Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  2. “The system can enable politicians to be a law unto themselves, and to shield each other from scrutiny and the consequences of their wrongdoing.”

    This issue goes much deeper than our politicians. A recent survey by the Australian Public Service Commission reported that, over the past year, more than 3000 federal public servants had seen inappropriate or illegal behaviour at work, including conflicts of interest, nepotism, blackmail, bribery, fraud and collusion with criminals.

    Disturbingly, only a third reported this behaviour to their supervisors. The larger group said they were unsure how to report corruption, and so the problem was not properly dealt with. This is strong evidence that existing systems are not working.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/george-williams-20160930-grs7es.html

  3. I bet Jeffemu won’t be up early this morning. ; )

    Congratulations, mate, even if ScoMo is your Number 1 ticket holder. : )

    Jeez, it was a brutal win that Cronulla ground out against the Storm.

  6. I thought it wouldn’t be long before Duterte started playing with fire by thinking he was smart enough to play with the big boys. Petty Crims always do.

  9. Tony Abbott is back on the Government Gazette front page with a speech he is giving in London on free trade between UK and Australia. Malcolm must be so happy that he has such an esteemed proxy to speak for him.

    ““Because Australia and Britain are like-minded countries with similar systems and comparable standards of living, there should be no need for tortuous negotiation and labyrinthine detail,” he will tell a UK Australia Chamber of Commerce breakfast

    The former prime minister believes Australia and Britain could achieve almost free movement of people between the two nations.

    “For the first time in a generation, Aussies shouldn’t face a passport queue at Heathrow,” he will say.

    “Britons and Australians already have more than 200 years’ experience of each other, so why not allow them more freely to travel and work in each other’s country, provided no one’s bludging.”

    This reference presumably means that Mr Abbott would envisage restrictions on visitors receiving welfare payments.”

    The article is written by Abbott’s buddy Greg Sheridan.

  10. Frydenberg now backing the PM’s aggression towards States. Just in time for the COAG meeting. Anyone like to be a fly on the wall when Andrews attacks???

    The storm – both real and political – continues to rage over South Australia, with federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg conceding initial inquiries found renewable energy was not to blame for last week’s statewide blackout, while refusing to back down from attacks on “aggressive” state Labor renewable energy targets.

    With South Australia preparing for more flooding as it deals with the fallout from Wednesday’s unprecedented storm, debate is still raging over what caused the power blackout, which left thousands of people still without power four days later.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/renewables-not-to-blame-for-south-australia-blackout-but-energy-debate-rages-20161002-grt4lo.html

  11. Some more extract from the Lying Friar’s speech. It is almost as if he is campaigning again….

    “Under Mr Abbott’s proposal, it would be both the most complete, and simplest, free-trade deal Australia has engaged in. “There should be no tariffs or quotas whatsoever on any goods traded between our two countries — there should be no exceptions, no carve-outs, nothing,” he will tell a high powered London business breakfast tomorrow.

    The second big element of his proposed deal is “full recognition of each country’s credentials and standards”.

    The objective, Mr Abbott believes, should be “an entirely seamless economic relationship based on free entry of goods, ­mutual recognition of services and standards, and easy entry of qualified people”.

    He will argue that “if a motor car (say) could be registered in the UK, it should be registrable in Australia; if a trade qualification (say) was recognised in Australia, it should be recognised here”.

    Mr Abbott pronounces himself an enthusiastic convert to Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

    “Post-Brexit, the stockmarket’s up, employment’s up and economic growth is up; the pound’s down, but that should more than compensate for any tariffs that the EU is foolish enough to impose,” Mr Abbott will say.”

    This up, up, up and down turn of phrase reminds one of Abbott’s stump speech before he was rolled by the Lying Waffle.

  12. Sprocket_

    I think this has given rise to a reminder on Twitter that Tony’s “dual citizenship” is still one of life’s known unknowns.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Urban Wronski – The lights go out for the Turnbull government.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/10/02/the-lights-go-out-for-the-turnbull-government/
    Is Aldi already playing funny buggers with its accounts?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/aldi-urged-to-come-clean-on-accounts-20160925-gro1lv.html
    Ross Gittins on how Treasury could help the government to be smarter. (Getting rid of quite a few of its members and ministers we all could name would be a good start!).
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-treasury-could-help-the-government-be-smarter-20161001-grt2gw.html
    From a taxation point of view mega-rich man Trump is very poor according to Paul McGeough.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trumps-leaked-tax-returns-reveal-6108-salary-20161002-grtbqv.html
    Another Trump rant as he goes off the rails in what was supposed to be a tightly scripted performance. Are we seeing the beginning of the Great Unhingement?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/as-news-of-trumps-taxes-breaks-he-goes-off-script-at-a-rally-in-pennsylvania-20161002-grtf2t.html
    Why the world id cheering for Hillary Clinton to win.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/why-the-world-is-cheering-for-hillary-clinton-in-the-us-presidential-election-20161002-grten2.html
    As the big four banks prepare for a “grilling” from the Standing Committee Labor is still calling for a Royal Commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/big-four-banks-prepare-to-be-grilled-by-parliament-but-labor-stuck-on-royal-commission-20161002-grtcez.html
    Meanwhile Labor and The Greens have fresh whistleblower evidence to hit the banks with in the hearings this week.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/03/labor-plans-to-use-fresh-whistleblower-testimonies-to-pressure-bank-bosses
    Greg Jericho gets down and dirty on the exorbitant bonuses within the banks.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/oct/02/ceos-bank-on-bonuses-as-average-australian-worker-left-to-flounder
    The Australian breaks down the Newspoll results and finds Turnbull is losing votes in the bush and from older voters. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-country-voters-turn-on-coalition/news-story/1c2a5ce7773f86c80ad82c893defa092

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Australia has become the “champion” when it comes to retaining metadata and intercepting phone calls.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/02/australia-collects-more-metadata-intercepts-more-calls-than-u-s/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Theresa May signals a “hard Brexit”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/02/brexit-theresa-may-prioritises-immigration-curbs-over-free-movement
    Jess Irvine explores what would happen if immigration were to be stopped.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-what-would-happen-if-australia-halted-immigration-20160930-grsizn.html
    Peter Costello comes out and defends the Future Fund’s push on renewables. Google.
    /news/peter-costello-defends-future-funds-renewables-push-20160930-grsos9
    Andrew Demetriou’s company is in more than a spot of bother with the VET crackdown.
    /news/policy/education/demetrious-acquire-learning-caught-in-vet-crackdown-20160930-grsc85
    Tim Dick exhorts people to get up and leave once their work is done.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/get-up-and-leave-when-your-work-is-done-20160930-grskte.html
    Delays in the NSW court system are causing the prison population to blow out. One third of the population is in on remand!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/justice-postponed-a-third-of-nsws-prisoners-languishing-on-remand-due-to-backlog-20160928-grqe79.html
    This anaesthetist says that the medical profession should be ashamed at how it lets itself to be influenced by the lavish treatment they receive from drug companies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-medical-profession-should-be-embarrassed-20160930-grs78m.html
    Dean of Law George Williams outlines the case for a national ICAC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-williams-20160930-grs7es.html
    Is THIS what we are headed for with this government?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/plan-to-give-private-job-service-providers-power-to-cut-welfare-slammed-20160926-grohf2.html

  15. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with bedtime for Malcolm Turnbull. It’s ugly!

    Cathy Wilcox and some inspired action from Baird.

    David Pope “celebrates” the 60th anniversary of the Maralinga A-bomb explosion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Matt Golding on hypocrisy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20151124-gl6ndp.html
    Mark Knight and the Bulldogs’ celebration.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e5d62d5e347f26184e324a5bb9db1aed
    Jon Kudelka does a nice job on the Strongman from Longman.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5e4da42fcbfe4c5489836fca89ebb251

  17. Sprocket

    Tones thick as a brick

    The second big element of his proposed deal is “full recognition of each country’s credentials and standards”.

    As part of the exit from the EU the UK will need to adopt EU law as British law initially and then knockout/amend those laws.

    In other words EU law will hangover for decades in the UK.

  18. The strange case of the Victorian Labor politician with a federal Liberal senator. Where was the State Lib?

    Mr Donnellan was with federal Liberal senator James Paterson on Sunday, announcing the Ring Road widening works between Sunshine Avenue and the Calder Freeway would begin on Sunday night.

    Senator Paterson said the $300 million, 3.2-kilometre road widening would improve traffic flow and travel times.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/airport-rail-not-a-priority-but-widening-tullamarine-freeway-is-roads-minister-20161002-grt7je.html

  19. Morning all.

    Thanks BK. That Urban Wronski post is the kind of reporting you’ll rarely if ever see in OM in relation to emissions reduction.

  20. Yes, I remember now, Tony Abbott is all for ‘seamless’ interaction between Britain and Australia. Like the way he ‘seamlessly’ gave Prince Phillip an Australian Knighthood.

  21. That picture shows an arrogant Abbott rather than a respectful one. The man has no social skills at all.

    :large

    Lord:Judge ‘n-Jury ‏@sprocket___ · 18m18 minutes ago

    The Lying Friar is freelancing. His UK/Australia free trade speech getting attention, but his real purpose was to tug his forelock #auspol pic.twitter.com/DpT5N8YlOs

  22. BK

    Why the world id cheering for Hillary Clinton to win

    ‘Cheering’ as a description a bit strong.

    Clinton simply a better option from a not inspiring menu.

  23. shiftaling @ #7 Monday, October 3, 2016 at 8:07 am

    Interestingly this story on hydrogen fuel has popped up.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/oct/03/hydrogen-cars-electrolysers-dawn-australia-hydrogen-economy

    The problem is that you are losing so much energy from first converting the electricity into compressed and contained hydrogen, then transporting it, then the fuel cells themselves are only around 50% efficient in turning hydrogen into electricity, and their life is limited.
    From wikipedia:

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Fuel Cell Technology Program claims that, as of 2011, fuel cells achieved 53–59% efficiency at one-quarter power and 42–53% vehicle efficiency at full power, and a durability of over 120,000 km (75,000 mi) with less than 10% degradation.

  24. Ctari

    It is that sort of speech from Admiral Blair that puts me into the possible WWIII camp. Military people always believe that they can knock out the enemy in “10-15 minutes. Such hubris is usually shockingly misplaced and leads to people making foolish decisions. The Boer war, WWI, Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbour, Vietnam, Iraq etc are all examples of hubris gone wrong.

    One reason to fear is the sense that the USA may decide to strike early BEFORE China has built up strong defences and before it has an effective offensive strategy ie before it could strike back. They may for example believe that in 2016 they could take out the Chinese outposts in 10-15 minutes but in 2020 it might take much longer and China might put Hawaii or Guam in danger. (PS I am guessing at what SOME military people may believe and have no idea what might really happen). However I would be prepared to make a guess that China will have defences and/or weaponry not known to the US and that 10-15 minutes might well even now be closer to 10-15 months. (Similarly of course the US, Russia and probably even little Aus may have have capabilities that others are not aware of).

  32. DTT – I think the US can deal with the island outposts.

    What happens next is the unknown.

    Direct words are required now by our Govt to make it clear that we will be part of it or not depending on our national interest.

    The American assumption that we can be counted as ‘in’ needs to be changed.

  33. C@

    Why does the Queen bother meeting with Testosterone Tony?

    Pressure from the UK Govt to get him in this time, I’d say. Last time he visited the Queen was too busy although her official schedule showed her as having one short event on the day.

    With Brexit the UK Govt will want to keep C’wlth countries ‘happy’.

  34. Thank you, CTar1. Though why Theresa May would want to indulge a failed leader from the Antipodes is a question yet to be answered.

  36. It also leads me to question, as does the Rowe cartoon, whether we have a triumvirate in the Prime Minister’s job?
    1. Malcolm Turnbull, to appease the Moderates in the government.
    2. Barnaby Joyce, to appease the Agrarian Socialist Conservative faction.
    3. To appease the Conservative wing of the Liberal Party and LNP.

    So we have Testosterone Tony, over in the Motherland, making a speech as if he was someone other than a failed leader of an Antipodean government. What we don’t have is Malcolm Turnbull raising a squeak of protest against a man overstepping the mark by taking on a leadership role of outlining what the Australian government position should be in relation to Brexit.

    What we also don’t seem to have is a Prime Minister in this country either. Missing-in-Action as he appears to be, yet again.

    He wasn’t at the AFL Grand Final.
    He wasn’t at the Rugby League Grand Final.
    He hasn’t been seen giving any major speeches of his own this weekend.
    He was a Nowhere Man again.

  43. Shiftaling

    Interestingly this story on hydrogen fuel has popped up.

    As I noted in a very early morning post, hydrogen is bad for the environment when it leaks out. It reduces the capacity for the atmosphere to break down methane and other greenhouse gases.
    Hydrogen is a pollutant.
    Also, for reasons that Don has noted, hydrogen cycled through fuel cells is a very inefficient way to manage energy. Meanwhile battery technology is highly efficient and improving all the time. We already have electric cars that do 500 km between charges. Another two or three years and it will be 1000 km.

  44. Lizzie,
    All I know is, Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and even Tony Abbott would have taken the opportunity to inspect the damaged State. As true leaders of the Nation.

    Where’s Malcolm!?! Playing with his grandkids again!?!
    Look, if I were into conspiracy theories, which I’m not, but I would say he is keeping an illness from us which necessitates him to have lots of rest.

  45. C@Tmomma

    If this were America there would definitely be hints about Mal’s lack of stamina!

    Perhaps Mal’s afraid of going near anything that could be classified as “environment”.
    😉

  49. Trog wrote:

    As I noted in a very early morning post, hydrogen is bad for the environment when it leaks out. It reduces the capacity for the atmosphere to break down methane and other greenhouse gases.
    Hydrogen is a pollutant.
    Also, for reasons that Don has noted, hydrogen cycled through fuel cells is a very inefficient way to manage energy. Meanwhile battery technology is highly efficient and improving all the time. We already have electric cars that do 500 km between charges. Another two or three years and it will be 1000 km.

    This seems a bit of an over-reaction to me, and a tad “Green fundamentalist”. Is there any fuel at all that is acceptable to climate puritans? Or are we all going to ride our bicycles from Sydney to Melbourne? Perhaps we could go back to bullock drays? Oh, I forgot: bullocks fart lots. That’s bad too.

    Hydrogen that leaks will instantly combine with oxygen to form water.

    In fact, hydrogen that doesn’t leak, i.e. hydrogen that is is combusted inside a motor will also instantly form water, by the same process.

    No-one is saying that the production of hydrogen is perfectly (or even substantially) efficient, or won’t use up electricity (if produced by electrolysis), or that the use of hydrogen won’t cause some theoretical effects in the atmosphere.

    But surely the use of hydrogen as a portable fuel for motor vehicles at least (and who knows, for aircraft as well) is better than digging up trees and other vegetation that died hundreds of millions of years ago and then reinserting their carbon into the atmosphere?

    I just wonder when Green fundies will stop playing “Bring Me A Rock” and start contributing, instead of constant doomsaying?

  50. Ctari
    I agree – we in Australia need to make our position clear, both to China and the US, although I am not sure it would do our economy much good if we clearly go all the way with USA. With education our second or third biggest sector, if we are clearly opposed to China this tap might turn off overnight. Even more than coal or iron, since overseas education is a bit of a luxury item and China could just stop issuing passports for foreign study in Australia. They could switch to studying in NZ, UK, Europe or even Indonesia and the Philippines.

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