Another electorate polling round-up

A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls provide much better news for Labor, while insider accounts of the state of play feature reams of seats that could go either way.

The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:

Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.

Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.

Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.

Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.

Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.

Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.


James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.

The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.

• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 comments on “Another electorate polling round-up”

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  1. David Cameron signals that while he’ll guide tgings in the next few months, Britain will need a new PM to guide Brexit.

  2. “Who do you trust to see Australia through the Brexit global perturbations and to protect its social fabric at the same time?”
    This could well be Shorten’s mantra for the next week.

  3. Ch 10 5pm news firstly showed Brexit and the stock market plunge. Then Turnbull in front of his usual election prop looking and sounding all serious about turbulent times and need to maintain stability etc. No image of Shorten on Brexit.
    Followed by something on scare campaigns going wrong (nothing really specific) and the inevitable “pub test interviews” with fed up people.

    Turnbull obviously going for the “statesman” look.

  4. Kudos to David Cameron on his speech.He had to resign given his stance.Resigned with dignity,accepted the decision of his people.

  5. c@tmomma @ #2098 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:20 pm

    Rogue Scholar,
    By Monday it will come back to one choice: “jobs and growth” or “health,education and childcare” – choose. keep it simple stupid KISS works with disengaged or disappointed electorate.
    I have been handing out HTVs this week and my experience has been that the electorate has been more engaged than I have seen for many a long year. Pre Polling is very popular. People are asking questions and seem to have informed themselves of the issues beforehand.

    Yes…I agree. I don’t think disengagement is a factor. Disappointment, yes. Discouragement and indecision, yes. Rejection, yes. Voters are well-sensitised to political events and themes.

  6. Lindsay
    Did I touch a nerve?

    My connections to the game go way back. Grew up in League heartland and as a kid I used to kick around with Wombat and Thrower when they had their offseason jaunts in my area.

    I will apologise for calling it boring as it clearly isnt to many. However, it is a 1D game and many supporters do seem rather fixated by it – often to the exclusion of just about everything else.

  7. Boris Johnson is the obvious choice but I wonder whether the time being given to slowly decide a replacement might lead to a different choice.

  8. “Brexit a huge finger to the British establishment by the ‘great unwashed’..

    ..I didn’t think it would happen an expat Northerner (Manchester), I’m very pleased it has”

    Markjs I see it more like spooked cattle running towards the abbatoir cos they’ve seen strangers in the paddock

  9. edi_mahin @ #2125 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:29 pm

    Boris Johnson is the obvious choice but I wonder whether the time being given to slowly decide a replacement might lead to a different choice.

    There have been various Conservative Ministers who were part of the Leave campaign and possibly one of them may be considered a more suitable compromise.

  10. Tom Hawkins
    Friday, June 24, 2016 at 5:14 pm
    Labor can speak about it’s recent economic achievements
    – achieving a AAA credit rating
    – weathering the GFC
    and point out that this is NOT the time to be providing a multi billion dollar tax benefit to banks and multinationals. It is a time for ordinary Australians to receive our primary support.

    I think you’ve hit the nail right on the head there Tom. It’s the perfect time to attack the Liberals over their “plan” to give a huge handout to big business, when ordinary Australians are feeling so uneasy about their future.

  11. Cameron completely stuffs up the UK political and economic settings. Quits. Another uselessly weak Tory failure.

  12. Zoidloid, I highly doubt it, Osborne is not liked within the party, he will not hold any position of real power by October even if he does not resign.

  13. SK

    Don’t flatter yourself. RL has survived and prospered in spite of the denigration of the ruling elite for over a century, Neville nobodies like yourself can’t do it any harm.

  14. “Well the people of Bradford are becoming somewhat upset by the huge number of Mosques in their era?.”

    but 1934pc they sure are loving their kormas and biryanis

  15. Tassie polling (all five electorates) coming tomorrow. I’ve seen it but under embargo. The Mercury has tweeted “There will be big upsets in several Tasmanian seats according to exclusive ReachTEL polling.” Detailed analysis on my site ( tomorrow 8:30 am.

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