BludgerTrack is now updated with all of the federal polling published over the past few days, results of which are displayed at the bottom of this post. As has been the case since at least the start of the campaign period, the tracker is resolute in recording an effective dead heat on two-party preferred, with the seat projection continuing to point towards a slender absolute majority for the Coalition. The latest addition to the aggregate is the weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate, which echoes BludgerTrack in coming in at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This follows a two-point movement the previous week that turned a 51-49 Coalition deficit into a 51-49 Coalition lead. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 41%, Labor is up one to 36%, the Greens are up one to 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4%.
Further questions offer some encouragement for Bill Shorten with respect to perceptions of the two leaders during the campaign, although I wonder how good respondents are at isolating that period specifically. The results find 20% saying they have become more favourable towards Shorten versus 21% for less favourable, but these are much better than Malcolm Turnbull’s respective figures of 7% and 33%. Another dose of Essential’s “party trust to handle issues” records a big drop in the Coalition’s lead on managing the economy since a month ago, down from 20% to 12%, with most other measures remaining fairly stable. An occasional question on climate change records a four point drop since March in those attributing it to human activity to 59%, and a one point increase in those favouring the alternative option of it being “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” to 28%. Most of the survey period was before large parts of Sydney’s northern beaches crumbled into the sea. Further questions confirm the impression that the electorate has been less than fully switched on during the first half of the campaign marathon, with only 14% claiming to have shown a lot of interest in the campaign, compared with 39% for some interest, 27% for very little interest and 18% for no interest.
Federal election bits and pieces:
• Labor’s candidate in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Evan Hughes, has provided Fairfax with results of a ReachTEL poll he commissioned showing a 10% swing against Turnbull, reducing his margin from 18% to 8%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 626.
• Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Labor optimism about the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia and Herbert is not matched for the state’s capital. The northern suburbs seat of Petrie, held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%, is identified as a seat where Labor is falling short. A similar prognosis was offered in my own paywalled article in Crikey on Thursday.
• More of my words of wisdom on the campaign can be found on a podcast for The Conversation, and in a review of northern Tasmania’s flood-stricken marginal seats in a paywalled Crikey article yesterday.
• Mark the Ballot tracks Sportsbet’s win probabilities for all 150 electorates to the start of the campaign. Sportsbet has substantially revised its odds over the course of the campaign in favour of the Liberals in Banks, Hindmarsh and Lyons, the Liberal National Party in Leichhardt, the Greens in Batman, Labor in Cowan, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.
• Fairfax reports the Victorian Liberal Party’s administration committee discussed, but ultimately decided against, disendorsing McEwen candidate Chris Jermyn following his struggles before the news cameras as he gatecrashed a Bill Shorten event in Sunbury last weekend.
• An alleged promise by South Australian property developer Roostam Sadri to donate $500,000 to the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the top position on its South Australian Senate ticket has been referred to police by the Australian Electoral Commission, as reported yesterday by Josh Taylor of Crikey. This followed last week’s publication by Fairfax of an apparent written agreement to that effect. Sadri denies having paid such an amount, or that there was ever a “formal agreement”. The section of the Electoral Act pertaining to bribery offences provides, with helpful exactitude, that “a person shall not ask for, receive or obtain, or offer or agree to ask for, or receive or obtain, any property or benefit of any kind, whether for the same or any other person, on an understanding that the order in which the names of candidates nominated for election to the Senate whose names are included in a group in accordance with section 168 appear on a ballot paper will, in any manner, be influenced or affected”. Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland’s TC Beirne School of Law notes that Section 362 of the Act states that candidates forfeit their seats if involved in bribery, and that this requires only the civil rather than the criminal standard of proof. This could equally apply to David Leyonhjelm’s bid for re-election in New South Wales as to Roostam Sadri’s run in South Australia, if the Fairfax report’s assertion that Leyonhjelm “considered entering” an agreement was substantiated.
Further afield:
• The Northern Territory News offers a reminder that a territory election looms on August 27, and the Northern Territory News offers a helpful reminder with a Mediareach poll of 400 respondents in the Alice Springs electorates of Araluen and Braitling. The pollster appears to have failed to ask a follow-up question to prompt the 23% undecided, rendering it of little value, but it’s presumably instructive that less than 40% of decided respondents said they would vote for the Country Liberal Party, compared with 68% at the 2012 election.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the NSW Electoral Commission is investigating allegations of vote-rigging during Labor’s American primary-style “community preselection” process for the seat of Ballina ahead of last year’s state election. It is alleged that a party official used details on enrolled voters from the party’s database to fraudulently vote on their behalf during the online ballot, although the unnamed official is quoted saying he had merely “played along” when asked to do so by persons unidentified. The proposed beneficiary was the favoured candidate of head office and the ultimate victor in the preselection, Paul Spooner, with no suggestion that Spooner himself was involved. The formerly Nationals-held seat went on to be won by the Greens.
Morning all! For what it is worth, I just can’t get my head around the fact that 4 out of 10 Auatralians would vote for Malcayman Turncoat. I read someone’s comment somewhere that their day is incomplete if they don’t encounter at least 10 WTF moments. LNP voters more than fill my daily WTF quota!
Today’s Daily TurBurgler highlights
– Simon Benson claims that Labor’s economic policy ‘is in tatters’ before it is released today
– The Lying Waffle is announcing CCTV at The Gap today, smack bang in the middle of his own electorate of Wentworth. Seems desperate. He could have been in Brisbane fronting the voters in swing city.
– Julie Bishop announcing $1m in pork for a ‘Korean Garden’ in Strathfield
Meanwhile the SmearStralian is moping, desultory, grim.
Sad to see the Government Gazette sink to such lows. Where are the ‘Exclusives’? Where are the drops from LiberalHQ? Where is the dirt file dump from the Liberal Party Dirt Unit?
Come back Peta. All is forgiven.
Great to hear the LNP propaganda machine in full force on the ABC this morning.
First of all BB’s mate Robbie Buck on 702 Sydney was chatting to some Murdoch drone from the Herald-Sun, about basically how everything was going to damage Labor, including a UNION SCARE CAMPAIGN. It’s always best to get your propaganda direct from the source.
Then 2nd headline in the news: ‘Slow and steady: the coalition’s path to surplus’
Que Morrison or Corman’s foot rub with Michael Brissenden on AM to complete the package, I’m sure.
I love this from William’s analysis above.
Or we could have said, “before half of Sydney was eaten by the ocean”.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/07/ramadan-greetings-to-australian-terrorists-whoops-we-mean-muslims/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
NSW local government knows how to do it!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-botany-council-gary-goodman-alleges-peter-fitzgerald-was-aware-of-700000-fraud-20160607-gpdfay.html
Turnbull’s “I’m not going to answer the question” phase. Shorten has one too.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-how-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-are-avoiding-the-questions-20160607-gpd5nu.html
Bronny and Bolt square up.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-how-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-are-avoiding-the-questions-20160607-gpd5nu.html
The four factors, other than high end economics, that drag Australians down.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-how-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-are-avoiding-the-questions-20160607-gpd5nu.html
First the Greens and now the unions are going after Kelly O’Bigmouth.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-unions-target-kelly-odwyer-in-blue-ribbon-seat-of-higgins-over-super-changes-20160607-gpddfl.html
The Little Liberals’ sandpit has some factional problems. Some lovely types emerge from this mob.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/young-liberals-liberal-party-investigating-black-ops-branch-meeting-as-flailing-faction-flexes-muscles-20160527-gp5ywl.html
Laura Tingle on how the battle front turns to economic policy. Google.
/news/politics/election/election-2016-the-battlefront-returns-to-budget-policy-20160607-gpdmbe
Are we heading for a battle of the surrogate economists?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-election-2016-shorten-shifts-focus-to-the-economy-as-morrison-highlights-company-tax-benefits-20160607-gpdbm3.html
Labor will release its 10 year economic plan today. Stand by for the “Where’s the money coming from” tirade.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/08/labor-to-release-10-year-economic-plan-to-fend-off-coalition-attacks
The ball-less Turnbull wants a sterile Facebook “debate” rather than real questions from real people and real reaction. Not a good look Malcolm.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-election-2016-shorten-shifts-focus-to-the-economy-as-morrison-highlights-company-tax-benefits-20160607-gpdbm3.html
Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on the “debate”.
https://theconversation.com/turnbull-proposes-an-election-debate-in-the-media-of-our-time-60630
Section 2 . . .
Kristina Keneally tells us how Labor has not backflipped over company tax cuts.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/07/labor-has-not-backflipped-on-corporate-tax-cuts-here-are-the-facts
Dave Donovan looks at the response to Turnbull’s family history video.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/malcolm-chokes-up-poormalcolm,9080
And Urban Wronski says that Turnbull’s sob story is no platform.
https://urbanwronski.com/2016/06/07/poor-little-malcos-sob-story-is-no-platform/
Now Hilary is going after donations from disaffected Republicans.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/republicans-for-hillary-pac-aims-for-disaffected-gop-donors-20160607-gpdyil.html
The New Matilda tried to ask Pauline Hanson about one of her policies and it didn’t go at all well.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/08/we-tried-to-ask-pauline-hanson-about-one-of-her-policies-and-it-didnt-go-well/
Is the existence of the crime of blasphemy a good indicator of the intelligence of a country?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/exgafatar-leaders-charged-with-blasphemy-and-treason-in-indonesia-20160607-gpd9h5.html
Michael Pascoe on the RBA ringing the warning bell on house prices. Again!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/exgafatar-leaders-charged-with-blasphemy-and-treason-in-indonesia-20160607-gpd9h5.html
Farmers are calling for the head of Murray Goulburn’s chief.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/markets/farmers-call-for-murray-goulburn-chairmans-head-20160607-gpdnph.html
Stephen Koukoulas tells us why the anti-business hype aimed at Labor is simply wrong.
http://thekouk.com/blog/the-anti-business-labor-hyperbole-is-wrong-just-look-at-the-facts.html
You really should read your insurance policy.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/06/07/insurers-may-leave-high-dry/
Section 3 . . .
“Jobs and Growth” is a faith, not a plan.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/01/turnbulls-jobs-and-growth-mantra-is-a-faith-not-a-plan/
ASIC sues the NAB over rate rigging.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-sued-by-asic-over-rate-rigging-20160607-gpdnjl.html
Wendy Touhy tells us that Bill Shorten is telling the truth on the role of women in child care. Google.
/news/opinion/wendy-tuohy/dont-attack-bill-shorten-for-telling-truth-on-womens-role-in-childcare/news-story/224f94f8b0ffd0678d24402d0c7effde
Why younger voters don’t stand a chance.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/its-on-for-old-and-old-younger-voters-dont-stand-a-chance-20160607-gpd8oq.html
Baird’s bad look on the ICAC funding squeeze.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/mike-bairds-bad-look-on-icac-funding-squeeze-20160606-gpd2uv.html
“View from the Street” shouts out, “Hey Greg Hunt. How’s climate change working out for you?”
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-hey-greg-hunt-hows-climate-change-working-out-for-you-20160607-gpdmj4.html
Republican senators are finally realising their party has nominated a racist.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/07/gop-senators-finally-starting-to-realize-their-party-nominated-a/
I know I’ll be lampooned for this, but I’m going to say it anyway.
Why does everyone think that every significant weather event is further proof of AGW? The essential survey shows that nearly everyone agrees that Global Warming is occurring, so these weather events just reinforce that ALREADY common held belief. It does nothing to reinforce the human-assisted agenda though, which is exactly why that figure has not increased, yet repeatedly there is this false premise that more extreme weather events will somehow strengthen that argument. The only thing that should strengthen the argument of AGW are new scientific studies showing the link between the two. That goes for the GBR, bushfires, floods, hurricanes and whatever sensational natural events that may or may not come to pass with increased frequency and ferocity in the future.
Now I’m sure you’ll come back with the argument that 99% of scientific studies already prove AGW, and that’s all very well but a seperate issue nonetheless. It just means that the number of people who subscribe to AGW should remain unchanged in light of recent weather events.
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Ron Tandberg and the robotic election campaign.
Alan Moir on the campaign with Albo.
Ron Tandberg with a rather pessimistic view of the election.
David Pope brings out a lot of our favourite characters in this one,
Pat Campbell reckons the public has had enough of the campaign already!
Mark Knight at home with the Turnbulls.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/81d2464b0fef80913d1d4805b54087bb?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
David Rowe with a classic on the Facebook “debate”.
Who the hell voted for Baird?
Just paid my NSW rego on line which now attracts a credit card surcharge fee!!!! With 5.2 million registered vehicle in NSW that’s a heap of coin.
And if you want to BPay to avoid the fee get this – you have to phone the service centre to get the details. They used to be printed on the renew so WTF?? Are we not continually being steered to use online services and not call centres? Saves costs apparently.
The logic must be folks will get tired of extended call queue wait times and just cop the credit card surcharge.
Change of gov seems to out of the question.
Cormann blaming Shorten as Minister for Fin Services under the previous Labor government for the breaches being prosecuted by ASIC against the banks
“A B Wednesday, June 8, 2016 at 7:34 am” There a lot less sand around the Australian east coast for people to bury their heads in at the moment.
‘Who the hell voted for Baird?’
A large number of people who were fooled by the benign facade presented by the LNP.
Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself.
“Jobs and Growth” is a faith, not a plan.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/06/01/turnbulls-jobs-and-growth-mantra-is-a-faith-not-a-plan/
Sounds like the Prosperity Gospel writ large in politics to me.
Where do you all get the notion from that Turnbull is “intelligent”. There are, of course, many types of intelligence. But, so far as I can tell, people think Malcolm is bright because he’s always telling them he’s bright and because he got a Rhodes Scholarship. Abbott has destroyed the notion the Rhodes Scholarship is a sign of brain. There is no suggestion Turnbull ever showed any academic merit (otherwise it would have been shouted from the roof-tops). So far as I can tell, he can’t even speak a foreign language (Rudd, who I would define as “bright” learned Mandarin). Based on what spews from Malcolm’s mouth every day, I’d say he’s far from intelligent.
Don’t be conned.
“Change of gov seems to out of the question.”
Yeah, when all the polls are about 50/50, sure.
I think you’ve been consuming too much of the ABC fair and balanced, know the story news products.
BK,
A couple of edits required. 🙂
Michael Pascoe on the RBA ringing the warning bell on house prices. Again!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/exgafatar-leaders-charged-with-blasphemy-and-treason-in-indonesia-20160607-gpd9h5.html
And
The four factors, other than high end economics, that drag Australians down.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/election-2016-how-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-are-avoiding-the-questions-20160607-gpd5nu.html
For Dawn Patrollers.
Correct link for the Pascoe article on house prices.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-rings-the-housing-price-warning-bell–again-20160607-gpdlm1.html
Correct link on the four factors dragging us down.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-four-things-that-drag-australia-down-20160607-gpdfrg.html
William
If you are still around I’d like to ask the following questions
1. I have a perception that in most federal elections there is a swing back to the government in the last week. Does the evidence support this view?
2. I see the contests in South Australia involving NXT and the Windsor/Joyce contest in New England as wildcards sitting outside the Bludgertrack projections. Am I right in saying that and what chance do you give those contests of increasing the number of seats lost by the coalition, based on present polling?
3. What realistic chance do you give Labor of picking up six seats in WA as Bludgertrack is currently showing?
Rising deficits for as far as the eye can see from the ALP. #Winning
Definitely not out of the question. Just unlikely.
AB
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/jun/07/take-it-with-a-pinch-of-salt-the-food-marketing-myths-weve-swallowed-whole
I’ll be celebrating the start of Ramadan with a game of Poker and a couple of beers.
Should have been blockquoted
AB
Nearly everyone? Hardly, it was 59%, which leaves 41% of Australians with no clue.
Climate deniers hold their views primarily out of ideology, ignorance, or for emotional reasons. The emotional impact of climate events such as experienced in the last week is much more likely to overcome the cognitive dissonance and shift opinion than further scientific studies. (Not to deny the absolute importance of further scientific studies.)
Morning bludgers
Would be interested to know if anyone else is listening to ABC radio this morning.
I listened to ABC 774 for about an hour this morning. I failed to hear any mention of Shorten doing the forum and Turnbull deciding not to participate, and that Sky ambushed him. It was all over Sky last night.
Tweets
Sky News Australia
24m24 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Credlin criticises Turnbull for forum choice http://bit.ly/24xoA9S
Embedded image
Compact Crank
Wednesday, June 8, 2016 at 8:12 am
Rising deficits for as far as the eye can see from the ALP
I think you meant to say
Lies and deceit for as far as the eye can see from the LNP……
Vic, ABC TV does not mention Turnbull proposing the farcebook debate, but that “both” leaders decided on it. No mention that Bill still doing the sky forum either.
compact crank @ #23 Wednesday, June 8, 2016 at 8:12 am
Both the government and the Opposition are calculating that they will reach Budget Balance in the SAME year, fiscal 21/22.
However, as you are one-eyed you call this #winning for the Coalition but not for the Opposition. Instead you deride.
Typical Tory mockery which glides effortlessly past hypocrisy.
AB @7:54 I agree I am not happy the way climate change is linked to various weather events, it is likely it is but that is not the point.
I would suggest the very warm autumn is more significant, in terms of climate change that the storm (of course the warm weather was probably a factor in the storm)
Vic,
ABC Newsradio had Labor’s Economic policy statement as it’s lead story today. An interview with Chris Bowen and a conversation between Marius Benson and Andrew Probyn. I think they’ve discounted the fact that the farcebook debate is to be taken at all seriously.
Compact Crank,
A word of advice. Don’t go to war with a toy sword.
vogon poet
Appreciate the feedback.
I shouldnt be surprised
Trog:
It’s actually 87% that acknowledge the climate is changing. 59% attribute it to humans. 28% think it’s part of the natural cycle. You are perpetuating the argument I’m making. If you think about it rationally, it actually paints quite a bleak picture, just not for the reasons you attribute it to. It’s says that 87% of people believe that we are stuffed and 28% have no hope that we can get ourselves out of this mess. The other 59& believe it’s an uphill battle but it’s possible we can turn the tide before it’s too late. The “Climate Deniers” as you put it, make up no more than 13%.
C@t
I am quite certain that if it were Shorten who had refused to do the forum tonight and had suggestrd a FB debate, it would make top of news on the ABC.
Victoria:
But the ABC aren’t biased, they’re balanced, or so I’ve been led to believe.
A Budget which leaves red ink on the books and blood on the floor but which gets the Budget back into balance at the same time as Labor is not the sign of responsible economic managers.
AB
It may not be the way it’s supposed to work, but it is the way it does work, most people not having much scientific training.
People react to events that affect them. Everyone, for example, knows that cancer kills people – but someone they know dying of cancer can transform them from someone who just knows to someone who fiercely cares.
The Millenial drought saw people clamouring for action on climate change – and when it started raining again, they stopped.
For many of them, this meant a change from ‘the climate is changing’ to ‘the climate isn’t changing, that was just part of the natural cycle”.
So one would expect that a series of extreme weather events, bigger than ‘natural cycle’ explanations can convincingly cover, make people ‘believe’ in climate change again. And again, given the way minds work, belief in one part of a proposition tends to lead to belief in another (I know a lot of Christians who base their belief on ‘there is something bigger than us out there’. Well, yes, there maybe – but that’s not a justification for accepting a particular brand of religion).
However, as I was arguing yesterday before being side tracked by bemused’s pedantry, extreme weather events uphold the predictions made by climate scientists. For a ‘true’ sceptic, every event which upholds the predictions made reinforces the strength of the theory. As we have more and more events which uphold the theory, one can expect that more and more people will accept that the theory is correct.
Some kind bludger linked to several statements from scientists about the link between extreme weather events and climate change yesterday. I don’t have them now, but sites like CSIRO’s have statements linking individual events back to climate change. It’s pretty much acceptable now in the scientific community that this should happen.
And for all the right wing bias of Sky news, it does a much better job than the ABC. When they show pressers of both sides, they stick with it. The ABC has a habit of cutting away. Pretty useless
John Reidy
It is the point. People do not understand the science.
Science is not saying that events like the east coast low are “caused” by climate change, rather that they will be influenced by it.
It is possible that the east coast low was actually less intense as a result of AGW, although this scenario is highly unlikely. Most likely that the intensity of the event was increased by the fact that the atmospheric system overall is more energetic .
As the atmosphere warms it contains more energy and moisture.
Climate change will affect every weather event.
Gee. Didnt take long for the ABC to prove me right………
Geoff Pearson
3m3 minutes ago
Geoff Pearson @GCobber99
Whats the Point of ABC anymore it just a Liberal propaganda station these day as they cut off Major economic speech from @billshortenmp.
AB
The 28% you refer to are deniers as well. They just use the “natural cycle” excuse to rationalise the irrefutable evidence of global warming.
Sky News Australia
3h3 hours ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Tony Abbott opens up on Bishop relationship http://bit.ly/28iset5
Embedded image
I appreciate your input Zoomster. I just feel that there is no distinction being drawn between AGW and GW. As Trog’s post indicates AGW is used interchangeably with Climate Change and it’s perceived that it has exclusive rights over that term. It’s in effect a strawman argument, that says you MUST not subscribe to climate change if you don’t think humans are the culprits. I remember a US president drawing a similar conclusion regarding terrorists.
Btw on my trevails around the southern end of the seat of Batman (David Feeney), there are now ALP posters of TPlibersek stating that a vote for Labor is a vote for marriage equality within 100 days of being elected
AB
‘I just feel that there is no distinction being drawn between AGW and GW.’
Sorry, but why should there be?
GW doesn’t happen by itself. There has to be reasons for it. (Even a ‘natural cycle’ is driven by causes).
In this case, after decades of trying to work out what’s going on with the climate, scientists have settled on a theory which not only ticks all the boxes in explaining events like this, but has been able to predict the increasing number and severity of events like this (though not actual individual localised events, weather being the highly mobile thing that it is).
So GW/climate change is AGW. That’s what the science says.