Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016

Aggregated Newspoll breakdowns find nothing too remarkable going on beneath the surface of the three polls it has published since the election.

The Australian has published the regular Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals, aggregating all the polling the organisation has conducted since the election – a smaller than usual amount, since the pollster took the better part of two months to resume post-election. The results suggest a bit of slippage for the Coalition since the election in South Australia, but essentially no change in the other four mainland states. This is an opportune moment for me to apologise for not having reactivated BludgerTrack over the past week as promised, but the availability of this new data means the delay is probably for the best. It will positively definitely happen later this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: August-September 2016”

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  1. BB

    I don’t know the ins and outs of hydrogen.

    What I do know is why develop hydrogen when electric energy powered by ever cheaper solar wind and hydro is proven technology?

    All pollution free.

    Battery technology is improving and will do to energy production disruption what Uber did to the taxi industry.

    What is the point of developing hydrogen energy?

  2. michaelkoziol: Shorten’s (new?) line: “You can take Malcolm Turnbull out of the investment bank but you can’t take the investment banker out of Malcolm T.”

  3. “lying friar”
    That must come close to contravening religious discrimination Act . There’s some real nasty stuff on Twitter, a place for the emotionally disordered or simply lonely, methinks.

    Anyways, I’ve come round to the view that J. Gillard and K. Rudd were right about clamping down on the media in regard to lies and slander written every other day. I don’t think Australian political journalists have the ethics to regulate themselves.
    Niki Savva and the slander about an affair Abbott/Credlin and Guy Rundle with slander about David Feeney and something about Mrs Feeney only married to him for particular reason to do with a sexual matter.
    Hideous. I do think there needs to be much better regulation of Australian political journalists as it is kind of destroying the political system from within.


  4. Prettyone

    Compared to the USA our media is quite restrained. The things said about Hillary AND Trump in the USA are appalling.

  5. Yes, Daretotread, absolutely appalling in America about Ms Clinton and D. Trump. In fact, it’s hard to see any articles about their policies at all. Very poor information/choices for the American voters, I think.
    But I think Australia is quite close to America now in that regard.
    Australian journalists appear to be a law unto themselves.

  6. political_alert: Greens Leader @RichardDiNatale will discuss need for national leadership on renewables and issues of the day, 1:30pm, Melbourne #auspol

  7. What is the point of developing hydrogen energy?

    Sometimes the fuel needs to be portable, for instance, aircraft fuel.

    Batteries may be OK for powering a vacuum cleaner, or even something as heavy as a car. But will a disadvantageous power-to-weight ratio work so well (be efficient) when used in a 40-tonne B-Double (not one plowing up and down from Sydney to Melbourne – because all heavy freight will be by rail in them days, naturally – but from the rail terminus out to the factories).

    I’m quite sure that literally billions of batteries in billions of cars, homes and other installations worldwide will cause a few manufacturing and pollution problems as well, especially when it comes to disposal. I haven’t seen any discussion of that from the Green fundies (maybe because battery power is still a boutique solution for those who can afford the expensive upfront investment). Just carping and moaning about the other choices that may need to be made doesn’t cut it.

    It’s so easy to play Bring Me a Rock. That’s how a couple of thousand people got stuck in miserable gulags on Nauru and Manus islands: Green intransigence, and the search for the pure rather than the practical. I hope their suffering makes you happy. As long as it’s in a good cause, eh, and gives you something to point to?

    You people need to stop whingeing and criticising and start being a little less puritanical about energy.

  8. BB

    My question was genuine. Yes I agree batteries have disposal problems. So do all products.

    My point is batteries are proven solutions. As to your mobile point. Bio fuels address that and are also a proven technology where batteries are not an option. Yes bio fuels do create pollution too.

    Using a general all Greens are the same does you no credit.

    Just as saying all Labor supporters that believe in climate change are the same would do you no credit. Some of that Murdoch mythologising has coloured your views.

    My question is real. What is the point of developing an unproven technology when we have proven means to address problems?

    Pointing out a flaw in the technology being developed is good. If we had known about the dangers of carbon to the world’s environment maybe we would not have been so gung ho on the use of coal and oil. I doubt it but maybe.

  9. Bushfire Bill

    Hydrogen that leaks will instantly combine with oxygen to form water.

    No. It rises up into the upper atmosphere where it combines with hydroxyl radicals to then form water. The problem is that these hydroxyl radicals are part of the cycle that scrubs methane – a potent greenhouse gas – from the atmosphere.
    All technologies, including solar and wind turbines, have an impact on global warming. The smart thing to do is to utilise and subsidise those that have the least impact on AGW, not knowing persist with stuff we know is bad.

  10. Interesting exchange between Trog and BB.
    Experience has shown that environmental “cures” may sometimes be worse (or at least bad in a different way) than the disease eg CFCs replacing Vinyl Chloride Monomer, biodegradeable plastic bags, batteries replacing coal or even compact fluorescents replacing incandescent bulbs. It is all about trade offs.

    The hydrogen fuel is one such. However it is more than likely that the Greenhouse gas benefits would far outweigh the negatives (obviously modelling needed so Trog may be right). However risk of explosion makes hydrogen fuel still a bit of a hazard, so there will be higher costs of safety and maintenance than with petrol or diesel. However as BB said hydrogen may be great for aircraft and the extra risk of hydrogen may not be significantly more when compared with what is already needed for safely for aviation fuel.

    it is horses for courses. I suspect BOTH BB and Trog have some very good points.

  11. BB

    Batteries may be OK for powering a vacuum cleaner, or even something as heavy as a car. But will a disadvantageous power-to-weight ratio work so well (be efficient) when used in a 40-tonne B-Double

    Doesn’t make sense.
    A 40 tonne B-double is actually more efficient at moving stuff fuel/freight wise. That’s why they have B-double’s in the first place. A B-double is actually a perfect candidate for battery/electric.

  12. Another point to remember. Aircraft travel in the future may be very different to what we have today. There are serious attempts to revive the zeppelin mode of air travel. What fuel it uses will be interesting.

    However the advantages of zeppelin style aircraft can be immense. Much more able to carry many passengers and heavy cargo. Using less fuel to do it no matter what the source.

    Thats only one option if they get it right and overcome the damage done by the Hindenburg disaster in the public mind.

  13. Maybe the Queen could give Tones a knighthood.

    Happy anniversary BK.

    Any war with China would have to be over in 10-15 mins and held outside trading hours on the NYSE.
    Otherwise the US government would be insolvent.

  14. Guytaur

    Yes I think there were serious investigation to move some large items via Zeppelin (or at least air balloon) up to mining sites. It is probably quite rational where items are large, bulky, awkwardly shaped etc, such that road transport is difficult. I guess it might well suit prefab type items, especially where they need to be moved to places accessible only by winding, narrow and steep roads.

  15. BK

    Sorry did not see you are having an anniversary. Congratulations!! May it be a happy day and the weather reports downgrades mean you have to work less and have more time for celebrations 🙂

  16. That must come close to contravening religious discrimination Act .

    Except there isn’t one. As any abused Muslim can tell you.

  17. trog sorrenson @ #59 Monday, October 3, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Bushfire Bill

    Hydrogen that leaks will instantly combine with oxygen to form water.

    No. It rises up into the upper atmosphere where it combines with hydroxyl radicals to then form water. The problem is that these hydroxyl radicals are part of the cycle that scrubs methane – a potent greenhouse gas – from the atmosphere.
    All technologies, including solar and wind turbines, have an impact on global warming. The smart thing to do is to utilise and subsidise those that have the least impact on AGW, not knowing persist with stuff we know is bad.

    Also atmospheric water has powerful greenhouse effects, so anything that increases it will have consequences .

  18. BB

    Trog is right re the B Doubles – batteries would make sense – especially if there are exchange/recharge stations along major routes. Shipping is less clear, although I guess they could carry spares fairly easily.

  19. The other advantage of electric everywhere batteries used as much as possible is you don’t need to transport hazardous fuels on rail or road with the dangers that come in the cases of accidents.

  20. Intrrrriguing, William – you say “nothing too remarkable going on” while the UnAustralian finds a shift away from the Illibs among rural, male and over 50 voters. Are you being too laid-back or are they whipping up the drama for reasons of their own?

  21. billshortenmp: Privilege to meet some of the volunteers and emergency services personnel working hard in SA – they’re doing a remarkable job.

  22. Edmund Tadros
    Edmund Tadros – Verified account ‏@edmundtadros

    Very interesting investigative detail. The Time I Found Donald Trump’s Tax Records in My Mailbox
    The New York Times
    The New York Times
    Embedded image
    The Time I Found Donald Trump’s Tax Records in My Mailbox

    A manila envelope led to old-style investigative journalism involving a meeting in a bagel shop and an IBM typewriter.
    View on web
    4:40 PM – 2 Oct 2016

  23. TPOF

    Redcliffe Queensland is a long way from South Australia. Mr Shorten looking more Prime Ministerial then Turnbull as he takes a natural disaster and supporting the community seriously not making political points.

    A massive contrast which the public will view the optics of with great favour to the ALP.

    The PM has had days to get behind the SA community instead he has made political points and run away from supporting the local community.

    No amount of pressers with a Labor premier is going to overcome that PR reality.

  24. But surely the use of hydrogen as a portable fuel for motor vehicles at least (and who knows, for aircraft as well) is better than digging up trees and other vegetation that died hundreds of millions of years ago and then reinserting their carbon into the atmosphere?

    You’re thinking too small. The vehicles should be all-electric, like Tesla cars. And the hydrogen you use to drive fusion-based power plants. That requires a lot less hydrogen than if you were to merely combust it for energy. And also avoids any issues related to transport and storage of large volumes of hydrogen gas, while simultaneously providing more than enough more than enough energy output to be self-sustaining (the fusion of 1 mole of hydrogen yields enough energy to support the electrolysis of many millions of moles of water).

  25. Guytaur

    Libs are fantaaastic, aren’t they? They live in some sort of time and space bubble.
    Any disasters or even imperfect outcomes are caused by Labor, but everything good by Libs.
    Now suggest some good done by Libs… 😆

  26. The Columbian plebiscite is another example of what can go wrong with a plebiscite. Everyone thought the “Yes” vote would romp home.

  27. Excuse me, but don’t slag hydrigen as an “unproven technology”.

    The wonderful batteries you’re peddling are still catching fire, for fuck’s sake.

    Until that little problem is sorted, I don’t think we can say that battery power – of the type and extent necessary to power all the billions of future motor vehicles of the world – is either “proven” or “mature”.

    A digression… Refugees used to come here by boat. They were mostly Vietnamese fleeing from a war that we participated in. Thus we had some responsibility for the problem of their homelessness. They were desperate.

    But the Greens turned this around, and let the tail wag the dog. In the 2000’s it was assumed that because once upon a time people were desperate enough to come here by boat, then anyone who came here by boat must be desperate. This was despite the well-documented People Smuggling business being exposed, and too many stories of people coming here as economic migrants. No, if you came here by boat then you had to be desperate for a good political reason, not a bad economic/i> one.

    Transfer this thinking to alternative sources of motor power.

    Batteries are a viab le short term solution. That’s all we know or can know for sure, because the term they have been in use is only short. They ware still very expensive. They catch fire or blow up, and they are poisonous to dispose of. We don’t know about the depletion of raw materials needed to manufacture them in numbers, or the environmental consequences of mining those raw materials in quantities that are orders of magnitude greater than at present in both cases.

    But yeah, it’s the solution du jour, perhaps even of the decade. So you back yourselves in to making it the solution forever. Batteries are the only way to power our cars of the future. Burning gases in a motor is bad, when it comes to fossil fuels. Therefore any gases burnt in cars are bad. It’s all quite logical. End of story.

    Just like the only way to prove you’re a desperate refugee fleeing political or religious persecution is to come here by boat. Coming here by boat becomes an end in itself. It gives you the credentials you need. End of that story too… except it’s now being played out as a tragedy for the people involved – who actually have to live the nightmare (rather than point moralistic fingers at other’s about it) – on two beinghted islands to our north. They suffer so the Greens can preen themselves and show off their superior moralistic feathers.

    So right, let’s just dismiss hydrogen as a fuel. It’s not proven technology, despite its combination with oxygen to make water being one of the fundamental reactions of the universe to date. That might change tomorrow. But why wait for tomorrow when we have a solution today? Expensive, combustible, poisonously polluting batteries were are and always will be the way to go, because electric cars are so cool and batteries are the answer today. No need to look any further.

    You confuse some progress being made along alternative energy storage lines as being the end of the exercise. There is no tomorrow. No discoveries or circumstances will alter the beauty of a battery. All the alternatives are polluting, but somehow that question doesn’t need to be asked of batteries, the mining of their raw materials, the means of their production, their safety when in use or the damage they do to the environment when we dispose of them. Just go negative on everything else and battery power will be the last alternative standing. Just sanctify anyone who comes here by boat as a desperate angel, fleeing persecution, with motivations pure of heart and mind, and then anyone who naysays that position must be a monster.

    Life is so simple when the only solutions offered up are simplistic.

  28. I know nothing of the science of it so I’ll defer to others on that. My thinking was triggered by observing how a city handled total blackout.

    Almost all non-essential systems were of course completely disabled, however the supermarket across the road for example must have had a diesel generator as they were able to continue trading.

    It seemed to me that there was the potential for greater resilience than I would have expected – such as mobile signal persisting, the local radio stations continuing to broadcast vital information. However everything just seemed to fall desperately short in critical ways that would have been avoidable. The hospital generator not kicking in for example. The electrified Seaford/Tonsley line was instantly paralysed of course. However, diesel trains were still operational and only had to be shut down because of the fact that the Adelaide Railway Station had no way of operating safely without the exhaust fans to clear the diesel fumes – a health and safety decision.

    Some petrol stations were operational I believe, but not others. And the mobile signal sputtered out after a few hours. Most people with solar battery systems found that their battery storage was perversely useless unless connected to the active mains grid – this seems absurd!

    Seeing that supermarket continue trading when the suburbs around were in a seemingly post-technology miasma of darkness just impressed upon me the wisdom of establishing a network which included redundancy and cleaner burning emergency backup options – a very diverse mix which would possibly include clean liquid/gas fuels as well as large and small scale battery storage. I thought of hydrogen piped from the base of wind farms, but biofuels occur as well.

    My thought wasn’t so much for the power source itself – battery or hydrogen fuels as has become the argument – but that we need a much less centralised network.

  29. BB

    I never ruled out hyrodogen. It was me saying its unproven technology and that is true. Like it or not.

    Batteries are proven technology. Some exploding ones due to faults by a manufacturer no more rules it out than any other product that has a fault.

    Nice strawman though.

  30. Maybe the Queen could give Tones a knighthood.

    I think that the Queen can still award knighthoods off her own bat. Sir David Smith (Secretary to several GGs including Kerr) was on 19 August 1990, after Australia had officially ended Imperial Honours. appointed a Knight Commander of the Royal Victorian Order (KCVO)[14] at a private investiture at Balmoral Castle.[2]

    I think that Abbott still harbours hopes that he will some day humbly accept a knighthood a grateful Queen ar King, or a future Liberal PM, maybe after he retires undefeated from his second stint as PM in the 2030s.

  31. If there was a serious hot war between China and the USA, there would be a risk of it going nuclear, as both side have nuclear weapons.

  32. Hi all and what a beautiful Sharky Morning.
    Just catching up on the past couple of days posts.
    Re the Mighty Sharks winning the NRL Grand Final. Yes Yes Yes.
    Re the numerous comments about Morris-scum being the #1 ticket holder. Let me assure you that there a huge amount of Shark supporters are against him holding that position.
    The grub is a parasite. When our club was on its knees he was never to be seen. The two faced bastard has climbed up on the bandwagon and carries on like the bestus ever-us supporter we have ever had.
    When our lifesaving Development proposal was going through the usual mill he never spoke up for it. His silence was deafening. I have followed my club since Day 1. The closest I have ever come to giving them away was when this bastard started telling the world how great a supporter he is.
    Fair dinkum for a lot of us old diehards he is an embarrassment.
    Mark my words watch the crap that will come out of his mouth now we have won.
    He is tied up with the Happy Clappers up at Sutherland and two of them were the main opponents to the Clubs major development. The Development now approved has guaranteed the clubs future and will create major revenue streams for decades. Narhhh forever.

  33. lizzie
    That Zerohedge article is tainted by a lack of science, IMO.
    There is, as far as I am aware, absolutely no scientifically-demonstrated direct connection between the US west coast fish bleeding from the gills and starfish losing their legs on the one hand, and Fukushima-sourced radiation on the other.

    If the radiation levels on the US west coast were high enough to have these immediate, direct and observable impacts there would hardly be a fish left alive within hundreds of km of Japan.

    So, we still don’t know whether Zerohedge are on to something or not but if they are, it would be the boy who cried wolf time.

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