The Australian reports the latest Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland has Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, a result that appears to have been arrived at through a hypothetical preference flow under the newly readopted system of compulsory preferential voting. The poll was conducted April to June from a sample of 1451, and is the first Newspoll result since an October to December poll at the end of last year. On the primary vote, Labor is on 38% and the Liberal National Party is on 40%, compared with 41% and 39% in the previous Newspoll result, which was conducted from October to December. The new Opposition Leader, Tim Nicholls, opens his account with weak personal ratings of 31% approval and 36% disapproval, while Annastacia Palaszczuk is down six on approval to 44% and up seven on disapproval to 42%. Palaszczuk holds a 44-31 lead as preferred premier.
On the primary vote, Labor is on 38% and the Liberal National Party is on 40%, compared with 41% and 39% in the previous Newspoll result –
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I have been wondering about the State Govt in QLD and where it sits in terms of popularity and if the electorate have reasons to punish the Labor brand at this Federal election .. a 3 point drop in PV at a Statte level is not good albeit a small indicator on it’s own.
The ‘Fire Fighters’ issue is said to be hot in Victoria, council amalgamations in NSW and in WA the Liberal Govt is ‘on the nose’ so bad I can smell it here in Tasmania. But what about Palaszczuk ? Maybe PBers living in QLD can enlighten us ?
My bigger concern for Labor is that PUP drew 11 % of the PV in QLD last time. Ex PUP PV voters will significantly influence the outcome in Capricornia [7.9], Petrie [10.2], Bonner [7.8], Brisbane [4.1], Forde [12.4], Leichardt [8.5], Herbert [8.8], Dickson [9.7] and Longman [12.7].
Who will they vote for now ? We know from Antony Green that PUP preferences ran 46.3 % to Labor and 53.6 to the LNP in 2013. IF those numbers transfer into PVs 53-47 pro LNP, Labor’s task of winning more than 2 seats in QLD gets harder.
“I have been wondering about the State Govt in QLD and where it sits in terms of popularity and if the electorate have reasons to punish the Labor brand at this Federal election .. a 3 point drop in PV at a Statte level is not good albeit a small indicator on it’s own.”
Labor polled 38% on the primary vote at the last state election, so I’m not sure where you are suggesting the 3% drop is coming from considering there primary voting in this poll is 38%.
I don’t think you can take much out of these results in terms of federal impacts. The Beattie/Bligh governments had a huge seat majority’s from 2001-2009 and the best Labor federally could muster was 8 seats until the 2007 federal election.
Labor seems the natural party of government in Queensland state because of issues of (health/education), but the Liberals are natural party federally because of issues of (immigration/economic management).
As for Tim Nicholls and the LNP I really think they are struggling for relevance. They want to privatize the state assets but now with that off the table they are struggling to know where to go from here.
Just trialling leaving a comment.