Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Hate to say it, but Turnbull isn’t doing too badly.

    He’s lied, he’s waffled, he’s spent most of this time emitting irrelevancies.

  2. Nice to see that Tony Jones has taken the criticisms from last week to heart and is keeping his interruptions and follow-up questions to a minimum.

  3. I’m actually feeling a bit sorry for Turnbull, he’s not well and is getting slammed by a very cynical, seemingly very pro labor audience.
    This audience thus far seems to be very anti coalition.

  4. Turnbull reminding me of the character in Life of Brian talking about the things with raffia work, and people finding the things they had misplaced just yesterday…

  5. The audience is asking many of the questions that the MSM has ignored. Turnbull has not done enough genuine town halls to have the ready answers to these questions and it shows.

  6. Is someone quoting the same Eva Cox that thought Abbott’s maternity money for women of substance was both:
    1. Really real, and,
    2. A really good idea,
    As an authority on social policy?

  7. You hear that Australia, we have to live within our means! Except, of course, when it comes to a 50 billion dollar handout to big business.

  8. How come Turnbull can claim he can make pledges when he indicated he couldn’t “overturn” the plebiscite because it was decided before he became PM ?
    Where’s your pledge about that divisive waste of money, Mal ?

  9. Labor internal polling provided to the Advertiser shows that Kate Ellis is in danger in Adelaide. The Reachtel poll was conducted earlier in the month and showed that the liberals were leading 51-49. Rather unfortunately, primary voting intentions and preference distribution information were not provided. Sample size was 364.

    Side note: I was actually contacted by Reachtel as part of this poll 2-3 weeks ago.

    My feeling that no sitting SA MP can be truly considered safe has not changed.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/labor-frontbencher-kate-ellis-headed-for-defeat-to-liberals-in-adelaide-alp-poll-shows/news-story/a176c2857bf9a1cd2d00da9a52a9ea8d
    (Paywalled)

  10. Since 2001, 27 OECD countries now have lower company tax than Australia.

    Now, which one of those countries survived the GFC unscathed again?

  11. Going ahead despite a bad cold, rather than postponing until next week, shows they know they haven’t got it in the bag. Unfortunate timing, and I actually think he would have done much better in a Q&A opposite Shorten.

  12. Turnbull seems to think he’s running for Prime Professor, not Prime Minister. Does he have to give rambling lectures for every answer?

  13. sykesie @ #1145 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    Labor internal polling provided to the Advertiser shows that Kate Ellis is in danger in Adelaide. The Reachtel poll was conducted earlier in the month and showed that the liberals were leading 51-49. Rather unfortunately, primary voting intentions and preference distribution information were not provided. Sample size was 364.
    Side note: I was actually contacted by Reachtel as part of this poll 2-3 weeks ago.
    My feeling that no sitting SA MP can be truly considered safe has not changed.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/federal-election/labor-frontbencher-kate-ellis-headed-for-defeat-to-liberals-in-adelaide-alp-poll-shows/news-story/a176c2857bf9a1cd2d00da9a52a9ea8d
    (Paywalled)

    Haven’t read the article, but IMO SA seat polls are quite unreliable due to the unknowable quantity of preferences from NXT.

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