ReachTEL: 50-50 in New South Wales

A new-ish poll records the end of the five-year honeymoon of the Coalition government in New South Wales.

While my attention was diverted by the Northern Territory election, the Sydney Morning Herald published a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention on Saturday which showed the two parties tied on two-party preferred, which is the best result Labor have had in many long years, with the exception of a solitary Nielsen outlier from February 2014. After exclusion of the 8.1% undecided, primary votes are Coalition 42.9%, Labor 38.0% and Greens 8.7%. Rather surprisingly, Labor’s Luke Foley recorded a 51.3-48.7 lead over Premier Mike Baird as preferred premier. The poll also found 51% supportive of the government’s decision to ban greyhound racing, with 31.4% opposed; 69.9% supportive of the 1.30am lockout law in Kings Cross and the central business district, with only 15.3% opposed; and 58.8% supporting the expansion of the policy to the rest of the state, with 24.9% opposed. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1609.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50 in New South Wales”

  1. William,
    There has been some scepticism in the press and on the internet surrounding the claim that the majority of 18-34 year olds support lockout laws (the question was put during this poll). Do you have any breakdown of the number of respondents in each age category (18-34, 35-50, 51-65, 65+), and how they may have extrapolated?

  2. Do you really beleve that?
    After all its Joe who has been referred to the crown prosector and Sinodenis has been let off. I think the last issue Sussex St will bring up is corruption.

  3. September 5 2016 – 12:15AM
    Key metro and regional seats at risk for Mike Baird government amid popularity plunge
    Sean Nicholls

    The seat of Penrith – a symbol of the Coalition’s success in western Sydney at the 2011 NSW election that brought it to power – is at serious risk of falling to Labor amid a slide in popularity for the Baird government, new polling shows.

    A ReachTEL poll commissioned by the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union (AMWU) shows Labor’s primary vote in Penrith at 37.9 per cent compared with the Liberals’ 32.2 per cent.

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