Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. The Primary Health Networks will respond to whoever makes the greatest noise or criticism; and that won’t be people who need the headspace support.

    Exactly. The federal govt has done similar in other areas by changing the ‘preferred provider’ nature of current funding agreements to open tender. While this greater transparency is to be applauded, what we’ve seen as outcomes, in this regional location anyways, is that that small local services are unable to demonstrate viability and feasibility against large multinational companies who operate out of Perth yet provide a skeleton locally-based staff.

  3. Laughed at Louise Markus searching for an “achievement”. For about three seconds she thought she had gotten away without having to come up with one, her expression was comical when she realised she would have to keep searching for one

  11. Ausdavo
    Monday, June 20, 2016 at 9:05 pm
    Corporate_misfit And Mal’s eating a “polly waffle” – gimme strength !

    Waffle Power..now your talking!!!

  13. DW – Wentworth is a special case. Turnbull improved his margin significantly over time. However, a lot of pepole in the electorate would feel dreadfully disappointed in him. They’d feel conned. It’s full of top-level professionals who would despise what he’s done on refugees, arts funding, same sex marriage. I won’t be surprised if there is a massive swing against him which will be many times the national swing. It’s not inconceivable he’ll lose the seat. It looks like Labor has also found themselves a good candidate for once.

  14. I doubt any ALP insiders would make such a statement knowing how close the polls are indicating this election appears to be.

    An ALP insider could be anyone who is a member. Up to yesterday it could have been the guy who stood down as the Labor candidate in Riverina. With genuine respect to Zoomster, she could be described as an ‘insider’ for the purpose of giving some legitimacy to an otherwise baseless claim.

  15. Eva Cox: https://theconversation.com/major-parties-are-behind-the-times-and-strangely-silent-on-social-policy-60314

    As we enter the business end of the election campaign, with pre-polling underway, there is a profound lack of any social welfare policies on offer from either major party. The Greens have now put up proposals, mainly to raise the levels of some of the basic welfare payments in line with wide recommendations, including from the Business Council of Australia.

    The bipartisan silence suggests that neither Labor nor the Coalition are keen to engage in this area, despite their frequent promises of fairness and trust. Their focus on working families or agile entrepreneurs fails to tackle the needs of those who are not contributing paid work hours.
    ::::
    In Australia, neither major party seems willing to engage with positive changes to welfare policy and income support, assuming instead that these will be fixed by more jobs and growth….
    ::::
    Both major parties, when in power this century, have failed to tackle the increasing gap between the jobs available and the number of job seekers.
    ::::
    It seems neither major party recognises the structural causes of unemployment and so cannot solve the social problems associated with it. This makes it unlikely that they will explore ideas for universal payments that could reduce the ill-effects of structural poverty and fix the structural inequity problems that create divisive societies.

  16. davidwh @ #1002 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 9:03 pm

    If there really is a 22% swing in Wentworth it’s all over for Mal and Labor wins with a 40 seat msjority.

    Only if we are talking TPP. It is quite possible for there to be a huge PV swing against Turnbull and return to him through preferences. For the most part – especially after the redistribution – it’s a very well off part of Australia and too many yuppies would be uncomfortable with helping Labor to get back in.

  17. Davidwh
    I am sure there isnt a 22% swing on in Wentworth and that ‘fess is correct. But a lot of these seat polls are getting coverage, so why not that one?

    Shouldnt a carefully selected 350 sample in an division be enough to make it noteworthy?

  19. SK

    I repeat: that was never my criteria. I made a list of attributes (non physical) which I thought were best in a VP for Hillary and then found one who matched.

    Other posters then remarked how good looking he was, and so – since then – I’ve made references to that, but it was never my criteria.

    I don’t know why it bugs me, but it does – probably because I never did value physical appearance above other attributes (one of my boyfriends was a deadset genius, but the idea that any girl would go out with him was so surprising to his friends and acquaitances that the first month or so of our relationship saw about fifty of them rocking up to check out what kind of girl would even think of it…)

    I would ask you to very kindly refrain from that kind of dig in the future, because it just isn’t me.

  20. TPOF a 22% swing would put the Greens second and they would win with Labor preferences. Can’t see it getting anywhere near that.

  21. meher baba @ 8.29pm: “Surely even as rusted-on a Laborite as you can see that “you can deny it all you like but your side of politics doesn’t keep promises” is a really cheap shot.”

    Well, I’m not a rusted-on Laborite, I’m a swinging voter who has never been a member of any party. So while your tu quoque arguments about carbon taxes and children living in policy by 1990 might set some ALP posters back on their heels, they have no impact on me.

    And I’d have to say I think it’s entirely reasonable to point to the proven, serial, ingrained mendacity of this government as a reason for treating their denials of policies as not credible. They have bucketloads of form in this regard. And as I noted earlier, privatisation is in their DNA. As a citizen, I deeply resent being lied to by politicians of any colour, but this lot have been some of the worst I can recall. They insult the intelligence. Politicians have no intrinsic right to be believed: trust needs to be earnt.

    If various authors are to be believed, even Wyatt Roy was onto this.

  23. The rich toffs in Wentworth will never not return their multimillionaire Liberal PM local member seeking re-election.

    Seriously, get a grip folks.

  24. Simon Katich
    TPOF
    except it does rather look like a yuppie ALP candidate.
    Heck they could be a ‘Hipster” and I’d still cheer as long as they get Mal’s clacker working overtime 🙂

  26. At the end of 4 Corners, it looks like a significant number of New England people wants to see the back of Joyce. I hope that becomes a reality.

  27. Hey, I know that electorate pretty well. I was born in what is now part of it and my father and brother still live there. I can’t see Turnbull losing his seat for a moment. All I’m suggesting is that whatever personal disappointment may be registered with Turnbull, the votes will come back to him.

  28. R
    The last seat poll, which had a large MOE, had Joyce on a primary vote of around 48%.
    While preferences will flow strongly Windsor it sort of looks at the moment that Joyce will squeak back in.
    But who knows?

  32. confessions @ #1023 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 9:17 pm

    The rich toffs in Wentworth will never not return their multimillionaire Liberal PM local member seeking re-election.

    Not all of Wentworth is rich, especially people who have lived in areas like Bondi, Waverley and points south and west of the Harbour for many years and whose income has not increased in line with the increase in their property values. Of course, newer people buying into this part of the eastern suburbs will be pretty well off but not necessarily old style wealth.

    That said, it is hard to see it not remaining with the Liberals as demographic changes increase the level of wealth in the electorate.
    Seriously, get a grip folks.

  34. Wentworth has the largest number of people utilising negative gearing in Australia. The Wentworth Courier, full of up market real estate, is read like a bible. These are not aspirationals, these people already have it.

  36. bemused @ #869 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:38 pm

    mtbw @ #860 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:28 pm

    Douglas And Milko
    If I were you I would get in touch with him and ask if he would like some help
    Pre polling is up and running already at Padstow TAFE.
    One thing to look out for is at the last election there was a clear sign that the Leaders of the Chinese community and there are many in Banks who were being told that the they HAD to vote Liberal and they won.
    Chris strikes me as a lovely bloke not up himself but determind to get the seat against the LIbs

    Labor needs to counter that by getting ALP members and supporters in the Chinese community involved.

    I have to admit that in my community, among those who are politically charged, people are quite polarised between the Libs and the ALP, with the Libs unfortunately having the upper hand in convincing them that Libs = business friendly = $$$. I’ve given up getting into such arguments because nobody wants to listen.

  37. Just for interest…

    Wentworth was talked about as in danger in 2007. The result…Turnbull 53,9% 2PP.
    He actually got one of the few swings to the LNP (1.3%).
    So in 2004 his margin was only 2.4%. The seat was considered to be marginal.
    If he’s blown his credibility he could have a very reduced majority.

  38. boerwar @ #1028 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    R
    The last seat poll, which had a large MOE, had Joyce on a primary vote of around 48%.
    While preferences will flow strongly Windsor it sort of looks at the moment that Joyce will squeak back in.
    But who knows?

    There’s been a few polling by a few different companies with a variety of results. I think the MoE is very high and makes for unreliable data.

  39. OK. That last post was screwed up by inserting my post in the middle of the quote from Confessions.

    The third paragraph belongs to Confession’s and should be before what is currently the second paragraph, which is my comment on Confession’s post.

  41. Seriously though, that was pretty lame. The only thing that I didn’t know already was that Joyce told a constituent to ‘piss off’. Big deal.

  42. TPOF:

    What Sprocket said. My mum lives in Turnbull’s electorate and our frequent phone calls reveal her frustration that people around her refuse to see what this govt is doing. Incidentally just as she experienced when she lived in Abbott’s electorate.

  43. Ensuring that the workforce is healthy, and have healthy families, could be said to constitute economic policy as well as social policy. Society and the economy are a single fused system

  45. jen
    I really like that.
    The clever jibes re faketradie were getting a bit much. That ad hits the right pitch.

  50. ausdavo @ #1037 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    Just for interest…
    Wentworth was talked about as in danger in 2007. The result…Turnbull 53,9% 2PP.
    He actually got one of the few swings to the LNP (1.3%).
    So in 2004 his margin was only 2.4%. The seat was considered to be marginal.
    If he’s blown his credibility he could have a very reduced majority.

    In the latest distribution Wentworth has lost some of the more Labor/Greens leaning areas of Darlinghurst and Kings Cross. According to one web site these changes increased the Liberal margin by 1.1%.

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