competitors to utilise the Telstra network in areas where we have invested and provide coverage and they have not,” Telstra chairman John Mullen told the company’s assembled throngs of shareholders.

    “If the ACCC decides to declare mobile roaming, it would absolutely be at the expense of you, the Telstra shareholders.” Later, in his own speech, Telstra chief executive Andy Penn mentioned four times that Vodafone is a “foreign company”.

    Telstra’s shareholders heard the call loud and clear.

    “Their shares are worth one cent! Ours are $5! They want to coat-tail with us and you people will all pay the price. Write to the ACCC! Write to your representatives. It’s really really serious,” one shareholder urged his fellow investors at the meeting in Sydney.
    —

    Much more, but you get the drift.
    One of the comments really nails the source of the problem.

    NJHOct 15 2016 at 5:32am
    As a Telstra shareholder I understand the concerns about giving other telcos access to Telstra’s infrastructure.

    But effective mobile coverage in the bush must now surely count as essential infrastructure. Here we are seeing the failure of government to guarantee that infrastructure, so it has now descended into a commercial brawl: never pretty.

    The roots of the problem lie far back, when the Howard government privatised Telstra. Hindsight (and foresight in some cases) suggests that the physical structure – wires and towers – should have remained as a government responsibility (because there’s no profit in it) and the content-provision element of Telstra de-nationalized. That way we’d have got the best of both worlds.

    But no. Economic ideology won the day. Privatise the lot, even if it doesn’t work out quite how you wanted.

    I have said before and I will say it again, the mobile towers and other infrastructure should be owned by NBN (or a like body) with all of the present mobile phone companies given access on an equal footing.

    Then investment decisions could be made in the national interest rather than narrow commercial interests.

    We had a chance once to split Telstra so that a wholesale part would run all the infrastructure in this manner. That horse has long bolted.

  30. I think “the Mad Monk” refers to Rasputin, who,like Abbott, was extremely hard to finally kill off! (in Rasputin’s case, physically, in Abbott’s, politically). There is also a reference in Jane Austin’s Northanger Abbey to a Gothic horror story “the Monk”, and I think Abbott would fit in well in a Gothic Horror novel! Thank goodness he kept his budgie smugglers in place.

  31. gippslander @ #130 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    I think “the Mad Monk” refers to Rasputin, who,like Abbott, was extremely hard to finally kill off! (in Rasputin’s case, physically, in Abbott’s, politically). There is also a reference in Jane Austin’s Northanger Abbey to a Gothic horror story “the Monk”, and I think Abbott would fit in well in a Gothic Horror novel! Thank goodness he kept his budgie smugglers in place.

    Abbott is a good fit for a horror story.

  33. Adrian

    Helen Razer skewers one of the worst programs to ever feature on the ABC

    She might ‘skewer’ it but she also, as usual, labours her point, and goes on and on and on.

  34. It looks pretty certain that Hillary will zap Trump, but the future is not all that bright for progressives.

    The Dems are struggling in several Senate races they need for a majority. It seems that the Repugs are transferring funds from Trump to vulnerable Senate candidates. On top of that, US voters are reluctant to give power to all three arms of government at the same time. Checks and balances.

    If Hillary does not have a Senate majority, the Repugs can stonewall Supreme Court appointments for the next two years when half a dozen very marginal Democratic senators come up for election. Then it’s all over red rover. Clear Republican majorities in both houses after midterm elections when Democratic voting turnout is traditionally low.
    If the Senate numbers are 50-50 after November 8, Hillary will face an early crisis in the middle of next year when there will be an election in Virginia to fill the Senate seat vacated by Tim Paine.

  37. Adrian

    Silvia’s Table is boring and slow-moving and Silvia is no actress, nor much of a conversationalist. And what’s with the slow-mo views of the guests masticating their food? Frankly, I’d rather have Annabel, who at least has done some research on her subject and doesn’t pretend to be a sex goddess.

  38. Toorak Toff
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    If the Senate numbers are 50/50, the VP will have the casting vote. The chances are reasonably good that the Democrats will pick up a net 4 Senate seats, bringing their numbers to 50.

  39. TT

    All of that may occur. But it would still be much better to have Hillary in the White House than Trump. It is also possible that in their desperation to stymie progress the repugs may actually overshoot – as they did in 1995 under Gingrich.

    It’s pretty dysfunctional at the moment, but it can get to the point where the Democrats may actually strike back by re-energising the genuine Sandersistas (not the neo-Stalinist parasites who jumped in). They are there waiting to be organised. And Hillary is quite capable of moving to the left if she has no other option.

  41. tpof @ #135 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    I think someone earlier mentioned the Trump push-back against allegations. It’s good to find someone with such an excellent memory to assist.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-defended-leeds_us_58014fe2e4b06e047594fa91

    I love the footnote to that article:

    Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.

  43. Player One

    Depends on who Annabel is visiting, but yes, IMV Silvia’s show is that bad. It misses out on every criterion. I feel sorry for the guests, who have to pretend to enjoy themselves.

  45. tpof

    That pretty much says it all: Criticism from the right is based on prejudice; criticism from the left is based on fact.

    Uhlmann joins all those RWers complaining about reality’s left wing bias.

  49. ‘Frankly, I’d rather have Annabel, who at least has done some research on her subject and doesn’t pretend to be a sex goddess.’

    Yes it’s that bad – totally agree.
    And I like Razer, even if I don’t always agree with her. She is the perfect antidote to the bland pontificatings that most journos provide these days.

  50. bemused
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 1:14 pm

    Guterres is a Socialist from Europe with a record of administrative and political achievement in pursuit of the legal and humanist goals of the international community. Naturally, he will be despised for his success.

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