The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.
Briefly
I saw a post that the Clinton campaign was weighing up and advert buy in Texas.
Can’t remember where or would link it.
Rob Broekenshire MLA
Guytaur
“I saw a post that the Clinton campaign was weighing up and advert buy in Texas.”
That would be truly remarkable, to have Texas in play. But apart from bragging rights, there is no real electoral dividend to going after solid ‘red’ states like Texas. The Democratic campaign should be focusing on House and Senate races, not racking up more and more states in the electoral college.
I have a pretty low opinion on how important Turnbull’s principles are to him, but I do not believe he would cave in to the gun lobby.
Say what you like about many of Howard’s policies/eyebrows, but he correctly identified gun violence as the avoidable tragedy it is, and took steps to prevent it. He did not do it for political gain, and he didn’t approach it as a partisan political issue.
Not that it would likely mean much. NX’s quote on twitter
“Senator Leyonhjelm so wrong on gun control”
https://twitter.com/nick_xenophon/status/545420709371994112
Hinch wants “stronger gun control” according to the 3aw website
http://www.3aw.com.au/news/senate-candiates-derryn-hinch-and-ricky-muir-have-friendly-debate-in-studio-20160621-gpos7y.html
Lab+Greens are no doubt going to oppose it.
Not going to pass, thankfully. This will just be another way for Turnbull to shed some credibility, piss off all but the far right of his supporters, accomplish nothing, and then backflip in a month’s time.
Turnbull isn’t trying to appease the gun nuts he’s trying to appease Leyonhjelm, because he really really needs a win on the ABCC or he looks like an idiot. He’ll take this to a joint sitting if he can’t get it past the Senate.
A Joint Sitting is 150 + 76 for 226 total members (an absolute majority is required for a Joint Sitting so absences etc are irrelevant), that means Turnbull needs 114 votes. He has 76 Coalition MPs and 30 Coalition Senators for 106. He also has One Nation (4) and Cathy McGown (1) which is 111 votes. He needs another 3, the absence of Bob Day is a blow here , as he’d be a guaranteed +1. So he either needs 3 of the Leyonhjelm, Lambie , Hench, Katter or Wilkie (which is unlikely for Katter and Lambie and about as likely as getting the Greens for Wilkie) so that’s probably a dead end. So if he can’t get Xenophon on side he’s kinda boned here too due to the rules requiring an absolute majority (it’d be doable if it was just a majority of those present). That means if Turnbull can’t get it through the Senate he’s got no real chance of getting it through a joint sitting either.
If he can get NXT + One Nation to agree he’s got a path though through a joint sitting, even if he can’t get it through the Senate.
*but getting NXT and One Nation to agree and failing to get it through the Senate would take epic incompetence (he’d only need 1 more vote).
I’m finding it difficult to deal with the viciousness of Turnbull and his group against the Unions. It doesn’t come over as ideology, it’s pure vengeance.
“Turnbull isn’t trying to appease the gun nuts he’s trying to appease Leyonhjelm”
It’s a distinction without a difference. Leyonhjelm IS a gun nut.
“because he really really needs a win on the ABCC or he looks like an idiot.”
That’s a foregone conclusion, whatever happens.
And herein is the fundamental issue for the US election.
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/788095332286476289
Hmm. Actually if he fails to get it through the Senate , he may opt not to call a Joint Sitting, since failing to pass the legislation at it would be deeply embarrassing , I’d expect it to get quietly dropped if they can’t get it through the Senate and don’t have NXT on board for a Joint Sitting. Calling a joint sitting to get denied is the kind of thing that murders your electoral credibility. Of course that means if he does call a Joint Sitting its because he believes he has the numbers. Interesting times ahead.
guytaur
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 10:47 am
Briefly
I saw a post that the Clinton campaign was weighing up and advert buy in Texas.
The Democrats could do worse. If they can shift behavior in Texas, even over a sequence of elections, they will be strong enough to shift the whole political framework.
Packer shanghaid?
It’s worth noting that Presidential spends have down ticket effects, if the party isn’t at war, so spending on Presidential advertising can bump House/ Senate numbers. Parties are linked in the minds of voters. So flipping states on a presidential campaign isn’t “wasting” money.
(You get the same effect in Australia, where parties running for HoR in a seat get a small Senate bump which can actually be quiet significant if you run in every seat)
I would write off NXT as a possibility of supporting the ABCC. It would end the party (i.e. return it to a 1 man band).
The ABCC is an attack on NXT voters, more than it is an attack on Labor or Green voters.
The main occupations of people living in Mayo are 15.1% Technicians & trades workers, 10.1% Labourers, 4.9% Machinery operators & drivers. (30.1% total). This compares to 36.9% for Corio (Geelong). Grey (where NXT did 2nd best) was 38.8%.
http://localstats.com.au/demographics/federal-electorate/grey
Found this article on the Democrats ad buy in Texas
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2016/10/17/clinton-ramps-pressure-texas-rare-ad-buy
Bemused
Rudd and Conroy created and then encouraged the idea that they had come up with it on the back of an envelope (because that’s what geniuses such as they do, apparently).
That was the first mistake.
Scott Bales
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 10:54 am
“I have a pretty low opinion on how important Turnbull’s principles are to him, but I do not believe he would cave in to the gun lobby.”
I’m gunna keep that one for future reference 😉
Brandis dissing lawyers arguing human rights should remain with parliament not courts for decisions.
Of course overlooks courts interpret decisions of parliament.
ABC: Extremely long lines form at Atlanta-area polling locations on the first day of early voting in Georgia. abcnews.com/politics pic.twitter.com/uoFc4WcxHk
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Election
Who needs gun laws?
Briefly
“The Democrats could do worse. If they can shift behavior in Texas, even over a sequence of elections, they will be strong enough to shift the whole political framework.”
There is a view that the two parties (Dem and GOP) are currently undergoing a realignment, as a consequence of the uncertainty and ‘trauma’ caused by globalisation. The Democrats may lose working class/blue-collar workers to the Republicans. This puts states in the MidWest at risk; not just Ohio and Iowa, but also Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe even Pennsylvania. In return, the Dems gain a greater share of university-educated white voters (including males), handing them traditionally GOP states such as Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and even Texas.
Packer shanghaid?
Any man that profits from an Addiction, should be bankrupted!.
ABC24 reporting Assange’s Internet access was cut -off by the Ecuadorians.
I wonder if the London Met are adding a few extra ‘Bobbies’ outside the embassy.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/10/18/essential-voters-lack-confidence-in-turnbull-as-labor-leads-blows-out/
Oct 18, 2016
Essential: voters lack confidence in Turnbull as Labor leads blows out
This week’s Essential Report shows that there is little confidence in the ability of the Turnbull government to deliver — and voters now want a parliamentary vote on same-sex marriage.
Bernard Keane — Politics Editor
More than half of voters have no faith that the government will be able to achieve what the nation needs, while Labor has extended its lead over the government to six points in today’s Essential Report poll.
Less than a third of voters (31%) have some or a lot of faith that the government will be able to get done what the nation needs with the current Senate, while 58% have little or no faith at all, including 39% of Coalition voters. And 39% of voters believe the government will call an early election.
…………………………
Labor has gained a point on its primary vote, to 37%, while the Greens have also picked up a point to move to 11%, while the Coalition has lost a point to 37%; One Nation is down a point to 5% and NXT remains on 3%. That leads to a two-party preferred outcome of 53%-47% in Labour’s favour, the largest Labor lead since Tony Abbott was prime minister.
eg theodore @ #1166 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:16 am
Initial concept on the back of an envelope – fine.
Embarking on spending billions on that basis – wildly implausible.
It obviously had to go through Cabinet and some jottings on the back of an envelope just would not cut it.
Geeze that George Brandis SC QC DC is just plain nauseous to listen too.
Fingernails down blackboards comes to mind.
CT
Probably a reaction to Assange involvement in US election. Rightly so too.
Wow BK that US tweet from McCain is incredible, no Supreme Court judges for 4 years, if Hillary is president.
1934pc @ #1172 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:27 am
Well put!
JR
Thats only if the GOP wins the Senate. Not likely. House might go Democrat but Senate is much more likely and its the Senate that decides Supreme Court appointments.
Elaugaufein
“It’s worth noting that Presidential spends have down ticket effects, if the party isn’t at war, so spending on Presidential advertising can bump House/ Senate numbers. Parties are linked in the minds of voters. So flipping states on a presidential campaign isn’t “wasting” money.”
Normally, yes, this is the case. But this is not a normal election. The evidence is that the ‘coat-tail’ effect of Clinton isn’t as potent this year for down-ticket races as it was for Obama in 2012 and 2008. Given the split between Trump and the Republican establishment/leadership, the prospect of ticket-splitting by traditional Republican voters appears to be very high. This is what the polls are currently saying… though things could change closer to Nov 8.
The polls for Democrats in congressional races are a source of concern. Hillary is pulling ahead in the presidential race, but House and Senate Dem candidates aren’t seeing much benefit from Trump’s tanking popularity.
Besides, for Texas in particular, the fact that districts are so blatantly gerrymandered means that the Dems wouldn’t pick up any House seats anyway, no matter how many votes Hillary gets.
Goodness
Clinton’s odds have further increased according to Nate Silver
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
If they relaxed the Adler ban on its own, it would be reasonably unpopular but probably not fatal. If they were seen to be using it as a bargaining chip it would be political suicide.
1934pc @ #1172 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:27 am
At the very least. All that money and power inherited and gambling is the the big thing he ends up dealing in. What a useless, wasted life.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/an-embarrassment-to-journalism-nauru-government-attacks-racist-abc-over-refugee-report-20161017-gs4l8r.html
Tim Wilson in trouble by sounds of it. Was used in pamphlet as drawcard for a Liberal Fundraiser according to Senator Wong.
Senator Brandis is attacking Wong claiming she is attacking Wilson’s relationship.
McDonald has suspended the committee. Its going that well for them.
Which is odd. You’d think a party willing to nominate a candidate like Trump would see blowback just as a matter of course but they seem to have dodged it somehow, despite the fact that Trump is a clown show who made clowns of them all in the primary.
briefly @ #1161 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:05 am
The Dems are fighting an uphill battle in Texas.
Nate Silver on 538 has the chances of winning at 84.5% Trump to 15.55% Clinton.
They are back.
kakuru
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:37 am
In a populous State, like Texas, changes in turnout can affect a lot of results…and help procure changes in future results. To invest in your own candidates and their campaigns when your opponents are weak makes a lot of sense to me. What a prize Texas would be.
Is there a realignment going on in the US? I doubt it. The GOP have been very successful at encouraging (especially white) working people to vote against their own best interests but the party still belongs to the reactionaries and ideologues.
When the GOP start to advocate for higher corporate taxes, an egalitarian social and economic agenda and a liberal SCOTUS, then I will be persuaded.
The basic point is the Democrats are able to define themselves around a vision of the future. The GOP are fixated on the past.
don
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:53 am
briefly @ #1161 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 11:05 am
The Dems are fighting an uphill battle in Texas.
I like a steep run. The view from the crest is all the better.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/#now
The lead is not insurmountable…maybe it will take more than one shot, but it is worth fighting for.
Bemused
If it were actually the case that the initial concept was developed on the back of an envelope that would not be fine and it tends to undermine credibility which is crucial to success of such projects (as we have unfortunately seen)
Additionally, the initial concept was not in fact developed by Rudd/Conroy and was not in fact developed on the back of an envelope but instead was a serious option that had developed over a number of years. By misrepresenting this as something that they—the dynamic duo of geniuses—had come up with in a trivial amount time they did significant and possibly fatal damage to its credibility.
Politicians are not elected to come up with good ideas (then leaving the “detail” to lesser minds). Instead they are elected to decide between competing good ideas (or occasionally popular ideas that are in fact bad) and then advocate for their choice for as long as required for it to become a reality
Am I missing something? Albanese says that the appointment of Kitching was a victorian matter and he did not know all the candidates. So Massola says that is a “refusal to endorse” Kitching
Brandis continues to make even a bigger fool of himself. Is there no end to it?
It’s on the house – Labor moves immediately to suspend standing orders on reports that Malcolm Turnbull may weaken John Howard’s gun laws.
gabriellechan: Labor moves to suspend standing orders: “PM willing to risk more guns on the streets for one vote in the senate”. theguardian.com/australia-news…
SSO on gun law sell out. Shorten going for Turnbull’s jugular.