Newspoll: 50-50

After four successive results showing Labor with its nose in front, Newspoll nudges back to level pegging.

Better late than never, and with apologies for last night’s technical issues, the latest Newspoll result in The Australian overnight recorded a tie on two-party preferred, a slight improvement for the Coalition after Labor’s 51-49 lead in the four previous polls. However, both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 35%, with the Greens also down one to 10%. The combined 15% others vote prompts The Australian to delve into some of what constitutes it: 3% apiece for the Nick Xenophon Team and Family First, 1% each for Palmer United and One Nation. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are little changed, down one on approval to 37% and up one on disapproval to 51%, but Bill Shorten loses last fortnight’s gains with a four point drop on approval to 33% and a three-point increase in disapproval to 52%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 45-30. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1867.

UPDATE: Here’s BludgerTrack updated with the latest Newspoll, which hasn’t made much difference to it:

bludgertrack-2016-06-06

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,333 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 21 of 27
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  1. T’s campaign goes from bad to worse by the day. The pop-up PM, the fb fanboi, is now in flight from the voters. woohoo!

  2. I am sorry, but this harking back to previous govts as an example of the current one is truly delusional. The Howard govt was NOTHING like the current coalition govt. The conditions were different, the personnel were different, the media landscape was different.

    Gillard govt was nothing like the Hawke govt. Nor Rudd/Keating.

    The demographic of Australia was/is completely different.

    It truly amazes me how people try to relate these types of things to each other. Same goes for elections and election campaigns.

  3. Cringeworthy stuff from Turnbull. The MSM is not buying it.

    “We’ve had a Sky peoples’ forum debate, the traditional Press Club debate,” Mr Turnbull said.
    “It is traditional to have three debates so let’s have the third one in an innovative way.
    “We are in 2016, this is the 21st century.
    “This is the time of innovation.
    “This is the most exciting time to be an Australian and to participate in an election debate in the media of our time.”
    Mr Turnbull said the Facebook debate “will engage a vastly wider audience than formats used before”.
    A Labor campaign spokesman said it was the first the party had heard of the online debate proposal but Mr Shorten would accept.
    “There’s no doubt Mr Turnbull isn’t comfortable talking to ordinary Australians,” the spokesman said.
    “It is remarkable that the man who promised the NBN would be finished by the end of 2016 yet has delivered it to less than 20 per cent of Australia would propose an online debate.
    “Having said that, we’re happy to agree to this debate, as well as the one in Brisbane on Wednesday night.
    “Mr Turnbull should do the same.”
    Mr Turnbull has also been resisting attempts by the ABC for him to appear on the Q&A program during the election campaign.
    At the end of Monday night’s episode, Q&A host Tony Jones challenged Mr Turnbull to appear on the program.
    “We see reports today the Prime Minister is looking for a national debate that’s live and interactive with questions from Australian citizens and social media,” Jones said.
    “If only such a thing existed.
    “Prime Minister, Q&A is ready when you are.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-turnbull-rejects-sky-news-decree-in-favour-of-facebook-debate-20160607-gpdf15.html#ixzz4AsB8VlFp

  4. You know, now that Lord Malcolm of the Buffering, Great Communicator and Sage of Wentworth has actually said he’s NOT going to the forum tomorrow, I wonder if the Chaser will take the opportunity to crash the venue with a cardboard cut out so that Bill has more than an empty chair to speak to??

  7. Briefly

    They have completely “screwed the pooch” to quote one of the Lib shills that comes here.

    That’s way to harsh on rummel. He’s an easily diverted swinging voter.

    Certainly not a ‘shill’.

  8. ctar1 @ #1007 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 4:46 pm

    Briefly

    They have completely “screwed the pooch” to quote one of the Lib shills that comes here.

    That’s way to harsh on rummel. He’s an easily diverted swinging voter.
    Certainly not a ‘shill’.

    lol

    (I mean rummel no ill…was thinking more the crank-case himself)

  9. William Kevin and those really interested in psephology!

    I would NOT be expecting very many to vote early. There are just not the prepoll locations, or not here in Brisbane. In the last state elections and at the council there were prepoll booths everywhere. But NOT federally. But it this way – there is ONE or sometimes 2 per electorate, but some electorates are pretty big. The convenient turnout that happened last time in Qld state and local is not going to happen.

  12. Briefly

    (I mean rummel no ill…was thinking more the crank-case himself)

    It’s best to make it clear because rummel has used the ‘screwed the pooch’ terminology.

    He decided he’s voting Labor this time.

  17. Citizen

    Thanks for posting that rubbish from Turnbull. And I agree with zoomster’s cynicism. Mal says it’s traditional to have 3 debates, so that’s what we’re having, but as the Great Innovator, I’ll be hiding behind a computer for the third.

    There was a suspicion that Abbott didn’t write all his own posts and it’s easy to suspect that Turnbull will be’helped’.

  18. GG and Briefly

    Yes and I have seen that prediction. Problem up here is that it is logistically very difficult. It is fine for the city workers, but for the rest of us poor schmucks it is a 30k round trip to the nearest prepoll station.

  20. daretotread
    Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 4:59 pm
    So? Do a postal?
    30 km at 60 km an hour is half an hour – 15 min in each direction. If you are in the Country doing 80-110 it is less.
    Hardly burdensome.

  21. daretotread @ #1018 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    GG and Briefly
    Yes and I have seen that prediction. Problem up here is that it is logistically very difficult. It is fine for the city workers, but for the rest of us poor schmucks it is a 30k round trip to the nearest prepoll station.

    I’m sure you can get a postal…

  22. I love going to my local polling place on election day, talking to those that are handing out Labor how to vote sheets. then going in marking my ballots and placing them in the boxes. As I leave I think how lucky I am to be able to help choose the next government.

  26. WarrenPeace

    I’ve always enjoyed it, too. Everyone doing their bit for democracy, and the local shopkeepers love it. 🙂

  27. Yep, I have forecast an ALP victory and it does not scare me. They will demonstrate over the term that they really are big spending, big taxing and will do nothing to reduce the debt and deficits and will be turfed out for a LNP controlled Senate that will allow an LNP government to get on with the job of showing the Australian Public that only the LNP can be trusted to run the economy properly by encouraging private sector activity and reducing the government sector and taxes.

  28. Talking of Volunteer Firefighters and Unions. This is another reason why the Volunteers are up in arms and very nervous and why Labor is in a pickle. Greens siding with Unions to shaft volunteers, Labor and the Community.

    Greens backdooring union takeovers and kicking volunteers, whilst Libs try and destroy working conditions that makes volunteering harder. Labor have the best case to argue in this fight, but you would not know it with the Andrews Government.

    http://www.rfbaq.org/announcements?tgtPage=news&id=view%2C343

  29. As Turnbull has boycotted the people’s forum tomorrow night in Brisbane, Labor should invite the alternate Liberal leader, Tony Abbott.

  30. http://www.aec.gov.au/voting/ways_to_vote/

    Early vote
    Eligibility requirements
    You can vote early either in person or by post if on election day you:

    are outside the electorate where you are enrolled to vote
    are more than 8km from a polling place
    are travelling
    are unable to leave your workplace to vote
    are seriously ill, infirm or due to give birth shortly (or caring for someone who is)
    are a patient in hospital and can’t vote at the hospital
    have religious beliefs that prevent you from attending a polling place
    are in prison serving a sentence of less than three years or otherwise detained
    are a silent elector
    have a reasonable fear for your safety.
    Early vote in person
    You can vote in person at an early voting centre or any AEC divisional office in the weeks leading to the election.

    A list of early voting centres will be available during the federal election.

    Any divisional office of the AEC….cannot be too hard to find

  31. Of course I can ge at a get a postal. I was talking about pre-poll.

    I recall Briefly and others saying how they expected 30% to prepoll. Thought the same myself until I investigated. if you are going overseas then you will make the effort but not if you just want to save some time on the Saturday. At the State/council elections a lot of people brought their elederly relatives because there was no queue etc. But it will be easier to do it the old fashined way and pick mum and dad up on Saturday for normal voting.

  32. Compact Crank Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:03 pm
    daretotread
    Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 4:59 pm
    So? Do a postal?
    30 km at 60 km an hour is half an hour – 15 min in each direction. If you are in the Country doing 80-110 it is less.
    ****************************************

    yup – take advice from WA’s Speedy Gonzalez …… remember his tears and whiney bitchin’ on PB when he revealed he got pinged for speeding

    “Officer – you can’t be serious – 106 Km/HOUR !!!! ….. I’ve only been on the road 5 friggin’ minutes …. I’m a ex- Duntroon Captain – work for Chevron – have more phones than Hilary or any jerkoff at the UN …. F&*^% Me …. I should be PM … or even POTUS ….

  33. Briefly
    Why are you being such an insufferable nark. Actually my bloody point is that they ARE hard to find. Certainly there is no prepoll that is by any stretch “local.” Now every state/electorate may be different but there is no doubt that here in Brisbane they are few and far between.

  34. I’m glad I found this from Van Badham. I knew a study had been done which backed up Shorten’s statement.

    Bill Shorten has claimed that “the men of Australia rely on the women of Australia to organise the childcare and do the childcare”. He’s right. They do.

    Fairfax reported research from the Australian Institute of Family Studies in 2013 that found women spend almost twice as much time on housework and childcare than men, even when they increase their time in paid employment.

    It isn’t even a value judgment by Shorten; it’s a statement of fact, one recognised by the people it’s about. I believe that men should be more involved in childcare. And – fun fact – so does Bill Shorten, which was exactly the point he was trying to make when the Turnbull Coalition’s crack YouTube team got its digital scissors out to plaster Bill Shorten saying these words on every media channel it could find, and insisted there be a sexism controversy as a result.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/07/a-childcare-announcement-is-sexist-must-be-opposite-day?CMP=soc_3156

  35. compact crank @ #1027 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:07 pm

    Yep, I have forecast an ALP victory and it does not scare me. They will demonstrate over the term that they really are big spending, big taxing and will do nothing to reduce the debt and deficits and will be turfed out for a LNP controlled Senate that will allow an LNP government to get on with the job of showing the Australian Public that only the LNP can be trusted to run the economy properly by encouraging private sector activity and reducing the government sector and taxes.

    lol

    We know the LNP raise more tax, spend more as a share of GDP and borrow more too than Labor.

    Why do they borrow more? Because the increase in public sector dis-saving (deficits) is matched by an increase in private sector saving (surpluses); that is, they transfer assets from the public sector to the private sector. This has been the norm during most years in which the LNP has been in office since 1949. Why do they tax more? Because they increase the burden on working people and lighten it on the most well-off. Why do they spend more? Because they privatise, out-source and allocate spending to the most-well-off.

    The LNP plunder the public sector. It is their gig. Labor try to use it for the benefit of the community as a whole.

  36. Perhaps you can investigate in YOUR electorates. Is the relatively limited location of prepoll sites nationwide.

  37. daretotread @ #1033 Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    Briefly
    Why are you being such an insufferable nark. Actually my bloody point is that they ARE hard to find. Certainly there is no prepoll that is by any stretch “local.” Now every state/electorate may be different but there is no doubt that here in Brisbane they are few and far between.

    I dunno where you’re enrolled..the AEC site says you can lodge a pre-poll vote at their divisional office. If that is difficult, then a postal vote is also offered.

  39. CC

    Yup I will zoom along at 60Km/hr in all those 40Km school zones. Traffic lights? What traffic lights officer?

  43. I’m so passionate about Volunteering that I spend my own hard earned money to do it, I give up family time to do it, I negotiate with work to do it when required.

    I will vote for the party that support’s me the best to do it, because that supports my community the best. It’s cheap to support us, it feels good to support us and there is thousands of votes in it to support us, particularly in the rurual/regional areas.

    Apart from the Andrews Vic Government, Labor has done that best in the past. Come on Shorten.

  44. “As Turnbull has boycotted the people’s forum tomorrow night in Brisbane, Labor should invite the alternate Liberal leader, Tony Abbott.”

    GENIUS IDEA.

    Add if Tony’s not available, then any other post-election leadership contender would also be welcome 😀

  45. Poor old Phoney – must have really suffered some major trauma at some stage. There’s treatment for that. According to the audience on QandA last night the NBN will cure your mental illness.

  46. “How will questions be selected in this Facebook forum?”

    No doubt Menzies House will be more than willing to provide them:
    – Mr Turnbull, what was the best thing about your father?
    -What did growing up in poverty teach you about life?
    -What’s with that crappy logo, sorry I mean who designed that wonderful logo?

  47. “Traditional to have three debates”.
    I can’t remember any recent elections where there were more than two debates, and quite a few where there was only one. Perhaps there were three in 1984?
    Can anyone with a better memory than me please help.

  48. Briefly
    Not so in Ryan. As I say they are all about 15 K away. Also NOT in the usual travel/shopping zone.
    We all operate in a sort of locality zone – the trip from home to work/school, to go to the city or shopping or hobbies or to visit friends. These are if you like the daily, weekly or monthly locality zones. I think any thing up to a monthly zone is OK. In other words roughly once per month you visit that area for shopping, hobbies friends etc. The prepoll sites in Ryan are more in your once every year/three year zones.

  49. briefly
    Tuesday, June 7, 2016 at 5:15 pm
    Absolutely noting wrong with having a high Tax to GDP ratio when it is caused by high profitability, capital gains and growing incomes – that’ something to be proud of and allows for repayment of debt and tax cuts – like Howard and Costello were able to do.

    It’s bad when it is caused by raising tax rates and adding more taxes – like the ALP does.

  50. Sorry I should say there are prepoll centrs in the city, but at $11 for a bus fare or $25 to park, not too many will make a special trip.

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