Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 4 of 75
1 … 3 4 5 … 75

  6. workmanalice: ‘This will be the shortest sign in in history. Senator Giles is coming” Stephen Conroy heckles Nigel Scullion as he takes his oath #auspol

  7. Malcolm will be hoping that everyone has counted the seats correctly. He won’t want to find after the first vote that he doesn’t have a majority after all.

  9. Interesting. Michael Danby didn’t seem to wear a Jewish skullcap when taking the oath but Julian Leeser and Josh Frydenburg did.

  10. I just had my first Census collector visit. I have a paper form now but when I tried to respectfully and politely provide feedback at my disapproval of the changes, he gave me incorrect information. He also said that the ABS had just over half for my area. Interesting. He said I must fill it out quick or he’d be sent back every 3 days until I did. I said well I am not intending to complete it until the last day before due date so he may as well not waste his time returning before then. He recommended I should do it sooner and left. I thanked him and wished him well.

  14. DTT – Then that’s three openly Gay Liberal MPs. I expect nothing from Tim Wilson, because Tim only represents himself. But it will be interesting to see what the other two do.

  15. xoanon @ #127 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:31 am

    I was feeling a bit baffled why opinion writers in the MSM seem so dead keen on having the plebiscite. But of course it would stir up endless outrage and comments and clicks, as the MSM would magnify every offensive opinion no matter how minor the source. Another bloody good reason to knock it on the head.

    Not to mention the big ad spends by both sides. I’d imagine there’d be quite a few full page ads in the papers during the run up to it, as well as 30 second slots on TV and radio.

  22. Is it even certain that Mad Bob would oppose the suspension of standing orders (as distinct from voting in favour of the bill). He can be a bit idiosyncratic.

  23. The hope, presumably, with the omnibus bill was that Labor would agree to pass it before seeing it, and would now be forced to vote for it to avoid looking like they’re wibble wobbling, jelly on a plate.

    Overall, not too stupid a plan I suppose.

    But, once Labor refused to agree in the media to pass the unseen bill, what possible advantage did the Coalition have to include the parts that Labor had never supported?

    They could have hastily redrafted the bill, leaving only things that Labor had previously supported.

    That way:
    * Turnbull gets his first goal. Passing a bill, and looking like he is capable of negotiating.
    * Decrease debt/deficit, which is making the Coalition look bad.
    * Labor look suspicious for not having trusted the Coalition.

    Now, Labor will oppose the whole thing, and Turnbull gets egg on his face. Reverse Midas Touch in full effect.

  24. I wonder what the ABS could do if you fill in the paper form and sign it, but add a note that the information might or might not all be correct.

  25. BK – I never got the whole Slater & Gordon float. It’s not as if they have some special invention or brand name (e.g. Coca Cola) which is worth investing in. There are plenty of law firms out there. The original partners would love the float because they would get huge amounts of lolly. But after that, why would successful partners want to share their loot with shareholders? Doesn’t make sense. So you’d have a slow (or fast) degradation of quality.

  27. The new member for Brisbane will need to tread carefully. He is in a very marginal AND Green leaning seat – unusual in that sense as it is becoming a three way contest. There is also a redistribution due and as the seat is above quota some of the Liberal heartland OR Labor heartland will be removed. The seat is gentrifying as more and more younger professionals move into apartments.

    It also includes the “gay” area of Newfarm.

    All of these factors will increase the importance of the gay vote and their supportive friends.

  28. Just received this email from George Wright a general broadcast to all Labor members. good luck to him in retirement.
    “I just wanted to let you know that earlier today I spoke to staff at the ALP National Secretariat to let them know that after five and a half years in the role I have decided to step down as ALP National Secretary.
    This decision is not one I have come to lightly and have discussed extensively with my family and Labor Leader Bill Shorten.
    But after two federal election campaigns, two ALP National Conferences and numerous by-elections it is time for me to spend more time with my family in my hometown of Melbourne.
    I have considered it an absolute honour and privilege to serve the labour movement as National Secretary of the Party and I want to thank all of you for all the support you have shown Labor and the causes we’ve stood for during my time in the role.

    You have been wonderful and together we have built so much on every front: our information sharing, our activism, our fundraising, our advocacy, our volunteering and our campaigning.
    Much of this work came together in the last federal election campaign where we demonstrated when we work together, just how powerful and effective we can be.
    Because of your commitment and contribution Labor is in good shape in the Parliament and party to take the next step and win government at the federal level.
    Keep standing up and speaking out for the fair, just, and forward looking Australia we all believe in.
    Thanks again,
    George”

  29. https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/08/30/essential-how-would-the-plebiscite-fare-blokes-declare-sexism-finished/

    Aug 30, 2016
    Essential: #plebiscitefail? And blokes declare sexism over
    Who would vote in a same sex marriage plebiscite if it was voluntary? Not everyone — and particularly not opponents, this week’s Essential Report shows. And by the way, men think sexism is over.
    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

    Nearly a fifth of voters would be unlikely to vote in a same-sex marriage plebiscite if it were voluntary — and opponents are significantly more likely to stay home than supporters, Essential Report finds.

    With parliamentary opposition looking likely to derail the Liberal Party’s plan for a national vote on whether same-sex couples should be allowed the same rights as heterosexual couples, 19% of voters say they probably (13%) or definitely (6%) would not vote if the plebiscite were not compulsory. Willingness to vote increases with age — 44% of under-35s say they would “definitely vote”, compared to 58% of people 55 and over — but opponents of same-sex marriage are significantly less likely to vote: 15% of people who support same-sex marriage say they probably or definitely would not vote, compared to 25% of opponents of same-sex marriage, including 11% who say they definitely would not.
    ………………
    On voting intention, the Coalition and Labor are both up a point to 40% and 37% respectively; the Greens and NXT remain on 10% and 4% respectively, for an unchanged two-party preferred outcome of 51%-49% in Labor’s favour.

  30. If the Government insists on forcing the ‘omnibus’* bill through without time for proper consideration, that’s a sure sign that they’re trying to pull a swiftie. It’s the tactic of dodgy salesmen from time immemorial. If they try it on the bill should go straight to a Senate Committee where it can be gone over with a fine toothed comb. New, inexperienced crossbenchers should take note.

    * or is that ‘ominous’?

  31. I wonder what would happen if on your paper form you wrote (on every page) an explicit statement that you DO NOT authorise any data in this form to be provided to other agencies in any format whatever even if de-identified and that should any such data be released in any way that links with medical information, banking information, welfare payments, fines and penalties, overdue accounts, that you will considere this breach an offence and will seek legal redress and compensation from every person who has handled the data starting with the collector and everyother person in the information handling chain.

  32. MarkDiStef: Sinodinos, despite being chair of finance committee, didn’t know Liberal major donor was accepting banned donations. pic.twitter.com/IZDe0a9igN

    https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/770436798803615744
    political_alert: Shorten borrows from Beazley playbook to put Turnbull on the spot over racial tolerance smh.com.au/federal-politi… via @smh #auspolhttps://twitter.com/political_alert/status/770436854394990592

  34. And, as much as I usually respect them (I would say the best of the Australian Media right now), I was very upset by the Project’s marriage equality piece.

    They accepted the logic of:

    Malcolm Turnbull opposes a free vote, therefore Labor, the Greens, NXT and Hinch should accept MT’s position as the only way to approach marriage equality.

    It is equally valid to say:

    Labor, the Greens, NXT and Hinch oppose a plebiscite, therefore Malcolm Turnbull should accept Labor, the Greens, NXT and Hinch’s position as the only way to approach marriage equality.

    Just because MT says something is off the table, doesn’t mean it is off the table. The opposition and crossbench are going to force it back on the table, and we should all be grateful and supportive of all of their hard work towards this.

    A marriage equality bill WILL pass the senate. It will be one of the first bills through that chamber. Once it reaches the HoR, it should pass. Most likely, once it does, Turnbull will let it be known amongst the moderates that he would greatly appreciate it if they could cross the floor, stay home sick or attend a very important conference somewhere.

  35. flameovsthecity: Well said!! #marriageequality #ssm pic.twitter.com/ZIEEhjCZI9https://twitter.com/flameovsthecity/status/770433146642804737

  36. Waleed and Carrie were even worse than Steve Price last night with Wong. I bet they walk back tonight. There has to have been a big backlash. Personally I think Waleed is an overexposed tool who is frequently wrong.

  38. nicole @ #160 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 11:14 am

    I just had my first Census collector visit. I have a paper form now but when I tried to respectfully and politely provide feedback at my disapproval of the changes, he gave me incorrect information. He also said that the ABS had just over half for my area. Interesting. He said I must fill it out quick or he’d be sent back every 3 days until I did. I said well I am not intending to complete it until the last day before due date so he may as well not waste his time returning before then. He recommended I should do it sooner and left. I thanked him and wished him well.

    Idiotic game playing. P1 will be delighted.

  40. nicole @ #160 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 11:14 am

    He also said that the ABS had just over half for my area. Interesting.

    Wow! Half? That’s lower than I would have predicted by this time. In previous years the census collection process would have been over by now, and have achieved something like 97%.

    Do you live in a rural or regional area? Their response rates have been reported as being exceptionally low this time – another structural “bias” (along with the age bias) that will make the data collected very suspect.

  43. daretotread @ #181 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 11:40 am

    I wonder what would happen if on your paper form you wrote (on every page) an explicit statement that you DO NOT authorise any data in this form to be provided to other agencies in any format whatever even if de-identified and that should any such data be released in any way that links with medical information, banking information, welfare payments, fines and penalties, overdue accounts, that you will considere this breach an offence and will seek legal redress and compensation from every person who has handled the data starting with the collector and everyother person in the information handling chain.

    In doing so you would be showing how absolutely clueless you were about what ABS is proposing to do. There is no suggestion that individual date will be released.

  45. SB @ 11.27

    Overall, not too stupid a plan I suppose.

    Given that the critical underpinning of the plan was that Labor was stupider than the Coalition, it was a stupid plan.

  46. Labor’s best plays on SSM and the Ominous Bill are amendments.

    Whack an amendment on the SSM Plebiscite to also hold a Banking Royal Commission and/or approval for Big Business tax cuts. “What have you got against Democracy Malcolm?” That will show them up for the complete frauds they are.

    On the Ominous Bill, also whack on amendments for the Super Changes the Coalition took to the election. Just for the giggles of watching them oppose them because the backbench is at war with Turnbull and Morrison over them.

  47. DTT, I suspect that the ABS would simply ignore (and perhaps snigger at) such statements. If the law allows them to use the information in such ways then they don’t need your authorization.

  50. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@BillShortenMP says he has written to @TurnbullMalcolm seeking affirmation of equal rights #auspol http://snpy.tv/2bVZwsL

    Sky News Australia
    29m29 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp says he has written to the PM seeking support for a motion to reaffirm commitment to equal rights and equal respect #auspol

Comments Page 4 of 75
1 … 3 4 5 … 75

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *