Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 29
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  1. I think Greens disappointment with the Turnbull/Hunt climate change position Along with Dutton on refugees can not be underestimated, so Green voters would be expected to continue to preference ALP strongly.

  4. @Ctar

    It was on 14 percent as recently as Friday night according to Ipsos. But, as a Green as much as I would like it to be so, I think Ipsos appears to inflate our vote.

  6. “Doing deals with Kroger was not a good look for the green voters.”

    Playing footsies with the cons never ends well. You always come up short and smelling bad.

  7. ICanCU: I would float the idea that the circumstances where Greens prefs may not be as high to ALP would be if disaffected LNP voters are voting Green instead of LNP but still not prepared to pref ALP.

    Doesn’t seem plausible. The Greens are further to the left than ALP; any LNP voter willing to vote Green should also be willing to vote ALP. Unless they’re being irrational, or dogmatic. Though I’m discounting that last one because 1) if they buy into the dogma they’re probably not capable of becoming a disaffected LNP voter to begin with, and 2) on a number of occasions LNP MP’s have basically said ‘if you’re not going to vote LNP then vote Labor instead; don’t bother with third parties’.

    console.log(“is the blog removing script tags at least?”);

  8. I think Newspoll is the best poll to go by. It doesnt seem to have the wild swings in PV/Greens/Others that other polls show.

  9. cupidstunt @ #102 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:59 pm

    Briefly
    Do you think there will be any resurgence there is the next 5 years?

    There’s not likely to be a resurgence in mining investment. But the economy will stabilise and start to grow again. We need to adjust. Focussed public investments in infrastructure, health and education, support for household incomes, a lower currency, measures to improve real wages…these will all help. We have a very high-skilled and outwardly-connected labour force and access to capital of all kinds. We will be ok…but we really have to address social and economic inequality and the grinding hardship to which some are subjected. This will also help a great deal.

  11. Trand at 10:45pm –
    Not sure if this was a serious question, but anyway:

    Re informal voting, drawing a little sketch on my reps ballot paper won’t render a vote informal?

    The answer is no it won’t render a vote informal, provided that the actual vote is clear and valid, and provided it doesn’t identify you (or anyone).

    A simple drawing isn’t a problem. I’d probably steer clear of names (“Joe Bloggs woz ‘ere” is probably enough to render it informal). Actually I wouldn’t do this at all – unless your mission in life is to entertain a random AEC temporary employee or some tired scrutineers there really isn’t any point. No one is going to notice.

  12. a r @ #107 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 12:04 am

    ICanCU: I would float the idea that the circumstances where Greens prefs may not be as high to ALP would be if disaffected LNP voters are voting Green instead of LNP but still not prepared to pref ALP.

    Doesn’t seem plausible. The Greens are further to the left than ALP; any LNP voter willing to vote Green should also be willing to vote ALP. Unless they’re being irrational, or dogmatic. Though I’m discounting that last one because 1) if they buy into the dogma they’re probably not capable of becoming a disaffected LNP voter to begin with, and 2) on a number of occasions LNP MP’s have basically said ‘if you’re not going to vote LNP then vote Labor instead; don’t bother with third parties’.
    console.log(“is the blog removing script tags at least?”);

    G polemics are intended to do two things:

    i) to attract support to the G’s
    ii) to repel support from Labor

    The G’s would like it if the could do both at the same time, though find it difficult to do. The AS issue is one theme that works this way, but it is much-deflated just now.

    If the G’s cannot attract support to their own cohorts, the next best is to repel voters from Labor….which is why they use “Labor=Liberal” language all the time. This helps them keep their own voters in line. It also helps to send their prefs to the LNP.

  13. I see what’s going on here. You labor stooges actually don’t have an issue with greens policy. Your just pissed that they’re supposedly stealing your left flank. Its as shallow as that. Pathetic.

    Regarding preferences, the reason libs will win is that when preferencing, many voters will put down who they like as a personality, as sad as that is. And like it or not, based on appearances, Turnbull is way more palatable than shorten. Only the rusted like shorten. Only the rusted could. Add to that that most swinging voters get their info from corporate media, its over. It’s the Tele that won it.

  14. cupidstunt @ #95 Sunday, June 19, 2016 at 11:54 pm

    William Bowe
    Saturday, June 18, 2016 at 3:29 pm
    How come the preference skeptics on this blog never ask if the Greens flow to Labor is likely to remain at 83% now the Liberals are led by Turnbull rather than Abbott?
    I’m sorry if i was wrong,this was the statement I was going by.

    Hmm, I read William’s question the other way: why do you assume that the 83% preference flow when Abbott was leader in 2013 will continue when the more palatable Turnbull is now the Liberal leader going into the 2016 election?

  15. Not that William was predicting there won’t be the same preference flow – just that it was appropriate to question and should be questioned in the context of estimating other preference flows.

  16. It’s not rocket science that greens attract voters from labor. It’s obvious. It’s also true that unlike labor, when they get em they keep em. Hence green vote fairly stable. The swinging voters lie in the split hair between libs and labs. So why do you persist with this faux green assault? Are you like the abc and so shit scared of the corporate media? Weak.

  17. Apparently Iran does the second most sex changes operations, they do it so homosexuals can live with their partner without living in sin. Weird.

    And campaigning in the Brexit vote has restarted.

    Information that can be gathered when listening to BBC world service.

  18. lee wool @ #113 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 12:20 am

    I see what’s going on here. You labor stooges actually don’t have an issue with greens policy. Your just pissed that they’re supposedly stealing your left flank. Its as shallow as that. Pathetic.

    The G’s are not taking votes from Labor. That racket has outlived its usefulness. The G’s have no themes they can use to attract voters away from Labor. On the contrary, at the moment they are trying to prevent the defection of voters back to Labor…hence the Labor=Liberal language.

    The G’s are losing their ability to be heard. After this election, it will not be the G’s that are the “voice of the dissidents”. It will be NXT.

  21. Lee Wool, I am sure the Greens have a core group of supporters, it is just a lot smaller than that of the two major parties.

  22. Nah. X is a fad. He’s a bottom feeding oportunist. When’s the last time you heard him talk about pokies? It’s a parked vote until something better arrives. More sympomatic of the disillusionment of robots shorten and Turnbull. The greens are the only left wing party. Where else can i go?

  24. Lee Wool
    #122 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 12:45 am
    Nah. X is a fad. He’s a bottom feeding oportunist. When’s the last time you heard him talk about pokies? It’s a parked vote until something better arrives. More sympomatic of the disillusionment of robots shorten and Turnbull. The greens are the only left wing party. Where else can i go?

    He’s a bottom feeding oportunist. – just like Tricky Dicky.

    Where else can i go? – Haven’t enough people here made that plain?

    When you become capable of intelligent debate, you may receive intelligent answers. Until then, go back and feed your three goats.

    Tom.

  25. It’s why us greens are such happy campers. And why you labs are so goddamn paranoid and depressed. Your getting screwed from everywhere. Must be hard to keep track of. I guess it’s why you love William and flock here. He tries to help make sense of your helplessness. What I love is how you guys spin the polls as opposed to your msm enemies. I suspect they are right and you wrong. Unless you want to roll out the illuminati conspiracies…

  27. Sensible debate with a party so paranoid it can’t even form a coherent narrative. The party of the worker can’t even guarantee to protect penalty rates ffs! Your party is not in the frame of mind to debate anything sensibly.

  32. Lost my internet feed for a couple of hours, thanks Mal, just checked out Murdock Moron rags, they seem to be in panic mode.

  34. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/rolling-poll-roundup-reachtel-vs-rest.html
    Rolling Poll Roundup: ReachTEL vs The Rest?
    2PP now 50.7 to Coalition (80-65-5) following Newspoll.

    I agree with the comment about Labor being too long in the markets. There are too many significant uncertainties, and more turn up every time you see another rosy poll for NXT. On balance evidence points to a Coalition win and perhaps even a surprisingly easy one, but not with that level of confidence.

  35. Lee Wool
    Monday, June 20, 2016 at 1:05 am
    Red bull screwed it again. I’m outta here……

    Thank heavens for small mercies permanently , I Assume!

  38. Well I think the internal polling by the LNP must be real bad. Turnbull has thrown the game away with his never ever privatise Medicare. Confirmation that Mr Shorten is right with saying Labor’s issues are biting.

    That plus this morning ABC News 24 is saying some conservatives are questioning the polling because of new methodology. You don’t let that leak to the public unless you think your polling is really bad.

  39. Oops sorry I forgot to say good morning 🙂

    I think Murdoch has seen the writing on the wall. He knows the LNP can’t win so to avoid his hate of a minority government he is promoting Labor unity.

    Labor rivals unite in push for poll victory
    TWO of Labor’s great modern-day feuds appear consigned to the memory banks – at least publicly- with Julia Gillard joining Bob Hawke and Paul Keating in the audience as Bill Shorten formally launched his election campaign.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/labor-rivals-bill-shorten-and-julia-gillard-unite-in-push-for-poll-victory/news-story/5fbdf7930c57177369e149a631b27848&memtype=anonymous

    If you want to see the whole article you will have to do the google trick.

  41. WP

    Yes thats what I have been basing my guess about preference flows on. The coverage and what we are hearing from the LNP, ALP and Greens seems to confirm this. I have not included NXT because they are the wild card.

  43. WP

    As for Trump and the GOP this is real bad. Unless its just a one day wonder rumour it will depress voter turnout. Secretary Clinton is already leading in the polls their only worry is about turnout so the GOP internal revolt will help dispel that worry

    KKeneally: Dump Trump? Paul Ryan leaves door open to Republican convention revolt | US news | The Guardian https://t.co/93rrtogQuF

  44. Ye gods! Trump is flaming out! He’s advocated profiling EVERY Muslim in America overnight in an interview!!!

    That will really help calm the situation down. Not.

  45. A severe case of pants wetting at Daily TurdBurgler HQ discovering an obscure ALP candidate with islamic terrorist links. Gotcha! It’s The Turd Wot Won It!

    On a more serious note, Turnbull with Abbott pal Baird in tow about to carpet bomb Sydney’s West with moolah. But the jilted TeamAbbott crew are still aniping away. This from Andrew Bolt who is suggesting that Shorten could be better than the Lying Waffle..

    [CONSERVATIVES must now admit it – whatever we think of that backstabbing Leftist Malcolm Turnbull, Labor would be worse… or would it? asks Andrew Bolt.]

  46. guytaur @ #138 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:10 am

    Well I think the internal polling by the LNP must be real bad. Turnbull has thrown the game away with his never ever privatise Medicare. Confirmation that Mr Shorten is right with saying Labor’s issues are biting.
    That plus this morning ABC News 24 is saying some conservatives are questioning the polling because of new methodology. You don’t let that leak to the public unless you think your polling is really bad.

    Turnbull must be aware that the Medicare messages are registering with loosely attached Lib voters. However, when he says “We will not privatise….” most listeners will likely hear the opposite and intuit his statement as a reinforcement of the Labor message. Voters absolutely do not trust promises made by politicians. Not at all. The currency has been totally debased. Turnbot has recanted from so many of his previously-held positions that his “promises” will be taken to be lies by very many voters. They must be worried to even think of trying to speak on this theme.

    When it comes to the polls, the Liberals are trying to find ways to talk up their popularity. They will attempt to dismiss anything that suggests they could be in trouble…trouble being a PV in the very low 40’s, for sure.

    The Lib PV @ 41% will probably not be enough to hold a majority, especially when the NXT vote, @ 4%, will split at least 60/40 against them. If NXT can win a couple of seats from the Liberals, the split will be more like 4:1 against them. As well, the balance of the “other” vote is mostly negative for the Libs.

    This election is shaping up as a nightmare for the LNP. They will at best be in a minority in the next Parliament and have to depend on conservative independents – independents who will know their best chance of improving their standing will be to take votes away from the LNP and who will align themselves with Labor on policy if not on confidence.

    Luckily, the G’s will likely not have much of a role, which will also favour Labor as time goes along.

  47. Matt31 @ 81,

    Very curious as to why some posters believe that Greens preferences will not flow as strongly to Labor this time as they did in 2013.

    …’cos the G’s campaign against Labor dido/yiyo…they continually try to dissuade voters from supporting Labor…this is the staple component of their campaigning…

  48. briefly

    Other than your hate against the Greens I agree with your analysis.

    Good to see the Green Eyed Monster has not totally destroyed your objectivity.

  49. Now is the time for all brothers and sisters on the left to unite to fight the foul foe.
    In Game of Thrones winter may be coming but in the land of Oz winter is here.

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