With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.
The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.
warrenpeace @ #140 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:24 am
That was then. PUP will not feature. G-voters will not be marking prefs against Abbott..and G-messages have been aimed at reducing the prefs going to Labor.
On the other hand, Labor have assigned their #2 prefs to the G’s everywhere. This says to G-voters…”We love you…please love us back.” This will likely hold good, at least for this election. Professional G’s, who hate Labor, must be wanting to throw up.
OK. So I am off now (on the bus because my car broke down! : ( ) to do my bit at the Pre Poll and hand out HTVs for a few hours. Will give a SitRep when I return. Though I have been reliably informed that the Liberals are swarming voters by forming a flying wedge around them as they approach the polling place, which attempts to make the poor voter impenetrable to Labor volunteers. They then guide them to the Liberal candidate who flicks the switch to ‘Smarm’. This lasts until they get to 6M away from the door.
guytaur @ #148 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:40 am
The G’s are becoming the schizo party of Australian politics. They love Labor/they hate Labor. Their messages are both for and against Labor. Their “totem” is increasingly bizarre, contradictory and ambiguous. No wonder their vote is stagnating or falling.
I am seeing a lot of tweets about this. If true thats going to cost the LNP big time being caught out using a fake.
TheMurdochTimes: The contempt Turnbull Coalition have for Australian workers laid bare. Dishing up #FakeTradie who loves Big Banks https://t.co/wfJoidoarY
Today’s SmearStralian shouldnbe framed, and preserved for future political science and media students as the epitomy of blatant barracking for one side of politics.
Under the shrieking banner of “Shorten Bets on Politics of Fear” as the takeaway from the Labor launch yesterday, the congaline of commentators divide up each of the ALP policy areas (seemingly orchestrated? Yeah, Nah.) and lambast away.
The Smear editorial sums the Shorten approach up as ‘a return to Gillard’.
c@tmomma @ #152 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:52 am
Good luck C@t….the Liberals are thieves…
Cat
Have a good day
briefly
No matter how you ramp up your hate on the Greens it does not make what you say true. You are as much of a troll as others when you go off with your Green hate like that .
sprocket_ @ #155 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:53 am
You have a strong stomach, Sprocket….the Oz is not for me!
The Liberals ‘fake tradie’ has got his own twitter feed now
@realfaketradie Look lads. I’m just a knock around bloke who likes a beer, a punt and a diversified stock portfolio. Go easy! #FakeTradie
His string of tweets, however,,displays more Cockney than Ocker – so I am calling fraud
guytaur @ #158 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:55 am
lol
lol
lol
Just have a look at the rubbish posted here yesterday….all day/all night by G-voices. Their posts are pure Labor-baiting and Labor-bashing. There’s page after page of anti-Labor campaigning by G-names. This is all aimed at dissuading support for Labor.
Do not think there is a hate of Greens here – just a reaction to trolling and righteous I am right every one else is wrong posting.
Guytaur I am not referring to you as your posts have more balance than the recent one I will not mention, I do not believe has been a over reaction here.
scoutdog @ #162 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:01 am
Well said Scout -:)
Scout
I know the poster to whom you are referring. However those posts are no worse than those of those made by Labor posters about the Greens.
For instance RDN has stated very strongly that he does not see how any Green could vote for the LNP. The leader of the party is as professional as you can get. So therefore any claim the Green professionals are campaigning for the LNP are pure fiction.
Good to see the Liberal Party Dirt Unit is still around, feeding their running dogs in NewsCorpse. What else to they have up their sleeve?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-20/labor-candidate-quits-after-islamic-extremism-links-criticism/7524718
Labor’s candidate for the New South Wales seat of Farrer has stepped down following reports linking him to Islamic extremism.
News Limited has reported that Christian Kunde is friends with Uthman Badar, the spokesman for Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir.
The article also claimed Mr Kunde likened homosexuality to incest during a lecture at Sydney University.
Mr Kunde denied both claims when he spoke to John Cleary on ABC local radio this morning.
“It would be akin to you reciting Leviticus on air in a one-hour discussion about the topic, and then your view being taken as exactly verbatim what happens to be in Leviticus,” Mr Kunde said.
He said he was not homophobic nor part of Hizb ut-Tahrir, but stepped down so the matter would not distract from Labor’s campaign.
“It was my choice to step aside,” he said.
“I think that it’s important that I did that so that the conversation won’t get bogged down in this particular matter.”
Mr Kunde said his friendship with Mr Badar was being used to misrepresent him.
Sprocket_ – Monday, June 20, 2016 at 6:59 am
You are calling ‘fraud’ on a parody account? That’s kinda the point.
guytaur @ #164 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:05 am
This is not my claim. The claim is the G’s campaign against Labor. This is indubitably correct.
briefly
All your posts make out the Greens are campaigning exclusively against Labor. They are not they are campaigning for primary votes for themselves.
This means of course they attack Labor. However thats not what you have been saying day after day after day post after post after boring as batshit post.
Guytaur move on, this Labor horrible Green horrible debate is more than tedious
For those from other states who don’t get to enjoy the TurdBurgler’s modus operandi, here is today’s cover
Scout
Totally agree. Exactly my point to briefly. You will note I have shut up about it and left it alone.
However every so often I will come back and remind briefly facts count. Repetition of fiction is boring.
Thats it for me on this subject for now.
guytaur @ #168 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:13 am
The G’s are destroying the anti-LNP vote by their anti-Labor messaging. Presumably they are aware of this, meaning it’s reasonable to conclude they are doing so quite deliberately. They state openly that their intention is to prevent Labor from forming a Government in their own right. This is a quintessential anti-Labor campaign. It’s their staple game these days.
briefly
Fiction you are convincing no one who does not already agree. Now lets get back to the main game. Defeating the LNP
I’m in Tassy and would LOVE NiKolic to get booted, he was a numbers man for Abbott. He is up there with Abetz with my ‘gee they make me embarrassed to be Tasmanian’
His seat (Bass) has not been classified as marginal yet I will be happy when it does!
Any party “swarming” around me at a polling place would get short shrift from me in the polling booth
Scout
What is marginal and what is not is a guessing game. That fall in the LNP primary vote changes everything to a lottery as far as results go. I think we will not see which way its going until the last few days of the campaign.
This is why I think Labor will win outright. I can’t see the LNP keeping ahead by not campaigning or whatever excuse the MSM comes up with next.
The truth is since the last election there is a swing against the LNP happening its just we don’t know where.
All we do know is published seat by seat polling confirms that trend and is not good news for the LNP.
guytaur @ #171 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:18 am
I don’t post here simply to amuse you, guytaur. You may be bored. I couldn’t care less. You are a G-apologist.
I spent the weekend doorknocking Labor districts. The people I met would benefit very greatly from the election of strong Labor governments both in Canberra and in Perth. The G’s, mockingly, self-righteously, contemptibly set out to thwart this. I will speak against them. Make no mistake. I am utterly sickened by their hypocrisy, their sanctimony and their acrimony.
briefly
I have said my piece your reply does not convince me nor does your labelling.
I’d like to ask a dumb question. OK, another one.
If, in the NSW Senate election, I just vote 1 Labor above the line, does my vote count for less than if I numbered 6 seats or more?
If, instead, I only vote Labor 1, Greens 2, does my vote count for less than if I numbered 6 seats or more?
If, instead, I only vote Labor 1, Greens 2, NXT 3, does my vote count for less than if I numbered 6 seats or more?
Is there any difference between the options listed?
Thanks.
don @ #179 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:31 am
Your vote will only carry as far as the squares you’ve numbered.
guytaur @ #178 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:29 am
I’m not trying to convince you of anything.
Don
If you vote 1 only your vote exhausts. This means if your vote comes up in a close contest where Labor preference flows decide the seat your wishes will not be shown as you have exhausted your vote at one.
The more boxes you check the more your vote gets counted in preference counts that decide the seat. However going over 6 above the line will mean that the vote must be awfully close coming down to a 100 or so less votes
“More to the point, the ALP can definitely win with 36.”
ALP figures have said they can’t win unless the primary vote is atleast 38-39%. Labor didn’t even get a majority when the vote was 37.99% in 2010.
briefly
Then stop the repetition. Let us talk about preference flows as preference flows determining the outcome of seats as voting intention without giving your opinion on Green motives according to you.
‘The truth is since the last election there is a swing against the LNP happening its just we don’t know where.’
Yep I hope that is the case Guytaur, Nikolic has some campaigning hard against him and is known for blocking anyone on social media who disagrees with him (a facebook page has started I was blocked by Nikolic).
It is this agree with me — if you do not you do not exist weird stuff
Scout
There has been a similar blocked by Bishop hashtag for Julie Bishop. Seen as a badge of honour.
I wear it proudly
guytaur @ #184 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:37 am
The basic point is….you are not my intended reader. I go not expect to persuade you of anything. You are a campaigner for another viewpoint. You should stop trying to tell me what to post. I don’t trouble myself with telling you what to post. Why would I?
You basically want to suppress the line of reasoning that I’ve been advancing. Of course, I’m not going to respond to that. My argument is correct even though it’s unpopular. I will make it whenever I feel like it.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny praise, then dismisses Shorten’s launch speech.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-bill-shortens-best-shot-but-will-it-be-enough-20160619-gpmmyv.html
Fairly aptly Michael Gordon described it as a three quarter time speech. Will it be enough to get him over the line?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/federal-election-2016-will-bill-shortens-impassioned-threequarter-time-address-get-him-over-the-line-20160619-gpmrbo.html
Pontificating Paul Kelly writes that negatives are keeping Labor’s fight alive. Google.
/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-keeps-fight-alive-with-negatives/news-story/027f40bb30ec258287358d44b098ff45
Here’s Michelle Grattan on the Labor launch.
https://theconversation.com/shorten-seeks-to-keep-alive-hope-of-a-labor-win-61266
Quentin Dempster on how Shorten wedged Turnbull with Medicare.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/19/election-medicare-fight/
As much as I would love to see all students finishing high school with Y12 maths and science as Turnbull wants to make compulsory I can’t see it being practical or suitable for many of them.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-make-maths-and-science-compulsory-20160619-gpmobe.html
With only two weeks to go “View from the Street” wonders who will be the one to stuff it up.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-election-2016-whos-about-to-stuff-it-all-up-20160619-gpmomc.html
Phil Coorey writes on what awaits both leaders after the election – and it’s not good for Turnbull. Google.
/news/politics/turnbull-and-shorten-both-have-reason-to-watch-their-backs-20160616-gpkuax
Banking Royal Commission anyone?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/nab-using-veda-to-track-disloyal-business-customers-going-to-rival-banks-20160617-gplh6h.html
What a Brexit could men for us.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/06/19/fallout-brexit-storm-swamp-australia/
Paul Ryan leaves the door open for Republican revolt to deny Trump the nomination. Stand by for fireworks.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/paul-ryan-donald-trump-republican-convention
Activists in Wentworth get up to mischief with Turnbull’s posters.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/19/wentworth-activists-getup-to-mischief-with-malcolm-tunbulls-election-posters
Don
Yes a big difference.
If you vote just 1, then your vote can ONLY go to the ALP. If the ALP is just below a quota, then it wil not matter but if the ALP is above a quota but not strong enoug to get to the next quota, then your vote will not be distributed to the second preference. This will reduce the quota slightly for the other candidates and therefore make it a little easier for minor parties, of whatever flavour – One Nation, ALA etc.
You are best off allocating all your preferences until you get to the point that you cannot choose between two horrible choices or have insufficient information to make a choice. There are lots of minor parties that would be preferable to the Liberals or to other horrible minors such as ALA or the ruddy LDP.
Section 2 . . .
Karma?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/ohio-gun-shop-owner-fatally-shot-concealed-carry-class
Bullying within the ranks of surgeons.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/bullying-and-collateral-damage-the-case-of-dr-emery,9119
Will the US Supreme Court stand up and support some bans on assault weapons?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/19/supreme-court-may-take-action-on-state-assault-weapon-bans/
Amanda Vanstone has a big spit over the Greens.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/richard-di-natale-a-green-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-20160617-gplkea.html
Baird’s expensive privatisation by stealth,
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/150-million-consulting-bill-gets-results-state-government-says-20160618-gpmgeu.html
Footy Show troglodytes at play.
http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/we-cant-let-the-misogynist-banter-of-eddie-mcguire-slip-past-20160619-gpmmyk.html
And the AFL gets slammed for its response.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/eddie-mcguire-and-caroline-wilson-afl-lacks-guts-on-response-to-ice-pool-gibe-20160619-gpmvpr.html
All power to governments going after these parasites!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/narcissistic-surgeons-charge-cancer-patients-exorbitant-outofpocket-costs-without-disclosing-alternatives-20160618-gpmebg.html
Now Trump goes for more racial profiling in the US.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-the-us-should-consider-racial-profiling-20160619-gpmw2b.html
Tim Dick looks at overseas political turmoil and how it might affect us.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tim-dick-lessons-for-australia-in-overseas-political-turmoil-20160617-gply4u.html
Section 3 . . .
A very good examination of the apparent relationship of religion to terrorism.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/religions-wicked-neighbour-20160617-gplihb.html
Why emotions blind us to science and facts.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-emotions-blind-us-to-science-and-facts-20160617-gpldx6.html
Metcash is shining while Woolworths is being shunned by investors.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/metcash-shines-while-investors-mull-woolies-20160619-gpmo3k.html
Ireland and Apple brace for the worst as the taxation endgame nears. Bring it on!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/ireland-and-apple-brace-for-the-worst-as-tax-endgame-nears-20160618-gpmg5c.html
briefly
My basic point is no one who comes to this blog is in any doubt as to your fictional views.
Repeating them time after time after time after time after time after time after time after time is boring as batshit.
Yes I say that with the knowledge that repeating my opinion on Labor’s chances of winning could get boring too. However I don’t think I say that with every post or second post.
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox at an interfaith gathering.
Pat Campbell at the naming convention.
Mark David has Turnbull as a standup comedian.
And he has Turnbull reflecting on broadband progress.
David Rowe at the Labor launch.
And he takes on Eddie McGuire’s misogynistic comments.
Mark Knight and the Labor launch.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b56dd2ba9d8b06964ea14ecdd067b1da?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
BK
Good Morning and thank you for another great Dawn Patrol 🙂
guytaur @ #182 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:35 am
But there are 12 Labor candidates and only 12 senate places from NSW.
Doesn’t my vote mean that there is a vote for each of those 12, in the 1 Labor only option?
Guytaur
I have figured it out now, thanks to BK
Briefly is Amanada Vanstone or at least her ghost writer.
Don
There is a reason the AEC is advising to vote a minimum of six. I suggest you take the expert advice and vote at least six to minimise any unintended consequences.
guytaur @ #198 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 7:51 am
I intend to, but that is not my point. I want to understand how the system works, and it is patently obvious that I don’t. Any help gratefully received.
Don
Sorry I should have added thats the best advice I can give.