Another electorate polling round-up

A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls provide much better news for Labor, while insider accounts of the state of play feature reams of seats that could go either way.

The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:

Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.

Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.

Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.

Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.

Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.

Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.

Elsewhere:

• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.

• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.

• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 comments on “Another electorate polling round-up”

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  2. This was on the BBC website:

    Swimmers at the Familiensport und FKK Bund Waldteichfreunde Moritzburg club (near Dresden) were told that the building of a refugee shelter across the lake where they have been swimming naked for more than 100 years, meant that they would now have to don bathing suits.

    Do changes like this encourage antagonism to “open borders”?

  3. [I hate to say this …. the last week could see a swing back to the Coalition].
    I suspect you are right, but I am hoping there was a slight swing away from them this week. Next poll will be interesting.

  5. Mercury (just now)
    ‏@themercurycomau
    There will be big upsets in several Tasmanian seats according to exclusive ReachTEL polling. Get the lowdown in tomorrow’s Mercury.

  6. jimmydoyle @ #2036 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:31 pm

    Briefly – the Eurozone is explicitly neoliberal – admission requirements included privatisation of public assets, banning deficit-spending (even in economic downturns), and tax cuts for the wealthy and big business etc. The EU is a failing project run by remote elites who don’t listen to the needs of regular people.

    It’s neo-Imperialist in monetary, trade and customs senses. Deficit spending is not banned but was intended to be limited. It is elitist, but this alone does not make it liberal. Imperialism is also characteristically elitist, even aristocratic.

    The point about Imperialist systems is they operate as customs unions with respect to external economies and free-trade zones internally, creating advantages of scale and price that allow them become permanent net exporters, in turn requiring their trading partners to purchase their currency (formerly gold, now Euro). This system drives internal accumulation, intra-zone industrialisation and economic elaboration, and sponsors the transfer of savings (lending) to non-Imperial, debtor zones. It draws real resources into the centre and generates indebtedness abroad.

    A liberal regime drives in the opposite direction. It disperses production and consumption into less-developed domains and attracts foreign savings into its financial system. The US and UK..and Australia, Canada…are characteristically liberal. The EU is in every sense the inverse of this system. They co-exist. But they are different.

  8. sohar @ #2055 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:43 pm

    Mercury (just now)
    ‏@themercurycomau
    There will be big upsets in several Tasmanian seats according to exclusive ReachTEL polling. Get the lowdown in tomorrow’s Mercury.

    If so, perhaps this will lend weight to my rejectionist/anti-incumbency voting intention thesis…we will soon see…..

  9. There is a large divide in the UK, north – south, the have and the have-nots.
    Right or wrong, that’s what the majority of rural northerners think and have done since before WW2. Our UK relations are very happy to wake up to the exit news.

  11. I think BREXIT will cost Cameron his Job and give the Fibs something to whinge about over the weekend in ‘pressers’ no one that matters will be watching and parroted in newspapers only the Liberal faithful will bother to read and digest whole. By Monday it will come back to one choice: “jobs and growth” or “health,education and childcare” – choose. keep it simple stupid KISS works with disengaged or disappointed electorate.

  12. Yes, Breifly. ‘Upsets’ can hardly be a positive for the Libs. Explains why Malcolm looked so glum in Tassie today.

  13. Briefly – interesting point. As you say, manufacturing has not left Europe, but has been protected in Germany by the Euro but has been devastated in France and the UK, while the eastern EU countries have seen big growth in EU-subsidised manufacturing.

  14. [After all, underlying Brexit is a deep and thorough xenophobia, racism and sectarian hatred.]
    As above I don’t agree, those bad things are the visible result of the underlying (inequality) problem.

  15. Someone on ABC 24, “the uncertainty gives makes every reason to become irrational” ie the rational response is to be irrational, LOL.

  19. Sales has Turnbull on tonight to discuss events in Britain. After last nights appalling effort from her, I imagine only the most hardcore tories will be watching. I think she damaged herself beyond repair last night.

  20. Son-in-law when I told him Britain were out of Europe:

    “Bloody Poms ..hopeless at soccer..”

    ..true story 🙂

  22. If anyone is in front of a tv and interested, turn on ABC 24. Cameron should be on to make his statement within ten minutes.

  23. Simon Katich
    “If by ‘most aussies wont pay attention’ you mean ‘Rugby League supporters are incapable of concentrating on anything more complicated that a 1D boring sport’ then, sure, I completely agree with you.”

    The mere mention of Rugby League seems to release the insecurities of some that result in insults like this.

    My children and I will take a break from campaigning for a Labor win by enjoying the game tonight, while you can remain in your ivory tower.

  25. WWP @4:34PM: I think that you have got someting there. We’re told that the economy has been growing continuously for 25 years, with a long term average of around 3% per annum. Taking account of population growth, let’s say a rate per capita of around 1.5%, or roughly 15% in a decade.

    But where has this ‘growth’ gone? Is the average Australian about 15% better off than they were around 2006? No. The rich are richer, the profit share of the economy is greater, bank profits keep going up and up. But you people can’t buy homes that is if they can find a job.

    In any case, the economy has to ‘grow’ by 3% p.a. to keep unemployment from rising. And were the economy to suddenly contract by, say, 10%, on paper maybe we could say that means that we go back to being as well off as we were (per capita) in about 2009, but of course it doesn’t. It would be an seen as a disaster.

    We have to keep running to stay still. I suspect that what we call ‘growth’ is someting else entirely.

  30. ‘CTar1
    Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:50 pm

    Bw

    The German plan A ?

    Over run France again except this time financially?’

    Plan A Conquer Europe and hang on to it.
    Plan B Conquer Europe financially.

  31. Large swathes of german manufacturing have migrated to China. But the german drive to efficiency and innovation and agility…

  32. jimmydoyle @ #2063 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:47 pm

    Briefly – interesting point. As you say, manufacturing has not left Europe, but has been protected in Germany by the Euro but has been devastated in France and the UK, while the eastern EU countries have seen big growth in EU-subsidised manufacturing.

    French and Italian capital has been dis-investing in their national zones and re-investing in the central European zones and in the UK for many years, so the locus of industrial production has been changing. It’s possible to say that Italian industrialisation, for example, may never have occurred had the current monetary and customs order prevailed during the 19th century. We should now expect the re-industrialisation of the UK to reverse and for its industrial capacity to shift back to France, Spain, the zones connected by the Rhine…to Czech, to Slovenia and Slovakia, to the Baltic states….

  34. 🙁

    William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

    THE SECOND COMING

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Surely some revelation is at hand;
    Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
    Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
    A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
    Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

    The darkness drops again but now I know
    That twenty centuries of stony sleep
    Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

    http://www.potw.org/archive/potw351.html

  37. The problem with the “it’s inequality, not xenophobia” argument is that Britain’s inequality has been caused by Cameron’s government, not the EU. The EU overwhelmingly funds poorer communities; the Tories austerity them.

    Dissatisfaction with inequality might go some way to explaining why voters ignored politicians, but if it was the major issue it is claimed to be, the Tories wouldn’t have romped back in less than 12 months ago.

  40. I am just a bit weary of hearing how so many issues were going to help the Coalition, and then don’t.

    I well remember how I felt during the 2007 campaign when Rudd’s strip club dalliance was splashed all over the media. The general perception was that it would cost him votes and possibly the election. In fact his popularity in the polls increased.

    Let’s see how this Brexit thing plays out before writing Labor off.

  41. Labor can speak about it’s recent economic achievements
    – achieving a AAA credit rating
    – weathering the GFC
    and point out that this is NOT the time to be providing a multi billion dollar tax benefit to banks and multinationals. It is a time for ordinary Australians to receive our primary support.

  42. darn @ #2090 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    I am just a bit weary of hearing how so many issues were going to help the Coalition, and then don’t.

    I well remember how I felt during the 2007 campaign when Rudd’s strip club dalliance was splashed all over the media. The general perception was that it would cost him votes and possibly the election. In fact his popularity in the polls increased.
    Let’s see how this Brexit thing plays out before writing Labor off.

    Labor have an excellent track record of managing economic challenges in the interests of working people. I hope they have enough time to sell this.

  44. Would it be great if Scotland left the UK and stayed in the EU. Germans and French could go to Scotland without a passport but the English would need one.

  45. Drewski

    Dissatisfaction with inequality might go some way to explaining why voters ignored politicians, but if it was the major issue it is claimed to be, the Tories wouldn’t have romped back in less than 12 months ago.

    But this time, some huge percent of the population cared enough to vote.

  46. Well the exchange rate has stopped falling it seems (I hope). It got as low as AU1.80, and is now back up to AU$1.85

  47. [Dissatisfaction with inequality might go some way to explaining why voters ignored politicians, but if it was the major issue it is claimed to be, the Tories wouldn’t have romped back in less than 12 months ago.]
    Yeah I thought the same thing, I think the gap is that embracing racism and hate is a pretty clear indication that you aren’t smart enough to rationalise the emotional ‘they have our jobs, they are filling up our schools, they are overrunning our towns’ to be essentially a dissatisfaction with the jobs available or the funding of the school, hospital etc.

    People voting against selfinterest don’t hate themselves necessarily, they have misdiagnosed their real problems, or being convinced of the wrong solution.

  48. Rogue Scholar,

    By Monday it will come back to one choice: “jobs and growth” or “health,education and childcare” – choose. keep it simple stupid KISS works with disengaged or disappointed electorate.

    I have been handing out HTVs this week and my experience has been that the electorate has been more engaged than I have seen for many a long year. Pre Polling is very popular. People are asking questions and seem to have informed themselves of the issues beforehand.

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