Newspoll: 50-50

The first Newspoll since the election records a solid hit for Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but a milder one on voting intention.

The first Newspoll of the new term, courtesy of The Australian, records the Coalition on 41%, compared with 42.1% at the election; Labor on 36%, up from 34.7%; the Greens on 9%, down from 10.2%; and others on 14%. This pans out to a tie on two-party preferred, compared with an election result of 50.4-496 in favour of the Coalition. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down six points on the pre-election result to 34% and his disapproval is up three to 50%, while Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 36% and down one to 50%. Turnbull holds a 43-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 48-31 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1696.

Also note the latest posts below this one: a belated entry on a ReachTEL poll of New South Wales state voting intention conducted from the Fairfax papers last Thursday; my latest American presidential election poll tracker reading; and ongoing updates from the Northern Territory election count.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average finds both parties down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon unchanged on 10% and 4%, and Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 51-49. Also featured:

• Two fascinating questions on the standard of life in Australia find 45% believing it to be higher now than 50 years ago, but 34% believing the opposite. Forty-seven per cent expect life for the next generation to be worse, against only 24% for better.

• Support for same-sex marriage is recorded at 57%, with opposition at 28%. The poll also finds 81% of yes voters say they would definitely or probably vote, compared with 70% of no voters. Fifty-nine per cent support a national vote and 25% a decision by parliament. Forty-seven per cent said they would expect a referendum to pass, 24% that they expected it to fail, and 30% felt unsure.

• Forty-six per cent agree that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men”, while 40% believe such obstacles “largely gone”. The split is 31-53 among men and 60-27 among women.

• Twenty-one per cent think the government too tough on asylum seekers, down four since November, while 29% deem it soft and 31% about right, both unchanged. Forty-six per cent believe conditions for asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island to be poor, compared with 28% for good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,723 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  2. http://craigemersoneconomics.com/analysis/2016/8/30/the-four-ps-that-will-define-the-new-parliament

    It’s hard to escape the sinking feeling that the new parliament will be defined by four P’s: political posturing and policy paralysis.

    …The more Mr Turnbull tries to appease the masters of hyper-partisanship in the Coalition’s extreme right by pursuing their lunar agenda and by slagging off at Labor and progressives in the broader community, the less productive will be the 45th parliament and his own prime ministership.

    If the prime minister is to avoid that miserable fate, he needs first to get over the circumstances of the close election result. Scare campaigns are unethical, he protests. But Mr Turnbull’s real gripe is that his own scare campaign about “Labor’s housing tax” crashing house prices didn’t work while Labor’s campaign on Medicare privatisation did.

  9. Lizzie
    Q&A is worth watching for the pleasure of seeing and listening to Michael Marmot. The other panelists spoke well, apart from the BS from Mr Mundial. The ACOS lady was passionate but Mr. Marmot should be made our all powerful president for a day to enact proper policies with continual protection via law. See what you think. 🙂

  11. On QandA last night

    For the average person it was an eye opener as the neo liberal rhetoric got trashed.

    Old news to most that have been following the economic debates on policy but remember most voters have not been able to due to MSM promoting the neo liberal line.

    Its why Morrison can delude himself that he can get away with repeating the lifters leaners taxed and taxed nots slogans

  14. Guytaur,
    It seems like Ray Hadley was calling Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull a couple of A Grade ‘Leaners’ themselves today!

  15. From the Guardian Blog regarding Bernardi and 18C.

    Cory’s army is now up to 20 senators

    Katharine Murphy Katharine Murphy
    Morning everyone, sorry to burst in. How great is it to have Politics Live back? To some breaking news. For the last week or so, I’ve been watching developments inside the Coalition on the Racial Discrimination Act closely. In a story I published last night, I noted the Liberal senator Cory Bernardi had been seen stalking the corridors yesterday collecting signatures for his private member’s bill, which aims to remove the words “insult” and “offend” from the RDA.
    His effort seems to be progressing well. The bush mail inside the Coalition informs me he’s signed up every backbencher in the upper house in the Liberal and National parties with the exception of Jane Hume, a new Liberal from Victoria. The bill now could have support from as many as 20 senators, if we throw in the crossbench. That’s obviously a sizeable minority of senators, a minority that will be pretty hard for the prime minister to ignore, which is presumably why Malcolm Turnbull has recently switched his line from no, we are not overhauling the RDA, to we are not overhauling the RDA “yet.” Bernardi won’t confirm he has 20 but he’s told me he’s “heartened by the level of support I’ve received”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/aug/30/parliament-returns-with-plebiscite-18c-and-budget-cuts-on-agenda-politics-live?page=with:block-57c4c513e4b0396caaf9a01f#liveblog-navigation

  17. Catmomma

    Yeah 🙂 If Hadley going off I can only imagine what Jones is going to say 🙂

    Lizzie

    Thats why they pull Uhlmann in. Can’t have the audience going to sleep. Not sure it works though.

  25. So I did the sums again. You’re welcome:
    Date Turnbull overtakes the following for time served as PM:
    Abbott – 12/9/2017
    Rudd 1 – 7/4/2018
    Rudd both – 29/6/2018
    Gillard – 19/9/2018
    Keating – 7/12/2019
    Hawke – 26/4/2024
    Howard – 9/6/2027
    Menzies – 26/2/2034

  27. I was feeling a bit baffled why opinion writers in the MSM seem so dead keen on having the plebiscite. But of course it would stir up endless outrage and comments and clicks, as the MSM would magnify every offensive opinion no matter how minor the source. Another bloody good reason to knock it on the head.

  29. Guytaur and to whom it may …….
    When Mr. Morrison, Brandis or assorted BS artists make a guest appearance on TV use of TV mute or off button is essential. Perhaps their clever plan is to bore the population into submission. I think Labor in Parliament should continue with treating the LNP as the clowns and time serving buffoons they are. Patient explanations to jounalist is probably necessary as well. Hawke was, I thought, excellent with this and an occasional “damn your impertinence ” thrown in for good measure should suit most occasions.
    Gardening time. E&OE

  36. Don

    Joe Biden would have ME done. He would have an increased minimum wage. He would have more funding for Medicare and likely to include dental.

    🙂

  37. Guytaur
    Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:26 am
    RD

    The same mob that hated the carbon price really hates the fracking ban

    Bill Shortens AWU are a dominant force in the ALP right.

  40. nicole @ #108 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:08 am

    I am catching up on 4 Corners now on ABC. I hope it is a good show.

    Could have been, but Nah!

    Many people have pointed out that the only reason the ABC is at all interested in the subject is that they have Season 2 of “The Code” starting this week. So it’s essentially an hour long commercial.

  41. ‘I was feeling a bit baffled why opinion writers in the MSM seem so dead keen on having the plebiscite. But of course it would stir up endless outrage and comments and clicks, as the MSM would magnify every offensive opinion no matter how minor the source. Another bloody good reason to knock it on the head.’

    Exactly! Conflict promoters the lot of them.

    KayJay, you have outdone yourself this morning. Very fetching…

  44. I have seen a tweet to effect that video feed from Fed Parliament House is a big improvement.

    I wil check it out later but sounding good

  49. adrian
    #141 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:47 am
    I am still trying to look attractive to the younger woman of, say, 80 years. Sadly most seem to far too alert and and smart for me. Never mind. We have our pleasures, why else would we have the current lot in the centre ring “at the circus” (burning Marx Brox discs at the moment).

  50. player one @ #140 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:47 am

    nicole @ #108 Tuesday, August 30, 2016 at 10:08 am

    I am catching up on 4 Corners now on ABC. I hope it is a good show.

    Could have been, but Nah!
    Many people have pointed out that the only reason the ABC is at all interested in the subject is that they have Season 2 of “The Code” starting this week. So it’s essentially an hour long commercial.

    Yes, it just finished. I think you are right, an advert. Nothing much outside of what I was already aware of. Hopefully some who watched might be a little less complacent now though.

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