With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.
The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.
Can the Coalition win with a 41 primary?
from the previous…
wakefield @ #1061 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:30 pm
Briefly – sounds like you are canvassing in a very difficult area. It is one of the oddities of politics in Australia that areas with high dependency on social security often also have a very low interest in politics. Same reason for use of drugs and poor diet – a poverty of spirit that is very hard to budge and certainly needs a good look by everyone concerned with reform politics.
Yes. The area is so washed out.
I had a very upbeat day yesterday..so much fun, on the whole. And less than 2km away, streets of pity and fear….
Beetroot head will be pooing his pants at that Newspoll of New England
Joyce ought to be worried about New England, Windsor is a show there.
Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:34 pm
edi_mahin @ #993 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:05 pm
Wow! What a hoot PB has become today! First Steel Wool and then Less Blade and now this!
gecko @ #1 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:35 pm
Nope.
evan parsons @ #4 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:36 pm
He won’t be too worried if the PV is at 48%.
Newspoll: ALP +1, Coalition + 1, Green +-0, Others -2?
Briefly
Yes the Lib primary seems to be stuck at 41 and not moving at all.That seems to be the most believeable figure over the weeks compared with other polls.
gecko @ #1 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:35 pm
More to the point, the ALP can definitely win with 36.
Nat numbers in New England is in big contrast with previous polling (can’t remember by who). Then again, individual seat polls tend to be unreliable. I wonder how many polled and what MoE.
Briefly:
Whereabouts were you campaigning today?
If the greens poll 8-9% in the election (about what I figure they’ll get) and they preference 75% to the ALP (less than they’ve traditionally done) the ALP have won it.
Briefly – when I have been door knocking in similar areas I often used to ask whether people are interested in the election. Often got a rude look, a bit of abuse, a question as to whether I am in favour of legal drugs etc and moved on. Not sure if you are using Electoral Roll but quite a significant % of people in a very depressed area probably not on roll – probably more than 10%. Add about 5-10% of those on the roll probably wont turn up and then add another 5-10% who will turn up and do the informal.
Its one of the problems in Australia today that we have a disengaged group who should be trying to sort out problems but seem to have given up on politics.
Round up 2 weeks to go:
Essential 51-49 ALP
ReachTel 51:49 LNP
Ipsos: 51:49 ALP
Morgan 51:49 ALP
Newspoll 50:50
Newspoll has the G PV @ 10%. This will likely overstate the actual result by 1-2%, which will likely mainly register with Labor, especially as the G’s have been doing their best to repel Labor-positive voters. So the Labor PV would come in @ around 38% if this Newspoll were otherwise accurate. Labor PV @ 38%; G PV @ 8%; LNP PV @ 41%; Other vote @ 13%, splits Labor’s way (other than in SA, where it just splits against the Liberals). Labor win.
Privo
William said the other day that the greens preference Labor by an average of 83% and will at this election.
privi izumo @ #13 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:42 pm
Assuming Newspoll numbers, that’s 43%. Will need about 50% preferences from Others.
Re informal voting, drawing a little sketch on my reps ballot paper won’t render a vote informal? As long as the vote is fully and properly preferenced
confessions @ #12 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:42 pm
Western end of Cowan…
“Satisfaction with Turnbull’s performance fell over the past fortnight while Shorten’s satisfaction rating climbed.”
I thought satisfaction figures were bit dodgy in last fortnight’s sample.
Privi – try some maths. If Greens get 10 and Labor get 80% of preferences then you get LNP 41+2 = 43 and Labor 36+8 = 44. How does that equal a Labor win.
gecko @ #1 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:35 pm
Depends on the size of the Labor vote, the flow of third-party preferences and the distribution of the swing around marginal seats. At the 2007 Election and the 2010 Election the Coalition got around 42%-41%of the primary vote and lost, but at the 1998 Election the Coalition got around 39.5% of the primary vote and irked out a win.
You would think such a magnificent, multi-pronged failure of arithmetic, statistics and psephology would be quite rare for Privi, but the man is exceptionally talented.
As I said before the SA election, Labor might not win but the odds on Labor are ridiculously long. You can get $6 on the ALP to win. It’s well worth a flutter.
Briefly:
Sounds like things aren’t going so well in that part of the state.
wakefield @ #14 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:43 pm
I think “disengaged” is not a good description. These were enrolled voters who have been “dispossessed” over the last 2-3-4 years. They are “rejectionist”. Their way of expressing themselves is to clam up and lash out. I really feel for them. They feel their dignity has been swiped while, just a few km away, their landlords live in mansions overlooking the ocean. They are on the wrong side of the employment, education, health, income and wealth divide.
If Turnbulls satisfaction is still falling it means it probably hasnt levelled out yet.Hopefully it will drop further in the next 2 weeks.
confessions @ #26 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:51 pm
Along the Wanneroo Road corridor, unemployment has tripled since 2013. There is a great deal of resentment.
Briefly
Wow thats a big jump in 3 years.What types of jobs have they lost?
The Greens are unchanged at 10 per cent. Green +-0
Exactly where their belief in their intellectual superiority gets them. Going nowhere fast.
briefly @ #29 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:53 pm
Balga, Ballajura, Mirabooka, or out Midland way?
The one thing that does stand out in these area is the plainly insulting emptiness of “Jobs & Growth”. This is just a sick joke to those who have been sacked, had their rates cut and their hours reduced. Whenever the Liberals use it, they may as well be campaigning for Labor.
Briefly – ok if they are angry and feeling upset about the lack of economic support and opportunities then you should be on fertile ground – eg don’t miss the opportunity to kick out the renters, rent seekers and defenders of the banks who run the current LNP government. I know it is not always so easy – but much worse with seriously disengaged people in multi-generational lack of employment etc.
Briefly
It is a very long corridor so which end is worst hit?
Seems a lot of largely unfounded belief in intellectual superiority around here tonight, with the perennially pompous POSS leading the field as usual.
unemployment has tripled since 2013. There is a great deal of resentment.
I’m detecting a slow-motion collapse in employment on this side of the country. Those figures from the ABS last month showing a big move to part time and casual jobs tells the story. I know of many businesses who just have staff on call for when the work comes on. They can’t afford to keep the business going and pay idle hands.
Briefly:
The end of the mining boom.
c@tmomma @ #32 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:57 pm
I’m not too sure about Midland (haven’t checked the stats) but expect the job losses would be every bit as bad as in the central/northern precincts. All the way from Yokine to Yanchep – a distance of maybe 50km – unemployment is up. It is not evenly distributed, to be sure, but is very extensive and, imo, getting worse.
Briefly
Yeah I know a truck driver that hasnt had any work for 3 months there in Perth.He was never without work the 18 yrs i lived there.
As opposed to Labor, who are going backwards slowly.
adrian @ #36 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:59 pm
Alliteration!! Awesome and aptly aimed.
Briefly
Theres also been a 10% drop in house prices there. Some houses are worth less than what they were in 2006.
Labor supporters like yourself are, of course, well acquainted with unfounded beliefs.
cupidstunt @ #40 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:03 pm
I know only too well the feelings that go with such losses. The thing is…the blokes I met today had never seen me before, and angry as they were, they still had something to say to Labor. Mainly, I think they want to let us know just how much everything hurts. They have no-one to listen to them, still less who can do anything for them.
By far the most piteous was the single mother – gentle, soft person – who lives in a high-rent dump with three kids and has been waiting for 11 years for a State Housing place. 11 years. She has despair and not much else besides.
The Centrelink stories just make me very angry.
I tell you what – the faketradie thing has really taken off on twitter! There’s pix with bumcracks and send-ups etc that are really taking the mickey out
Like a bit of alliteration in the evening.
Please try harder POSS, there’s a good fellow.
Le Mans is an object lesson – Toyota fell over in the last lap ….
c@tmomma @ #37 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:00 pm
We really do need a good, strong effective and purposeful Labor Government. We need at least two. One in Canberra and one in Perth.
That’s very sad, briefly, and not an isolated case I’m sure.
Don’t think things are much better here in NSW.