Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:

bludgertrack-2016-06-06

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 27
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  1. A.R.
    You have good points of course, but the MSM are looking for headline grabbers and I just think Health and NBN policy details would gain more traction with the media,and widen the policy agenda between Lib and Lab.

  4. Cathy McG:

    I support equal rights for same-sex couples to marry. Discrimination has no place in Australian law or society. I will be voting in support of marriage equality, whether it comes directly to the House or by way of a plebiscite.

  5. Because the Kouk would never be biased

    crank

    read the fact check articles on spending and bulk billing and then let me know if you ever rely on them for any financial advice that involves a comparison of different products.

  7. How would Turnbull’s Facebook “debate” run? Would he even need to take part – couldn’t he get the LNP hacks to present talking points on his behalf?

  8. Ah, CC’s posts for the day have started – just after school has come out…

    It’s a public holiday in WA today, so no school on here.

  9. Boris
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:27 pm
    Without having his Net Present Value calculations I can’t assess that.
    What are the assumptions about Marginal Revenue?
    What are the assumptions about Marginal Cost?
    At the moment he might be just under making that decision but with a tax cut it becomes worthwhile doing. Hiring another Pharmacist takes into account things like the owner pharmacist’s own time. Extra support staff, shop security if opening extra hours, opening hours, volume discounts from suppliers, ability to take on student Pharmacists – just to mention a few things that factor in to the overall equation.

  12. The LNP campaign so far has to be one of the worst I’ve ever seen. They have zilch. And now they’re determined to advertise it.

  13. Listen to McGowan speak and you would think she was a steadfast supporter of marriage equality, and she is. Listed on her website is her speech as a co-sponsor of a bill introduced last year that would have legalised same-sex marriage, a bill that was never put to a parliamentary vote. “People in my electorate want this dealt with and dealt with quickly,” she reportedly said at the time.

    Yet she now supports a plebiscite on same-sex marriage, a notion opposed by most supporters on the grounds that it is an unnecessary delaying tactic cooked up by opponents, would cost millions and could be harmful to families like Kerr’s. Her explanation is that she would have preferred it had been dealt with in parliament through a conscience vote, but because that option was removed, “I support the government taking this issue to a public vote.”</b

  14. Briefly:

    The LNP on 40% PV. They cannot win. It’s possible that Labor cannot win on 35% either. But if the Lib PV is 40% on 2 July, they will have lost their majority. This is the first step towards the defeat of the most irrelevant, debauched and reactionary Government since Lyons.

    Cupidstunt:

    Libs 40% primary is a shocker for them.They wont win with 40% primary.

    Much as I’d love this to be the case, I’m not seeing it myself. The Coalition can almost always count on getting a good proportion of non-Green preferences. It all really depends on where the Xenophon Team and various independent and centre-right minor party voters end up directing their preferences.

    The Coalition won majority on 39.5% of the primary vote in 1998 (compared to 40.10% for Labor). Admittedly, that was with a much smaller Greens primary and a rather high One Nation primary (which presumably would have been quite good for the Coalition preference-wise), but it nonetheless shows that its perfectly possible for the Coalition to win on a 40% primary if the seats fall a certain way.

    And, come on, Briefly: “They cannot win”?? Really? You’re basing this on one poll? I’m afraid your unflinching, hyper-partisan optimism is rapidly turning into self-parody.

  16. Citizen:

    It’s debatable it would actually be MT. I remember Abbott did a live chat thing on Facebook during the 2013 campaign, and it was obvious from the responses that there were at least 2 people posting responses. I’d bet he wasn’t even online at the time.

  17. briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:31 pm
    You forgot to mention that the ALP is struggling to get 25 more than one third of Australia to vote for them and are completely dependent on Greens Preferences for any chance of success.

  18. Agree the Coalition will unlikely win with a PV of 40% but I doubt Labor will win either on 35%.
    We are in scary times.

  19. The QLD News Ltd rag has declared that Turnbull won’t be at the debate, then states later in the article that the party is still considering its options.

    Well, the debate is being held right in the middle of the Brisbane electorate being vacated by Gambaro.

  20. And McGowan on AS:

    What she doesn’t tell the audience is that she supports the key elements of Australia’s broadly bipartisan asylum seeker policies, including mandatory detention and offshore processing of asylum seekers who attempt to arrive by boat. She’d like Australia to be “better” about how we go about it, be more humane, faster at processing asylum claims and more welcoming to refugees.

    On her website, McGowan notes that she seconded a 2014 motion from a fellow independent, Andrew Wilkie, that would have limited mandatory detention to 14 days, ended offshore processing and scrapped temporary protection visas. But she disagreed with Wilkie’s bill – which never got to a vote – something not mentioned on her website. She says she seconded it not because she supported it, but to allow it to be discussed.

    And last year the government and Labor joined forces to push through an urgent bill to explicitly authorise the offshore detention regime and its funding after a loophole was identified that might have meant the regime was illegal.

    McGowan says she agonised over that bill. There was little time to consider it, and she was “really stressed” about it. But she did support it, even though the legislation never went to a formal vote. “I do support government on it,” she says. “My part as an independent member is to work with the government of the day to achieve a good result.” If Australia is to have offshore detention, it needs to be properly funded. Does she support the closure of the Manus Island and Nauru detention centres? “It’s not so much about what I think about this,” she explains. “If it’s government policy that’s been voted in by the people of Australia, both major parties

    support it

    … we should do it well.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/28/election-2016-cathy-mcgowan-sophie-mirabella-will-indi-hold-on-to-the-power-of-one

  21. Compact Crank @ Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:39 pm

    You’re still comparing apples with oranges. Company tax rates pose the question, “Is it a prudent financial move to operate a business at the moment, or can I better invest in an alternative endeavour?” It does not pose the question, “Can I afford to hire an additional employee whilst operating in the same capacity I always have?”

  22. Even the Oz has an article expressing cynicism at Turnbull’s childhood story:

    Turnbull lucky in life’s lottery
    2:37PMCAROLINE OVERINGTON
    Why does the PM not say: as a young boy, I was more fortunate that most?

    Of course, the Oz still carries Turnbull’s sob story as lead item.

  23. asha leu @ #114 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:42 pm

    The Libs will lose their majority if their PV is below 40%…there are just not enough Lib-leaning “other” votes to be gained to see them hold on to their majority. The supposed “other” vote will be localised and patchy. PUP – which lured support from Labor and assigned it the LNP – are defunct. Just where will the LNP find the prefs they need to turn, say a 39% PV, into a majority?

  24. Wonder if Sky will put an empty chair or lecturn there for Turnbull. We need the Chasers there with a cardboard cutout of Turnbull if he is a no show.

  25. Celeste Liddle
    1h1 hour ago
    Celeste Liddle ‏@Utopiana
    So hang on, I’m supposed to be bagging out Shorten for stating that working mums do the heavy lifting when it comes to parenting? #auspol

  26. Briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:07 pm
    asha leu @ #52 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    Shorten’s statement will resonate with very many women who know they carry the load at home and in the workforce!

    Yes, I was thinking much the same thing. (That said, being a childless male and all, I’m always a little wary of trusting own my judgement on these sorts of things too much.)

  27. Asha Leu
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:42 pm
    The One Nation Vote went against the LNP because they had a blanket policy of preferencing against sitting members.

  28. D’oh, stuffed up the quote formatting on that last one. My own post begins at “Yes, I was thinking…”

  29. compact crank @ #117 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:43 pm

    lol

    Cling to that hope, cc. If this is your life-raft, you’re doomed. Labor will attract support from every quarter, just as quickly as it recedes from the LNP. Labor proxies like the G’s will deliver prefs to Labor candidates, come what may. The micros will favour Labor or, at worst, balance out at 50/50, neutralising their net value. The “other” vote is a surreptitious Labor vote for the most part.

  30. Vic:

    This is true, but still, as Asha said it was unfortunate wording. I’d imagine the single dads out there raising kids would be lifting their eyebrows upon hearing that.

  31. Agree the Coalition will unlikely win with a PV of 40% but I doubt Labor will win either on 35%.
    We are in scary times.

    Yup, but our parliamentarians, once people have properly decided on the make up of the HoR and Senate at an election, have a responsibility to try and make that work. If that means minority Govt…well….that’s what people have voted for.

    If a hung situation arises after this election i would see the ALP as being much more able to make it actually work in terms of governance than the Libs. Turnbull will be too crippled and constrained by the “We Wus Wobbed” RW element of the Libs to negotiate on anything unless the cross benches are primarily inhabited by RWNJ’s and that doesn’t bear thinking about.

  32. dtt @ 2:28pm

    The others would include independents. For example, if Tony Windsor polls 40% in New England, that’s about 0.8% for NSW as a whole.

  33. briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:52 pm
    I’ve already called the Election for the ALP on Day 1. Turnbull has screwed the pooch.

  34. I’m hoping for a hung result with no parliament and another election.
    After that – a Senate that follows the ALP mould of ignoring a mandate to cause another three years of utter bollocks so bad that Australians call for a Referendum and get rid of the Senate.

  35. asha leu @ #126 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:50 pm

    Briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:07 pm
    asha leu @ #52 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:05 pm
    Shorten’s statement will resonate with very many women who know they carry the load at home and in the workforce!
    Yes, I was thinking much the same thing. (That said, being a childless male and all, I’m always a little wary of trusting own my judgement on these sorts of things too much.)

    I’ve made it a policy to offer employment whenever I can to females, on the basis they will have fewer opportunities than men. So the ratio would be around 5:1 over the years. I know very well that the women who have children not only have to go to work, they have to shop, attend to the housework, take care of their kids when they’re ill and help them at school, with sport and with everything else. I know, ‘cos one of my tasks is to arrange the work program around the varying routines of my team/s.

    Shorten is acknowledging the lived reality for working families. This can only be a good thing.

  36. Compact Crank:

    Asha Leu
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    he’s simply stating the present reality when it comes to the comparative workloads between mothers and fathers when

    doing the ironing . . . . oh.

    Er, last time I checked, there was a bit more to raising children than just ensuring their clothes are free of creases.

  37. compact crank @ #133 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    briefly
    Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:52 pm
    I’ve already called the Election for the ALP on Day 1. Turnbull has screwed the pooch.

    Credit where credit is due, cc. Labor have out-campaigned Labor from the very first day of this Parliament.

  38. Rossmore turned up earlier today and said that he’d been told, by senior labor figure, that if an election was held last weekend, labor would have won. Rossmore has a habit of making these gnomic statements. But I wouldn’t be surprised it it’s the truth.

  40. McGowan on a hung parliament. Of course her position only becomes relevant if she is re-elected:

    There is one question McGowan is reluctant to answer, and it is the only time she sounds even a little testy. She won’t say which party she would support if the election results in a hung parliament, where no party has a clear majority. It is a hypothetical question, but a relevant one given the tight contest and because the independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott surprised many of their rural constituents when they supported Julia Gillard to form government after the 2010 election.

    “It won’t be a deal,” she says. “I won’t have sold my vote to either political party in return for something in order to get something.” She will look at every piece of legislation that comes up as she has done for the past two and a half years. She will consult with her community, and do what’s best for Indi.

    But which party would she support if it came to a confidence motion, which party would she support to form government?

    “I’m not going to say the what ifs, because I don’t think you guys know the what ifs, I don’t think Australia knows what ifs, and it would be such a dereliction of my duty to be putting myself out two months ahead and doing what ifs.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/28/election-2016-cathy-mcgowan-sophie-mirabella-will-indi-hold-on-to-the-power-of-one

    And of course Mirabella “won’t be interviewed in person”. How on earth do the Liberals imagine reclaiming the seat when they have to hide their own candidate? Amazing.

  41. How Tories like to waste gov money…

    Guardian Australia
    3m
    Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    EU referendum morning briefing: Vote Leave threatens £2.4bn EU bill for Britain

  42. confessions @ #140 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:04 pm

    The very simple thing for McG to do is say she will provide confidence to the Party that can best provide stable Government. She can say she cannot foretell the future, but will know a strong Government when she sees it. She will be asking voters to endorse strength of purpose. No-one will vote against that.

  44. kevin-one-seven @ #138 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:03 pm

    Rossmore turned up earlier today and said that he’d been told, by senior labor figure, that if an election was held last weekend, labor would have won. Rossmore has a habit of making these gnomic statements. But I wouldn’t be surprised it it’s the truth.

    Labor have the raw materials needed for a good win…a weak and divided opponent to which they can contrast sound policies, a strong campaign, and unified team and very good leadership…

  45. OzAlien High Command
    25m25 minutes ago
    OzAlien High Command ‏@kjwrite
    When Malcolm Turnbull needs to make a “I love you Daddy” ad you know @LiberalAus have disastrous internal polling. #auspol #ausvotes

  46. Briefly:

    On Labor out-campaigning the coalition, I agree. But I also wonder if this is because the coalition are so focused on sand-bagging their marginal seats that they can’t give attention to re-claiming seats they once held like Indi.

    From the minute he was preselected ahead of the 2013 election, Rick Wilson was everywhere. You saw him in the street, in the papers every week, on social media, attending the opening of everything from an art exhibition to an envelope (he still does this btw). The Libs never hid him away like Mirabella has been closeted. They even opened a campaign office in Albany and had Dean Smith declare himself ‘Senator for the Great Southern’ and he’d be campaigning down here with Wilson and a plethora of senior Liberals.

    And now Wyatt Roy is in hiding. What on earth is going on?

  47. I’ve spent some time trying to work out if this is satire or not and haven’t reached a verdict. Any input from people who know of the author appreciated.

    Google: Federal election 2016: electing Labor would have dire consequences

  48. victoria @ #145 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 4:13 pm

    OzAlien High Command
    25m25 minutes ago
    OzAlien High Command ‏@kjwrite
    When Malcolm Turnbull needs to make a “I love you Daddy” ad you know @LiberalAus have disastrous internal polling. #auspol #ausvotes

    lol

    When fear is not working, try the sentimental childhood past…this is the opposite of “adult” politics. It is fairy story.

  49. compact crank @ #134 Monday, June 6, 2016 at 3:58 pm

    call for a Referendum and get rid of the Senate.

    Please do…the senate has been more of a problem for the Labor party than the lie-brals

    Think 1975

  50. Briefly:

    That sounds sensible. However I’ve said before that (admittedly from the other side of the country), McGowan doesn’t look like running much of a campaign for re-election. Just going through the motions. Zoomster has confirmed that her Melbourne support base has dissipated, and even the Greens have turned on her over her support for the govt’s boat arrivals policies. Perhaps she’s finding this elected member business all a bit difficult.

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