BludgerTrack: 50.2-49.8 to Coalition

Six weeks on, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate remains stuck in neutral on two-party preferred.

Six weeks into the campaign, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is where it was at the start of the campaign, and has been at every point since – with nothing at all to separate the Coalition and Labor on two-party preferred. The only changes since a week ago have occurred at state level, where the Coalition is down two on the seat projection in New South Wales, but up one each in Queensland and Western Australia. The latest addition to the aggregate is your regular weekly Essential Research, which is unchanged on two-party preferred at 51-49 in favour of Labor. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 40%, while Labor, the Greens are the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4% respectively. Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament:

bludgertrack-2016-06-21

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.2-49.8 to Coalition”

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  2. Zoomster

    That’s impressive. Good on him. I’m just going by observable factors like: the number of poster in front yards, street ads, frequency of handing out of leaflets at local railway stations. That sort of thing. However, I also sense a great deal of goodwill towards the Labor candidate.

  3. I know I should understand this better but how does the UK Brexiting reduce their trade with Europe? They don’t have the Euro. Does it void a whole lot of free trade agreements or impose tariffs or something?

  4. Why would the share market crash with Brexit?
    It will force other strong euro countries to consider leaving. Weaker euro countries are being supported and the euro bond value would collapse if even a whiff of this occurred. Banks holding euros or bonds would default and then you could have GFC mk11.

  6. Just read a tweet with .JPG evidence (screen grab of hosting site) that pointed out the Liberals registered “handsoffcfa.com.au” site on April 28, more than a month before the dispute even started.

  7. Enjaybee

    ‘Are the votes for candidate 1 below the line added to what the party receives above the line to determine how may votes are transferred to candidate 2 ‘

    Any votes below the line for Candidate 1 belong to Candidate 1 – and yes, they would be added to the Above the Line vote.

    However, if the person voting for Candidate 1 below the line didn’t have Candidate 2 as their next preference, then that vote would not flow on to Candidate 2.

    ‘and what if any of those votes below the line don’t have candidate 2 as their preference.’

    They would then go to whoever the voters HAD put as their next candidate.

  9. bemused @ #1184 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 9:51 pm

    jenauthor @ #1174 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    A straw poll but would give Hartsuyker pause:
    https://twitter.com/JeffMNeale/status/745549047474249732/photo/1

    Greens vote looks a bit high.

    Given the apparent strength of “other” voting intention at this election, just about any incumbent LNP member facing a credible “other” candidate will be in trouble.

    At least 1/3 of the electorate is susceptible to “other” appeals this time. It’s huge.

  10. diogenes @ #1253 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    I know I should understand this better but how does the UK Brexiting reduce their trade with Europe? They don’t have the Euro. Does it void a whole lot of free trade agreements or impose tariffs or something?

    One outcome is that the UK would not have access to an unlimited source of cheap labour that UK companies can now legally exploit. This could affect their economy big-time.

  11. Confessions @ 10.27

    posted my Senate vote here yesterday and was set upon by some asshole accusing me of having voted wrong. My vote was legal, well within the parameters of the changed Senate votes and according to my own wishes.

    How would someone have known how you voted?

  12. Paul Kennedy is pretty good too. He’s the sports presenter, but very switched on and often get the feeling he holds strong non-sporting opinions that contrast with those presented by the other two. Knows how to bite his tongue though.

  13. bemused @ #1232 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    adrian @ #1225 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    Bemused, serious question.
    Do you still think the ABC is an impartial broadcaster during this election campaign?

    There are instances, such as the one I mentioned earlier, when something is not only biased it is blatantly untrue.
    But I do not share the conspiracy theories of some here and I think some of the comments made by you, Sohar and P1 are just ludicrous.
    The ABC Board needs to be reshaped.

    Agree with you on the conspiracy theories part, and the board needs a great reshuffling.

    There needs to be an ironclad agreement that the board cannot be interfered by the government of the day. Not sure how the board can be appointed without political interference but once appointed, maybe the members should stay for a fixed 5 year term unless in the case of serious breaches or resignation.

  15. tpof @ #1255 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    daretotread @ #1219 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    TPOF
    A Labor TPP of 54% is already very, very good. To win extra seats in Victoria it needs to be 55%. That is a tall order.

    Hard for me to know about Victoria. I’m looking at other states where there were big swings against Labor in 2013.

    “other”-directed voting intention is not merely confined to seats where there have been big swings in the past. This feeling cuts right across geographic, occupation, income, age, gender, educational, ethnic, religious and other divides. It is a kind of revolt against politics as usual. It is very concerted.

  22. Briefly @ 10.51

    I think there are going to be some very surprising results, such is the disaffection with the established political parties (including the Greens) across the board. NXT and select independents with high local presence have a good show, and the possibility of good (but only good) local members withstanding a swing to Labor is also strong.

    For all that, I still hold that Labor will win. At the very least, the Coalition will get back into power so weakened that it would not take much to fall over (or fall to pieces) completely. Unlike the 2010-2013 government, the divisions within the Coalition will be much more than just personal. There will be serious differences both in the economic and, especially, social welfare. There is no John Howard leading them and nobody with his political skills within sight.

  24. Very uninspiring Liberal ad shown in the tail end of Origin. Looks like something from a past era. Is that the best they can do?

  28. Speaking of US politics, you heard this prediction here first:

    Trump is fast realising he can’t win the election. He’s no fool and can read polls; is rapidly waking up to how different the general electorate is to the primary one. He also has no interest in the policy detail needed for the job. Trump is now looking for a face-saving way to get out. He doesn’t want the ultimate humiliation of being demolished by Hillary Clinton in the general election. He knows that would be his footnote in history.

  31. adrian @ #970 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 7:33 pm

    ‘They are too highly paid for the drivel they dish up, too full of themselves to be any use to the nation, and probably need a boot in the arse to get off their own posteriors. Let these bludgers learn what real life is like after all the bullshit they’ve dished out to others telling them how to live theirs.’
    Well said BB. I’d also include Michael Brissenden and Jane Norman.
    BTW, I find Robbie Buck intensely annoying, but have difficulty pinpointing why.
    Can you assist?

    This blast referred to journalists. It is completely in tune with the usual criticisms voters will express about politicians. A very large share of the electorate hold these views in relation to parties, governments at all levels, candidates, government agencies and the media.

    For many months I’ve felt this as a kind of sullenness. But this is changing. Anyone who thinks such feelings will not be expressed politically – by the casting of ballots – is seriously underestimating the Australian electorate.

    In the coming few days, as voters realise they are not only required to cast a vote but have the opportunity to express themselves on the matter of “politics-as-usual”, we will see very pronounced shifts in voting intention. Voters may nor be “angry” in the conventional sense. But they will certainly register their very strong convictions about what they see as serial trickery, deception, manipulation and incompetence.

    The incumbents are about to cop the frustration felt after years and years of disappointment and excuses.

  32. The ABC thinks McEwen is a Liberal gain because of the CWA dispute.
    Here are the Sportsbet odds for McEwen:
    Rob Mitchell(ALP) 1.30
    Liberal candidate 8.80

  33. adrian @ #1274 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    Very uninspiring Liberal ad shown in the tail end of Origin. Looks like something from a past era. Is that the best they can do?

    Is that turnbull’s four reasons to vote Liberal? The one that suggests that it can provide strong and stable government (the sort you get after you roll a PM within a record 2 years after winning government?

  34. Also, Labor favouritism has increased in Page, in 24 hours, according to Sportsbet.
    Another thing I noticed, in the seat of Banks……..Labor has improved there, from 3.00 to 2.75.

  35. Details of handsoffthecfa.com.au from whois.com.au

    Domain Name handsoffthecfa.com.au
    Last Modified 28-Apr-2016 16:29:51 UTC
    Status clientDeleteProhibited
    Status clientUpdateProhibited
    Registrar Name GoDaddy.com, LLC
    Registrant THE LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA VICTORIAN DIVISION
    Registrant ID ABN 70723275853
    Eligibility Type Other
    Registrant Contact ID CR238788091
    Registrant Contact Name Simon Terpstra
    Registrant Contact Email Simon.Terpstra@vic.liberal.org.au
    Tech Contact ID CR238788092
    Tech Contact Name Simon Terpstra
    Tech Contact Email Simon.Terpstra@vic.liberal.org.au
    Name Server ns-1741.awsdns-25.co.uk
    Name Server ns-403.awsdns-50.com
    Name Server ns-903.awsdns-48.net
    Name Server ns-1530.awsdns-63.org
    DNSSEC unsigned

  37. Odds have fallen sharply in Gilmore and Macquarie. Labor still $6.00 in Lindsay. Since it is not a para-mutual there is no way of telling just yet if that reflects lack of interest by punters or the bookie just doesn’t believe it.

  38. Probably too good to be true, but a very encouraging poll from Gilmore (my old seat). I do wonder about the sophomore surge there – I was no particular fan of Joanna Gash, but there’s no denying she was an extremely hard-working and visible local member. Sudmalis is far, far less visible. I was speaking to some non-politically-engaged family members recently and they were under the impression Gash was still the MP (as the local mayor she’s still in the paper a lot), and had never heard of Sudmalis. You would not find a Gilmore voter who hadn’t heard of Gash. I know there’s plenty of evidence that the sophomore surge still takes effect even in cases like these, but I do wonder whether the contrast between Gash and Sudmalis might dull that effect quite a lot.

  39. I don’t believe Labor has a chance in Lindsay, but hey, happy to be proven wrong
    Turnball launching their campaign in the seat of Reid on Sunday, which smacks of an effort to prop up Craig Laundy

  41. tpof @ #1272 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    Briefly @ 10.51
    I think there are going to be some very surprising results, such is the disaffection with the established political parties (including the Greens) across the board. NXT and select independents with high local presence have a good show, and the possibility of good (but only good) local members withstanding a swing to Labor is also strong.
    For all that, I still hold that Labor will win. At the very least, the Coalition will get back into power so weakened that it would not take much to fall over (or fall to pieces) completely. Unlike the 2010-2013 government, the divisions within the Coalition will be much more than just personal. There will be serious differences both in the economic and, especially, social welfare. There is no John Howard leading them and nobody with his political skills within sight.

    I spoke got through to about 35 voters tonight. 5 declined the calls when they realised the call was political or because they were unable to talk at the time. Of the balance, almost all expressed a firm willingness and intention to vote Labor. These included voters that wanted reassurances about negative gearing and were curious to hear about Labor’s economic plans . Almost without exception, these voters were wary at first but nevertheless responded and expressed their thoughts. The pro-Labor response rate has been growing over the last few months in which I’ve been calling. I think the motion is almost all Labor’s way. The call area included some relatively affluent neighbourhoods and voter demographics were right across the spectrum.

  42. The ABC political coverage this election has been woeful, agree on that.
    In Uhlmann’s defence, his wife is a Labor MP, so perhaps he has to be seen to be leaning the other way.
    But as for Sayles and Alberichi and Jennett and Brissenden, amongst others……..they’ve been cheerleading for Turnball from Day 1.

  43. Don’t you get the impression the Liberals are retreating to their third line of defence and trying to sand bag with broken shovels and torn sacks?

  44. I have a sense that the Liberal campaign is suffering greatly because of the amount of time senior Liberals have basically spent in an echo chamber in the last three or four years. For example, they put vast resources into anti-union activities, which have hardly been mentioned in the campaign: somehow they’ve figured out at the last minute that while the IPA and their donors might care greatly about unions, for most voters the issue is a busted flush. Take away the echo chamber preoccupations and you are left with not much, which becomes an ugly problem in a long campaign.

  46. Jackol,
    I am a bit behind in reading these posts, so apologies if I am making points already made:

    The issue with the privately commissioned polls, as KB and others have explained, is the selectivity about whether the polls get released.

    No one is accusing Reachtel of push polling or bodgying up results to appeal to their clients.

    But there is no question that there is a big issue if clients systematically only release the polls that they find useful.

    The whole point of an exercise like Bludgertrack is to use the whole set of samples to reduce the impact of various sources of error. If you only get selective release of polls you can’t see the whole picture and don’t know where “reality” is.

    It’s easy to imagine if we only saw Teacher’s Federation commissioned polls where they chose to release the ALP-favourable and suppressed the ALP-unfavourable that naturally you’d get an impression of the ALP vote that was unrealistically favourable.

    If you have someone flipping coins but they only tell you they’ve flipped a coin when it comes up tails it’ll look like you only get tails from flipping coins.

    Personally I would have thought that Reachtel, for the sake of their newly acquired reputation, would insist on publishing every poll that they do. Maybe with a delay so their client can choose what they do with the results within a short window.

    The above effect notwithstanding, I would assume that having 6 marginal seats showing a shift to the ALP would give a root(6) decrease in the MOE for any individual seat. so, six marginal seats favouring Labor sounds significant to me, although the level of significance would be very different to the way I calculate significance in my work.

    In my work, I am trying to detect a signal that is either there, or not there: A radio source such as a quasar, which may extend over, say, 6 pixels. If I have a weak detection in each pixel, then because the pixels are adjacent, as we would expect for the quasar shaped object, then the uncertainty is definitely decreased by root(6).

    I guess the problem with detecting real signal in opinion polls is that the underlying signal is changing, and so you have fewer assumptions you can use to confirm your result.

  48. Before I call it a night

    Paul Edbrooke MP
    Paul Edbrooke MP – Verified account ‏@paul4frankston

    No firies interested to campaign so Libs hire #fakefirey. fire http://engines.com.au #springst
    Embedded image
    5:00 AM – 22 Jun 2016
    13 RETWEETS5 LIKES

  49. Pedant:

    Totally. We all said at the start of this campaign that the ABCC and its ‘importance’ would hardly if at all get mentioned during the campaign. We knew from the get go that the only reason we’re having an early DD election isn’t because of the imperative of those bills, but because the coaliton wanted to break up the Senate as it stands.

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