Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Briefly,
    Yes, I imagine Yanchep is not faring well. It’s just that little bit too far away and disconnected from the rest of the city and suburbs, and hence where social isolation and dysfunction can fester.

  3. Briefly
    These are the people who drop off the ladder first when any austerity or cut backs occur as well as unemployment kicks in.As Shorten rightly says that living standards are falling and wages are flatlining. Only those high up on the ladder are untouched by the Fibs policies.

  4. My prediction. Labor toast. Shorten toast. Liberal short lived victory. Another nasty 2014 neoliberal budget attempt. Turnbull toast. Dutton or morrison lnp leader. Albo loses next election. Rinse repeat. Greens retain composure throughout. Managing Senate brilliantly as usual. Helping protect us from neoliberal nastiness. Hopefully punters finally wake up and rid us of this neoliberal liblab disasterous experiment.

  6. Please try harder POSS, there’s a good fellow.

    Trust me, if I wasted any less energy on you I’d be violating the conservation laws.

  7. People do realise that Turnbull’s tax cut is really a very narrow form of attempted stimulus. It won’t work because it doesn’t spread wealth quickly and it has no constructive purpose.

  8. Unfortunately too many Wannabee Liberals think they are higher on the ladder than they really are, and if they actually saw where they were on that ladder they would realise that they would be barely above the bottom rung.

  9. <blockquoteThe Piping Shrike ‏@Piping_Shrike 59m59 minutes ago
    That must be the worst major party election ad we've had For A While.

  10. c@tmomma @ #51 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:16 pm

    Briefly,
    Yes, I imagine Yanchep is not faring well. It’s just that little bit too far away and disconnected from the rest of the city and suburbs, and hence where social isolation and dysfunction can fester.

    Yes…very high youth unemployment…

    The thing is…the door-knocking exercise, when a crew are out together and then de-brief at the end, is very powerful I think. The “learning” that occurs is rapid, intense, shared and then passed on to the campaign. It is brilliant.

  12. fess

    I thought the coalition union bullying ad was bad today. But when my daughter and I saw the fake tradie ad, we both similtaneously laughed hysterically!!

  14. ..meanwhile, in the Twittersphere #FakeTradie is trending at No1..

    ..is it the worst Lib campaign ad of all time? Lol 🙂

  15. One way of measuring the success of a society is how it treats the weakest and Australia fails in many regards. How are the unemployed, the mentally ill, the disabled, those fleeing for their lives and babies treated? Life is not about grabbing everything for yourself while treading everyone else underfoot, crushing them and killing them, it surely must be about others not being purely self serving.
    This is a lot of ways is why we see others rising, people have given up on the failed Labor, the failed Liberal, the failed Greens, the failed Democrats, the failed Republicans, the failings of every party. So you get Trump and Xenophon and these unorthodox politicians at least in theory and who can blame those who society, capitalism and democracy has failed for desperately searching for hope among the failures.
    So who is going to help those who have been broken?

  16. cupidstunt @ #53 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:17 pm

    Briefly
    These are the people who drop off the ladder first when any austerity or cut backs occur as well as unemployment kicks in.As Shorten rightly says that living standards are falling and wages are flatlining. Only those high up on the ladder are untouched by the Fibs policies.

    The effects are really very widespread in WA at the moment.

    How will it translate politically? I think it will certainly help Labor. It’s just irrational to think it could help the Liberals or the G’s.

  18. Labor has nothing that will help the unemployed, especially the long-term unemployed. The fiscal balance that Labor’s policies imply for the next four years is virtually identical to that of the Coalition: $88 billion of net federal spending into the private sector over the next four years compared with the Coalition’s $86 billion. Net federal spending is a dollar for dollar addition to the non-government sector’s savings. Aggregate demand won’t increase, which means that employment won’t increase, unless net federal spending increases.

  20. Wannabe liberals is spot on.

    The amount of liberal voting cab driver’s I’ve spoken too is shocking. I think these people are so delusionally aspirational that they exhibit the same signs of a problem gambler. They vote liberal cause winners vote liberals. They lose at most things in this rigged neoliberal game of life. At least voting liberal gives em hope. Like church used to. These morons don’t understand that neoliberalism rately creates wealth, it entrenches it.

  22. Vic I have been cracking up with all the twitter comments on #faketradie

    It shows how creative people are with both words and pix .. in a matter of hours the reaction has totally screwed the Libs’ message in a very funny way

  24. Jenauthor

    Indeed. The twitter comments are reassuring. When initially watching the advert, i thought my reaction and that of my daughter was just our twisted view!

  27. Lee Wool
    My prediction.

    I’m surprised you didn’t predict that the Greens would win 150 seats – that would be about as sensible as everything else you’ve said tonight.

  28. Lee Wool
    Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:17 pm
    My prediction. Labor toast. Shorten toast. Liberal short lived victory. Another nasty 2014 neoliberal budget attempt. Turnbull toast. Dutton or morrison lnp leader. Albo loses next election. Rinse repeat. Greens retain composure throughout. Managing Senate brilliantly as usual. Helping protect us from neoliberal nastiness. Hopefully punters finally wake up and rid us of this neoliberal liblab disasterous experiment.

    ———haha there is was the liblab meme – of course greens know better dont just say they are. and they practice grassroots something. and they have a real reform agenda. and would not become just another big hierarchical party (aren’t they that already or isn;t that what they want to become) — a left trumpist populism, that is barely coherent. we need a new party that is genuinely left not patchwork – look most greens have patchy if best interest in non environmental issues qed

  31. Very curious as to why some posters believe that Greens preferences will not flow as strongly to Labor this time as they did in 2013. I spend a fair bit of time with Greens and I can tell you they are more than disappointed with Turnbull, they’re angry. The mere mention of Turnbull at a Greens event brings on a chorus of jeers. They certainly do not love Shorten but they will preference Labor.

  33. cupidstunt @ #9 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    Briefly
    Yes the Lib primary seems to be stuck at 41 and not moving at all.That seems to be the most believeable figure over the weeks compared with other polls.

    They have been trying fear…not working. There is nothing at all frightening about Bill Shorten. He’s practically fraternal in his geniality.

  35. I may be delusional but not as dellusional as thinking labor’s gonna win this election. Like I said . toast.

    And you know what, who cares who wins. It really doesn’t matter. Unless labor win and break promises and become truly progressive. You can dream.

  41. FFS, can you just piss off, Lee?

    I tolerate all kinds of views here and I certainly appreciate people standing up to the conservative Labor Orthodoxy here but you’re not here to engage. Nothing you have posted has been of any meaningful substance, just “LOL LABOR AND LIBERAL ARE THE SAME. LABOR WILL LOSE! I DON’T CARE LOL LOOK AT ME!!!1!”

    Well there. You’ve gotten some attention. Don’t bask in it all at once.

  43. I would float the idea that the circumstances where Greens prefs may not be as high to ALP would be if disaffected LNP voters are voting Green instead of LNP but still not prepared to pref ALP. But the Green vote has not increased that significantly in the polls that it might be a large number.

  44. Greens voters who pref libs are even more deluded than you labor stooges. The only explanation is that these people are mentally ill or maybe dyslexic when filling out their ballot.

  45. William Bowe
    Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    How come the preference skeptics on this blog never ask if the Greens flow to Labor is likely to remain at 83% now the Liberals are led by Turnbull rather than Abbott?
    I’m sorry if i was wrong,this was the statement I was going by.

  46. Privi, you are correct. Labor will win and so will Windsor. The Greens vote will be down based on the new leaders mishaps. Richard the back flipper on preferences.
    Doing deals with Kroger was not a good look for the green voters.

  47. cupidstunt @ #30 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    Briefly
    Wow thats a big jump in 3 years.What types of jobs have they lost?

    All kinds, cupid…construction, transport, hospitality, retail, engineering, healthcare, metal fabrication, maritime services, mining, machinery dealing and servicing, plant hire…you name it, workers are losing their jobs, firms closing….it’s been grinding on for several years and continues unabated.

  50. Lee Wool
    And you know what, who cares who wins. It really doesn’t matter. Unless labor win and break promises and become truly progressive. You can dream.

    That says it all really. Political arrogance and callousness on display, and yet another example of a Green drawing a circle around themselves and saying anyone else outside that circle is “not progressive”.

    In your worldview, the immediate needs of the poor, the disabled, the sick, the mentally ill, the homeless, the unemployed, and the marginalised, must be sacrificed for the greater cause of “true progressivism”. To hell with what is achievable right now! No, we must pure in our electoral impotence, and hope that one day the foolish voters will wake up and realise that the Greens have all the answers!

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