Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Anyone who still harbours the delusion that Turnbull the Winner will be more centrist have just had that blown out of the water with his first answer on QandA.

  2. Re Wentworth, AUSDAVO is totally right. Big Jewish community with liberal views; big gay community. And as Sprocket says, these people already have their money. They won’t mind giving Malcolm a big kick in the arse for lying to them about his progressive values. Do you think Malcolm would have ever muttered much about gay rights if he wasn’t the Member for Wentworth. He probably won’t lose the seat, but I won’t be shocked if it comes into play.

  3. The fight for Truffles’ endorsement as candidate in Wentworth in the first place was a pretty knockdown drag out affair. Lord Buffering’s winning was not assured. Marquis of Queensbury rules ? As if . Well at least that was how it was reported in the GG. So plenty of latent Mr Harbourside Mansion opponents.

  4. Not answering the question on Medicare. He was asked how the Liberals can be believed when they lied last time. He says – believe me!

  5. Q&A sensoring comments? Would be interested in knowing how many comments are normally shown and how many are being shown tonight. Haven’t had a comment now for a few minutes. Must be all negative?

  6. rummel

    You can be DAMNED sure he ‘stands for’ Malcolm Turnbull. As is the case with every other mega ego that thinks that of all the people in ‘Straya they are the “chosen one”

  7. I think despite his cold that Turnbull is proving reasonably effective so far on Q&A. I saw a few clips of the Labor launch earlier tonight and – this won’t be a popular perception here – I thought having giants like Hawke, Keating and even Gillard present just underscored how mediocre Shorten seems, notwithstanding the way he’s lifted his game a lot since its nadir six months ago.

    My problem with Labor’s Medicare scare campaign is that it doesn’t really jive with the electorate’s perception of Turnbull. The electorate is disappointed with Turnbull in many ways – that he’s a ditherer, indecisive, all talk no action, has no plan etc etc but I don’t think the idea that he is trying to trick the population over something like privatising Medicare squares with the general perception of Turnbull.

  8. I dont know how he will make it through the hour.. He looks terrible, sounds terrible and waffling is no more redeeming with a husky voice.

  9. Mal just congratulates the doctor on persisting in the face of Liberal cuts.
    Another interruption from Jones…

  10. TPOF –

    In the latest distribution Wentworth has lost some of the more Labor/Greens leaning areas of Darlinghurst and Kings Cross.

    Yeah, I was going to say that Wentworth just got a lot less gay/green based on the redistribution, so Malcolm in trouble – and the ALP looking at all competitive – would definitely be surprising.

    But there’s no question Turnbull is a disappointment and he certainly can’t take the seat for granted.

  11. Turnbull saying “What i have done”, and repeating it, emphasizing the I, a bit latter barely heard him say “we”.

  12. Interesting that the questions to turnbull thus have all been on labor’s strengths and talking points.
    Mal is not winning them over at this point I must say, being his usual prolix self.

  13. Alias I think Labor understand that the only way to decisively win against Turnbull is to destroy any remaining popular trust that he hasn’t already trashed, hence the portrayal as mendacious rather than merely ineffectual

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