BludgerTrack: 50.2-49.8 to Coalition

Six weeks on, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains stuck in neutral on two-party preferred.

Six weeks into the campaign, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is where it was at the start of the campaign, and has been at every point since – with nothing at all to separate the Coalition and Labor on two-party preferred. The only changes since a week ago have occurred at state level, where the Coalition is down two on the seat projection in New South Wales, but up one each in Queensland and Western Australia. The latest addition to the aggregate is your regular weekly Essential Research, which is unchanged on two-party preferred at 51-49 in favour of Labor. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 40%, while Labor, the Greens are the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4% respectively. Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament:


Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.2-49.8 to Coalition”

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  1. pedant @ #1348 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:29 am

    On the Medicare issue: the government seems to have put its faith in precise denials that Medicare will be “privatised”. But I suspect that for many voters, “privatise” is just a shorthand expression taken to mean “have the skids put under it”. For that reason, the denials won’t help much, because everyone knows that the Liberals, if they had their drothers, would like to see everyone on private health insurance. Catherine King found a great quote on that from Mr Turnbull: see

    Medicare is not just about Medicare. It is a reference point for every lie that voters have heard. It is also an excellent example of “political fighting – insult and spite” that voters recoil from. This issue has also forced voters to pay attention to the election. Health is the one thing that every household will mention as a make-or-break issue.

  2. steve777
    I completely agree about the ABC and media in general. I’ve met a few people working at the ABC and they say it is dire.

  3. Briefly @ 12.25: I am genuinely unsure who will win the election, or whether there will be a hung parliament. I’m hesitant to give much weight to perceptions of a “vibe” one way or another, unless it’s really clear that a government is very popular or very unpopular. That brings me back to the polls. I’m very conscious that there are 15.6 million voters out there, all making individual decisions, all on slightly different grounds, which we can never really know or document. Well-run polls come closest to giving insights into that, so I think they are the only really useful indicators. At the moment they are close, there seem to be quite a few undecided voters, so for mine it could go either way. Another imponderable factor is the large numbers of people voting pre-poll, who will have been subject to slightly different influences to those who make it through to polling day. Yet another imponderable factor is the seats-votes relationship, and the proposition that the swing will be concentrated away from the marginals where the ALP needs it to be. Personally, I’m a bit skeptical of that: it happens every so often, as in 1998, but more typically the predictions of the pendulum aren’t too bad.

    I do have a sense that the ALP campaign has been more focussed than the other side’s, and that they have more hot button issues going their way just now. But on that, I may be wrong.

    On another point, it always amuses me that on election day, commentators typically can’t tell you who is going to win or why the winners are going to win, but on the day after the election they can tell you why the winners won with complete confidence. And yet between one day and the next they will have gained very little additional information which explains why people voted as they did.

    Finally, I’ll be interested to see what posters the parties have at the polling places. Every so often you see one which you just know is going to win last minute votes: the John Howard “We will decide who comes here and the circumstances in which they come” in 2001 is perhaps the best example I can recall of that.

  4. One more thing I should have said is that I’m impressed by the way the foundations for the ALP’s campaign themes have been built up over a long period of time. To give but one example, the line being used about making multi-nationals pay their fair share of tax would have been just another slogan, had it not been for all the painstaking work that Sam Dastyari did in the Senate to expose their tax avoidance practices. So now it comes across not just as “old-fashioned ALP business bashing”, but as a response to a well-established problem. Ditto for financial malfeasance in the banking and financial advice areas. In contrast, the Liberals’ spadework to give salience to their key policies and themes simply hasn’t been done, with the business tax cut being perhaps the best example.

  5. I must say from afar, that it all seems to be pointing more towards a Labor win, albeit small majority, but that is the sense I get from the various Australian news web sites.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. An early edition today – I was having trouble sleeping.

    Massola writes off Shorten’s chance of a victory.
    Now Abbott says he’s “keen to serve”. Struggling with his mortgage payments?
    No. we don’t need a Royal Commission into banking do we?
    Mark Kenny writes about the SSM questions Turnbull must now answer.
    Michael Gordon says it’s lies at 20 paces because both sides think it’s perilously close.
    Will Mike Quigley’s detailed excoriation of the Coalition’s mess of the NBN provide the basis for the discussion we need to have? It certainly does require dispassionate examination.
    This is a piece that Quigley has written for The Conversation.
    Why voters are angry about Australia’s internet.
    More horrible revelations about the ADF at yesterday’s Royal Commission hearing.
    There are still fears that 7-Eleven workers will not get their compensation.

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Barnaby Joyce goes out of his tree at the NPC. Again!
    Baird is now attempting to significantly change the terms of employment for state public servants.
    Got problems with Medibank Private? Then don’t bother going to the Private Insurance Ombudsman.
    Peter Martin looks at who is Medicare’s best friend and concludes that it is certainly not the Coalition.
    This international law academic sings the government’s failures on human rights issues.
    Yet more trouble for Woolworths’ superb management team.
    Meanwhile Coles is testing “dark stores” that have no customers – just online warehousing and distibution.
    The boss of Target says he really means business. It will interesting to watch as things unfold over the next 12 months.
    Michelle Grattan on Labor now moving on to the privatisation of the vaccination register.
    This study confirms the dramatic effect that Howard’s gun laws have had on mass shootings in Australia.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Gareth Hutchens says that Morrison is losing the negative gearing modelling war.
    Moodys has examined Trumponomics and reaches a scary conclusion. It’s scary!
    Morrison is so out of touch with LGBTQI issues.
    Eight times Morrison heroically overcame bigotry.
    “View from the Street” does a good lob on Morrison.
    The Guardian tracked the response to Morrison’s comments.
    Cuts to legal services will cause deep community hurt. This is a real sleeper issue.
    The SMH editorial says that if Brexit wins then it will represent a victory for hatred.
    This report says that far right wing loners kill more than Islamic extremists.
    If this is only half true it represents a terrible customer relations handling by Ford.

  9. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir on Turnbull’s current position.

    David Pope gets to the core of the Coalition’s ideas about Medicare.

    David Rowe and some political group therapy.

  10. Good morning BK thanks for the update

    My favourite was this from the SMH —

    “Fairfax Media spoke to more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as LIberal and National party strategists – to put together a snapshot of key marginal seats across the country”.
    I can tell from personal experience that you DON’T tell the media jack chit about your campaign strategy or how you think things are REALLY going in the middle of an election campaign. Why give the enemy anything they can try to benefit from. It would be like telling a news reporter we are thinking of landing in Normandy to go after Hitler, but the weather might force us to land elsewhere. No Labor or Liberal person actively involved in an election campaign worth a sack of beans is going to do that. What you might do is ‘leak’ disinformation [false] for a range of reasons. I wouldn’t believe a word of anything the SMH has to say any more than I would The Age till AFTER the election.

  11. For all those doomsayers believing Labor can’t do it, just reflect for a moment on what Labor did do in the last NSW State election.

    We were up against a seemingly bullet proof, Teflon-coated, popular as ice cream Premier in Mike Baird AND Labor took back the Central Coast seats, except for the bluest of blue ribbon Liberal seats.

    So don’t give up hope and write Labor off yet! Voters aren’t brainwashed and stupid.

    OK, off to hand out HTVs. : )

  12. The SMH today claims that “Labor officials” believe the ALP is a realistic chance of claiming a total of eight to 10 seats –
    Eden-Monaro, Barton, Paterson and Dobell [NSW], Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson [QLD] Burt [WA],Hindmarsh [SA] and Lyons [TAS]

    13 seats are quoted as being “in play”
    Page-Macarthur-Robertson [NSW], Corangamite-La Trobe [VIC], Longman-Brisbane [QLD], Cowan-Hasluck [WA] Bass-Braddon [TAS] Solomon [NT] and Boothby [SA]

    8 are quoted as being “write-offs”.
    Macquarie, Lindsay, Reid, Banks, Forde, Petrie, Swan, Pearce

    Like I said in my last post this is bollocks information allegedly coming from “Labor officials”. No-one in their right mind, for example, is going to write off Petrie in QLD with a 2PP margin of 0.5 percent. And you don’t spill the beans of the reality you know during an election campaign to anyone.

  13. Listening to PBS broadcast on Brixt, a simplification of voters
    The older you are
    If you vote Conservative
    If you are less educated
    If you live out of London
    The more likely you vote to leave

    Good luck to them & Howard’s / Abbotts battlers here

  14. Labor is doing well.

    Thats a quote from Malcolm Farr when pressed by Marius Benson this morning. He then came up with all the excuses in the world like the voters are not engaged yet.

    This after voting has begun.

    This sounds familiar. Its a commentator looking for legitimate reasons not to accept the Reachtel results from NSW.

    I would respect this more with seat by seat polling if the polls were showing 50/50 with the LNP being the 51/49 when its not 50/50

    So while yes its too close to call all the momentum of change is with Labor and nothing I have heard from the commentators and LNP makes me think Labor is not doing well.

  15. Desperate Turnbull is trying to do a John Howard with the Victorian CFA.

    Victoria is not Tasmania and the CFA is not the CFMEU.

  16. DrCraigEmerson: “The boats are coming, $100 legs of lamb, Whyalla will be wiped out, shriek, shriek ⚡️” All irrefutable facts. Not a scare campaign

  17. Already Talkbull and ScoMo have done pressers screaming about ‘economic insecurity’ after the Brexit EXIT decision and the need for s “majority Coalition Government” to deal with “uncertain times blah blah—–

    I think he let a cat out of the bag there–they must be getting the message from HQ that a hung Parliament is more likely than not. LOL. Thanks for the heads up Talkbull.

  18. BREXIT will cost Cameron his Job and give the Fibs something to whinge about over the weekend in ‘pressers’ no one that matters will be watching and parroted in newspapers only the Liberal faithful will bother to read and digest whole. By Monday it will come back to one choice: “jobs and growth” or “health,education and childcare” – choose. keep it simple stupid KISS works with disengaged or disappointed electorate.

  19. scoutdog
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 4:20 pm
    Who is going to win the election and by how much?
    Before BREXIT I had it on Coalition 74 Labor 70 Others 6 as my guesstimate, now lets see how BREXIT plays out with the ‘undecided’ women and depressed economy regionals.

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