BludgerTrack is now updated with all of the federal polling published over the past few days, results of which are displayed at the bottom of this post. As has been the case since at least the start of the campaign period, the tracker is resolute in recording an effective dead heat on two-party preferred, with the seat projection continuing to point towards a slender absolute majority for the Coalition. The latest addition to the aggregate is the weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate, which echoes BludgerTrack in coming in at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This follows a two-point movement the previous week that turned a 51-49 Coalition deficit into a 51-49 Coalition lead. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 41%, Labor is up one to 36%, the Greens are up one to 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4%.
Further questions offer some encouragement for Bill Shorten with respect to perceptions of the two leaders during the campaign, although I wonder how good respondents are at isolating that period specifically. The results find 20% saying they have become more favourable towards Shorten versus 21% for less favourable, but these are much better than Malcolm Turnbull’s respective figures of 7% and 33%. Another dose of Essential’s “party trust to handle issues” records a big drop in the Coalition’s lead on managing the economy since a month ago, down from 20% to 12%, with most other measures remaining fairly stable. An occasional question on climate change records a four point drop since March in those attributing it to human activity to 59%, and a one point increase in those favouring the alternative option of it being “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” to 28%. Most of the survey period was before large parts of Sydney’s northern beaches crumbled into the sea. Further questions confirm the impression that the electorate has been less than fully switched on during the first half of the campaign marathon, with only 14% claiming to have shown a lot of interest in the campaign, compared with 39% for some interest, 27% for very little interest and 18% for no interest.
Federal election bits and pieces:
• Labor’s candidate in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Evan Hughes, has provided Fairfax with results of a ReachTEL poll he commissioned showing a 10% swing against Turnbull, reducing his margin from 18% to 8%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 626.
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Labor optimism about the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia and Herbert is not matched for the state’s capital. The northern suburbs seat of Petrie, held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%, is identified as a seat where Labor is falling short. A similar prognosis was offered in my own paywalled article in Crikey on Thursday.
• More of my words of wisdom on the campaign can be found on a podcast for The Conversation, and in a review of northern Tasmania’s flood-stricken marginal seats in a paywalled Crikey article yesterday.
• Mark the Ballot tracks Sportsbet’s win probabilities for all 150 electorates to the start of the campaign. Sportsbet has substantially revised its odds over the course of the campaign in favour of the Liberals in Banks, Hindmarsh and Lyons, the Liberal National Party in Leichhardt, the Greens in Batman, Labor in Cowan, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.
• Fairfax reports the Victorian Liberal Party’s administration committee discussed, but ultimately decided against, disendorsing McEwen candidate Chris Jermyn following his struggles before the news cameras as he gatecrashed a Bill Shorten event in Sunbury last weekend.
• An alleged promise by South Australian property developer Roostam Sadri to donate $500,000 to the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the top position on its South Australian Senate ticket has been referred to police by the Australian Electoral Commission, as reported yesterday by Josh Taylor of Crikey. This followed last week’s publication by Fairfax of an apparent written agreement to that effect. Sadri denies having paid such an amount, or that there was ever a “formal agreement”. The section of the Electoral Act pertaining to bribery offences provides, with helpful exactitude, that “a person shall not ask for, receive or obtain, or offer or agree to ask for, or receive or obtain, any property or benefit of any kind, whether for the same or any other person, on an understanding that the order in which the names of candidates nominated for election to the Senate whose names are included in a group in accordance with section 168 appear on a ballot paper will, in any manner, be influenced or affected”. Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland’s TC Beirne School of Law notes that Section 362 of the Act states that candidates forfeit their seats if involved in bribery, and that this requires only the civil rather than the criminal standard of proof. This could equally apply to David Leyonhjelm’s bid for re-election in New South Wales as to Roostam Sadri’s run in South Australia, if the Fairfax report’s assertion that Leyonhjelm “considered entering” an agreement was substantiated.
Further afield:
• The Northern Territory News offers a reminder that a territory election looms on August 27, and the Northern Territory News offers a helpful reminder with a Mediareach poll of 400 respondents in the Alice Springs electorates of Araluen and Braitling. The pollster appears to have failed to ask a follow-up question to prompt the 23% undecided, rendering it of little value, but it’s presumably instructive that less than 40% of decided respondents said they would vote for the Country Liberal Party, compared with 68% at the 2012 election.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the NSW Electoral Commission is investigating allegations of vote-rigging during Labor’s American primary-style “community preselection” process for the seat of Ballina ahead of last year’s state election. It is alleged that a party official used details on enrolled voters from the party’s database to fraudulently vote on their behalf during the online ballot, although the unnamed official is quoted saying he had merely “played along” when asked to do so by persons unidentified. The proposed beneficiary was the favoured candidate of head office and the ultimate victor in the preselection, Paul Spooner, with no suggestion that Spooner himself was involved. The formerly Nationals-held seat went on to be won by the Greens.
Can anyone tell me why the Marijuana (HEMP) Party and the Australian Sex Party are grouped together in S on the WA Senate paper?
It seems we can safely ignore all the boxes on the right hand side of the WA Senate paper, and a couple on the left. Actually, looking at the ticket, it might be hard to find six boxes above the line to number. I might need to vote below the line.
How is Oakshotte preferencing?
BC
Mr Green was saying something about both getting their logos together but, because there is a larger number of candidates the two together look much bigger than the two separately.
I don’t understand it.
I did get the chortle about the joint ticket.
“One source has told AFR Weekend that internal polling has Mr Windsor’s primary vote at just over 30 per cent, which is enough to topple the Deputy Prime Minister if preferences go Mr Windsor’s way.”
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-tony-windsor-could-beat-barnaby-joyce-on-labor-preferences-20160610-gpg92i
Oh, and for Queenslanders – the column R people are the Voice of Mulitcultural Australia Party which didn’t get registered in time. See https://salvador-rivas.squarespace.com/about/ The founder, Sal Rivas, says he’s been an ALP member and still has a lot of friends in the ALP but wanted a party that is focussed on representing the many ethnicities in the country. (The unkind might suggest that was Plan B after not getting ALP preselection, but I don’t believe in leaping to unkind conclusions. Well, not always.)
What were those complaints about not getting enough high scoring students to enter professions like school teaching? Where does their starting salary put them vis a vis HELP repayments I wonder…
Study to be a marketing professional earn $80k+ p.a. within 3 years, HELP payed off in 6.
Study to be a teacher and earn $55k p.a. within 3 years and payoff your HELP debt in 12.
All the while being unable to save for a place to live.
Policy fail.
Pity, one of the above activities actually adds value to society too…
The critics can’t have it both ways. Either Labor is on a spendathon, or they’re reining in the largesse. But I suppose to yer average RWNJ, Labor can’t do anything right.
Beware of voting Donkey you might elect an Ass.
B.C.
You’ve obviously never been to the 60’s.
Oh Trog, ho ho ho!
Could Elizabeth Warren become Vice-President? I hope so.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/09/elizabeth-warren-endorses-hillary-clinton-running-mate?CMP=share_btn_tw
Lizzie – the donkey vote is worth 0.5 to 1% in HOR and probably about 0.4 to 0.5% in Senate. It is generally lower in more areas/seats with higher education/more affluent/less English as first language and also probably a bit less in seats that are hotly contested. It used to be worth a lot more before party names appeared on ballot papers. With party logos on ballot papers as well this time it will be interesting to see any affect- may be a minor shift to parties with a “popular” logo.
Trog Sorrenson Friday, June 10, 2016 at 5:09 pm
That made me smile. Actually, I was born in the 60’s.
Wakefield
Thanks. The Victorian Senate paper looks a minefield, but I do hope that Mr D Hinch doesn’t get up.
B.C.
The 70’s were good too.
At least until The Village People.
Without knowing any on the ground details, I’d say that Oakeshott has a very good chance in Cowper. Labor very nearly won Cowper in 2007 (on the old boundaries), so Coffs Harbour would definitely be a friendly and vote-rich area for a non-Coalition candidate to campaign in, while Port Macquarie was Oakeshott’s main stronghold.
You need at least 2 to form a group and they’ve either decided to combine resources or don’t have many suitable candidates. So probably an agreement.
Somebody mentioned Gilmore as Reachtels seat of the week.Held at the moment 53-47 to Libs.The way Riley is going on about it there must be a massive swing.
And otherwise they’ll each can only appear BTL.
The impact of the donkey vote has been estimated at between 1 and 2%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donkey_vote#Manifestation_in_compulsory_preferential_voting_systems
Some Friday fun from David Rowe and the Tax Zombies.
FFS! If my homeland of Tasmania wasn’t real, no fiction writer would ever be able to invent it.
Case in point.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/cloud-seeding-carried-out-over-tasmanian-catchment-before-floods/7499226
Wakefield, talking of logos, some desaign “expert” said they were all terrible and who the heck was that bloke with the beard and glasses? I expect 3-5% of Victorians will say “there’s that Ricky bloke – a bit of a bogan but lots of common sense” and vote for him. He’s the only one with the sense to basically put his photo on the ballot paper, as they do in some countries with lower literacy.
I’m guessing ReachTel’s “seat of the week” is Macarthur. I live in that seat, and I got polled by them last night, with the candidates referred to by name.
From what little I have seen on the media, Labor’s budget proposals have raised fewer waves than a duck pond with gavel thrown in it. The ABC item ranks about 6 – 7 and not much elsewhere. Not sure if this is good or bad news.
Trog, until Dylan got religion and punk broke out…
David Leyonhjelm must have scored not a donkey, but an elephant, in 2013, with first position on the ballot paper and “Liberal” in his party’s name.
Cupidstunt – I stand by my prediction of a few weeks ago that Regional NSW could swing away from the Coalition more than the Sydney metropolitan area – meaning Labor could pick up seats like Page, Eden-Monaro, Robertson, and Gilmore, while Windsor and Oakeshott stand a good chance in New England and Cowper respectively.
I reckon we might even see something happen in Calare, which contains Bathurst and Lithgow (areas strong for Labor), as well as Orange and surrounding country areas. There are council mergers happening all through this area. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big swing to Labor (but not enough to win it).
[Trog, until Dylan got religion and punk broke out…]
You got a problem with punk?
BK
I like the Costello zombie.
“The injunction has been extended until June 22 to allow the CFA and VFBV engage in private discussions about the pay deal.
The court has ordered the CFA to meet with volunteers at its headquarters to consult about the EBA on June 20, two days before the next court date.
In an affidavit before the Supreme Court lawyer Timothy Robinson, acting for the VFBV, said he was repeatedly denied access to the negotiations before Fair Work Commissioner Julius Roe.
He claims that on May 20 he received a letter from the CFA saying that negotiations were restricted to between them and the firefighters’ union.
Mr Robinson, from Robinson Gill law firm, alleges that three days later the union wrote to the Commission, claiming the VFBV were intruding on the enterprise bargaining agreement discussions.
“On the same day Commissioner Roe denied the VFBV’s request to participate in the conferences without giving any reason,” he claims in court documents.
Mr Robinson claims that on Wednesday VFBV CEO Andrew Ford received a letter from Mr Andrews and Ms Garrett advising they would set up a meeting to inform them of the developments in the negotiations.
It’s claimed lawyers for the VFBV urgently requested Mr Andrews and Ms Garrett schedule a meeting for negotiations but neither replied.
In granting the temporary reprieve, Justice McDonald said he was satisfied there was a serious question to be tried as to whether or not the volunteer charter was breached.”
Simon, I liked the sentiments of some of the rebellious songs but most of the buggers couldn’t play or sing in tune – and some of them made a virtue of it.
No, they did Macarthur three weeks ago. A lot of the ReachTEL polling people are encountering is being done for private clients.
Daily Telegraph John Adams says if LNP reelected Turnbull will not last full term on panel of the Drum
Trog
Re the Rowe cartoon, what is that in Arfur’s mouth? A Parakeelia?
Guytaur #1585 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 5:47 pm
believe that win or lose Iurnbull’s hesding for a maelstrom
I’m just back home after being out all day, so apologies if I’ve doubled up on anything already said by others.
The ballot positions in SA – to quote PVO: WOW!
The Libs have been totally screwed by the draw.
The Greens get top of the ticket in Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
Labor is top of the ticket in Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin and Mayo.
NXT is top of the ticket in Barker, Boothby, Sturt and Wakefield.
Liberal is top of the ticket precisely NOWHERE.
Even in the Senate they sit behind every rival. The only silver lining they gave is they’re placed before the Liberal Democrats.
They must be spitting chips, especially as they were in the firing line already with the emergence of NXT.
Can’t wait for July 2. It’s going to be very interesting down this way.
WarrenPeace
John Adams was advisor to Arthur Sinodinos and says thats the mail he is getting from the majority inside the party. A gold comment for Labor.
BB
Often for a very bad outcome, lots of systems have to fail and it looks like the shooting of the psychiatric patient is one of them. I still can’t work out why he wasn’t tasered. He didn’t have a gun so it’s not like they had to immediately immobilise him. It’s a very sad case.
I like that Rob Oakeshott is contesting Cowper. Some competition for Luke Hartsaayker
Apologies if I have spelt the last name wrong
Interesting! Thanks for that. I’ve been wondering why we’ve been polled so often – three times since the start of the official campaign.
chinda
[NXT is top of the ticket in Barker, Boothby, Sturt and Wakefield.]
I’d be hiding if I was a cat in the Pyne household.
In SA you can vote for Mohammed Ali in the Senate.
John Adans also said that Malcolm doesn’t have a mandate for anything because “Jobsen Grothe” doesn’t have any detail.
Didn’t Turnbull link the east coast storms to climate change yesterday? Not something that would enhance his position as PM within the Liberal Party, I’d imagine. He’ll probably gone a few days after the election, win or lose.
Adams, sorry.
He also said that after going to an election to ‘fix’ the Senate, the Coal are ignoring it and just hoping to win the HoR.
Reachtel 50/50 Fed
Wow?
#ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0)
Well here in Robertson the Anti Paedophile Party candidate got top spot, the Liberals #3 and Labor #7, bottom of the ticket. It seems we might be one of the only seats where Labor did poorly. Hopefully the donkey voters are so stupid they get their ballots upside down and vote from the bottom up! 😀