Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. So, no honeymoon for Malcolm.

    Hopefully he can struggle on until he can be booted out by the voters. The alternatives within the “Liberal” party don’t bear thinking about. I’m happy for the Coalition to run the day to day business of Government and enjoy the perks of office until that time. Hopefully they can respond in the national interest to any emergencies that arise in that time. However, I don’t want any of their ‘reforms’. Thankfully, indications so far is that Malcolm will have no more joy from the new Senate that he and Abbott had from the old one.

  2. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14m14 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 34 (-6) Disapprove 52 (+5) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 13m13 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 36 (0) Disapprove 50 (-1) #auspol

  3. Nina – I ended up watching the original interview after that and it was comedy also. Anyway, yawn! Mundane has put me to sleep. Nite All.

  4. Just saw The Project thrashing Labor, Greens, and NXT over not supporting the plebiscite. I must have missed something. When did that program become a mouthpiece for the Coalition?

  5. Thankyou william.

    The PM’s popularity has tumbled to new lows and Coalition ­support has slipped since the election, says Newspoll.”

    How sad. 🙂

  6. No doubt those nitwits that thought that after the election Turbull would emerge like Gandalf the white and lead Australia to great things, are becoming disillusioned, all they got was Gollum.

  7. From previous thread:

    question @ #2672 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:38 pm

    I haven’t read Pikkety, but I have read enough articles to know I am largely in agreement with his thesis. I call myself a Keynesian.
    A good program is “Inequality for all”, which also talks about the effect of WWII on economics. It’s from the U.S. but fits here just as neatly.

    Yes I’ve seen that. We could use more people like Robert Reich at the moment.

  8. kevin-one-seven @ #1 Monday, August 29, 2016 at 11:49 pm

    QUESTION – When was the last time there was no leader’s bounce. Tones got a massive one, if I recall.

    Abbott had one stellar Newspoll after winning but on cross-poll aggregate I never had him above the election level of 53.5. He did get a bounce on personal ratings. Gillard 2010 was a similar story, also not too much to see for a victory bounce for Hawke in 1990.

  9. Damn. Draw.
    Turnbull’s 2PP polling scores are three losses one draw. This gets him back to having 30 polls up his sleeve before he must resign.

  10. The Andrews government is being led by the nose by Melbourne’s de facto premier planning authority, Transurban, into creating a dystopian city. Melbourne’s current claim to be the world’s most liveable city will be a distant memory in the interests of making Transurban rich beyond the dreams of Croesus.

    Transurban has already been called out as the emperor with no clothes by the former Victorian premier, Jeff Kennett, whose government negotiated the original CityLink franchise, which is among the most profitable toll roads in the world – thanks to the negotiating skills of then Treasurer, Alan Stockdale. Stockdale then resigned his commission to join the lead banker for the Public Private Partnership partners, Macquarie Bank, as a non-executive director of the bank’s asset and infrastructure group on a salary of $500,000 a year.

  11. Australia is building too many poor-quality high-rise apartment towers that are alienating to live in and have low environmental performance, one of the nation’s most widely respected residential architects has warned.

    It comes as an author of a new book on planning in Melbourne warns the city’s concentration of high-rise towers in the city centre is going to lead to a “city that is unliveable within a generation”.

    Sydney-based architect Kerry Clare, who designed Melbourne’s award-winning Docklands Library, has warned that sky-high living is harming the nation’s urban fabric.

    “High-rise living has a number of drawbacks including social isolation and diminished public realm amenity,” said Professor Clare, who with partner Lindsay Clare won the 2010 Gold Medal for Architecture, the nation’s highest honour from the Australian Institute of Architects.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    ICAC comes out and bites Liberal MPs right where it hurts!
    This Youi mob really deserves to go down.
    Stand by for climate change to belt coffee prices.
    Brandis brings heightened meaning to the term “mealy mouthed”.
    Matthew Knott tells us that there will be no free vote on SSM. The RMNJs are winning. Again!
    Shaun Carney writes that the plebiscite is dead and that we should get ready for another unproductive parliament. Google.
    Michelle Grattan on Bob Brown saying that the plebiscite should be kept open as a last resort for SSM.
    Kristina Keneally implores Turnbull to allow a free vote on SSM.
    Sharri Markson has the drum on Operation Spicer where Nathan Tinkler and lots of other names who will get quite adverse mentions when the report gets released today. Google.
    The ICAC Operation Spicer report will certainly make for some interesting reading today. I wonder what it will say about Arfur. Google.
    There are some really nice types around aren’t there!
    The letters to the SMH editor pile into Vanstone’s pathetic article of yesterday.

  13. Section 2 . . .

    David Crowe from The Australian says that Turnbull’s charm hasn’t worked on the new senators. Google.
    Ian McCauley on Morrison’s economic gobbledegook. Quite a good dissection of the recent speech.
    The senate crossbenchers reveal what issues they will fight for.
    The Independent Australia also has its say on Morrison’s speech.,9405
    The “Giles for Canberra” tilt gets off to a rocky start.
    Archbishop Roger Herft was very mush exposed at yesterday’s CA Royal Commission hearing. And he’s back for more this morning!
    Will the Work Health and Safety Act catch the government out when it comes to offshore detention?,9408
    The rise and rise of the “alt-right”.

  14. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner part 2

    Alan Moir thinks the knight in shining armour is in a bit of trouble.
    Andrew Dyson brings Barnaby in to sort out the dairy industry.
    There’s a lot to see in this classic from David Pope!
    A good one from Mark Knight on the moral challenge that Morrison’s been spruiking.
    Jon Kudelka and a failed political marriage.

  15. Interesting bit of information from Laura Tingle speaking to Marius Benson on Newsradio just now, that Malcolm Turnbull, while professing support for SSM, would likely run dead during the plebiscite campaign and not give the ‘Yes’ campaign his vigorous, committed, full-throated support. This, again, goes back to the MPs on the Right who can count and who would keep reminding Malcolm that they can count.

    Labor knows this and it is apparently another reason why they are considering whether to back the Enabling Legislation for the Plebiscite or not. For even if they did, the Prime Minister would only give the ‘Yes’ campaign tepid support, which would likely contribute to it sinking under the weight of the more vociferous Churches& ‘Family’ Groups bloc of ‘No’ campaigners.

    So it likely wouldn’t end up being legislated for in this term of parliament anyway.

  16. Morning all… It would be interesting to see a poll comparing Turnbull’s popularity with Abbott’s. But I digress. Leadership speculation is only used to undermine Labor leaders with threadbare parliamentary majorities. It would be so unfair to start raising such speculation about the Liberals. So unfair.

  17. Also, the government did a “Oh did we forget something!?!” trick with the Omnibus Budget Bill legislation and finally dropped it off to the Labor Party very late last night.

    They truly are the party of Mr Toad.

  18. Thanks BK. Looking at all the Liberal shenanigans involving corporate money, the lack of a national ICAC is becoming a national disgrace. Our federal politics is becoming badly corrupted, with the corrupters then desperate to keep the government in power.

  19. Mundine told a little story last night, the implications of which seemed to go right over people’s heads (including Mundine).

    He says he stopped an Aboriginal boy in the street and asked him why he wasn’t at school.

    They then worked through the usual arguments, culminating in the kid gesturing at the nearby shops and asking how many Aboriginal people were working there.

    Mundine interpreted this as a lack of role models – the kid had no examples of people like himself working, therefore he didn’t see himself as capable of working – and apparently missed the ‘they don’t employ people like me, so what’s the point?” interpretation.

    Of course, one way casts it as a ‘black fellas problem’ – the other as a white fella one.

  20. C@Tmomma

    Labor could justifiably insist on being given time to examine the Bill, ignoring the Libs’ cries of moral indignation. You’re right, they’re up to every unfair trickiness their devious little minds can fabricate.

  21. The Liberals seem to be playing their games with an eye to the media – “Why did we need to give Labor more time to read the Bill? It was about policies they’d already agreed to” – when they should have their eyes on the Senate.

    This is exactly what they did last time around, which resulted in an initially supportive Senate going completely offside.

    The media may ignore the fact that dumping a Bill on a party five seconds before midnight does not allow time for proper discussion and scrutiny; the Senate won’t.

    Of course, another reason for this might be that they are making timelines tight so that Shorten has to make a series of Captain’s Calls, rather than consulting the party room, in the hope that that will destabilise his leadership.

    They haven’t been able to panic Shorten in this way in the past, but they’re slow learners.

  22. The proportion of Australia’s working age population that receives income support is much lower than it was in the mid-1990s, according to new Parliamentary library research.

    Researchers say relatively low unemployment rates in Australia, and successive tightening of eligibility requirements for some support payments, has seen the proportion of the working-age population claiming income support decline significantly to 16.6%, from a peak of over 25% in 1994.

    Jenny Macklin, Labor’s spokeswoman for Family and Payments, said the finding suggests the treasurer, Scott Morrison, should “stop trying to divide Australians” by suggesting we live in a country of “taxed and taxed nots”, as he did during a major speech on the economy last week.

  23. As well as being very tardy with presenting the detail to labor the Omnibus budget bill contains one or two savings measures that labor did not include in its own per election savings and at least one that labor has previously opposed.

    So much for accusing labor of playing politics and the constant questioning from the MSM as to why labor did not just accept the legislation sight unseen.

    The Libs cannot help themselves.


  24. Michael Kirby has the lived experience to back his judgement. This is arrogance personified by Brandis. Unless he’s coming out as gay!

    Eddy Jokovich ‏@EddyJokovich · 9h9 hours ago

    Brandis says Michael Kirby has no greater insight than anyone else into marriage equality. He was a High Court judge FFS. #lateline

  25. Lizzie,
    The point about those Income Support Payments figures is obvious to Blind Freddy. In 1994 Australia was in Recession, or just coming out of it with those payments being a lagging indicator.

    Ever since then we have been on an upward trajectory, and so the figure has steadily dropped.

  26. Lizzie,
    I’m sure Michael Kirby well remembers the, Bill Heffernan-inspired, attempt to get Justice Kirby, simply because he was a homosexual.

  27. Morning bludgers

    Thanks BK for today’s reports


    I missed Qanda too, and havent decided if I should bother with iview

  28. Where on earth does Paline get her ‘facts’ from?

    TOM IN OZ ‏@SirThomasWynne · 2h2 hours ago
    You have people out there with Muslims backgrounds that have four wives on welfare says @PaulineHandsome #pmlive
    Sky News Australia

  29. ABC politics blog just now:

    <p.Govt 'mad' for deceptive budget bargaining

    Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke has been speaking to AM about the omnibus legislation for budget repair.

    The government waited until last night to reveal the details of the $6 billion legislative package, and before that was adamant the measures were all supported by Labor in the election campaign.

    But Mr Burke says the government has been deceptive about the savings measures it plans to introduce.

    He says the bill contains extra cuts that Labor never supported, and the government is taking huge risks with such a slim majority.

  30. Citizen

    I missed Tony Burke on AM radio, but the twitterverse has comments like this

    John Wren
    9m9 minutes ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    Just heard @tony_burke on @774melbourne. Very impressive. Government is in serious trouble before it even sits. #auspol

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