Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.8, Trump 43.7

After all but closing the gap in the lead-up to last week’s debate, national poll aggregation now finds Donald Trump on more familiar ground.

I’ll be making updates of my presidential election poll tracker a regular Tuesday thing from now until the big day on November 8, five weeks from today. The last week of movement captures Hillary Clinton’s bounce from the debate and the residue of Donald Trump’s erratic form in its wake, with Clinton up from 46.0% to 47.8% and Trump down from 45.0% to 43.7%.

2016-10-04-us-tracker

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

128 comments on “Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.8, Trump 43.7”

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  1. ignoring the part where he says that he grabs women’s genitals against their will and without asking for consent.

    Exactly, the issue isn’t that Trump made “lewd remarks”, it’s that he’s admitted to bragged about taking actions that quite clearly amount to sexual assault.

  4. What a shitshow! Almost none of those answers addressed any of the questions asked. I thought Australian politics was bad in this regard.

    I’m calling it for HRC, she didn’t hit very hard in the moment, but Trump came off positively unhinged. He was interrupting constantly, then whining about having his time cut short, spouting one specious claim after another, rambling and incoherent. He admitted to not discussing key issues with his running mate, tellingly refused to say he had never sexually assaulted anyone and came off desperate and pathetic. HRC was on the defensive for the whole debate, which is a bad position for her, but wisely kept her composure. I like how she pivoted away from the assault allegations against her husband, but still managed to score a shot against Trump for him losing support of the party.

    Debates are more about vibe than content and Trump came off hostile and desperate whereas HRC was calm, composed and apologetic. I can’t see how this won’t be chalked up as a win for her.

  5. In one sense I think Trump succeeded in this debate. He turned the whole event into a personal feud, went the full bully, and avoided any substantive discussion on policy questions, which he normally does badly. The “town hall” format is shown up for the fraud that it is, too easily degenerating into a slanging match. Clinton did not lose, but Trump made sure nobody won. Perhaps his advisors have realised he cannot beat her in a proper debate, so they simply told him to keep shouting and stay on lie. That way he won’t lose any more voters, even though he is still behind and therefore sealing in defeat.

    Only four more weeks and this farce will be over.

  6. Pre-debate polls now released say Clinton had an 11 point lead. This is before a debate that 57 percent say Clinton won and only 34 percent say Trump won (according to CNN).

    This is a slaughter. No doubt that HRC has won it now, the question is whether the Dems will Senate and House of Reps.

  10. At what point does it get bad enough for Trump to start doing serious chances to other Republicans on the ballot for Congress, Senate and governorships? Any data on the relationships between the Potus race and the others? I presume if voters don’t come out to vote for president, they may not come out to vote at all?

  11. This just proves that there are still politicians in the Republican Party and leadership positions who are prepared to excuse ANYTHING Donald Trump says and does:

    6. MINI-TRUMP
    LePage: We Need Trump’s Authoritarianism
    According to Maine Gov. Paul LePage, we may need Donald Trump to show “authoritarian power” in order to bring back the “rule of law” to the United States. Appearing on a Maine radio station Tuesday, the governor reiterated his support for the GOP nominee and dismissed concerns over the leaked audio in which Trump bragged about being able to grope women because of his immense wealth. “Sometimes, I wonder that our Constitution is not only broken, but we need a Donald Trump to show some authoritarian power in our country and bring back the rule of law because we’ve had eight years of a president [Obama], he’s an autocrat, he just does it on his own, he ignores Congress and every single day, we’re slipping into anarchy,” LePage said. And when asked about the damning audio tapes, LePage said: “Is he a slimeball? I’d be the first one to say, not a guy ideally I’d want my daughter going after. But I will tell you one thing, as the head of state, is he going to protect our nation and fight the debt or is he going to go after interns? That’s the bottom line.”

  16. Thanks TPOF – pretty enlightening but scary stuff. Hope the security for Hillary & co is up to the job. Cohn was just about capable of anything. Trump is also pretty sounding scary.

  18. TPOF
    Thanks I was reading that article too. So the one poll showing Trump in front that Republican hopefulls are clinging to is based on a skewed sample. So it might be even worse than they fear.

  19. Socrates

    If the Repug hopefuls have not learnt from the 2012 experience to not put their trust in a single or small number of polls that tell them what they want to hear they are in worse trouble than they could ever imagine.

  20. The Donald’s comments that he “would put crooked Hillary in jail” may soon be ironic:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-13/donald-trump-accused-of-inappropriate-touching-by-two-women-nyt/7929034
    How long before somebody makes a complaint to authorities about Trump, especially now that his power in the media industry looks about to take a major dive? It is all very well for Trump to go into denial and make up conspiracy theories to appeal to his base, but that would not help him in a real court.

  22. The Dems might well win back the Senate, and make gains in the House. Achieving a majority in the House is a long shot… but with Trump weighing on the ballot, anything can happen.
    However, the mid-terms in 2018 will be tough for the Dems. Gains made in the House in 2016, and Senators elected in 2012 (a good year for the Dems), will have a rough ride two years from now. We can assume that the post-Trump GOP will have its shit together, with President Hillary Clinton providing a unifying force.

  24. The Republicans control the House because they control enough states to gerrymander the system. If the Democrats have a good year thanks to Trump I wonder if they might pick up enough states to remove, or substantially dent, that gerrymander?

  25. BC
    “The Republicans control the House because they control enough states to gerrymander the system.”

    The next re-districting will be based on the results of the next census in 2020. So at that time, whichever party controls the state legislature will decide the districts of that state.
    The last time this re-districting happened, the majority of states were in the hands of GOP-controlled legislatures. Hence the GOP-friendly gerrymandering in the current Congress. Both parties do it, but the GOP had the numbers in the last go-round.

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