BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Two new polls this week have made no difference to Labor’s modest lead in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The arrival of the fortnightly Newspoll this week, together with the usual Essential Research, makes for two new additions to the poll aggregate, but they have had next to no impact on voting intention, outside of a modest bump for the Greens, and none at all on the seat projection. Both polls provided new leadership ratings, which took some of the edge off the net approval for both leaders, and slightly widened Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-10-12

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Bemused,
    If there were arrest warrants issued for that set of evil bastards, I would pay for the cuffs.

    And they can chuck that arch war crim Howard in as well; he who stirred up racial divisions to win a Prime Ministership.

  2. That ‘start your own business’ comment was arrogant and appalling.

    It was also ignorantly based upon the premise that small business/owner operator is the preferred business model for our economy. This stands in stark contrast with her fellow travellers’ embracing of trickle down economics theory when applied to the real world. It never works in reality.

  3. henry @ #1055 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 12:11 am

    Yes bemused you twit.
    There was no business plan,
    Can you point to one?

    More deep breaths Henry, calm down.
    I don’t carry one around with me and am about to go to bed so I will research it for you tomorrow. There was certainly one although the then opposition disparaged it, just like you are doing.

  4. PTMD @3.08pm

    Since (surprisingly or not) no one else told you that you got the bull by the horns, I will:

    At 3.08pm PTMD, you got the bull by the horns. I guess that might seem a bit trivial, but lurkers and others are best served here by posters posting accurate info.

    Cheers

  5. Henry re NBN:

    Yes bemused you twit.
    There was no business plan,
    Can you point to one?

    There was something called a business plan. However the NBN is not a business and so having having a document called a business plan merely creates confusion.

    The NBN is a business as much as the street at the front of my house is a business. That is, it is not (despite having a whole lot of highly paid people who used to work for Telstra prancing around in fancy suits and carry fancy titles).

  6. highly paid people who used to work for Telstra prancing around in fancy suits and carry fancy titles).

    And in one case having a fancy name consisting only of initials…

  7. Henry

    Yes but EGT.
    For this sort of cost full business plan required.
    FFS I could do it.

    Why would you write a business plan for something (NBN) that isn’t a business?
    Do you also write a chart of accounts for how to replace your car battery?
    Or a recipe concerning the best way to get to Dubbo?
    The NBN needed something – but since it isn’t a business that thing is not a business plan.

    Horses for courses!

  8. Having watched Q&A now (regarding the hipster looking guys):
    If you can’t tell Liberal from Greens from those questions and the way they were asked then I’d suggest you double check you’re members of the ALP and not PHON because your ability to identify political parties and their position is seriously lacking.
    I get that you loathe the Greens because you feel the ALP has divine right to that 10% of the vote but at least do your self-justification for you visceral loathing with something real (hell I’ll take the divine right to 10% of the vote argument (which is wrong but at least based on historical vote share) over a likely feigned inability to distinguish Greens from Liberals).

  9. A bleary good morning all. So Bob Day’s company is in liquidation and unable to pay its debts. Hence he is leaving the Senate before he is declared bankrupt and loses his seat. It leaves 207 families with unfinished homes. Thanks, Bob.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-17/family-first-senator-bob-day-leaving-australian-senate/7938776
    I note this bit of the story
    “It is understood the group has been in financial trouble for some time — financial reports published by the company show it recorded losses of $1.2 million in 2013 and $3 million in 2014.”
    The ABC quotes section 44 as follows:
    “Section 44 of the Constitution disqualifies anyone who is bankrupt or insolvent from serving as a Senator or Member of the Parliament.”

    The obvious question is, while Day may not be declared bankrupt yet, was he already insolvent at the time of the last election? If so, was he eligible to be elected? He has been stalling this for some time.

  10. The fact it was a corporation should have protected him, he’s only going to be personally bankrupt because he signed personal guarantees to creditors , so I’m pretty sure he’d personally have been solvent until the company was liquidated and the debt fell onto him as the guarantor.

  11. PS.. for some reason the link to the NBN Co’s 2010 Corporate Plan ..leads to a “page not available” message..

    But it’ll be out in the cybersphere somewhere..


  12. Henry
    Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 12:11 am
    Yes bemused you twit.
    There was no business plan,
    Can you point to one?

    Yes; put a better effort into burying it before you claim there was not one.

  13. The next ‘Battle for Mosul’:

    As the military battle over ISIL-controlled Mosul and Nineveh has begun, questions over the future of this vital province of Iraq are flowing thick and fast.

    While there is confidence that the new US-supported coalition can defeat ISIL (also known as ISIS), there are concerns that each faction holds contesting views about what comes after.

    It is becoming apparent, for example, that a number of elements have well-vested interests in partitioning the province into a series of six to eight ethnic or sectarian cantons with independent rights and autonomy from Haider al-Abadi’s government in Baghdad.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/10/protecting-mosul-minorities-excuse-partition-161017074315301.html

  14. President Barack Obama is a stealth fox!

    It’s about time those over-inflated egos of Vladimir Putin and Julian Assange were pricked! I hope the NSA tracks down the ‘Fancy Bears’ (aka the FSB) hackers portal and stuffs it with virtual chewing gum too!

    Of course, they will all try to go ‘dark’ on the web but I expect that the NSA have got that covered as well. They invented it after all! : )

  15. I was thinking of commenting on Q&A, but in the face of the cruelty to refugees by our government, it would seem as if I had no heart.

  16. It seems Turnbull is being pressured to relax the nation’s gun laws to get his industrial reforms through the Senate.

    That would be a very bad move.

  17. Turnbull’s interview is getting a pasting on Twitter. Example:

    Captain Fluffula ‏@Fluffula · 6m6 minutes ago

    The outrage from Turnbull should be about the child abuse not the accusation @BreakfastNews

  18. It is entirely necessary for the NBN project to have a corporate plan with cash flow projections. Whether it needs to make a profit, or should be privatised, are completely separate questions.

  19. Turnbull:

    ‘The Department of Immigration and Border Protection rejects the claims in the Amnesty report and has rejected similar claims in the past’.

    The ‘Department … Okay, but I wonder what the actual government (the one you’re supposed to be running, Talc) says on this.

    He’s weak as p#ss.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A bit of a late start this morning.

    Packer’s Crown Casino is in more than a spot of bother with the Chinese.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/crown-resorts-could-pay-dearly-as-whale-hunt-backfires-as-police-prepare-to-lay-charges-20161017-gs4dqt.html
    Here’s the SNH’s take on last night’s QandA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/repulsive-donald-trump-centre-of-attention-on-qa-20161017-gs4hc8.html
    The privatised Medibank is the standout performer when it comes to reports to the Private Health Insurance Ombudsman.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/private-health-insurance-ombudsman-report-shows-record-complaints-driven-by-medibank-20161017-gs43od.html
    To pinch a line from Fawlty Towers there’d be enough material to write a book for this psychologist who will “see” Nick Kyrgios.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/nick-kyrgios-season-is-over-after-ban-extra-fine-20161017-gs4eam.html
    This effort by Ballarat police leaves a lot to be desired.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/im-in-guantanamo-bay-this-isnt-ballarat-policewoman-was-charged-after-ordeal-20161017-gs45u2.html
    What does this say about the trajectory of asylum seeker detention?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/trauma-and-tragedy-australian-detention-centre-staff-to-get-resilience-training-20161017-gs3uvc.html
    Is Trump paving the way with his election campaign for the establishment of a new TV network. Investment banks seem to think so.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/investment-bank-spurns-donald-trump-tv-network-idea-source-20161017-gs4h5l.html
    And what does this say about America and what could be in store for when Hillary Clinton wins?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/prehillary-sale-las-vegas-gun-store-warns-prices-will-skyrocket-if-clinton-wins-20161017-gs4gp6.html
    Paul McGeough writes about the various implosions that are occurring in the Trump campaign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/little-trump-on-display-as-backer-questions-wisdom-of-candidates-blameshifting-20161016-gs3otx.html
    Trump is not just a sore loser – he’s a destructive one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trump-is-not-just-a-sore-loser-hes-a-destructive-one-20161017-gs3tw3.html

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Amnesty International has released a major report accusing Australia of intentionally torturing detainees on Nauru. Pezzullo dismissed the report as a “publicity stunt”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/island-of-despair-australia-intentionally-torturing-refugees-on-nauru-says-major-amnesty-international-report-20161016-gs3sm4.html
    Amy Remeikis looks in to the details of the Amnesty International report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/four-of-the-most-harrowing-tales-amnesty-international-heard-on-nauru-the-island-of-despair-20161017-gs408j.html
    The New Matlda also delves into the report.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/10/18/australia-tortures-asylum-seekers-the-gut-wrenching-details-of-amnestys-trip-nauru-report/
    Nice work if you can get it. And it seems being a dumped Coalition MP helps quite a lot.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/four-dumped-liberal-mps-warehoused-as-taxpayerfunded-government-advisers-20161017-gs41x9.html
    This editorial says Turnbull and Shorten should take a good look at themselves when it comes to “jobs for the boys”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/jobsformates-erodes-public-trust-20161016-gs3rhl.html
    John Quiggin on plebiscites, climate change denials and other Coalition diversions.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/plebiscites-climate-science-denialand-othercoalition-diversions,9606
    I wonder how long Bob Day’s company, of which he is sole director, had been trading while insolvent. Will the government blame the CFMEU for this disgraceful collapse which has severely hurt so many innocent people?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/family-first-senator-bob-day-quits-the-senate-after-building-company-goes-bust-20161017-gs3xjg.html
    The AFR examines why Bob Day went broke. Google.
    /business/construction/huxley-homes-buy-13-years-ago-sowed-seeds-of-day-destruction-20161017-gs43x8
    Here’s Michelle Grattan on Day’s resignation.
    https://theconversation.com/family-firsts-bob-day-quits-senate-following-business-collapse-67158
    Worried tradies and customers have descended upon Hay’s SA Homestead Homes in Adelaide. Google.
    /business/tradies-customers-descend-on-homestead-home-offices-after-bob-days-business-collapses/news-story/bda7a1ce75c929bc98f2a44f43ee4af8
    This is not what Shorten needs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-senator-gavin-marshall-declares-war-on-frontbench-colleagues-flags-preselection-challenges-20161016-gs3q8w.html
    Peter Martin on how ACCI has come out swinging against the TPP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/acci-comes-out-swinging-against-the-aspects-of-the-trans-pacific-partnership-20161017-gs47gz.html

  22. Section 3 . . .

    One Nation is gearing up now to tackle state elections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/surging-one-nation-gears-up-to-take-seats-at-state-elections-reveals-meeting-with-bill-shorten-20161017-gs42qd.html
    Michaela Whitbourn on Dreyfus getting under Brandis’s skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-accuses-labor-of-risking-national-security-in-george-brandis-v-solicitorgeneral-feud-20161017-gs4316.html
    Brandis is playing politics with good government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-brandis-is-playing-politics-with-good-government-20161017-gs3zv8.html
    According to “View from the Street” Pauling Hanson has a new constituency – online gamers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/pauline-hansons-new-constituency-online-gamers-20161017-gs3tie.html
    Mark Kenny responds to the response he got after his article yesterday on the SSM plebiscite.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/when-equality-for-all-is-none-of-your-business-20161017-gs3v4v.html
    We need more scientists to take the leap into politics says Emma Johnston.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-need-to-see-more-scientists-take-the-leap-into-politics-20161017-gs3u5z.html
    This piece from a gay journo based in the US says in this reasoned contribution that a win in the plebiscite would have been cathartic but at what cost?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/winning-the-marriage-equality-plebiscite-would-have-been-cathartic-but-at-what-cost-20161016-gs3spi.html
    Tess Lawrence has written a rather explosive and explicit article on the “Neoz Cons against SSM”.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-neoz-cons-against-same-sex-marriage,9603
    Yes! The problems with banks arise out of the bonus systems that infest them. The phrase “What interests by boss FASCINATES me!” comes to mind. And it’s not only banks that are thus affected!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-root-of-evil-australias-problem-with-banker-bonuses-20161017-gs3uij.html

  23. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Paul Zanetti puts Trump in a line-up.

    Beautiful work from Peter Broelman.

    Sean Leahy – so much for the elephant in the room!

    David Pope on Bob the Builder.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Alan Moir and Trump’s chickens come home to roost or something else.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
    A little ripper from Mat Golding on those that support Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20151124-gl6ndp.html
    Jon Kudelka peeks in on Turnbull’s Senate calculations for crossbench support of the ABCC legislation.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a7c4dbc132020d60671569c00f2dcc91
    David Rowe on Jamie Packer’s problem with China.

  24. CTar1 – Talc had better get offshore detention fixed by the next election. Even people who support off-shore detention won’t be impressed that people are still there.

  25. Lizzie

    That would be a very bad move.

    It would be just another way point on Truffles’ ‘Magnificent Career’ plunge into the abyss .

  26. Poroti

    The pics of Malcolm nowadays seem morose, depressed, angry. The expression which comes to mind is “Shot with a ball of your own shite”.

  27. Ffs I am fed up with this useless excuse of a PM. i am over him and his useless excuse of a govt

    Alice Workman
    Alice Workman – Verified account ‏@workmanalice

    PM refuses to rule out whether he’s negotiating with @DavidLeyonhjelm to loosen Australia’s gun laws #auspol
    Embedded image
    2:03 PM – 17 Oct 2016
    14 RETWEETS3 LIKES

  28. Lizzie

    You would look morose too if you had spent your whole life dreaming of your ‘destined’ Prime ministerial career. Dreaming of the glowing entry into the history books it will inevitably have. Then realising it and your name will more and more likely be filed under “Prime Ministerial Failures”, “Pointless PMs”,”Worst Government Contenders”.
    Couldn’t happen to a nicer ego.

  29. Political Alert ‏@political_alert · 24s25 seconds ago

    Amnesty International will brief the media on its damning report of Australia’s treatment of refugees on Nauru at 10am, Sydney #auspol

  30. Man, the media are driven to play up One Nation at the moment. It’s a “surge” of 1-2% from the actual value at the Federal election (as opposed to the share of the HoR vote which means roughly nothing for support level of anyone outside of Labor/ LNP/ Greens because they can run candidates in every seat).

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