ReachTEL: 50-50

Movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary vote from ReachTEL, but their enthusiasm will be tempered by an alarming result from the South Australian seat of Grey, where Rowan Ramsey is under the pump from the Nick Xenophon Team.

ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.

Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.

Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.

bludgertrack-2016-06-10

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

  1. William its interesting that you feel you have to run interference for Murphy and Taylor at the Guardian I rather feel they are the ones with all the power.

  2. Briefly
    Sounds like it,but i cant see the Fibs doing anything for him.The Fibs want people to work until 70,cut medicare services, and increase prices for prescriptions.If he needs those services he will keeping paying more under the Fibs.

  3. where is all the negative advertising?? ama? labor? unions? against everything – cuts to hospitals from abbott, education etc etc etc turnbull’s character …………………….. i would panic now if i was running labor campaign … shorten can seem like its a cup of tea or playing cards close to chest as negotiating a deal —

  4. cupidstunt @ #803 Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 12:24 am

    Briefly
    Sounds like it,but i cant see the Fibs doing anything for him.The Fibs want people to work until 70,cut medicare services, and increase prices for prescriptions.If he needs those services he will keeping paying more under the Fibs.

    I agree with you. He might agree with you too. Doubtless, this would only make him feel even worse. He was obviously feeling very conflicted…was, as I say, close to tears.

    …such things happen to me when I go door-knocking. I let people know that Labor is interested in them and openly invite them to talk, to express their thoughts. Often, they do….sometimes with very surprising results. It is one of the most interesting and rewarding things a bloke can do, I find….

  5. geoffrey @ #804 Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 12:29 am

    where is all the negative advertising?? ama? labor? unions? against everything – cuts to hospitals from abbott, education etc etc etc turnbull’s character …………………….. i would panic now if i was running labor campaign … shorten can seem like its a cup of tea or playing cards close to chest as negotiating a deal —

    If there is one constant message from voters…from all parts of the spectrum…it is that voters are very tired of the negative discourse. Mostly, they will not listen to it. It is more likely to rebound on those who use it as it is to hit its target. Negative lines have to be used very sparingly. Abbott really used them far too often, which is one reason why he grew to be so unpopular so quickly.

    Voters do not want to hear or see explosive politics. They really do not want it.

  6. C@Tmomma
    #769 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    The thing that gets me about that Hartcher article is that Turnbull tries on the line that he is bound by the decisions of the Liberal Party Room from when Tony Abbott was leader! Now that HE is leader he pleads that he is bound by those decisions! What a load of malarkey! Simply a convenient lawyer’s artifice to explain his way out of trouble.

    Actually this one of the most truthful thing Turnbull has said since he became PM.
    It highlights that he is completely beholden to the Right of the party and only got the gig by agreeing to maintain the existing policies.

    Warren Peace @ #779
    Former Lib adviser John Adams said on the Drum, Friday, that he had heard of talk within the party suggesting that Turnbull would not see out a full term as PM.

  7. The Guardian

    Lots of people commenting here in the lead up to the Leveson Inquiry and during it thought the Guardian was pure as driven snow.

    It wasn’t. Just pursueing its commercial competitor.

  8. The stupid Oz always goes on about reforms like a broken record.Why doesnt it tell us what they are then? Bloody know alls.

  9. The Australian is only titillation – suggestion – and campaign. It is not news. Really, it is a vanity project on the part of both its publishers and its consumers.

  10. briefly @ 798 & 800

    I know a whole family of siblings going through this. Culturally working class to the core, except also lifelong tribalist Lib voters, like their Menziean working class, communist fearing, Catholic parents before them. Almost religious in their politics, genuinely can’t understand why anybody could even think of voting for any other party.

    Or at least they couldn’t until recently.

    Now, as they move into late middle age and face increasingly grim economic opportunities watching their jobs flee overseas or sink into barely subsistence level wages and shitty conditions, they are finally starting to understand that they have been conned, and by whom, and that they ultimately have nobody but themselves to blame for not paying attention to the reality of what they voted for. They are confused, humiliated, scared, and getting very pissed off at what they increasingly see as a reneging on the basic social contract (though they don’t use those kind of terms).

    Mostly it is just sad. They are normal people, who tried to do the right thing by their family and society, worked hard, trusted in their tribal leaders, and just got chewed up and spat out by spivs.

    The good thing is they are looking for alternatives. Haven’t quite got to voting Labor yet, but seriously looking.

    These are the sort of people who, once they get over their fear of voting differently, once they discover that their parents won’t rise from the grave to accuse them of apostasy and that the sun will still rise tomorrow, are not going to return to the fold easily. If the Libs are losing these sort of people, then they are in deep and sticky shit.

    It almost doesn’t matter if the Libs win this election or not, they have cooked their electoral goose in a critical part of their traditional base.

  11. bemused @ 661
    Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 8:05 pm

    Thanks for that.

    From memory the person I was thinking of was Meher Baba.

  12. “Now, as they move into late middle age and face increasingly grim economic opportunities watching their jobs …”

    …and their children’s and now grandchildren’s prospect for jobs,…

  13. Good article in The Saturday Paper today saying that Malcolm is just trying to run down the clock until July 2. Sounds like a winning strategy to me. Labor needs some momentum and they need it now.

  14. just me @ #812 Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 1:19 am

    briefly @ 798 & 800
    I know a whole family of siblings going through this

    Thanks for relating this. Human stories are completely compelling. I think the best thing political parties can do is to respond calmly and consistently from our strength…and to make sure we honour the promises we make.

  15. president of the solipsist society @ #817 Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 1:25 am

    Good article in The Saturday Paper today saying that Malcolm is just trying to run down the clock until July 2. Sounds like a winning strategy to me. Labor needs some momentum and they need it now.

    The LNP are clearly losing the election. Whether Labor win is a separate question. The level of “other-positive” voter expression is very high. This appears mostly to represent anti-LNP sentiment. This makes sense. If the wave of opinion we observed late last year was elation and relief, the after-wave has been sullen disappointment. This sentiment appears to be strong enough to deliver a significant number of seats in both houses to “other” contenders. They seem very likely to win enough seats to prevent the LNP from holding power by themselves.

    In WA, considering the lock the LNP have had on federal representation for so long, an intention to vote Labor on the part of past-Liberal voters is also a form of “other-positive” expression. My guess is we will see a high vote for “other” groups in the Senate and that a large share of this expression will accumulate as Labor prefs.

  16. tell me do you think Turnbull will last long after the election.

    If he wins, not long at all unless he spends the whole time bent over for the RWNJ element of the Libs, and even then i reckon they will knife him from orbit…just to be sure.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny analyses the polls and says that Labor will come up short on key marginals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-behind-in-key-seats-needed-to-win-20160610-gpgcx4.html
    Turnbull in his usual comfortable surroundings gets gatecrashed by some money wielding children
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-youngsters-try-to-gatecrash-justin-hemmes-liberal-fundraiser-20160611-gph5es.html
    NSW elective surgery waiting lists have grown to disturbing proportions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/elderly-in-pain-as-nsw-elective-surgery-waiting-list-hits-record-numbers-20160611-gpgzav.html
    Trump’s class rises to the surface again as Elizabeth Warren gets under his skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-apologises-for-pocahontas-remark–to-pocahontas-20160611-gph5u6.html
    The very look of this Liberal candidate should be enough to turn voters off but he has done much more than that to be offensive.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-chris-jermyns-missing-millions-after-social-media-flop-20160610-gpg2rl.html
    Shorten’s health policy is coming out piece by piece.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/bill-shorten-promises-2b-extra-for-hospitals-but-silent-on-other-50b-20160611-gpgz75.html
    Adam Gartrell wonders if the real Malcolm Turnbull will ever stand up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/malcolm-the-marxist-will-the-real-turnbull-ever-stand-up-20160610-gpg6qu.html
    Drug dealers in Victoria are one step ahead of police investigations. Google.
    /news/opinion/andrew-rule/drug-dealers-manage-to-be-one-step-ahead-of-police-investigations/news-story/6f47d5004d30ff22c3b7cbf75ff86b06
    Nuanced racism within the AFL playing stock is losing indigenous and non-Anglo-Australian players.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/racism-report-afl-clubs-losing-indigenous-players-because-of-footballers-views-20160611-gpgzlq.html
    The rise of the sex robots.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/feminism-sex-robots-women-technology-objectify
    Here come the Crows! (Sorry for being a bit parochial!)
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/adelaide/afl-2016-adelaide-crows-come-from-behind-to-beat-west-coast-by-29-points-at-subiaco-oval/news-story/41fc1204f40f383306830f9133f0ee41

  18. I’m have a sick mind.

    I’m fascinated by Morrison doing his Eveready Bunny impersonation.

    Ask him a question on the public service and you get an answer about dams.

    The man’s a freak of nature.

  19. I think the Facebook debate is going to be a shock to the LNP. There are going to be at least some questions on Parakeelia going on the number of tweets I have seen about lack of airtime for that on Insiders this morning

  20. I would be surprised if this wasn’t already really old news on PB but:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-behind-in-key-seats-needed-to-win-20160610-gpgcx4.html

    As suspected two weeks ago, the seats just aren’t there for the ALP at this stage in the election. It is highly unlikely that, despite the apparent closeness of the TPP result, that the swing will be in the places needed for the ALP to overturn the Coalition after one term.
    It was a political masterstroke to oppose the majority of savings measures in the senate, undermining coalition efforts to deal with the fiscal time bomb left by the ALP in 2013, only to quietly capitulate now to win votes. It presupposes, however, that average Australians have an intellect several points lower than it probably is. It is hard to maintain economic credibility by offering to spend more, then, somehow, to achieve a budget surplus in the same year as the coalition, whilst your record of voting in the senate undermines confidence that an ALP government would have the stomach to save money.

    This is also borne out by Swan/Bowen budgets in the past, which set patent, ‘fantasyland’ revenue over the forward estimates, leading to spectacularly unsuccessful abilities to get the budget under control.

    All the ALP seems to be offering is more money in health and education with pretty dubious ability to deliver these. One glaring example is that the coalition has been slammed for providing “50 Billion” in tax cuts, and was accused by Bowen of not being able to fund it. By the same token, the ALP has included this “revenue stream” in total for its spending, even though it doesn’t believe that the same money can be funded. This blows a hole in economic credibility. A massive tactical error.

    It would be singularly unsurprising if the coalition was returned with a reduced majority, like every Australian government in its second term since WW2. What is clear, however, is that Shorten is unlikely to ever be PM. On balance, that is probably a good thing for the country.

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