Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:

bludgertrack-2016-06-06

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. I just got polled by Oz info (spelling?) asked about federal voting intention, demographic info, postcode (2795) and a lot of questions about confidence of real estate values, where I would invest (banks/shares etc), do I think prices will go up or down, do I think they have gone up or down and my two major concerns (Medicare and Education ) amongst other things.

    Tom.

  2. SCOTT – The most interesting thing about Jennifer Oriel are her “I’m not just a pretty face” glasses. All the conservative female commentators seems to wear them. Why? I’m intrigued.

  3. If the ALP are behind on their internal polls it sure aint showing in the body language of their frontbenchers.

  4. confessions @ #146 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:15 pm

    Briefly:
    On Labor out-campaigning the coalition, I agree. But I also wonder if this is because the coalition are so focused on sand-bagging their marginal seats that they can’t give attention to re-claiming seats they once held like Indi.
    From the minute he was preselected ahead of the 2013 election, Rick Wilson was everywhere. You saw him in the street, in the papers every week, on social media, attending the opening of everything from an art exhibition to an envelope (he still does this btw). The Libs never hid him away like Mirabella has been closeted. They even opened a campaign office in Albany and had Dean Smith declare himself ‘Senator for the Great Southern’ and he’d be campaigning down here with Wilson and a plethora of senior Liberals.
    And now Wyatt Roy is in hiding. What on earth is going on?

    I dunno what “sandbagging” means if it cannot consist of going out to meet voters and to campaign in person. The usual campaigning techniques – mass media, social, letter-boxing – generate very low responses and even lower persuasion rates. I think the Libs are trying hard with $-heavy messaging. But their main device – the leader – is an abysmal bomb.

    They continue to expose themselves as having very little to offer – no policies, no positive themes, no visible candidates, no leadership, no brand-grunt. Indeed, they are running a pseudo brand “strategy”. This is almost certain to end in tears for them.

  5. confessions @ #150 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:17 pm

    Briefly:
    That sounds sensible. However I’ve said before that (admittedly from the other side of the country), McGowan doesn’t look like running much of a campaign for re-election. Just going through the motions. Zoomster has confirmed that her Melbourne support base has dissipated, and even the Greens have turned on her over her support for the govt’s boat arrivals policies. Perhaps she’s finding this elected member business all a bit difficult.

    Yup…she is all at sea…

  7. SKY not very impressed by Turnbull’s facebook suggestion. Speers pointed out that the last debate was live streamed via facebook and that facebook has proposed not a debate but Q & A sessions for both leaders. He said that a debate is two people face to face.

  8. Sydney’s most expensive private school has asked the Presbyterian Church for advice on what it describes as the “homosexual agenda”, in the event that a same-sex couple wanted to enrol their child at the school.

    The Scots College, which shot to public attention in February after the church removed the school’s entire ruling council, asked the church for guidance at an Emergency General meeting last year.

    “The Scots College has requested the Gospel, Society and Culture Committee to prepare a statement on a biblical response to the homosexual agenda and wishes to be able to respond rightly in the event that a same-sex couple might seek to enrol a boy within the College,” the confidential minutes of the meeting in September reveal.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/scots-college-asks-church-for-advice-on-homosexual-agenda-20160606-gpcax9.html#ixzz4AmJfFLk5
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    How much public funding does this school and others like it receive? I know the coalition would like to increase its share of public funds, but my own view is that schools that actively discriminate against people shouldn’t get any public funding.

  9. ROSSMORE – Totally agree. I’ve been reflecting on that a lot. It’s as if they’re all sharing a private joke (hopefully on the pollsters)

  10. Zoomster:

    Of course Sky have a vested interest in the people’s forum going ahead. Naturally they’d poo-poo a social media debate.

  11. Some one should ask Turnbull if he thinks this election is all about him, with his poor little rich boy add.

  12. Another strong showing for Hillary Clinton in Puerto Rico today (Sunday in the US).

    Tuesday (Wednesday our time) is shaping as a historic day in US politics when for the first time a woman will become a presumptive nominee for the presidential election.

    Clinton will secure the nomination with a huge win in New Jersey. California will not even be relevant because the race will be over before vote counting even starts there.

    Sometime next week we will see President Obama, VP Biden and the likes of Elizabeth Warren come out in support of Hillary Clinton.
    There will be a large cohort of Democrats who will also quietly be telling Bernie Sanders to get out of the race for the sake of the party.

    Despite 30 years of slanderous lies, right wing backed smears and unfair double standards Hillary Clinton has proven herself to be by far the strongest and most qualified candidate this election cycle and I have no doubt she will easily defeat Trump in November.

    I wonder if Bernie Sanders will continue his campaign of negativity, sour grapes, cries of rigged elections and general grumpiness towards Clinton and the DNC or will he show the maturityexpected from someone who held themselves up to be the most important politician in the world and concede gracefully?

    Clinton has taken the right decision in recent times to simply ignore him and focus her energies towards Trump as we saw in that excellent speech earlier this week.
    She no longer needs to pander to Sanders and his ragtag bunch of supporters.

    Despite the bravado and bluster coming from Sanders mouth I do not think he will carry the fight to the Convention in Philadelphia.
    I doubt that his over inflated ego could handle the embarrassment of being soundly beaten on the first vote call.

    After the DC primary on June 14 I fully expect Sanders to suspend his campaign and throw his support behind Clinton and urge his followers to do the same.

  13. I wonder how much of that 15% other vote is for the Australian Liberty Alliance. I could see them getting 2% or 3% by picking up conservatives who were prepared to back Abbott but not Turnbull.

  14. Scott, if that’s in the unAustralian, it’s not satire. Rupe does not allow them to do humour. Unconscious satire of course, but not intended as such.

  15. Let’s just imagine Tony Abbott saying “Let’s face it, men in Australia rely on the women in Australia to do the childcare and to organise childcare.”
    The double standards are breathtaking.

  16. Hi. I’ve been busy, but noticed in the last thread that some posters don’t buy my view that Labor has moved to the left on economic policy.
    To me it’s obvious. One simple example: not long ago, Labor supported lowering company tax rates. But their policy as expressed in this campaign is increasingly sounding like “never, ever (except for small business)”.
    Leaving aside their neg gearing policy, their CGT increase is hardcore, as is their promise not to remove the budget repair levy.
    To ne, it all comes together as a “tax the rich” package: we’ll get money off those bastards and give it to you.
    Under Hawke and Keating, the rhetoric was about making more of us rich.

  17. confessions @ #158 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:32 pm

    How much public funding does this school and others like it receive? I know the coalition would like to increase its share of public funds, but my own view is that schools that actively discriminate against people shouldn’t get any public funding.

    I completely agree with this. Public money should be accepted on a no-strings-attached basis…that is, schools that accept public $ will accept applications for enrolment from all-comers, in the same way that public sector schools also accept all-comers.

  18. I was talking to a very good friend of mine today who I haven’t seen for quite a while. He is a Liberal voter but has no time at all for Turnbull, whom he thinks is just in it for himself and has no deep convictions about anything at at all.

    I have always respected my friend’s ability to read the play and his opinion is that the Liberals will win narrowly but will be unable to get their agenda through the senate. He said he is feeling quite depressed about it because he cannot see that changing for a long, long time.

    I told him I agree that the Liberals will win this time, but didn’t mention that I think they will be thoroughly thrashed in 2019, as their economic incompetence becomes apparent for all to see. I didn’t want to depress him any more than he already was.

  19. William,
    This Twitter conversation about tactical voting was posted on the Guardian Blog.
    I’d have thought this would demonstrate more the retiring Member’s personal vote.
    Where am i going wrong?

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    @murpharoo Tactical voting, for example, is actually a thing – an important thing in a campaign – but needs a good example……
    Follow
    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    @murpharoo Let’s say you poll a seat about voting intention, then a by-election is called, then poll them again. The two results will differ
    7:06 AM – 6 Jun 2016
    Retweets 1 1 like
    6h
    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    @murpharoo That difference is tactical voting at its most obvious.But it also exists across all elections of all types

  21. Scott

    I’ve spent some time trying to work out if this is satire or not and haven’t reached a verdict.

    It’s drivel from an Abbott supporter who thinks he should do a ‘Rudd’ (that, of course, will make it a certain defeat).

  22. Darn
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    I suspect there will be a severe economic downturn in 2017 ….if the Libs are in power (ideally in a minority) then the misleading perception of their economic capabilities will be trashed forever. A good thing.

  23. meher baba @ #166 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Hi. I’ve been busy, but noticed in the last thread that some posters don’t buy my view that Labor has moved to the left on economic policy.
    To me it’s obvious. One simple example: not long ago, Labor supported lowering company tax rates. But their policy as expressed in this campaign is increasingly sounding like “never, ever (except for small business)”.
    Leaving aside their neg gearing policy, their CGT increase is hardcore, as is their promise not to remove the budget repair levy.
    To ne, it all comes together as a “tax the rich” package: we’ll get money off those bastards and give it to you.
    Under Hawke and Keating, the rhetoric was about making more of us rich.

    Removing the CGT discount is intended to ensure two things happen. First, that incomes to capital are taxed just as incomes to labour are taxed; and second, to encourage capital to flow to investment in the real economy rather than to speculation in land. There is nothing “left” about these. They are completely orthodox. You cite Hawke and Keating. CGT was legislated by them Costello and Howard distorted the set-up. Shorten proposes to restore the Keating settlement.

  24. diogenes @ #165 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:49 pm

    Let’s just imagine Tony Abbott saying “Let’s face it, men in Australia rely on the women in Australia to do the childcare and to organise childcare.”
    The double standards are breathtaking.

    Diog, you are confusing “stereotyping” (as per Abbott’s “ironing” comment), “sexism” (as per Abbott’s “virginity” comment) and a fair assessment of who bears the burden of child care in today’s society – men or women (as per Shorten’s comment).

    Or are you going to contend that women don’t by far bear this burden more than men? Because if you are then I am here to tell you you are wrong, wrong, wrong!

  27. meher baba,
    Labor’s position on cutting Company Tax rates is not more left wing than the norm. It is a position based upon the fact that doing so produces no perceivable benefit for employment or business creation. It is a rational position based upon the evidence from Canada and the UK. If you support the Liberal’s position you are buying into their fairy story.

  28. edward boyce @ #163 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:49 pm

    I wonder how much of that 15% other vote is for the Australian Liberty Alliance. I could see them getting 2% or 3% by picking up conservatives who were prepared to back Abbott but not Turnbull.

    You can be sure that fewer than 1/100 Australians have even heard of ALA . Of these, next to none will consider voting for them.

  30. Darn, you missed the opportunity to tell him to vote for LibDems/Fam First/Liberty Alliance, etc in the Senate, and to Just Vote One

  31. Unless there is a hidden exception somewhere in the Anti-Discrimination legislation (which I doubt), no school could refuse entry to a student on account of the relationship of his parents.

    Federal funding has nothing to do with it.

  32. Making everyone rich is a pursuit of those on the right. The left are supposedly more interested in ensuring no-one is poor aren’t they?

  34. diogenes @ #165 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:49 pm

    Let’s just imagine Tony Abbott saying “Let’s face it, men in Australia rely on the women in Australia to do the childcare and to organise childcare.”
    The double standards are breathtaking.

    There is no double-standard. Shorten is addressing himself to women with children. Just ask them who is typically responsible for childcare arrangements. To be relevant, child-care policies have to make sense to women who are working or studying. It is a feminist issue, on the whole.

  35. Misconstruing what Bill Shorten said about the reality of Childcare responsibilities is mischievous and misleading.

  36. shellbell @ #183 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    Shorten proposes to restore the Keating settlement

    I thought it was indexation under Keating

    Indexation was relevant in a high-inflation context. The flat discount is an inducement to speculate on capital gains. The discount has had the effect of encouraging capital into land and away from the real economy. It’s one of the reasons why we have had such lousy productivity improvements.

  37. CC
    [I’ve already called the Election for the ALP on Day 1. Turnbull has screwed the pooch.]
    Did Chris Kenny have the day off?

  38. shellbell @ #181 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    Unless there is a hidden exception somewhere in the Anti-Discrimination legislation (which I doubt), no school could refuse entry to a student on account of the relationship of his parents.
    Federal funding has nothing to do with it.

    I think religious organs (or their analogues) are permitted to discriminate any way they like…wish it were not so…

  39. “But their policy as expressed in this campaign is increasingly sounding like ‘never, ever (except for small business)’.”

    In fairness, the last I heard Shorten say on the subject was that you don’t cut corporate taxes when there’s not a surplus available to fund the tax cuts.

  40. Unless there is a hidden exception somewhere in the Anti-Discrimination legislation (which I doubt), no school could refuse entry to a student on account of the relationship of his parents.

    There are religious exemptions for all kinds of policy issues. My point is that if these entities wish to discriminate against certain members of society, they should have no entitlement to public funding. You want to keep children of same sex parents out of your school? Fine, but don’t do it asking for taxpayers to help you!

  41. Personally-speaking, the more that is done to improve the availability and cost of childcare the better. Female access to work and education remain very important issues. The whole-of-life set of opportunities for women are absolutely intrinsic to improving living standards not only for women but for children. Women have lower life-time earnings, lower retirement incomes and fewer opportunities than males. This is an egalitarian issue and an economic issue. It is first-order business for Labor.

  42. Sex Discrimnation Act, 1984

    38(3) Nothing in section 21 (can’t discriminate on grounds of sex as to education) renders it unlawful for a person to discriminate against another person on the ground of the other person’s sexual orientation, gender identity, marital or relationship status or pregnancy in connection with the provision of education or training by an educational institution that is conducted in accordance with the doctrines, tenets, beliefs or teachings of a particular religion or creed, if the first-mentioned person so discriminates in good faith in order to avoid injury to the religious susceptibilities of adherents of that religion or creed.

  43. If there’s a disaffected right-wing vote out there, it’s likely to be neatly split between Family First, the Australian Liberty Alliance, One Nation, etc., etc.. The more the merrier: under the new Senate electoral system, that makes it odds on that none of them will get up.

  44. Shellbell @ 5.23pm: So that appears to mean that a school can discriminate against a gay student. But can it discriminate against a student of unspecified sexuality on the basis that he or she has same-sex parents? How broad is the expression “in connection with”?

  45. confessions @ #176 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 5:00 pm

    meher baba:
    Your arguments about Labor’s policy stances are similar to what Mumble has argued in his recent column. Essentially Labor is playing to its base:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-01/brent-when-in-doubt,-labor-plays-to-the-base/7466384
    I too doubt it will be successful, but if it is then no doubt the Labor strategists will be hailed as heroes by the media.

    confessions, I reckon both MB and mumble are mistaken. They have fallen for LNP polemics. Labor’s policies are about matching sound fiscal policy with improving individual economic opportunities and protecting social incomes. If that is about “the base”, then every Labor Government since Fisher has been about the same thing.

    The inference that mumble wants us to draw is that there are at least two Australia’s – Labor’s base and some other echelon or echelons. This is false. Labor’s policies are relevant to the whole community. They are about the workability of the economy and the social order for everyone. Mumble has bought into the “lifters-and-leaners” dichotomy. This is just rubbish.

  46. Sky News Australia

    For those who may be interested

    32m32 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Tonight on #pmlive:

    #Newspoll will breakdown the ‘other’ vote. Who is going well & where?

    9pm AET on (@pm_live)
    Embedded image

  47. shellbell @ #192 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Sex Discrimnation Act, 1984
    38(3) Nothing in section 21 (can’t discriminate on grounds of sex as to education) renders it unlawful for a person to discriminate against another person on the ground of the other person’s sexual orientation, gender identity, marital or relationship status or pregnancy in connection with the provision of education or training by an educational institution that is conducted in accordance with the doctrines, tenets, beliefs or teachings of a particular religion or creed, if the first-mentioned person so discriminates in good faith in order to avoid injury to the religious susceptibilities of adherents of that religion or creed.

    …so there’s a kind of “acting in good faith” exemption to non-discrimination provisions…??

  48. victoria @ #196 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 5:33 pm

    Sky News Australia
    For those who may be interested
    32m32 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Tonight on #pmlive:
    #Newspoll will breakdown the ‘other’ vote. Who is going well & where?
    9pm AET on (@pm_live)
    Embedded image

    fascinating stuff!

  49. Yes, I take it mumble thinks Labor’s base is ‘ordinary people’.

    Liberals’ base is big business and high income earners. They’re definitely playing to that base, which (by definition) is far smaller than any base Labor might be appealing to.

    (SKY news panel, including the right winger Paul Murray, saying that Shorten’s comments are based on reality and are not sexist).

  50. PEDANT – My trolling behind the News Corpse paywall (God, I love the comments sections) suggests that a lot of pissed off Abbott Supporters are going to register their protests in the Senate. We will see.

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