Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Player 1

    GGs’

    Whatever you do in your sheltered workshop is fine by me.

    That’s just a variation on bemused’s: Haven’t you taken your meds?

    You know, you’re a loony tune.

  2. From Wikipedia:

    ‘The term sheltered workshop refers to an organization or environment that employs people with disabilities separately from others. The term ‘sheltered workshop’ is considered outdated in the U.K. and the U.S., and increasingly in Australia.’

    Figures.

  8. Kezza

    NSW Leaving Certificate.

    And I’m pretty sure Bemused is correct. Last Leaving Certificate in NSW 1965, then a a gap year 1966 whilst the first HSC mob did their 6th year, then first HSC in 1967.

    Of course kids earned their Leaving Certificate, and in 1967 they began handing out the HSC to all and sundry. The younger generation always got it easier!

    I’m sure Bemused came over to NSW to do the LC, because he wanted a real qual, not the mickey mouse handout from Victoria.

  9. What to believe

    the secret report at today’s hearing.

    Labor Member Harriet Shing told the hearing the report recommended undermining the union’s capacity and questioned the choice of law firm.

    “Why did you go to a firm in the US that specialises in union-busting?” she asked.

    Ms Nolan rejected the claim.

    “I certainly have no idea what their background is in the US, they were recommended to us as being experts in terms of industrial relations and EBs [EBAs].”

  13. Totally agree that political donations should be limited TO PEOPLE on the electoral roll and capped. However, there is no reason why unions (and any other group) should not be allowed to collect money from such people and pass it on to political parties provided there is transparency about who is providing it. Even Corporations should be allowed to collect money in that manner, provided they collect the money from people on the electoral roll and disclose that fact. However, they should NOT be allowed to use their balance sheets to make political donations.

  18. Player One,
    I spoke to a contact from the Australian Privacy Foundation. They are intending on making a submission which is good to know. He was unaware of the NCOA and Productivity Commission putting pressure on the ABS and also the Capability Review of the ABS done by the Productivity Services Commission, so I have sent links. He is also interested in any evidence anyone might have in regards to the cause of the crash of the website on Census night if you know of anything. I told him I would let him know if I encountered anything of interest.

  20. kezza2
    #3666 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 1:28 pm
    Dan Gulberry
    #3667 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 1:28 pm
    Very mysterious. Some still showing. I cannot get under the bed. I will hide under the blankets until the dog alerts me safe time has arrived.
    I suspect that some unwise words have been said about Crikey. Is there as spy among out august company? 😛

  23. My daughter is very happy with what she achieved on Council. She secured funding for a number of park developements in the area, ensured a couple of rampant developments were altered, forced a lot more accountability/transaprency from the Council about a major Shopping Centre developement and confronted and forced changes of attitude from a couple misogynistic old farts about their behaviour.

    She also focussed a lot of attention on the Arts and Youth services.

    At 23, she decidee that the never ending cycle of meetings and committments were a grind. She wanted to travel, develop a social life and look to make a career. All of which she has done.

    Whether she reurns to the political fray at some time in the future is uncertain.

  24. Just a thought re Gravatar.
    Gravatar.com have made some changes to their site.
    Perhaps a check by PB might be in order. Reconfirm gravatar.

  26. psyclaw @ #3658 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 1:17 pm

    Kezza
    NSW Leaving Certificate.
    And I’m pretty sure Bemused is correct. Last Leaving Certificate in NSW 1965, then a a gap year 1966 whilst the first HSC mob did their 6th year, then first HSC in 1967.
    Of course kids earned their Leaving Certificate, and in 1967 they began handing out the HSC to all and sundry. The younger generation always got it easier!
    I’m sure Bemused came over to NSW to do the LC, because he wanted a real qual, not the mickey mouse handout from Victoria.

    Actually, I did it before coming to Victoria and the then Vic HSC and also the Tech equivalent were genuinely of a higher standard than the NSW LC. But so they should have been, they took an extra year.

    The rot set in in Victoria when the mad educational ideology of Kirnerism took hold and gave us the VCE. I did hope the Libs might fix the idiot thing, but all they did was kept it and slashed the funding.

  28. nicole @ #3668 Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 1:30 pm

    I spoke to a contact from the Australian Privacy Foundation. They are intending on making a submission which is good to know. He was unaware of the NCOA and Productivity Commission putting pressure on the ABS and also the Capability Review of the ABS done by the Productivity Services Commission, so I have sent links.

    All good to know. Can you post the links here?

    He is also interested in any evidence anyone might have in regards to the cause of the crash of the website on Census night if you know of anything. I told him I would let him know if I encountered anything of interest.

    I have no personal evidence that it was a simple overload and not a DDoS attack, but these guys do:

    http://www.digitalattackmap.com/#anim=1&color=0&country=ALL&list=0&time=17022&view=map

    Surprise, surprise! No DDoS attack detected on August 9.

    The problem of course is that it is hard to prove a negative. However, I think if there was any evidence at all of a DDoS attack it would have emerged by now. But there are plenty of people who do monitor net traffic, including various government agencies, who should be able to say definitively if there was a DDoS attack occurring at that time and place.

    I’m sure this will come out during the inquiry, but to me the web server crash is merely amusing and entirely incidental. The real problem is the jackbooted manner in which the ABS tried to infringe on our privacy. All the server crash did was bring this issue to the public’s attention (and keep it there while while people were filling in their census form). The ridiculous “Your Data is Safe” blitzkrieg that the ABS then launched did exactly the same thing, of course – it made people ask “Oh really?”… and not like the answer they got when they did even the most simple investigation.

  38. GG

    I reckon hats off to your daughter, firstly for having a go, secondly for winning and doing the hard yards of council, and thirdly, for using that experience/putting it behind her, and moving on to something else.

    I’m sure she learned a lot. You must be proud.

  44. As I thought, everyone has jumped on the bandwagon prematurely:

    Senator Dastyari has provided a short written statement, and has said no more publicly. He has not conducted any interviews.

    “I’m not responsible for how the Chinese Media report my comments. I support the position of the Labor Party on the South China Sea and all other foreign policy matters,” the statement said.

    Senator Dastyari has told the ABC he has no recording of what was said at the media event, and so far attempts to track down a written, audio or visual file have met a dead end.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-06/sam-dastyari-and-the-south-china-sea-quote-causing-trouble/7818588

    My prediction: The Coalition is going to end up wishing that they had waited until a transcript/recording of the media event surfaced, because when one does it’s going to show that Dastyari was simply the victim of (probably deliberate) mistranslation by a Chinese-owned media outlet. And then they’re going to look really, really stupid.

  45. Bemused

    Ooooh, vision exceptionally poor. Oh, I’m so cracked up. Call ambulance, I need stitches.

    FFS. You think you’re so damn clever, don’t you. But you’re not. You just come across as a dickhead. And a complete dickhead most of the time.

  46. I’m sure the non rusted on swinging voters in Australia are aghast at the same/same parliamentary cartel harbouring lobbyists for foreign entities within their parliamentary ranks.

    Australian sovereignty sold by the cartel to the highest foreign bidder.

  47. I would have thought that even if there was a blanket ban on corporate/union donations, that would help the labor party. The unions could still campaign (at arms length) and provide foot-soldiers. I don’t think it would be anywhere near as easy for corporations to come in on the side of the Libs.

  49. Not surprisingly, Shorten refuses to bow to Turnbull’s demands:

    [Shorten refuses to sack Dastyari
    1:09PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
    Bill Shorten says he has given “junior Senator’’ Sam Dastyari a second chance because he’s a “bright young man”.]

    This whole sage of ‘Chinese influence’ is now spiralling out of Turnbull’s control. The issue has moved on to political donations from foreign entities and both Bernardi and Di Natale are saying the same thing.

    Shock jock Jones today said that Dastyari had broken no laws or even guidelines and the much bigger issues of political donations, Federal ICAC, banks etc etc and “repairing Australia” were at stake.

    I think that Turnbull’s ABCC, in the limited anti-CFMEU form that he wants, will flounder in the Senate unless he accedes to demands for much wider intervention in business practices and political donations. There’s still hope for a banking RC.

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