Another electorate polling round-up

A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls provide much better news for Labor, while insider accounts of the state of play feature reams of seats that could go either way.

The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:

Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.

Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.

Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.

Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.

Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.

Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.

Elsewhere:

• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.

• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.

• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 comments on “Another electorate polling round-up”

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  1. Already, the argument is being turned –

    Brexit: Blame David Cameron and the EU itself

    Brexit won’t be as bad as people think – it will hurt the EU more than it hurts the UK.

    …over the past eight years the EU engine has spluttered to the point of breaking down. Consumed with their goal of creating an “ever-closer” union with greater power concentrated in Brussels, Europe’s elites have lost sight of the wishes of ordinary people living in nation states. The EU’s inability to cope with the eurozone debt meltdown and immigration crisis is the root cause of populist uprisings in Spain, France, Greece and, of course, Britain. Tired of a decade-long recession, German-led austerity, and the mistake of the euro, Europe’s citizens yearn for greater sovereignty.

    …There are some xenophobes in the ranks of the Leave camp, to be sure, but most recognise the EU for what it is: a decaying, unrepresentative institution.

    …But Brexit won’t be as bad as people think. It will certainly hurt the EU more than it hurts the UK.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/blame-cameron-and-the-eu-itself-20160624-gpr3ol#ixzz4CTU9jHWu

  2. Brexit will have SFA impact on the election IMO. So Australia’s eighth largest export market contracts a bit. Big whoop.

  4. VICTORIA – Dave is going to retreat into his study with his golden retriever and trusty Webley revolver, after telling the butler to hold all calls.

  6. If, as some have speculated here, an immediate effect of the Brexit vote is to drop the value of many Australians’ super balances, it will be interesting to see if that motivates them to vote against the changes to super in the budget, including the lifetime limits on non-concessional contributions and on super balances.

  7. By the way, for those who put faith in the betting markets as a leading indicator of our election outcomes, the Brexit vote has killed that idea.

  8. “Why do you think Brexit should be celebrated?…just curious to knwo….””
    Well the people of Bradford are becoming somewhat upset by the huge number of Mosques in their era?.

  10. JimmyDoyle, I agree but losing Cameron, and, some are saying Osbourne is gone as well, would not give markets any confidence. A new PM coming in straight away might struggle and if it is Boris Johnson it could be a disaster.

  12. Could Ireland unite? Some are already calling for it.
    Very likely as NI voted to stay in the EU, Cameron’s short termism will have destroyed the Union

  13. compact crank @ #1938 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 3:37 pm

    Briefly – it gives them control of their borders back. It removes them from the stupidity of European Human Rights rulings stopping them deporting terrorists and their sympathisers.
    The economic chicken littles will be proven wrong. The U.K. And Europe will continue to be close trading nations.

    So they have voted from fear against prosperity. This really is the triumph of irrationality.

    You’re quite wrong to imagine the EU will be any more hospitable to the UK than they are to any other extra-Union economy. Australia and Canada, for example, are able to export remarkably little to the EU. Japan and Korea participate in the EU by investing and producing within the EU rather than by shipping to it. The domains of Latin America and Africa are also disadvantaged. The UK will rank alongside them for customs purposes. The EU order is imperialist. The UK will stand outside that order rather than within it and their trade in manufactures and services will doubtless suffer from the loss of markets, loss of scale, loss of connection, loss of legal standing. There was a compelling case for entry into the EU. This case has not been weakened but has strengthened in the decades since they entered.

    Still, when we view this vote as a proclamation against the corruption, deceptions, decadence and arrogance of the incumbent order, then it makes very good sense.

  14. Edi_Mahin – don’t underestimate Boris Johnson – he may come across as a Trump-esque buffoon, but he is whip-smart and enormously ambitious.

  15. For all the heat & fury and exultation i suspect no one has any idea how this will really play out over the next decade or so. Certainly not the politicians and probably not many economists either.

  16. All Ords close dow 3.1% on the day but only down 1.1% for the week.

    Down 5% financial YTD.

    Just need see if the markets do a multi day/ week tanty or move on.

  17. Pithicus
    Fair position for you to take.

    I am just a bit weary of hearing how so many issues were going to help the Coalition, and then don’t.

  18. victoria @ #1992 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    I know the focus is in brexit, but does anyone know about this?
    Tom McIlroy
    7h7 hours ago
    Tom McIlroy ‏@TomMcIlroy
    Liberal Helen Kroger agrees the government wants to privatise Medicare payments – “no question it needs to be organised more efficiently”

    She said it on Jon Faine’s program this morning when Faine was broadcasting from DAndenong Market and had a few politicians there.
    What a dunce! She is their candidate in Bruce.

  20. jimmydoyle @ #1970 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 3:59 pm

    Another article from a few days ago:
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/banks-likely-to-move-some-operations-from-london-after-brexit-a-1098633.html
    Don’t get me wrong, I think leaving the EU could be good in the long-run – it is an un-democratic and neoliberal organisation. But the UK can’t pretend there won’t be repercussions in the short-term.

    The EU is not neo-liberal. It is neo-imperialist. The neo-libs are in the UK.

  21. Someone’s got to challenge Asbestos Lady and Malcolm that Labor has been “caught out lying” on Medicare. Bullshit from the most egregious of liars. Is Liberal, is lies.

  22. [Pithicus
    Friday, June 24, 2016 at 4:15 pm
    Lindsay Ross
    It’s not Brexit that will spook the electorate, it’s the financial markets going spacko.]

    It’s important to note that any turbulence in the financial markets prior to the election occurs on Turnbull’s watch. Labor at present is merely an onlooker.

  24. [UK Exporters just got a massive competitive boost.]
    Yep. And those brits on low incomes now have to pay more for everything they buy that originates from everywhere but the UK.

    Tomorrows exchange rates and markets will be the most interesting. Bounce or further falls?

  25. Interesting one of the chief reasons is disintegration of National Health … isn’t that what Malcolm wants here?

  26. My question is this: now that the UK has vote to leave the EU, will they still be allowed to come last in Eurovision?

  27. Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.

    Yeah, me too.

    And on that other matter, it’s only financial types in Sydney that worry about bullshit credit ratings and what club the UK belongs to. There will be change, but that is a fact of life anyway. The world will get over it.

  34. CC

    Scotland had their Referendum already and won’t get another chance anytime soon.

    I don’t see how this could be stopped. Brexit is a major game changer.

  35. “Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.”

    Yeah I think so too.

  36. Briefly – the Eurozone is explicitly neoliberal – admission requirements included privatisation of public assets, banning deficit-spending (even in economic downturns), and tax cuts for the wealthy and big business etc. The EU is a failing project run by remote elites who don’t listen to the needs of regular people.

  38. [Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.”]
    If by ‘most aussies wont pay attention’ you mean ‘Rugby League supporters are incapable of concentrating on anything more complicated that a 1D boring sport’ then, sure, I completely agree with you.

  39. [So they have voted from fear against prosperity.]
    No they have voted against the broad prosperity because their share, once it trickled down, was not sufficient to allow them to feel at home and well treated in their own towns. Yes the almost certainly don’t realise that their racism, nationalism and anger all flow from their relative inequality, but that is what is going on.
    It is the failures of the last three decades to fairly share the economic dividends, that is driving the anger and all that flows from it. Although you wouldn’t expect a one nation or lnp voter to be smart enough to understand what was driving their racism, so equally you can expect them to vote rationally in their own best interest. How else would either Sanders or Trump have any support in the US.

  40. I suppose that Scotland could arrange another referendum on independence if they wanted to, but the UK Government could not be compelled to recognise any result it doesn’t like.

  41. Good!
    AFP news agency ‏@AFP 2h2 hours ago
    #BREAKING: Scotland ‘sees its future as part of the EU’: First Minister

  42. I hate to say this and I hope I am wrong, but I sense that the last week could see a swing back to the Coalition. (Its happened often in the past)

  43. “Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.”

    As someone said earlier, that will probably be true unless the financial markets tank.

  46. Texit would be interesting.
    Hispanics around 40% of the population. 50% of births are Hispanic and around 30% of births are Caucasian.
    If Texas did become a separate state it would rapidly switch from English to Spanish.
    Then the interesting question would be whether the Hispanics, a large proportion of whom are of Mexican descent, decide to throw the invading Caucasians out.
    After all, underlying Brexit is a deep and thorough xenophobia, racism and sectarian hatred.
    It would not be hard for Hispanic populists to drum up support for the Caucasians to exit Texas.
    It is not as if the long, vicious and sordid history of mistreatment of Hispanics in Texas is anything to write home about.

  48. “Netherlands leaving – Nexit
    Denmark leaving – Dexit
    Sweden leaving – Farage did not say.”
    Why couldn’t he say ‘Sexit’?

  49. CC [So when does the forecast WWIII start?]
    3rd War of Scottish Independence seems just around the corner… and in Farages words ‘without a shot being fired’.

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