BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Newspoll’s 50-50 was matched yesterday by Essential Research, and the BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to say much the same.

BludgerTrack is now updated with all of the federal polling published over the past few days, results of which are displayed at the bottom of this post. As has been the case since at least the start of the campaign period, the tracker is resolute in recording an effective dead heat on two-party preferred, with the seat projection continuing to point towards a slender absolute majority for the Coalition. The latest addition to the aggregate is the weekly reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling aggregate, which echoes BludgerTrack in coming in at 50-50 on two-party preferred. This follows a two-point movement the previous week that turned a 51-49 Coalition deficit into a 51-49 Coalition lead. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 41%, Labor is up one to 36%, the Greens are up one to 9%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 4%.

Further questions offer some encouragement for Bill Shorten with respect to perceptions of the two leaders during the campaign, although I wonder how good respondents are at isolating that period specifically. The results find 20% saying they have become more favourable towards Shorten versus 21% for less favourable, but these are much better than Malcolm Turnbull’s respective figures of 7% and 33%. Another dose of Essential’s “party trust to handle issues” records a big drop in the Coalition’s lead on managing the economy since a month ago, down from 20% to 12%, with most other measures remaining fairly stable. An occasional question on climate change records a four point drop since March in those attributing it to human activity to 59%, and a one point increase in those favouring the alternative option of it being “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” to 28%. Most of the survey period was before large parts of Sydney’s northern beaches crumbled into the sea. Further questions confirm the impression that the electorate has been less than fully switched on during the first half of the campaign marathon, with only 14% claiming to have shown a lot of interest in the campaign, compared with 39% for some interest, 27% for very little interest and 18% for no interest.

Federal election bits and pieces:

• Labor’s candidate in Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Evan Hughes, has provided Fairfax with results of a ReachTEL poll he commissioned showing a 10% swing against Turnbull, reducing his margin from 18% to 8%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday from a sample of 626.

Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reports Labor optimism about the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia and Herbert is not matched for the state’s capital. The northern suburbs seat of Petrie, held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%, is identified as a seat where Labor is falling short. A similar prognosis was offered in my own paywalled article in Crikey on Thursday.

• More of my words of wisdom on the campaign can be found on a podcast for The Conversation, and in a review of northern Tasmania’s flood-stricken marginal seats in a paywalled Crikey article yesterday.

Mark the Ballot tracks Sportsbet’s win probabilities for all 150 electorates to the start of the campaign. Sportsbet has substantially revised its odds over the course of the campaign in favour of the Liberals in Banks, Hindmarsh and Lyons, the Liberal National Party in Leichhardt, the Greens in Batman, Labor in Cowan, and Bob Katter in Kennedy.

Fairfax reports the Victorian Liberal Party’s administration committee discussed, but ultimately decided against, disendorsing McEwen candidate Chris Jermyn following his struggles before the news cameras as he gatecrashed a Bill Shorten event in Sunbury last weekend.

• An alleged promise by South Australian property developer Roostam Sadri to donate $500,000 to the Liberal Democratic Party in exchange for the top position on its South Australian Senate ticket has been referred to police by the Australian Electoral Commission, as reported yesterday by Josh Taylor of Crikey. This followed last week’s publication by Fairfax of an apparent written agreement to that effect. Sadri denies having paid such an amount, or that there was ever a “formal agreement”. The section of the Electoral Act pertaining to bribery offences provides, with helpful exactitude, that “a person shall not ask for, receive or obtain, or offer or agree to ask for, or receive or obtain, any property or benefit of any kind, whether for the same or any other person, on an understanding that the order in which the names of candidates nominated for election to the Senate whose names are included in a group in accordance with section 168 appear on a ballot paper will, in any manner, be influenced or affected”. Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland’s TC Beirne School of Law notes that Section 362 of the Act states that candidates forfeit their seats if involved in bribery, and that this requires only the civil rather than the criminal standard of proof. This could equally apply to David Leyonhjelm’s bid for re-election in New South Wales as to Roostam Sadri’s run in South Australia, if the Fairfax report’s assertion that Leyonhjelm “considered entering” an agreement was substantiated.

Further afield:

• The Northern Territory News offers a reminder that a territory election looms on August 27, and the Northern Territory News offers a helpful reminder with a Mediareach poll of 400 respondents in the Alice Springs electorates of Araluen and Braitling. The pollster appears to have failed to ask a follow-up question to prompt the 23% undecided, rendering it of little value, but it’s presumably instructive that less than 40% of decided respondents said they would vote for the Country Liberal Party, compared with 68% at the 2012 election.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the NSW Electoral Commission is investigating allegations of vote-rigging during Labor’s American primary-style “community preselection” process for the seat of Ballina ahead of last year’s state election. It is alleged that a party official used details on enrolled voters from the party’s database to fraudulently vote on their behalf during the online ballot, although the unnamed official is quoted saying he had merely “played along” when asked to do so by persons unidentified. The proposed beneficiary was the favoured candidate of head office and the ultimate victor in the preselection, Paul Spooner, with no suggestion that Spooner himself was involved. The formerly Nationals-held seat went on to be won by the Greens.

bludgertrack-2016-06-08

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,653 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 31 of 34
1 30 31 32 34
  1. [So the FWA has made a decision, the government has accepted it and beefed it up a little, but it seems the CFA wants absolutely 100% its own way on everything or else – that’s not a good faith negotiation, and it’s not a real world one, either.]

    You want a political angle.

    The FWA set up by Labor has shafted 60,000 volunteers in Victoria with NSW (74,000 people), SA (14,000 people), QLD (36,000 people), WA (22,000 people) andTas (5,000 people), soon to follow suit . This is despite the fact that in good faith negotiation, the volunteers did not questions the 19% pay rise, or the 15% loading if a firefighter has to work with a contractor (god help a firefighter who has to work with a bull dozer operator).

  2. I wonder whether the ALo has done a fair bit of qualitative polling which showed a massive issue for people was them being stunned by what was in the first Abbott budget after being told there would be no surprises. That would explain why they keep emphasizing that they’re being up front and telling people their priorities and where they’ll make cuts/ savings.

    It seems counter-intuitive to avoid being a small target, but that’s what Abbott did and look what happened.

    Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming days in the polls.

  3. Adrian

    I’m always a little surprised at which piece of news becomes the theme for the day here. And once it’s set, it seems immovable.

  4. Rummel, why are you putting QLD in there ?
    Our fire fighter volunteers, the Rural Fire Brigade, only fight bushfires, and have nothing to do with professional ones. Sounds like a better system to me.

  5. Carey Moore
    If you look on that list from the Electoral Commission you will see in the last column the places on the ticket for each candidate.
    I am very happy to see that Chris Gambian for Labor is placed number one.

  6. adrian Friday, June 10, 2016 at 3:33 pm

    I haven’t had time to check the news or anything, but this site seems pretty morose. Very

    few comments on Labor’s spending cuts. Were they that bad?
    *************************************************************

    Shorten unveils cuts for budget savings

    Bill Shorten has proposed new cuts to health, family welfare and business tax breaks, and backflipped on four coalition budget cuts, in a bid to balance the books under a Labor government.

    The opposition leader and his finance team on Friday unveiled $105 billion in budget savings over a decade that he says would be delivered by a Shorten government after July 2.

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/06/10/shorten-unveils-cuts-budget-savings

  7. Adrian – the spending cuts weren’t bad at all. Not wonderful, but understandable. The drop in family rebate part A is probably the worst, but it is swings and roundabouts – these people will not pay up front health etc which should balance out

  8. BURGEY- It’s amazing isn’t it. Labor is out there acting as if it’s the government, while the libs just run up and down on the spot huffing and puffing. I know it sounds crazy, but it really might work.
    I really don’t see the alternative. Against a first term government (which can rely upon voter inertia) you’ve got to go big target. That’s the conventional wisdom.

  9. Gee, Briefly, I hope you are right. I don’t get the sense of much happening in my neck of the woods…true the Lib candidate for Perth has now got his mug shot on the bus stops the State member for Mt Lawley used to grace, and somebody parked a trailer on a the nature strip, also with his mug shot, but I would be amazed if many people have noticed who either the Liberal or Labor candidate is. If Labor get to add 3-4 seats, including Burt, to their current score of 3/15 then it might be said that Labor has done well. Some of those seats you mention I sense are a bridge too far. However, such may be the need to want to smack anyone on the Liberal side for Barnett’s very tired government, then who knows. Strangely, if Labor do win government or go close, it might just save Barnett (or whoever) come the 2017 State election. Voters may feel they have had their say. This will a good test to see whether voters can separate out State and Federal issues and vote accordingly.

  10. So, some aggregate stats:

    Senate Average position of party (note, this will be an unfair comparison if any of the parties aren’t in all states/territories, so use with care)

    Liberal Democrats 9.714285714
    Australian Labor Party 4.166666667
    Liberal 9.615384615
    The Greens 8.583333333
    Australian Sex Party 15.57142857
    Family First 19.5
    The Nationals 11
    Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) 5.111111111

    So it’s a good time to be Labor or Fred Nile in the senate, and a bad time to be FF or Sex party.

    HOR

    Labor 3.88
    Greens 3.43
    Coalition 3.86
    NXT 4.43
    Independent 4.86

    So good time to be Green, not so much for NXT or independent.

  11. rummel

    No, I want a solution. It appears we have one, and it’s one which respects the rights of volunteers and includes mechanisms to deal with their complaints.

  12. Good afternoon all,

    The measures announced today are overall mild.

    Concerns about the Family tax benefit cuts for families earning over $100000 need to be looked at in the perspective that they target around 120000 – 130000 families while the changes the coalition want to push through would target almost 2 million families.

    Yes, some families will be worse off under the labor changes but all families will still be better off under labor than the coalition.

    As well, labor still has its families / welfare package to come.

    Cheers.

  13. on the cuts from the ALP.
    They will take some flak, but nothing seriously politically damaging i think. Libs will huff and puff as usual, but just say the same crap over and over and over…..and find people have stopped listening.

  14. [Rummel, why are you putting QLD in there ]

    Because the QLD volunteers are the most down trodden lot of them all and were the first to get the knife by Campbell Newman and the Libs. Now Victoria with a Labor Government and the Greens ramping up with Fire Brigade union in NSW. The dominos are falling across Australia and the Volunteers are starting to arch up about it .

  15. Tricot

    In my admittedly limited travels around the electorate of Perth, the only signs I’ve seen are for the Labor member (about half a dozen mostly in the Maylands area), and one for the One Nation clown. No Libs, no Greens, no-one else.

  16. The injunction has been extended until June 22 to allow the CFA and VFBV engage in private discussions.

    That could lead to a decision very close to the Federal Election, and during Pre-Polling.

  17. Wow! The Liberals have really gotten a bad draw in the SA HoR seats.

    Labor is number 1 in the hotly contested Hindmarsh.

    Lab v. Lib-wise, Labor is higher than Liberal in every seat except Adelaide.

    NXT number 1 in Sturt, Boothby and Barker.

  18. I’m in QLD but I just had a look at the WA Senate. Not good for the fibs.
    Labour scored Group D …… annnnd the Fibs = Group X

  19. [Isaac Logan
    Friday, June 10, 2016 at 4:25 pm
    The injunction has been extended until June 22 to allow the CFA and VFBV engage in private discussions.]

    Yes, well played Daniel Andrews.

  20. Wondered what the Council of Small Business Associations was up to promoting the three Greens in grey suits (Di Natale, Whish-Wilson, Nick McKim) this morning, then it clicked – what a wonderful lead-in to the exchange of ‘favours’ – wait for the Libs to justify preferencing them on the gounds of them being a friend to small business. Perfect symmetry………

  21. I know I’ll get shouted down for this, but I think Labor’s package of spending cuts today are rather courageous. Again, Labor has set its sights on taking more money out of households where one or more adults earns AWE or above.
    Each new policy that Labor announces (with the partial exception of the child care funding) says to hard-working middle-to-upper income households “we don’t give a stuff about you: we want to take more and more money off you and give it to those who don’t work.”
    Labor is obviously no longer concerned about the risk that the welfare system will lose the support of higher income working households if they can’t see themselves benefiting from it in any way: Mark Latham’s concept of “downwards envy” where working people in the outer suburbs come increasingly to resent the welfare dependent.
    If Labor does well in the election – wins or comes reasonably close – then I’ll have to eat my words. I still think they are going down the wrong path. The Daily Telegraph website has already sketched out the Liberals’ plan of attack with the headline: “Bill Shorten to cut billions in welfare to pay for spending “.
    If the cuts were about returning the Budget to surplus more quickly than the Libs, then that would have been easier to defend. As it is, the whole Labor policy package has an increasing appearance of “tax and spend”. And a “big target” flavour reminiscent of John Hewson in 1993 (and we all know how that ended).
    It all feels very wrong to me. I appreciate that nobody else on here seems to agree with me. But it’ll be the voters who decide come election night, which I fear will be a sad and sorry one on this forum.

  22. [Rummel
    Friday, June 10, 2016 at 4:30 pm
    Yes, well played Daniel Andrews.|

    Not sure if it is, it will keep it in the media – an am I sure Bill isn’t going gain votes based on it, whether libs gain well thats other issue.

  23. Scott Bales 3.54pm. The higher spots on Senate paper are some advantage and number 1 spot gets a donkey vote – but only CDP in WA Derryn Hinch in Vic will have any impact on potential Senators I would think.

    You need to look at each seat for HOR ballot position donkey vote effects. NXT and Labor have done exceptionally well in SA. In the Labor held seats where NXT would be a chance if they get somewhat/well ahead of Libs – Labor get donkey ahead of NXT in 4 seats but not in Wakefield. Libs ahead of Labor in Adelaide but not likely to be a Lib chance.

    In the Lib held seats Labor gets spot 1 in Hindmarsh. NXT gets donkey ahead of Libs in 5 out of 6 Lib held seats including Mayo, Boothby and Sturt. Exception is Grey which is not a likely NXT challenge.

  24. Dan @ 4.13

    Yes, I agree…Surprisingly thin on the ground and sporadic at best. Based on mug shots and associated stuff which goes with elections, you would hardly think July 2 is any more significant than July 1 or 3. Maybe it’s just in and around Perth?

  25. CFA court injunction extended until June 22

    CFA Board probably still be sacked in the next 20 minutes, but will be in contempt of court if a new board signs the deal

  26. Can someone explain to this NS Welshman WTF the CFA dispute is about?

    I know I should be very concerned, but I just don’t know why.

  27. Well, what are the odds? ON the Qld Senate ticket, out of 37 columns, the Palmer Party, Lazarus Team and Lambie Group have drawn 3 adjacent columns. Labor, Lib Dems and LNP all in the first few columns and Greens third from the RH edge. Not that I think position matters as much as it used to – with the new instructions, all but the really stupid or impatient will be scanning left and right several times for their preferred 6 or more parties.

  28. Bob Katter’s Hat

    Yeah i agree, going to mess things up a bit, new board unable to do anything for 12 days

  29. Can someone explain to this NS Welshman WTF the CFA dispute is about?

    Seems to be about the dead hand of regulation and control descending on the volunteer fire fighters. Volunteers reckon that if they give up their time for free, they should have a say in how they spend it.

  30. Labor reducing state sponsored welfare for families earning over $100k?
    I think this sits oddly with wanting to be family and organic population growth friendly but ok.

    Taking a hit at recent graduates struggling to save for a house & start a family. Not ok.
    IMO No way any graduates should be paying back degrees before they earn $60k+ or even much more.

    That is the degrees that have already been inflated to double or triple their real cost via over inflated lecturer, administrator & executive salaries within universities, their advertising & waste and massive student subsidisation of research work.

  31. Lizzie

    How much is the donkey vote worth?

    As a trainee psephologist I’d estimate about 51%. That’s why we have Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister.

  32. I think the problem CFA vs. MFB has developed because the suburbs have spread out into pastures new, so to speak. It has been brewing for a long time. There will be a certain amount of turf-defending, no doubt. But there is no joy in volunteering if no respect is given.

Comments Page 31 of 34
1 30 31 32 34

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *