Six weeks into the campaign, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is where it was at the start of the campaign, and has been at every point since – with nothing at all to separate the Coalition and Labor on two-party preferred. The only changes since a week ago have occurred at state level, where the Coalition is down two on the seat projection in New South Wales, but up one each in Queensland and Western Australia. The latest addition to the aggregate is your regular weekly Essential Research, which is unchanged on two-party preferred at 51-49 in favour of Labor. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 40%, while Labor, the Greens are the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4% respectively. Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament:
In from what Kevin?
I think people are realising that Labor are a decent bet at that price.
* Uhlmann,
*Jennett.
* Sales,
*Jones,
*Trioli (and berk who sits beside her on ABC Breakfast),
* Sabra Lane,
* Sarah Ferguson (yes, Sarah has to go because she’s too up herself),
* Ticki Fulllerton,
* Emma Alberici,
* Julia Baird,
* Annabel Crabbe,
* John Barron,
* Elanor Hall,
* Richard Glover (at least we’d be spared his boring self-referential monologues),
* Tony Delroy
* Robbie Buck (ABC sydney Breakfast radio),
* Fran Kelly,
* Barrie Cassidy,
* The “bloke” half of the Weekend ABC-24 talking heads,
*Clark Kent, alias Tom Iggledon,
* The latest MD,
* Brissenden
* (and how could I forget?) Macca.
It’s about time we had a BIG cleanout of the ABC.
Adrian,
Robbie Buck annoys you because he is a supercilious little twerp who is frightened of his own shadow, lives in the inner west, ride a bicycle to work, and loves Baird. That, and his scratchy voice plus the fact that he used to work for JJJ adds up to a smarmy ladder climber who’s outgrown his youthful days and now thinks it’s cool to be a hipster doing “Balanced” interviews of Liberals, swallowing every media meme imaginable (and he makes up all by himself).
Paul Edbrooke MP
1h1 hour ago
Paul Edbrooke MP @paul4frankston
Im calling it now #faketradie was lame but hiring a kids party fire truck company to campaign! #fakefirey
victoria @ #1300 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:23 pm
Interesting to see they are using the same black and gold colours as the unions use on their “Put the Liberals last” messaging.
AB @10:56PM: I wasn’t on PB in 2007 but I expect/suspect that the posters here aren’t a representative sample.
Re the ABC: I do not think that it is biased. Indivividual journalists have their own views, as expected. Some let those views come through more than they should. I don’t think there should be a purge of journalists should there be a change of Government. As for the Board and senior management, that’s a separate issue.
Mainly, I think that its journalistic standards at the ABC have fallen, like those of all of the mainstream media. More trivia, more parroting of press releases without question and less probing and investigation.
The ABC has also been thoroughly cowed by the Government. Anyone overly critical of the Government risks their jobs (and investigation and vilification by Newscrap). Abbott made it obvious, but things have changed since Abbott got the boot. After all, Brandis DH is still there. Maybe it is made known to staff with varying degrees of subtelty that if you step out of line “you’ll nerver work in this town again”. I don’t know, but we saw what happened to that Tech journalist who criticised the NBN. We’ve seen the attacks on the ABC last year after they had the temerity to report on the Indonesian spying scandal. Abbott thought that the ABC should act as the Government propaganda arm (like Newscorp). Abbott’s team are mostly still in place.
KB – saw some later replies, nvm.
Fwiw, my NSW Lib friends are almost sure than Gilmore is gone.
“In Uhlmann’s defence, his wife is a Labor MP, so perhaps he has to be seen to be leaning the other way.” The Toolman was exactly the same before his wife’s Labor pre-selection in 2010 – a right-wing goon.
*that*
… have NOT changed since Abbott got the boot.
Confessions @ 11.22pm: That makes it all the more amusing that it’s being widely speculated at the moment that the new Senate may be as divided and fractious as the old one. Which, incidentally, would make both the government and the opposition look silly: the government because they hoped for something different, the opposition because they predicted something different.
This is the twitterfeed of the Labor MP as posted above. There is a lot on the CFA matter and how the Liberals are astroturfing for the federal election.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paul4frankston
Night all
Handy hint for those having log in difficulties.
Log in from the Crikey home page.
I cannot log in at all form PB, but doing it from Crikey works first time ebery time. The stay logged in check box works as well.
You’re welcome.
I cannot log in at all from PB, but doing it from Crikey works first time, every time. The stay logged in check box works as well.
victoria @ #1298 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:22 pm
I get a 403 error on that. But I think I know what it is about.
Sorry one more link before I go. This is being fermented by the fiberals, murdoch press and the likes of Neil Mitchell and Tom Elliott on 3aw. All in aid of hurting Labor in the federal election. They should be ashamed of themselves. Disgusting.
The ugly CFA pay dispute has taken another violent twist after police were called to an altercation involving a firefighter at a newsagency in Melbourne’s north-east.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/cfa-crisis-firefighter-handed-a-bullet-shell-for-the-premier-20160622-gpozsi.html#ixzz4CJaDaY9a
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
“Dutton dressed as yam”
https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/733460747917758464
Thanks for that BB – just about sums Buck up, but I’d add smug git who interrupts his guests all the time.
Ulhmann was a candidate for some fringe far right religious group in the ACT legislative assembly before joining the ABC, so he has form.
“Bemused
I do not think you can really assume a 2007 result. Shorten is doing well, but he does not have the feel of the Rudd slide of 2007. While there is disappointment in Turnbull he is not hated.”
Fair comment. Kevin Rudd had factors of Workchoices, time for change (Howard was at the end of his fourth term), and his popularity that were quite significant advantages at that election. The only thing is Labor had six seats in Queensland that election and won an extra 10 for a total 16 seats. Lost eight of them in the 2010 federal election when Julia Gillard stood as PM.
tpof @ #1272 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:57 pm
I think Labor will make great gains. An election is decision-making. Voters cannot possibly decide to reward the LNP for their emptiness, their deceits, their utter weakness and incompetence. They will vote for change. They may not be 100% elated about it. But they still certainly hope for change. They will vote their hopes as well as their regrets.
Just read Massola’s weird counter-intuitive article. There’s no way either side would be campaigning the way they are if they thought Labor was only on track to gain 8 seats.
I am a bit surprised that the human headline hasn’t gotten on to the CFA astroturfing. There’d be a Walkley for any journo who could bust that story over the next few days. Reeks of Lib sponsored scandal.
victoria @ #1315 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:34 pm
victoria….voters are almost completely inured to such junk politics. They are most likely to simply discard it. For some, it will register as politics as usual and intensify their intention to vote for change. Voters mistrust the media almost more than they mistrust politicians.
Just watched 4 corners..Shows what a nasty bastard that Joyce is.
boerwar @ #982 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 7:39 pm
Excellent!
J341983: I would have thought it’s very much in the ALP’s interest at the moment for it to be widely believed that the coalition is still likely to win the election. Swinging voters whose instinct is to follow the faketradie and stick with the current mob for a while may be more easily persuaded to switch if they think it will give the government a kick in the backside without changing it. And for people who are really concerned about Medicare, it will give an additional urgency to the need they perceive to vote the government out (“we really need every vote; it’s a fight to the last ditch” etc.)
So whether the ALP people are really not expecting to win or whether they are just making convenient use of Mr Massola is anyone’s guess.
I hope that Shorten will be as good a Prime Minister as he has been as opposition leader. It is time we had a good one. All the signs are pretty positive IMO.
sprocket_ @ #986 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 7:40 pm
He never ever believed in anything worth having. He obviously no longer even believes in himself.
Or Massola is making things up, as he usually does.
Massive swings to the ALP in marginal seats
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes
Page NAT 46 (-7.1 from 2013) ALP 54 (+7.1)
Macquarie LIB 46 (-8.5 from 2013) ALP 54 (+8.5)
Lindsay LIB 46 (-7.0 from 2013) ALP 54 (+7.0)
Gilmore LIB 47 (-6.8 from 2013) ALP 53 (+6.8)
Eden Monaro LIB 45 (-7.9 from 2013) ALP 55 (+7.9)
Dobell LIB 47 (-2.8 from 2013) ALP 53 (+2.8)
pedant @ #1325 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:50 pm
Positive expectancy is important. When talking to voters who express an intention to vote Labor, I let them know we are working hard and expect to do well – that we think we can win and change the Government. The response is always affirming. Voters want to back the winning side. There is nothing much to be said for voting for the losing candidate. We want voters to know that a vote for Labor is a vote for success.
I don’t see the current situation as being in any way one of hubris. It is like that impenetrable wall of 50/50 with their sophomore advantages was holding for weeks and weeks. It is cracking now from the sheer weight of opposition. If we slack off we’ll lose. But the vibe is that more and more hands are piling in to help sustain the pressure. I’m less interested in predicting where it will end up than in how to maintain the pressure.
bobalot @ #1329 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:53 pm
Such swings will not merely be found in the marginals, where the LNP have been campaigning hard. Even larger swings will occur in safer seats, especially non-capital city seats.
The Abbott-Turnbull government is being rejected. They have nine days to turn that around.
Briefly @ 11.56pm: Could I just say that I’ve been reading your reporting back on your phone banking with great interest, and that it’s providing fascinating insights into what may well turn out to be a cutting edge campaigning technique in Australia.
norwester @ #1331 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 11:56 pm
I’ve seen an amazing flow of volunteers for Labor. They are often not Labor members. They are people who want to change the Government and have rolled up to help. They are willing to do all the hard things. There are young people from the unions – the MUA, AMWU, CFMEU, SDA, AWU, UV – and every other walk, including students, academics, retirees, ex-farmers, small businesspeople, teachers, nurses, miners…you name it. They seriously want to win. They have not volunteered just to feel good.
For those of you in Banks:
You can do a whois search yourself, for handsoffthecfa.com.au, the following link should work.
https://www.instra.com/en/whois/whois-result/handsoffthecfa_com_au
pedant @ #1334 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:05 am
Cheers, Pedant. I think inter-personal campaigning is brilliant. Every session is a learning exercise for me. It’s both personally fascinating and politically powerful. Door-knocking, of course, is the greater pleasure. I really recommend it to anyone interested in learning more about political culture and expression.
Briefly @ 12.10am: I haven’t been doorknocked, which surprises me a bit as I’m in Eden-Monaro and I saw some doorknockers from the ALP a few blocks away on Sunday. (It was a foul, cold, rainy day, I felt sorry for them, and had resolved to offer them a hot coffee if they turned up at my place.)
norwester @ #1333 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:03 am
Nine days is an eternity in an election campaign. But I think they’ve blown it. Turnbot is next to useless as a campaigner. They have no policies to fight with. They have disrupted their own campaign and spent the last two days campaigning for Labor. They face a very well-organised and capable opponent that is in the ascendant in the places that matter most – on the ground.
It’s just hard to believe there is some massive swing on as we see in the marginals above when the nationwide polling is 50/50 and NSW isn’t particularly going anywhere on the state tracker.
pedant @ #1339 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:12 am
It’s not too late. You could go door-knocking yourself for Labor every day between now and the election. Call the local campaign office…-:)
Briefly, do you have a sense of whether the coalition are attempting a person-to-person campaign similar to the one in which you are involved? Have you picked up any vibes of people who have already been contacted (by phone or in person) by the other side? It did occur to me some time back that with lots of Liberal rusted-ons still supportive of Mr Abbott rather than Mr Turnbull, they might face real challenges in mobilising their ground troops, or in getting them to say their spiels with conviction. Do you have a view on that?
teh_drewski @ #1341 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:13 am
MEDICARE
Briefly @ 12.15: I’m an observer rather than an activist, and a swinging voter, so I wouldn’t be much good in that role!
On Cowper, some people made a comment that Mr Oakeshott may have come into the contest too late. But if he wins, that will be seen as a masterstroke, in that his opponent may well have spent the last three years with a sense of false security in a supposedly safe seat. I’ve been struck by talk of some last minute pork-barrelling, but fattening a pig on market day isn’t easy.
pedant @ #1345 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:20 am
Oh, I think I suspected as much -:)
There is certainly a lot to observe. As a swinging voter, what do you make of the general situation?
On the Medicare issue: the government seems to have put its faith in precise denials that Medicare will be “privatised”. But I suspect that for many voters, “privatise” is just a shorthand expression taken to mean “have the skids put under it”. For that reason, the denials won’t help much, because everyone knows that the Liberals, if they had their drothers, would like to see everyone on private health insurance. Catherine King found a great quote on that from Mr Turnbull: see http://www.catherineking.com.au/media/turnbull-doubling-down-on-medicare-privatisation/
Pedant – I suspect that Oakeshott may just sneak in and take Cowper. Port Macquarie was his stronghold and Labor very nearly won the old Cowper in 2007, and Coffs Harbour would be fertile ground for Oakeshott.
pedant @ #1343 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 12:18 am
They have tried. But it takes time to raise a volunteer force, then train and support them. Labor has the advantage of being able to draw from highly-motivated members of the community who identify with Labor issues. The LNP just don’t have “issues”. We can go and talk to voters about health, education, jobs…all kind of things that actually register with the lived experiences of ordinary people. The LNP cannot do this nearly as well. How, for example, can they go and talk to voters about the IPA’s plans for Australia? They just cannot do it.
Labor can reach voters and learn from them. The LNP may reach voters but have no desire to learn from them…and therefore will fail.
In any case, the LNP have no volunteer base. They are a political shell.