Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. rex douglas @ #3696 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    I’m sure the non rusted on swinging voters in Australia are aghast at the same/same parliamentary cartel harbouring lobbyists for foreign entities within their parliamentary ranks.

    Too wordy, Rex. People will turn off before they get halfway through your message.

    Stick to “Shorten baaaaad!”

  2. Just watching Better Call Saul on Stan ……. 2015 prequel to Breaking Bad.

    One of the main themes is very interesting …… taking drugs makes people very aggro ….. unpredictably so, right out of the blue.

    Now for next episode. Can’t wait.

  3. STEVE – I’m looking at my handsome visage right now, wondering whether I should do a bit more man-scaping or leave perfection alone. Presumably then, everybody can see their own avatar, but not everyone elses!

    Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 2:15 pm
    I note that Laura Tingle said today that Shortie had to dump Dastyari. Shows how wrong she can be.

    Laura knows full well that Dastyari the lobbyist is Bill Shortens factional brother.

  5. Who are these journalists to say what Shorten should do re Dastyari? Piss off Id say to the media and try investigating something for once.These right wing journos are worse than pathetic.

  6. Player One, I passed that on. Thanks.

    Here is the National Commission of Audit (NCOA) final report’s chapter on Technology which I have not linked to previously. It discusses among other things:
    -Rationale for government intervention
    -Big Data
    -Open Government Data

    It also refers to and links to Attachment 10.23.1, the Productivity Commission Report which I have referred to before but important.

    The Australian Public Service Commission’s Capability Review: Australian Bureau of Statistics link below:

  7. Well, Psychlaw’s guitar, Rex’s turquoise pattern, P1’s maroon pattern, Bemused’s Thinker and my lizard are there. Randon avatars including Kevin and AR are missing.

  8. Kevin,

    I read that article by Tingle.

    It does not surprise me that she is full on Sam must go.

    It has to be remembered that it was the AFR which published the story re Sam D. and his supposed comments at the press conference. The story was based on the ” evidence” of the quotes attributed to him in that Chinese media release.

    I would be very surprised if the journo who wrote the article made any attempt to verify the authenticity of those attributed statements. There was a rush to get the article out it appears as it followed closely on from the initial story by fellow Fairfax hack Latika Bourke the day before.

    The AFR has a bit of a problem if Sam can show what he actually said. Hacks at the AFR are simply making a preemptive strike to cover one or two arses.


  9. Perhaps the Gravatars have been kidnapped and are being held to ransom by the an international syndicate of criminals.

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