Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

  1. I’m assuming it’s taking 2013 preference flows. What sort of Lib and other preferences distribution are we looking at?

    Possibly – if so, the Greens get 32.6% of Liberal preferences and 57.6% of everybody else’s.

  2. president of the solipsist society @ #1400 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 1:22 am

    they looked somewhat surprised so I explained my views. They were pleased. Very pleased. The message is that Labor can strengthen its credit with voters – it can attract new voters across the divide – by resisting the Gs.

    All two of them.

    lol

    I think voters matter. They have families and friends; are curious about political expression; are obviously intelligent and observant. I learned from them, as I do from nearly every voter I’m fortunate enough to meet.

  3. I respected Bob Brown and there are a couple of Greens senators at least who do good work in the parliament that I may give some prominence to below the line. But I am not convinced about Di Natale. Just has those beady eyes Maxwell Smart talked about. Well it is not jut that – but it encapsulates it.

  4. Turnbull was crook but even so if he thought he was in front one would expect to have seen a little more confidence, vision, something positive. But there was only “believe me!” a few times amid generally defensive waffle.

  5. After 4 goes at logging in, finally am.

    Was going to say enjoy being in Greek islands as you guys cheer me up.
    Looks as though talking to myself now:smile:

    Anyway off to next island serifos tomorrow.

    At moment 8pm here temperature is 35c

  6. Hi Mari,

    I flew over Crete yesterday, and could make out Milos and Kimilos, but not Serifos. I’m in Genova now, where it’s clear skys and a very pleasant 21 at 10pm.

    It feels a world away from the nonsense of Aus politics, particularly as the conference session I went to today was all about methods for including really large proportions of renewable generation into power systems.

    Plus you can get a cafe doppio and almonde croissant for 3 euro. Remind me why I live in Sydney?

  7. And right on cue, now that the Coalition have hurriedly modified their stance wrt Medicare, The Financial Revue and The Australian, have trained their cannons on Labor ‘for running a misleading scare campaign about Medicare Privatisation’.

    A 5 minutes to midnight change to Coalition policy will not be believed.

    ‘Fool me once,
    Shame on you.
    Fool me twice,
    Shame on me.’

    People won’t be fooled again.

    “No Cuts to Health.
    No Cuts to Education.
    No Cuts to the ABC or SBS.”

    This co-ordinated attack by the Coalition of the Liberal Party and the Business media is just too cute by half. People will smell a rat.

    Also, Marius Benson has done some digging on the accounting firm who did the ‘research’ which is also splashed across the newspapers today wrt Labor’s Negative Gearing policy.

    Take it with a grain of salt. They are a crew of accountants who specialise in tax matters for High Net Worth Individuals and Doctors.

    Just another Hockeyesque Liberal stunt. This time choosing not fellow travellers from WA but Queensland.

    If I were Labor hardheads I’d be checking their links to the Liberal Party or LNP. I’m sure they wouldn’t have to try too hard. Just scratch the surface.

    Well, off to do some more Pre Polling. : )

  8. fulvio sammut @ #1405 Tuesday, June 21, 2016 at 1:33 am

    Briefly, how well do you think the tin soldier is travelling in Hasluck?

    Luke Simpkins/ Cowan….he seemed very uncertain and ill-at-ease to me; spending lots of money on the campaign; looked unconvincing….basic problem is he’s just nowhere near as bright in any sense as Anne.

    Ken Wyatt/Hasluck….very nice bloke, Ken…will battle to hold on, I think. The issues that register in Cowan will be even more intensely felt in Hasluck…I doubt he has the campaign skills to fend off Bill Leadbetter…has been spending lots, of course

  9. What does this mean anyway!?!

    “I’m saying to all Australians unequivocally, as PM, that no part of Medicare that is delivered by Government today will be delivered in any, by anyone else in the future,” Mr Turnbull said.

    “We will modernise it but we will do so within government.”

    Public/Private partnerships in Health delivery?

    Not selling off functions but outsourcing them to Private Providers?

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/qa-malcolm-turnbull-accuses-tony-jones-of-being-a-very-good-spokesman-for-labor-20160620-gpnqep.html#ixzz4C9bKW6Mo

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