Six weeks into the campaign, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is where it was at the start of the campaign, and has been at every point since – with nothing at all to separate the Coalition and Labor on two-party preferred. The only changes since a week ago have occurred at state level, where the Coalition is down two on the seat projection in New South Wales, but up one each in Queensland and Western Australia. The latest addition to the aggregate is your regular weekly Essential Research, which is unchanged on two-party preferred at 51-49 in favour of Labor. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 40%, while Labor, the Greens are the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4% respectively. Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament:
Rogue Scholar
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 5:27 am
On the primary vote, Labor is on 38% and the Liberal National Party is on 40%, compared with 41% and 39% in the previous Newspoll result –
————-
I have been wondering about the State Govt in QLD and where it sits in terms of popularity and if the electorate have reasons to punish the Labor brand at this Federal election .. a 3 point drop in PV at a Statte level is not good albeit a small indicator on it’s own.
The ‘Fire Fighters’ issue is said to be hot in Victoria, council amalgamations in NSW and in WA the Liberal Govt is ‘on the nose’ so bad I can smell it here in Tasmania. But what about Palaszczuk ? Maybe PBers living in QLD can enlighten us ?
My bigger concern for Labor is that PUP drew 11 % of the PV in QLD last time. Ex PUP PV voters will significantly influence the outcome in Capricornia [7.9], Petrie [10.2], Bonner [7.8], Brisbane [4.1], Forde [12.4], Leichardt [8.5], Herbert [8.8], Dickson [9.7] and Longman [12.7].
Who will they vote for now ? We know from Antony Green that PUP preferences ran 46.3 % to Labor and 53.6 to the LNP in 2013. IF those numbers transfer into PVs 53-47 pro LNP, Labor’s task of winning more than 2 seats in QLD gets harder.
On the bright side, William’s tracker is giving 4 seats to Labor in QLD and a 4.8 % swing against the LNP in Qld.
And all of a sudden HERE THEY COME is screamed in newspaper headlines about the interception of an asylum seeker boat heading to Australia. How convenient for the Fibs scare campaign. I maintain my view that there have been boats coming since the Abbott took over- Dutton just put a blanket ban on telling us anything about it – Did they “stop the boats ” ? No, they just stopped telling us about the ones that tried. Now they are facing a hung Parliament at best, they release the truth about boats in the Timor Sea and drop the “Children Overboard” crap Howard won an election on years ago. How pathetic.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
A successful budget for NSW but . . .
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-budget-2016-state-booming-but-set-to-be-penalised-for-its-success-20160620-gpn9lt.html
Here’s some perspective on this issue.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/five-ways-sydney-could-become-an-even-better-place-to-live-20160619-gpmljj.html
No wonder Stephen Smith and the generals didn’t see eye to eye. These are shocking revelations at the Royal Commission.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/royal-commission-into-child-sexual-abuse-defence-force-recruits-forced-to-rape-each-other-20160621-gpo36m.html
Now mark Kenny is writing that Shorten CAN win.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-youve-been-told-labor-cant-win–but-they-can-the-evidence-was-there-all-along-20160621-gpo0ta.html
Lenore Taylor on the scare campaigns.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/21/scare-campaign-the-major-parties-ramp-up-some-frightening-hyperbole
Poor Eddie. Now Turnbull takes him down.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-takes-down-eddie-mcguire-there-is-no-place-for-disrespecting-women-20160621-gpog5z.html
This was after Kristina Keneally challenged him to do so.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/wheres-malcolm-turnbulls-condemnation-of-eddie-mcguire
And the Richmond football club will boycott MMM over it.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/eddie-mcguire-and-caroline-wilson-richmond-tigers-will-boycott-triple-m-radio-this-weekend-20160621-gpop7x.html
The electorate is quite politically disengaged.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/our-new-fave-threeword-slogan-why-even-bother-20160620-gpn9kp.html
Ben Eltham says that under Turnbull health is becoming a private affair.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/21/under-turnbulls-government-health-is-becoming-a-private-affair/
Section 2 . . .
Myths and facts on negative gearing.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/negative-gearing-myths-and-facts,9134
The Puff Adder complains again!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/21/sophie-mirabella-complains-of-stacked-out-audience-at-indi-election-forum
The high cost of becoming a tourist to Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-australian-visas-for-chinese-travellers-need-to-be-cheaper-20160619-gpml4m.html
Richard Ackland writes on the tough time Dreyfus gave Brandis at this week’s debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/mark-dreyfus-on-george-brandis-as-attorney-general-a-disaster-for-the-rule-of-law
Heinz justifiably gets lumbered over its claim on 99% fruit infant foods.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/heinz-in-hot-water-over-shredz-healthy-toddler-snacks-20160620-gpnvr2.html
ASIC tells directors to get much more involved in their companies. Fair enough.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/asic-says-handsoff-company-directors-must-get-their-noses-in-to-culture-20160621-gpofey.html
“View from the Street” with a pot pouri of items.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-australia-wins-climatechangemammal-extinction-race-20160621-gpohx8.html
Penny Wong attacks Turnbull’s hollow words on the effects of the SSM plebiscite.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/not-one-straight-politician-knows-what-its-like-penny-wongs-deeply-personal-plebiscite-anguish-20160621-gpogvz.html
Another Woolworths reversal.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-reworks-loyalty-20160621-gpo3s9.html
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
Is Alan Moir intimating that Shorten doesn’t want to win this election?
Cathy Wilcox and Eddie’s “apology”.
More from Ron Tandberg on Eddie.
David Pope stands up for conservative cartoonists.
David Rowe gives us #fakerefugee.
Mark Knight goes all dark on the #faketradie.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/46316f08895657a7ed7b518911c2d953?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
What a dilemma for the editorial board in the effluent treatment plant masquerading as a media outlet.
Game 2 of the State of Origin on tonight. Orders from Liberal HQ to put Boats on the front page. The mensa crew running the TurdBurgler went with a split front page, Boats at the top, NRL at the bottom but only room for 1 photoshop – NRL wins out.
The effect is weird. ‘Here They Come’ with no image/photoshop above a photo of a Fijian NRL player Semi who apparently is agonising over his contract, sends mixed messages to the barely literate Turd readers and the subliminal memes sent to those who glance at Turd posters or see the piles of unsold Turds in supermarkets and petrol stations.
Who is ‘Coming’? Is it the NRL player?
For the few who get into the Murdoch tabloid political coverage, we get:
– Shortens Medicare Scare hits new low
– an emptying of Murdoch sewer on Rob Oakeshotte
– an the second coming of Jesus with the Saint Mike Baird NSW Budget
Meanwhile the SmearStralian is joining the dots.
‘Unions Bankrolling Independents’ the Smear headline shrieks.
Which is the highlight of an otherwise dull-as-dishwater preaching to the converted waste of bits and bytes.
Don’t take any notice of the reports which the Coalition commission before an election:
http://www.domain.com.au/news/federal-election-2016-house-prices-to-fall-rents-to-rise-under-labor-negative-gearing-policy-20160621-gpoae4/
Look at what they say when they are in government:
First-home buyers won’t be getting any new grants or concessions in the NSW Budget. Instead, they’ll have to wait for high levels of home building to translate into falling property prices, NSW Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian said on Tuesday.
In the aftermath of a four-year house price boom leaving Sydney’s median price just below $1 million, Ms Berejiklian said they were “doing everything
can” for those yet to step onto the property ladder.
“I make no bones of the fact I believe
is one of the biggest challenges facing us,” she said.
http://www.domain.com.au/news/firsthome-buyers-left-relying-on-home-building-causing-price-drops-nsw-budget-20160621-gpo260/
So is it a disaster if house prices fall? Or do they want them to?
A closer look at the SmearStralian does reveal the emergent undercurrent bubbling away. Feature stories are:
Libs Back Abbott for Poll Launch
$10m for PM’s Islamic guests ( the Muzzies invited to Kirribilli house get government grants)
Bernardi questioning PM’s character
Watch those knives in the back, Malcolm. The Monkey Pod is coming for you.
Labor’s Medicare campaign could swing a couple seats. It’s certainly persuaded some voters in a marginal I phone banked.
Also surely the Libs can’t form government as it stands as they’ll most likely loss a couple seats to NXT?
Sprocket
That seems a little blatant. What was Corgi’s main theme?
Lizzie
Bernardi’s theme is that Turnbull accepted the false assumptions in many of the questions from the Q&A audience. He should have challenged these assumptions before answering. A failure of character.
This doesn’t look like support for Mal.
Sprocket_
We’re all wrong, and Bernardi is the only one who knows the truth!!!
It seems like the MSM think Tumbrel and the Libs are in deep shite and are going rabid in their dying days.
Apparently the previous one was a spoof and this is real.
William – “Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament”
Bearing in mind the link that Kevin Bonham provided as to how the betting markets are framed and how they interrelate, I see an anomaly in Sportsbet wrt crossbenchers.
NXT Seats – House of Reps
Zero 7.50 One 3.50 Two 2.75 Three 3.50 Four or more 7.50
NXT v Greens – Most Seats Lower House Markets
Greens 1.75 NXT 2.00
Number of Lower House Cross Benchers
Zero 101.00 One 51.00 Two 34.00
Three 16.00 Four 4.00 Five 2.50
Six 3.50 Seven or More 4.00
These markets say three things. NXT are favoured to get 2 seats. Greens are favoured to get slightly more, but let’s round that down to 2 seats. My assumption is that McGowan, Wilkie, and Katter will be returned.
That gives NXT (2) + GRN (2) + Others (3) = 7 compared to the markets 6.
Do you think that 6 or 7 or 8 cross-benchers is enough for a hung parliament?
Thanks BK. So Mark Kenny says the ALP can win? Obviously they can. Mal’s “we will win” TWO WEEKS out smells like fear rather than hubris.
I wonder if toolman will reassess his prediction?
Moving away from the phony war about Medicare to something that represents a real threat to the well being of Australians.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/22/climate-change-poll-finds-support-for-strong-action-at-highest-level-since-2008
I’m sad to see that the electorate doesn’t seem to be able to distinguish the superiority of the Labor policies over those of the Libs. The obvious explanation is that Labor has done very little to promote them.
The Climate Institute reveals its close ideological links to the Greens by being so critical of Labor’s policies, which are practical, achievable and would actually make a real difference.
Good photoshop effort on Herald Sun, but hell will freeze over before we see anything like that in reality.
To another branch of the coalition propaganda machine – didn’t hear any election news on ABC radio news. There must be a temporary communications blockage between LNP headquarters and the ABC. No doubt it will be resolved by the time we are treated to yet another coalition minister on AM.
sprocket
And don’t you just love how they worded this news about a Coalition Stop the Boats ‘Fail’ ?
‘Moving away from the phony war about Medicare to something that represents a real threat to the well being of Australians.’
Wrong Mr Barber. It is not a phony war. Unless you or your family are somehow immune from sickness, or you have a massive income, the changes that the spivs will enact on Medicare if given half a chance will threaten your well being.
Have you not noticed the changes to pathology services and GP co-payment that they have already tried to enact.
It’s in their IPA DNA.
Lying liars always gonna lie.
“They’re Coming!”
Shit, I forgot to set the table.
With out wanting to harp to much on fake tradie. i must make a few comments. Firstly to get an Electrical supervisor licence I had to serve an apprenticeship have references of my experience and be questioned on my knowledge of the SAA Wiring Rules. there is another way of getting an Electrical supervisor licence, that is to own a company that employs qualified electricians.
Did he do his welding coarse through TAFE which the the Libs want to destroy
I hope the Brits vote to leave the EU basket case.
For supposedly smart operators, Teh Evil People Smugglers sure play dumb.
If you wanted your business model to survive, why would you send a boat *now*, in the middle of an election campaign?
Unless it’s just that we’re not being told about the others that have been sent.
The herald Sun cover is damming.
As Sprocket says the DT cover is a mess, in fact the paper copy is in thirds, the top boats, middle origin and the bottom third the state budget wtte
‘NSW is being slugged billions to support the failed maroon state to our north. ‘
Referring to GST receipts.
I guess that is what happens if you release the state budget the nigh before origin 2.
The Australian is running ads on 3aw each morning saying wtte:
Avoid the spin. Buy the Australian for an objective, unbiased coverage of the election.
(The first three words are verbatim. The rest is an accurate distillation of the message).
How ironic that the most biased, dishonest, shit sheet is being advertised in that way. Apparently Murdoch is having trouble getting people to buy his lies and fabrications.
Golden AFR front page: “PM urged to hold nerve on tax cuts – busness worried about long-term commitment”.
You’ve got to hand it to Big Business in Australia, it is consistent. Their party is heading for the S-bend and they keep putting their hand out for more.
Re Sproket_ @6:45AM: That Telecrap front page was bizarre.
As usual, the electronic version was relatively measured, with NRL first (well, after a banner ad ‘Serial Killer with a Badge’ for an article about infamous NSW bad cop Rogerson). The ‘boats’ story was second, with the headline was “Boats are Back: interception warning for Labor”, billed as an ‘exclusive’ (probably means leaked by Government sources, or maybe just a beat-up. Probably both).
The paper version goes full on. “Here They Come”, subheading “Smugglers restarting evil trade” (although they probably never stopped). Below this is a picture of some menacing looking bearded dark skinned guy with a beard over a headline ‘Theiving Banana Bludgers’. I wouldn’t put it below Newscrap to have deliberately thought this whole frontpage through to send their subliminal message: “Forget Medicare: this is what you should be worrying about”, even working ‘dole bludgers’ into the mix.
I wonder if that black NRL guy would have a case to sue?
Time for Rupe to flip over and back the winner.
rogue scholar @ #1 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 5:47 am
Rogue (hope the quoting works)
Palaszczuk is not hated in Qld. Perhaps mild disappointment. The only issue which could be serious is the Adani coal mine which has angered many green leaning types. I expect that some traditional left Labor will go Green on this issue but preferences will come back to Labor.
However your comment about PUP is very relevant. PUP did well in the more depressed electorates and as such must be seen as an “angry vote.” I think that the PUP vote will once again go against the majors – probably One Nation, ALA, Shooters etc. Up North Katter is the most likely recipient of PUP votes. Watch One Nation in Longman and Wide Bay (also Katter). Dickson the only non major in LDP. I think they are aiming for the “angry” vote in outer Brisbane.
By the time we got toABC 8.45 news they had their riding instructions. So we had Labor to continue its scare campaign despite the PM guaranteeing Medicare would not be privatized, complete with sound grabs from AMA president that the old tech needed upgrading and this wasn’t privatisation.
Labor needs to counter this lie that it’s just about upgrading the technology.
I haven’t read any comments since I last posted will do later.
I really hope Labor does really well and shows the egomaniacs in the MSM that they are obsolete morons.
Sheesh 7.45 news…
LUCA – Thanks. That’s good to hear. Keep up the good work.
morning bludgers
How pathetic of the Herald Sun with their front page effort this morning. The whole CFA thing is not only a state matter, but it is a confected issue. It has been resolved. Just cause some fools and the State Liberals here are attempting go make it an issue, doesnt mean Shorten should be buying into it.
Yesterday Peter Helliar of the Project spent a day on The Billbus with Shorten and other Labor MPs and msm. They did a hi vis challenge which was shown last night on the Project. Apparently tonight Peter Helliar will show the rest of stuff he did on billbus with Shorten etc.
DTT: Surely, in queensland, angry “Other” voters are good for the ALP. Ex Pup voters will vote a lot more strongly for Labor than last time, particularly if they come from depressed areas and are worried about Medicare etc etc.
Luca
Appreciate the feedback. Keep up the good work!!
Seems like Medicare is off the media radar now. Only fleeting snippets about it on ABC24 this morning. Hopefully something brings it back into the spotlight. Negative or Positive doesn’t matter, when it comes to Medicare, it’s all a win for Labor. If it can somehow stay in the headlines through the weekend I think the ALP will be home.
[Seems like Medicare is off the media radar now. ]
because it is a huge negative for the libs
AB – Who cares about the headlines? The ads are the killers.
c@tmomma: the truth is that nobody – including Labor – really knows what impact proposed Labor’s negative gearing/CGT changes will have on house prices and rents.
I think house prices might well fall in some places (I’d put my money on it being most marked on the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and similar locales up and down the east coast), but they are unlikely to fall far or long in Sydney or Melbourne while each of those cities continues to receive 50,000 or more new permanent settlers each year and a significantly larger number of 457s, students and other temporary residents under the migration policy mix initially introduced by the Howard Government. So I’m pretty sceptical about any idea that house prices will come down in the areas under most pressure.
What could well happen is a drying up of rental investment in some of these areas, especially Sydney. At current house prices, the effective net yields for investors are about minus 1-2 per cent (interest of around 5 per cent; other costs – state land taxes, council rates, maintenance – at around 1.5 per cent; rental yield at around 4 per cent pa and average tax benefits from negative gearing losses at around 0.5-1.5 per cent). Quite clearly, as all economists agree, the investors are in the market for capital gains, not to benefit from negative gearing losses (which are relatively small in the overall scheme of things).
But the capital gains are also going to be more heavily taxed, and that will apply on both new and existing dwellings. Moreover, if interest rates rise, the absence of negative gearing will be felt more acutely by investors. It’s not hard to do the sums: rental yield of 4 per cent minus other costs of 1.5 per cent minus interest rates of, say, 8 per cent and the net annual loss is suddenly 5 per cent or more.
I have long been of the view that rental housing is a lousy investment. It appeals to many investors because it seems secure and easily understandable. They aren’t so worried about net yields because they use paying off the mortgage as a form of compulsory saving: the recent Vote Compass analysis (probably unrepresentative, but nevertheless interesting) showed that the older the rental investor, the less geared they are. These middle to upper income investors most likely see negative gearing as something more of an incentive to save than as a major means of minimising tax. (Studies have shown that the average negative gearing loss by an individual taxpayer is less than $10k per annum: which is not exactly on a Panama Papers sort of scale).
The risk with Labor’s policies is that they are likely to discourage future investors of this type to enter the market. And if, as I believe, rental housing is not a particularly good form of investment, then where are the alternative investors going to come from to make up the shortfall: to provide housing for those many tens of thousands (perhaps 200,000 in a big year) of permanent and temporary migrants streaming into Sydney and Melbourne?
I struggle to see how it could be the case that rents in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne, wouldn’t begin to rise quite steeply quite quickly. There was a slight hint of this in Sydney in 1987 and the NSW and Federal Governments immediately panicked. Why won’t this happen again?
Regarding ‘Brexit’ ..approximately 40% have declared their intention to vote to remain ..40% to leave ..and almost 20% undecided..
..doesn’t take a genius to work out that in a referendum the majority of undecided will opt for the status quo..
I head the federal housing minister (I think) on Hack the other night talking about house prices and how building new houses is what it’s all about – supply is the key.
If that’s the case, why wouldn’t incentivizing new housing by making negative gearing available only to new dwellings boost the rate of supply because investors will put their dough into them instead of existing ones?
The headlines reinforce the idea that it’s actually true not just some partisan spin, regardless of the content of both. It makes it real to the average voter I think.
Steve777
“I wouldn’t put it below Newscrap to have deliberately thought this whole frontpage through to send their subliminal message: “Forget Medicare: this is what you should be worrying about”, even working ‘dole bludgers’ into the mix.
I wonder if that black NRL guy would have a case to sue?”
I did cross my mind that the “Here They Come” boat people swamping us, with a Fijian NRL player providing the front page image, and ‘banana benders’ at the bottom were all a intentional constructed montage.
One of the reasons I hear from pals who are/were NRL fans for being less enamoured with NRL, is the influx of Islander players. It is like ‘they are coming’ to swamp our game, kick out the white bread boys.
Has the Health Minister Sussan Ley popped up at all during this medicare “scare” campaign?!
Meher
“phony war on Medicare”
Now I’m beginning to see you as a troll, not just as a naive youngster.
Attempted co-payment, freezing doctor rebates for 6 years, hiving off payment part to private mates ……
Clearly your mob, the Conservos, are doing everything possible to preserve Medicare. Yeah!
Here’s a question for you. Do you think the Conservos support medicare, 100%, no doubt, it’s in their DNA?
Ditto question for you.
The Herald Sun is the biggest selling paper in Melbourne town. And Peter Helliar is considered as a knock about guy. Celebrity is not a description that fits him. What a frickin joke