Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. User Actions
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    Real leadership..

    Wade Noonan
    ‏@wadenoonan
    “Victorians have made it clear that they don’t support fracking. Today we are banning it permanently #springst”

  2. Socrates,

    Thanks for that link.

    The Libs cannot help themselves.

    Unless Turnbull and Morrison are prepared to split the Omnibus legislation labor now has the legitimate option of not supporting it through Parliament given its content.

    It appears to me the government is hoping for just that so they can bash Shorten some more.

    It will not work of course and once again the Tories are blinded by the constant necessity to play political games.

    So unless Turnbull comes to the table and splits the bill Shorten and labor have been handed a big get out of jail card in my humble opinion.

    Have a great day.

    Cheers.

  3. Re. the ‘battleplan’, what about the ‘sensible centre’ and ‘reaching across the aisle ‘.
    I guess that is ancient history, what being a whole 3 days ago.
    I hope Turnbull is picked up on this.
    Also with Labor only seeing the legislation last night, I think the Coalition party room had to vote on it.
    Still no excuse for Labor not to be given time to look at it.

  5. warrenpeace @ #13 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 1:07 am

    No doubt those nitwits that thought that after the election Turbull would emerge like Gandalf the white and lead Australia to great things, are becoming disillusioned, all they got was Gollum.

    I would have thought Turnbull was Sauruman.
    Once, by many, thought to be great, but ultimately discovered to be a vessel for others and shown to have become quite pathetic.

  6. The late notice to Labor might be more about stopping the Lib Party room pulling apart the proposed Budget cuts.

  7. The Age editorial hits nail on head re the Plebiscite, which makes me angry again recalling the pathetic Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore on the Project last night.

  8. I see today Newscorp is running with another leak from ALP rats in the revenge campaign to tear down the Andrews Govt.

    What is the point of the ALP, as a Govt proposition, if they tear down their own Govt’s?

  9. The Newspoll PPM numbers are extraordinary given the performance of the Govt.

    Bill Shorten has never had the people and never will.

  11. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-to-ban-fracking-20160829-gr44li.html

    A permanent ban on fracking and all related exploration and development of unconventional gas will be introduced across Victoria.

    The state government said it will introduce the ban later this year, to protect the state’s valuable farming sector.

    “Our farmers produce some of the world’s cleanest and freshest food. We won’t put that at risk with fracking,” Premier Daniel Andrews said…

    Meanwhile good Govt continues in Victoria.

  12. Primrose Riordan
    2h2 hours ago
    Primrose Riordan ‏@primroseriordan
    Burke says Labor will block Coalition MPs from getting pairs when they “want to go off to make a speech somewhere” or campaign #abc #auspol

  13. zoomster @ #31 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 7:39 am

    Mundine told a little story last night, the implications of which seemed to go right over people’s heads (including Mundine).
    He says he stopped an Aboriginal boy in the street and asked him why he wasn’t at school.
    They then worked through the usual arguments, culminating in the kid gesturing at the nearby shops and asking how many Aboriginal people were working there.
    Mundine interpreted this as a lack of role models – the kid had no examples of people like himself working, therefore he didn’t see himself as capable of working – and apparently missed the ‘they don’t employ people like me, so what’s the point?” interpretation.
    Of course, one way casts it as a ‘black fellas problem’ – the other as a white fella one.

    I didn’t interpret his interpretation as being what you did. It seemed pretty clear to me in that moment he was implying racism and that the young person was too. It seemed to me he was saying the problem of people not being able to easily get jobs due to racism was exacerbated through lack of available jobs. This led him into trickle down ranting. This is where he has been deluded. He seems to really believe in the power of voodoo economics. The lack of role models seemed to me a compounding factor. Interesting how we saw it differently. You could be right but that’s not what I saw.

  15. Victoria

    The Age editorial hits nail on head re the Plebiscite, which makes me angry again recalling the pathetic Waleed Aly and Carrie Bickmore on the Project last night.

    Have always been a fan of Waleed but am revising my opinion. The holier-than-thou looks on the faces of Aly and Bickmore at the prospect of the plebiscite going down makes me think this pair are more about the status quo than actual analysis. I guess if you are earning as much as these two you don’t want to rock the boat. A bit like the talking heads in the ABC.

  17. Never be under the misapprehension that Tony Bourke will be a pushover for the Coalition. Or that Bill Shorten, despite his ‘Hale fellow, well met’ mien is a dupe for the tactics of this government. And the list goes on. Labor are now battle-hardened and up for the fight.

    Such a pity we have to wait until tomorrow for the first Question Time. : )

  21. Good Morning

    Love the welcome to country. Thanks Labor for making it part of the tradition of our parliament. It makes me proud to be Australian as we see real change in approach to the first people.

    After 200 years every time I see a welcoming ceremony I see change away from therejection and dispossession Australian people so roundly rejected with the referendum decision in 1967.

  24. c@t

    Re: Dan Andrews. The opposition, right wing media and sadly some within his own party want to bring him down. Sigh…….

  26. I aslo thought Mr Shorten was very dignified when talking with the Anglican pastor.

    It shows how thin skinned the bigots are that they object to their views being called out for what they are.

    Be in no doubt. The ones who are not bigots can and will be convinced of the need for equality. Just as they were convinced of the need for divorce.

    Equality must and does win. The fight never stops.

  28. workmanalice: Ray Hadley full going Scott Morrison over 27 sitting days between now and Christmas as an offence to the “hard working tax payers” #auspol

  29. workmanalice: Hadley to Morrison: you’re trying to convince battlers in Western Sydney that you’re working hard when you have a long Christmas break.

  32. BK..

    Thanx for the newspaper round-up ..fantastic job as usual 🙂

    ..got my grandson out of a YOUI insurance policy earlier this year ..thank DOG!!

  35. lizzie @ #66 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 9:15 am

    I don’t think I need to watch QandA. Just reading this probably sums up the good bits and I don’t need to see Mundine or Brandis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/aug/30/qa-panellist-attacks-myth-of-welfare-bludgers

    Brandis was not a guest. Mundine was and was the worst on the panel. There was some good discussion. I am glad I watched even though Mundine put me to sleep. You could always watch and use you remote when the rants start.

  37. Vic,
    With Dan Andrews it looks like he is suffering from the JFK Syndrome. So good that people want to shoot him down. Not literally, thank goodness, and thank Howard for our gun laws.

  40. c@t

    Why do we need a discussion about ssm. Did we get a duscussion when John Howard amended the marriage act to be between a man and woman. Seriously what are these people afraid of. I just dont get how it impacts negatively on everyone else. It shits me to tears

  43. Victoria

    You have just summed up the average Australian voter position on SSM.

    Its why are we still doing this. It should have been done ages ago. Most just don’t get it and that includes a lot of people that voted for the LNP

  44. Guytaur

    Ain’t it wonderful how the Coal Party always have advice to Bill Shorten and Labor on what they should do. They are such know-alls (and liars). ROFL.

  47. I think we’ve already had a hint of this being declared ‘officially’. (No doubt Mal Roberts and the disbelievers will see this as further proof of the conspiracy.)

    Humanity’s impact on the Earth is now so profound that a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene – needs to be declared, according to an official expert group who presented the recommendation to the International Geological Congress in Cape Town on Monday.

    The new epoch should begin about 1950, the experts said, and was likely to be defined by the radioactive elements dispersed across the planet by nuclear bomb tests, although an array of other signals, including plastic pollution, soot from power stations, concrete, and even the bones left by the global proliferation of the domestic chicken were now under consideration.

    The current epoch, the Holocene, is the 12,000 years of stable climate since the last ice age during which all human civilisation developed. But the striking acceleration since the mid-20th century of carbon dioxide emissions and sea level rise, the global mass extinction of species, and the transformation of land by deforestation and development mark the end of that slice of geological time, the experts argue. The Earth is so profoundly changed that the Holocene must give way to the Anthropocene.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/29/declare-anthropocene-epoch-experts-urge-geological-congress-human-impact-earth

  48. Its wonderful seeing the reality that despite the hot air Hanson will generate that this is a more progressive parliament than the 44th parliament.

    Before the right had Palmer as their key balance to get things through.

    Now they have Nick Xenophon.

    The Canberra Press Gallery is still reporting as if the power was the same as in the 44th parliament. They will soon adjust as the numbers show up the reality that this is indeed a more progressive parliament with less extremes acceptable as decided by voters

  50. The Liberals’ preferred wording for the SSM plebiscite:

    “Do you approve of same sex marriage and installing the Liberal party as the government in perpetuity?” Vote YES or NO.

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