Presidential election minus 10 weeks

National polling in the US over the fortnight shows a slight narrowing in the blowout lead Hillary Clinton recorded in the wake of the Democratic convention.

A new thread for discussion of the US presidential election campaign. Here is an update of the poll tracker I last run a fortnight ago. Hillary Clinton is now at 46.7%, down from 47.7%, while Donald Trump is up from 38.5% to 41.4%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7 comments on “Presidential election minus 10 weeks”

  1. While I doubt Trump has a chance, Nate Silver @ 538 gives his odd’s (19.1%) at a tad better than blowing your brains out in a game of Russian Roulette .

  2. Actually, the national score re polling, while interesting, is not particularly relevant. The Presidential election is actually 51 (inc DC) individual elections for the Electoral College, and here there are only about eight elections worth watching – Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada & Florida – on the road to 270 EC votes.

    The Democrats have won states totalling 242 in each of the last 6 elections, and have won New Mexico in all but one (so 247). Of the rest, Clinton is miles ahead in both Virginia (13), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4), which already puts her over the line with 273. Given that she also holds consistent leads in all the other swing states (and indeed is competitive in hitherto GOP strongholds like Georgia and Arizona), it’s hard hard to see anything other than a solid Clinton win, and most probably a landslide.

  3. Agree with Hugo’s analysis. The U.S. election will be decided by the electoral college, not the popular vote. The Clinton campaign clearly understands this, and has been focusing a ton of effort on battleground states and also on turning “safe” GOP states into battleground states. On the other hand the Trump campaign hasn’t shown much evidence of having a clear EC strategy, hasn’t made any inroads in any “safe” Dem states, hasn’t been effective at defending its positions from Clinton, and generally tends to continually alienate the very demographics that it needs to actually win the election.

    Without a major shift in strategic direction, Trump is heading for a landslide defeat in the electoral college. Clinton could be looking at close to 400 EV’s. Even with a major shift in strategy, I don’t see Trump making up that kind of deficit. Certainly not against Clinton. She knows the game far too well for that.

  4. Clinton’s ahead but no certainty, according to the conversation on Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight.

    It could blow out to a big Clinton win, but there’s almost as much chance that Trump could snatch it. The debates are yet to come and polling in some key states is limited. A long way to go.

    At the moment the Dems are struggling a bit in some of the races they need for a Senate majority.

  5. Yep, the Dems are struggling to pick up all the seats they need to win back the Senate. At some point the GOP may decide that Trump is a lost cause, and re-allocate campaign funds to Senate, House, and Governor candidates In 1996, when the writing was on the wall for a (Bill) Clinton victory, the GOP bailed on Dole and poured their $$$ into down-ticket races.


  6. About two weeks ago, I was relaxed about the election – after weeks of finger-nail biting. Trump had self-destructed, I reasoned.

    Now I’m watching compulsively the constantly-updated 538 percentage probability on who will win the presidency. (I watch what they call the “polls plus” figure that includes data such as non-farm payrolls jobs figures, along with factoring all the national and state polls).

    That figure is now approaching 30 per cent for Trump. Could it be, I panic, that Kellyanne Conway is going to get Trump over the line simply be forcing him to read teleprompters and say things that are marginally more reasonable?

    If the figure gets anywhere near 40 per cent, I’ll need a Bex.

  7. Latest polling is pretty worrying, with Reuters-Ipsos having both candidates in a tie nationally. Other polls have Trump 5% ahead in Iowa and only 1% behind in Virginia.

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