Northern Territory election live

Live coverage of the count for the Northern Territory election.

Saturday

Very small numbers of votes have been added to the count over the last few days, suggesting only the very closest seats remain beyond doubt. Of those there are three – Adam Giles’ seat of Braitling, where Labor’s lead is down two since the last update to 23; Willem Westra van Holthe’s seat of Katherine, where the latest batch of 28 votes has worn Labor’s lead down from 39 to 29; and Nhulunbuy, where a very small trickle of new votes has been sufficient to reduce independent Yingiya Mark Guyula’s lead over Labor’s Lynne Walker from 22 votes to 11. Other than that, it’s Labor 16, CLP two, independents four.

Wednesday evening

Most counts have progressed today with the addition of various bits of piece, which find Terry Mills’ lead over Labor’s Damian Hale in Blain up from 87 to 97; Labor’s lead over Adam Giles in Braitling up from 11 to 25; Labor’s lead over Delia Lawrie in Karama up from 33 to 59; Labor’s lead over Willem Westra van Holthe in Katherine down from 41 to 39; and independent Yingiya Mark Guyula’s lead over Lynne Walker in Nhulunbuy down from 35 to 22. Leads for Labor in Brennan and the CLP in Daly increased, and are unlikely to be reversed.

Tuesday evening

Nothing today from Braitling, Karama, Katherine or Nhulunbuy, and only insignificant rechecking from Port Darwin. In Blain, 519 absents broke 240-226 to Damian Hale, reducing Terry Mills’ lead from 101 to 87. In Brennan, 473 absents broke 252-212 to Labor, increasing their lead to 198. In Daly, 585 out-of-division pre-polls broke 288-227 to the CLP while 254 absents broke 112-109 to Labor, increasing CLP member Gary Higgins’ lead from 128 to 186.

Monday 6pm

After some scattered counting of absents and rechecking:

Barkly. Labor’s Gerry McCarthy (1254, 45.0%) leads independent Elliot McAdam (802, 28.8%) and is presumably safe here, particularly on account of the the ill-advised direction from the CLP (424, 15.2%) to its voters to number only one box. However, there is still no two-candidate preferred count.

Blain. We now have a two-candidate preferred candidate which is good news for Terry Mills, showing him leading Labor’s Damian Hale by 1548 votes to 1447.

Braitling. Labor candidate Dale Wakefield’s 21-vote lead on election night has been pared back to 11 votes, with absents breaking 92-81 in Adam Giles’ favour.

Brennan. Presumably a lock for Labor, whose candidate Tony Sievers leads CLP incumbent Peter Chandler by 1627 to 1470, but I’m keeping it on the watch list regardless. No further progress in the count.

Daly. Gary Higgins leads 1242 to 1114 and will presumably retain the seat, but I’m holding off to see if still-to-be-reported early voting results turn up anything dramatic. No further progress so far.

Karama. Absent votes have pushed Labor’s Ngaree Jane Ah Kit into the lead, breaking 196-102 in her favour. She now leads Delia Lawrie by 1604 to 1571, a margin of 33.

Katherine. Absent votes and rechecking have left intact the slim lead for Labor’s Sandra Nelson over CLP member Willem Westra van Holthe, which is now at 1748 to 1707, a margin of 41.

Nhulunbuy. We now have a two-candidate preferred candidate which gives independent Yingiya Mark Guyula a 35-vote lead over Labor member Lynne Walker, of 1577 votes to 1542. Absent votes were added, breaking 70-46 to Guyula, and primary votes rechecked.

Port Darwin. No progress in the count, with Labor’s Paul Kirby holding a probably insurmountable lead of 1640 to 1449 over CLP candidate Rohan Kelly.

End of Saturday night

The table below provides a summary of the situation, with seat change figures based on the 2012 election result, rather than the configuration of parliament going into the election.

2016-08-28-nt-result

The only seat that has definitely been retained by the CLP is the new seat of Spillett, covering the stretch between Darwin and Palmerston. In the capital, Drysdale (Labor leads by 5.8% after 17.3% swing), Fong Lim (9.1%, 9.3% swing), Port Darwin (3.1%, 12.8% swing) and Sanderson (11.2%, 14.3% swing) are lost to Labor, as almost certainly is Brennan (2.5%, 16.5% swing). The CLP has also lost Blain, but it remains to be seen if the winner will be Damian Hale for Labor or Terry Mills as an independent. On the other hand, Labor trails by 1.2% in Karama, which former Labor leader Delia Lawrie seeks to retain as an independent.

The result in the six indigenous majority seats was even better for Labor, who won back all four CLP-held seats, including Alison Anderson’s old seat of Namatjira (Labor leads by 10.8%, 31.3% swing) and the three losses from 2012, Stuart (29.7%, 35.2% swing), Arafura (5.5%, 7.9% swing) and Arnhem (14.6%, 18.9% swing). However, Labor’s Lynne Walker may lose Nhulunbuy to independent Yingiya Mark Guyula (no two-candidate preferred count, but Labor leads by 2.6% on the primary vote).

The CLP suffered its biggest swings of all in the six non-Darwin seats without indigenous majorities, but in this case the votes were mostly absorbed by independents, who have won in Goyder (Kezia Purick, who leads by 23.6%) and Araluen (Robyn Lambley by 8.1%) to supplement Gerry Wood in Nelson. Each of the other three seats won by the CLP in 2012 is in danger of falling to Labor, including Adam Giles’ seat of Braitling in Alice Springs (Labor leads by 0.2%, 19.8% swing), Willem Westra van Holthe’s seat of Katherine (0.5%, 22.7% swing) and the northern pastoral seat of Daly (CLP leads by 2.4%, 2.8% swing).

Election night

12.07pm. The last result of the night from Karama, from the Casuarina pre-poll booth, was a good one for Delia Lawrie, turning her four-vote deficit into a 69 vote lead.

11.03pm. I had my eye off the ball in Nhulunbuy all night, where Labor’s Lynne Walker is being run close by independent Yingiya Mark Guyula. In Nhulunbuy itself, Walker outpolled Guyula 77.2% to 9.4%, but in the booths serving the remote areas, Guyula won 61.6% to 25.0%. The overall result is Walker 44.6% to Guyula 42.0%, with no preference count available.

10.42pm. New numbers at last from Port Darwin, with all outstanding booths reporting in one hit. Labor ends the night with a lead of 191.

10.17pm. The first of three mobile booths in Namatjira has broken heavily enough to Labor’s Chansey Paech to put him in the lead by 239, which will presumably widen from here.

10.14pm. Three booths now in from Stuart, where the CLP’s Bess Price has suffered a remarkably heavy defeat at the hands of Labor’s Scott McConnell, who leads 1520 votes to 457.

10.10pm. A mobile booth just made it closer in Daly, one of the few seats that were looking good for the CLP, whose lead narrows from 212 votes to 115.

9.55pm. The Palmerston early voting booth has pushed Terry Mills into second place in Blain, from which he would have a show at beating Labor’s Damian Hale on CLP preferences. Current score: Labor 38.4%, Mills 29.3%, CLP 27.0%.

9.28pm. A lot of votes still to come in Blain, where Terry Mills is stuck in third place and needing to overtake one of the major parties to win on their preferences. The alternative possibility is that Damian Hale wins the seat for Labor.

9.24pm. Willem Westra van Holthe doing worse on preferences than I’d have anticipated, and has a very slight deficit on the raw two-party vote.

9.19pm. Mobile booths have dumped Francis Xavier Kurrupuwa’s lead in Arafura, in another blow for the CLP. Now looking a win for Labor’s Lawrence Costa.

9.11pm. Finally a mobile booth result in from Stuart, and it’s indeed a big win for Labor’s Scott McConnell (341, 53.4%) over CLP member Bess Price (140, 22.3%).

9.02pm. The ABC computer has actually got Labor to 15 now, because it’s giving them Braitling, Drysdale and Port Darwin.

8.58pm. Finally some numbers from Fannie Bay, which means the ABC is now calling that for Labor. That makes Labor 12, CLP 1 and others 2, with nine not called. There are still no numbers for Stuart, but apparently Labor is expected to win. So there’s 13 for Labor. I’d also expect them to win Barkly, and for independents to prevail in Blain and Araluen. But I wouldn’t care to call Braitling, Drysdale, Daly or Namatjira; or Karama, which could go Labor or independent.

8.55pm. All fixed booths in now from Braitling, where Labor leads Adam Giles by 2102 votes to 2092. So no result there this evening.

8.53pm. Labor firming in Barkly – independent McAdam second, but Labor’s 46.7% primary should be more than enough.

8.44pm. Still awaiting more numbers from Araluen, where Lambley leads the CLP 418-337 after preferences, but with a lot of votes still to come.

8.43pm. Looking tight in Karama between Delia Lawrie and Labor. Preferences are in from Manunda Terrace, and they made little change to the margin from the primary vote — and the two are practically dead level on the primary vote.

8.40pm. Still only anecdotal evidence available for Stuart, but it’s apparently a Labor gain.

8.38pm. So the CLP has won Spillett; it might win Katherine, Daly, Braitling, Brennan, Port Darwin and, for all anyone knows, Namatjira. But it’s clearly behind in Brennan and Port Darwin.

8.28pm. Second Fong Lim booth, Ludmilla, has CLP down 11.4% and Labor steady, essentially confirming a Labor win.

8.17pm. Second booth from Braitling is Larapinta, a much stronger booth for the CLP than Sadadeen, but here too the CLP is down around 19% and Labor up around 15%. But with a margin of 19.6%, Giles seems to have his nose in front.

8.13pm. Three booths in from Spillett now and Lia Finnochiaro looking good for the CLP with 56.7%.

8.12pm. Darwin City booth the first result from Port Darwin: CLP down 18.1%, Labor up 6.1%, margin 9.7%. So very likely Labor win, but not calling it yet.

8.10pm. Result from Berry Springs in Daly suggests a Labor win, but not definitively: CLP down 13%, Labor steady, CLP margin 5.2%.

8.07pm. Labor wins Stuart Park both, which is transferred from Fannie Bay to Fong Lim, has been won by Labor, but now with any discernible swing. So this one isn’t over yet.

8.05pm. Disastrous first result from Braitling for Adam Giles, who loses Sadadeen booth (784 votes) to Labor by 35.1% to 32.4%.

8.04pm. 63 votes from Sadadeen are less good for independent Robyn Lambley in Araluen than the town centre booth result, but this part of the electorate was not served by her previously.

8.01pm. One bit of bright news for the CLP is that Francis Xavier Kurrupuwa has won the Wurrumiyanga booth in Arafura with 388 of 709 votes. Don’t know if that’s a particularly good area for him.

8pm. The cross bench is likely to account for Nelson, Goyder, Araluen and Karama, that we know of so far. So my best guess of the final result is four or five each for the CLP and independents, and Labor on 15 or 16.

7.58pm. So where might the CLP hold? Probably in Katherine. Possibly in Namatjira and Spillett, but too early to say. No numbers yet from Port Darwin or Daly, but they will presumably have their work cut out there. No numbers yet from Adam Giles’ Alice Springs seat of Braitling, but that will be interesting to see.

7.56pm. Labor has won big in a second of the three booths from Sanderson, confirming a big win for them there.

7.55pm. All three fixed booths from Katherine now in – Westra van Holthe leads Labor 36.0% to 31.2% and will probably win, but preferences will decide the result.

7.53pm. A third booth from Drysdale follows the broader pattern, with Labor a bit over 40% and the CLP in the mid-thirties. So a very likely Labor gain.

7.52pm. Gerry Wood gets 63.1% from Howards Springs booth in Nelson.

7.51pm. Tennant Creek booth in from Barkly. Elliot McAdam clearing the first hurdle by outpolling CLP, but with Labor on 41.9%, will need a strong flow of preferences.

7.49pm. Terry Mills and Labor almost level at Woodroffe booth in Blain with about 36% to 37%, the CLP a distant third, Mills set to win on preferences.

7.48pm. A second Arnhem booth is similar to the first, with Labor well over 50% on the primary vote and independent member Larisa Lee hardly registering. Make that a fourth seat to add to Labor’s base of six, leaving three to go for a majority.

7.46pm. Kezia Purick safe in Goyder, getting 54.5% at the Bees Creek booth.

7.45pm. The CLP down nearly 20% from two booths in Brennan, Labor up a little more than 10%. Suggests a close result in a seat with a 14.0% CLP margin.

7.42pm. Labor gets 116 out of 163 votes at the Jabiru booth, which has been transferred from Arafura to Arnhem. Independent member Larisa Lee got a mere six votes, though she will presumably do better in the old parts of the electorate.

7.40pm. Nigel Scullion on ABC TV suggests the CLP is likely to lose Stuart. So to add to a base of six safe seats, I’ve got them winning Stuart, Arnhem and Drysdale.

7.39pm. Labor gains the Darwin seat of Sanderson from the CLP — Wagaman booth swings about 15%.

7.38pm. Delia Lawrie looking good in Karama, winning the Karama booth with 36.3% to the CLP’s 33.4% and Labor’s 19.4%.

7.35pm. A second booth from the Palmerston seat of Drysdale, Driver, swings 18% to Labor, who look like they’ve taken the 11.5% margin seat, which is being vacated for the CLP by Lia Finocchiaro’s move to Spillett.

7.34pm. Town centre booth from Araluen looks good for Robyn Lambley — 34.5% primary vote versus 37.2% for the CLP with the rest to Labor, suggesting she will win on Labor preferences.

7.32pm. Huge primary votes swings against Westra van Holthe from two Katherine booths, but he’s still ahead of Labor. Minor party vote big but scattered.

7.30pm. A result with 195 votes for Spillett from Ludmilla, which is actually in Fong Lim, records little change on the 2012 result, which presumably bodes well for the CLP there.

7.25pm. Good start for the CLP’s Heidi Williams in Namatjira – 181 votes at Yirara versus 102 for Labor’s Chansey Paech, with other candidates not featuring.

7.25pm. CLP down 19.6% in Moulden booth in Drysdale, but Labor only up 3.8%. Labor ahead though, in a seat with an 11.5% CLP margin.

7.17pm. The first result in is a mobile booth in Barkly, where Labor’s Gerry McCarthy faces a challenge from former Labor MP turned independent Elliott McAdam. But the booth, with 124 formal votes, has been won by another independent, Jack Green.

6.30pm. Polls closed half an hour ago, and first results should be along very shortly. The ABC’s results are here, the NTEC’s are here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

219 comments on “Northern Territory election live”

  1. Whatever happened to that guy who predicted the CLP was going to be returned even after the Don Dale scandal as “a lot of people know at least one of the crims and think they are where they need to be”? This result makes it pretty clear that torturing children is no way to win an election.

  2. The CLP must be thanking their lucky stars they endorsed Finocchiaro over Tollner for Spillett right about now. If they hadn’t, and if Higgins loses, they’d have been locked out of the Assembly entirely.

  3. The preference flow in Braitling is hilarious. Currently running at 60% to the ALP, and Adam Giles is coming a distant third to a candidate named “Exhausted”.

  4. Highlights of the day’s count:
    – There is now a 2CP count in Blain which has Terry Mills leading Damian Hale 1548-1447.
    – There is also a 2CP count now in Nhulunbuy, where independent Yingiya Mark Guyula leads Labor’s Lynne Walker by 35.
    – Absent votes have reduced Labor’s lead over Adam Giles in Braitling from 21 to 11.
    – Labor’s Ngaree Jane Ah Kit has done very well on absents in Karama and now leads Delia Lawrie by 33.
    – Little change after absents in Katherine, where Labor leads Willem Westra van Holthe by 41.
    Labor now leads in 18 seats (narrowly in three), the CLP in two and independents in five (narrowly in two).

  5. The first of many, many Gunner puns in The NT News
    https://twitter.com/HayleySorensen/status/770047576309628931

    Gunner’s artillery: the new faces behind Labor’s landslide in the Northern Territory
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/29/gunners-artillery-the-new-faces-behind-labors-landslide-in-the-northern-territory

    Adam Giles lashes predecessor who threatens to block dumped chief minister’s federal tilt
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/adam-giles-lashes-predecessor-who-threatens-to-block-dumped-chief-ministers-federal-tilt-20160829-gr3dmf.html

    Making sense of the polls: Labor crushes the CLP in the NT election.
    https://theconversation.com/labor-easily-wins-nt-election-64521

  6. – There is now a 2CP count in Blain which has Terry Mills leading Damian Hale 1548-1447.

    GOOD

    – There is also a 2CP count now in Nhulunbuy, where independent Yingiya Mark Guyula leads Labor’s Lynne Walker by 35.

    That’s OK too.

    – Absent votes have reduced Labor’s lead over Adam Giles in Braitling from 21 to 11.

    Good. ALP seat now, or ALP seat after by-election, or Giles in parliament.

    – Labor’s Ngaree Jane Ah Kit has done very well on absents in Karama and now leads Delia Lawrie by 33.

    Please not Delia.

    – Little change after absents in Katherine, where Labor leads Willem Westra van Holthe by 41.

    All good really.

  7. If there’s more ex-CLP indies than actual CLP members, Mills would have a fair argument to become opposition leader. He’s’ done it before (unsuccessfully, then successfully), and Finocchiaro and Higgins have only been in parliament for one term. At the very least he’d have to be a shadow minister for something. No way does a two-member opposition make sense.

    Also, it could split down gender lines. Of the five CLP-ish MPs, three are women. Finocchiaro could lead a group including Purick and Lambley. Burn the boys club to the ground.

    Fun fact: there’ll be only three (at most) MPs who were elected before 2008: Gerry Wood (2001), Delia Lawrie (2001) and Mills (1999). They sure do turn ’em over up there.

  8. I have wondered if we might see a zombie reanimation of the CLP with the ex-CLP MPs returning to the fold assuming that Giles loses or departs. Maybe the CLP brand is now so trashed that it is just not worth it for them and better to remain as indies.

    It’s not all roses for Labor as on current figures they are losing two seats they won at the last election, so the result is more a total rejection of the CLP than a positive embracing of the alternative.

  9. “the result is more a total rejection of the CLP than a positive embracing of the alternative.”

    I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.

  10. After looking at the lunchtime updates from NTEC, it looks like it’s 18 ALP, 2 CLP and 4 independents, with 1 undecided, Nhulunbuy, where the independent Guyula now holds a 22 vote lead over the ALP’s Walker. The reason this still looks doubtful is because postals have been breaking strongly to Walker – 35-9 on a 2PP basis so far – but what is unclear is how many votes remain to be counted. Another 30-35 postals, and not much else, would probably see Walker squeak in.

    It will be very interesting to see how the Opposition lines up in these circumstances. Viewed from a non-NT perspective, you would expect ex-CLP independents such as Purick and Mills to join with the 2 CLP members to form an Opposition of sorts, even if only for the duration of the next Parliament (perhaps even with Mills or Purick as Opposition Leader). NT insiders might be able to shed light on the likelihood of such an event occurring!

  11. The Nhulunbuy result is significantly driven by a change in demographics, with an almost halving of the mostly non-Indigenous Nhulunbuy population.

  12. Of the seats recounted yesterday Blain looks like a clear win for Indie/ex CLP Mills over the Labor candidate, Damian Hale. Karama looks a clear win for Labor’s Ah Kit over Indie/exALP Delia Lawrie. Braitling still looks good for the ALP and in Nhulunbuy it remains way too close to call.

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